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 Clearing stocks before the coming crash, what have I missed out in the analysis?

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Davidtcf
post Jul 15 2022, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 15 2022, 11:17 AM)
I continued to hold-on to my SG REITs. They still paying me dividends, tho' prices have dropped. My total portfolio is still in the green,...  hovering above 33%... I will see more development in the coming qtrly reports to be announced this month and the next. SPH REIT's looks good.
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Ya good to diversify and not focus on US only.
TSplumberly
post Jul 15 2022, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Jul 14 2022, 06:59 PM)
Did you manage to sell all before December 2021 / January 2022? That was when the crash happened.

The moment inflation was announced as high, and Fed decided to raise interest rates, people started panic selling.
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I sold mine a few weeks ago. Not due to the dip you mentioned but the uneasy gut feeling now.
TSplumberly
post Jul 15 2022, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 15 2022, 11:17 AM)
I continued to hold-on to my SG REITs. They still paying me dividends, tho' prices have dropped. My total portfolio is still in the green,...  hovering above 33%... I will see more development in the coming qtrly reports to be announced this month and the next. SPH REIT's looks good.
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You have done very well. With covid impact, REIT would be taking the punches. But you still managed to do very well. What is your secret? Ha. Picked the right & strong ones, I guess.
Boon3
post Jul 15 2022, 08:27 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jan 1 2021, 11:48 AM)
Hindsight 20/20, but seemed like staying vested was the right choice for 2020.

Happy new year everyone.
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laugh.gif

The main point was selling based on assumption that the market will crash was a pretty bad idea. Proven time and time again.

Initial post was Aug 2018......


whistling.gif




rotloi
post Jul 15 2022, 08:30 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Aug 23 2018, 10:19 AM)
Plan to clear most of my stocks in the next few months before the coming crash. Did some analysis to help in my decision making later.

Appreciate feedback on things I over looked etc in my analysis.

Assume 4-6% pa growth and 20-30% drop in price during the crash, it will take 3-4 yrs for the price to recover.

Instead of wasting the 3-4 years for the price to recover, won't it be better if I sell out before the crash, put that money in FD etc. That is, a positive net gain during the 3-4 years.

I know this is too idealistic but what have I done wrong?

Yes, I do not have a crystal ball to know when it will crash. But a crash WILL happen. Just a matter of time.

Appreciate a constructive feedback/discussion. Thanks.

P/S I think I put this in the wrong place. Should be in the discussion section. Can someone help me to transfer it? Or tell me how to? Thanks.
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QUOTE(azbro @ Jul 15 2022, 08:11 AM)
If got loads of money, not only amoi, but countries accept you
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Wow you predicted 2020 march crash ?? Amazing bro

Boon3
post Jul 15 2022, 08:43 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Dec 31 2020, 04:27 PM)
LOL. My fav thread in lowyat investment forum. Is back.. 🤣

Happy New Year everyone, esp TS!

Hope for an even better year next year.
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laugh.gif

What a troll you are... tongue.gif



And there.... Only in stock markets.. ppl only see what they want to see..

whistling.gif
TSplumberly
post Jul 16 2022, 08:52 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 15 2022, 08:43 PM)
laugh.gif

What a troll you are... tongue.gif
And there.... Only in stock markets..  ppl only see what they want to see..

whistling.gif
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Maybe. But I believe in the saying,

luck is when preparation meets opportunity

That has benefited me many times in my life, career, health, finance, etc.

What I did earlier before the 2020 crash is one of my life's highlights, and I am proud of it. Saved me a lot of money.

P/S Thanks for following this thread, sifu.
Jitty
post Jul 16 2022, 09:01 AM

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CPI PPI Inflation all data come out dah.
sign showing macam going into recession.

can DCA further and buy the deep now?

or should wait for more?

personally I had been keep on DCA a bit by a bit every month.
kelvinfixx
post Jul 16 2022, 09:07 AM

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Me: "You cannot predict the future"
AthrunIJ
post Jul 16 2022, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(Jitty @ Jul 16 2022, 09:01 AM)
CPI PPI Inflation all data come out dah.
sign showing macam going into recession.

can DCA further and buy the deep now?

or should wait for more?

personally I had been keep on DCA a bit by a bit every month.
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Yep,I will continue to dca even double down
Cubalagi
post Jul 16 2022, 03:35 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 15 2022, 08:43 PM)
laugh.gif

What a troll you are... tongue.gif
And there.... Only in stock markets..  ppl only see what they want to see..

whistling.gif
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Haha..that was a post from Dec 2020! 😂

Nowadays I'm also laying low stock investment wise. Still too much danger to be adding positions.




Boon3
post Jul 16 2022, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 16 2022, 03:35 PM)
Haha..that was a post from Dec 2020! 😂

Nowadays I'm also laying low stock investment wise. Still too much danger to be adding positions.
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Hahaha.... first posting was on Aug 2018.

Can I use SP500 as a gauge? ( would you accuse me of doing a cheat? tongue.gif)

SP500 was around 2878 plus or minus in Aug 2018.

SP500 today (err... has the market really crash? tongue.gif) is 3863. rolleyes.gif
Yes, market is still HIGHER today compared to Aug 2018!!

How la? Good strategy? innocent.gif



Sell before market crash and then buy back after market crash....
and then.... repeat?

sounds so like a wet dream, no?




Boon3
post Jul 17 2022, 09:03 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 16 2022, 04:54 PM)
Hahaha.... first posting was on Aug 2018.

Can I use SP500 as a gauge? ( would you accuse me of doing a cheat? tongue.gif)

SP500 was around 2878 plus or minus in Aug 2018.

SP500 today (err... has the market really crash? tongue.gif)  is 3863.  rolleyes.gif
Yes, market is still HIGHER today compared to Aug 2018!!

How la? Good strategy?  innocent.gif
Sell before market crash and then buy back after market crash....
and then.... repeat?

sounds so like a wet dream, no?
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And I simply believe there must be better strategy to buy/sell stocks.

When one predicts the market direction, one is simply gambling poorly.

Pictures tends to tell better....

Say if I had bought Microsoft BASED ON ITS STRONGER EARNINGS before 2018...

this is how Microsoft has fared since then.......

user posted image


yup, imagine the devastating impact on watching a perfectly good stock run away and the tons of profits run away....just because I adapted the sell before the market strategy.

Hansel
post Jul 17 2022, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jul 15 2022, 07:17 PM)
You have done very well. With covid impact, REIT would be taking the punches. But you still managed to do very well. What is your secret? Ha. Picked the right & strong ones, I guess.
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Emm,... I'm not sure if my answer sounds logical,... or perhaps too simple as an answer. I'd just say : I BOUGHT EARLY INTO THE RIGHT STOCKS.

I'll give some egs,... off the top of my head,... my holding prices for the following ctrs : PLife REIT (2.16), FLCT (1.02), MLT (1... sorry, I forgot, but today it's still green in the 40's%),... and UMS, after many rounds of Bonus Issues, 56cts,...... and I bought quite substantially into these ctrs vs my total portfolio size.

I do have some crts starting to turn red, namely Sasseur REIT, CLCT,... and I'm eyeing these to average down.
Hansel
post Jul 17 2022, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(Jitty @ Jul 16 2022, 09:01 AM)
CPI PPI Inflation all data come out dah.
sign showing macam going into recession.

can DCA further and buy the deep now?

or should wait for more?

personally I had been keep on DCA a bit by a bit every month.
*
Just sharing some thots this morning,... kind of being in the mood to write this monirng :-

1) Recession is determined by 2 successive drops in GDP rdgs.
2) Inflation is mainly determined by CPI rdgs every second week of a mth.

Feds don't relate the above two rdgs..

The mkt seems to be finding every opportunity it can to move up.

I think,... this time,... things may be different.


sgh
post Jul 17 2022, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 16 2022, 11:20 AM)
Yep,I will continue to dca even double down
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Back before I know of US fractional shares DCA down is expensive for a full share. With fractional it is much more bearable and doable. Last Friday quick green after several days prior red indicate average down does have its merits but it also depend on which individual stock you buy.

I think fractional shares is a good concept if only all other countries exchange follow same.
AthrunIJ
post Jul 17 2022, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Jul 17 2022, 11:56 AM)
Back before I know of US fractional shares DCA down is expensive for a full share. With fractional it is much more bearable and doable. Last Friday quick green after several days prior red indicate average down does have its merits but it also depend on which individual stock you buy.

I think fractional shares is a good concept if only all other countries exchange follow same.
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Oh I am currently on etf only because of buying power.

Probably when better than get some individual stocks
sgh
post Jul 17 2022, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 17 2022, 11:57 AM)
Oh I am currently on etf only because of buying power.

Probably when better than get some individual stocks
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I see. When I say fractional shares it applies to both ETF and individual stock. For some US individual stock quite obvious to get when down e.g AAPL MSFT GOOGL. As long as you see ppl around you all using their product and services it should be profitable for at least 2-3 years.

But take note as capital is so low for fractional shares IBKR 35 cents per trade will be high if you perform many trades. Go for 0 comm fee brokers. I check last month I got at least 100 fractional shares trade and if I multiply by 35 cents wow. I am using Webull Spore if you want to know the broker I use for fractional shares trade
AthrunIJ
post Jul 17 2022, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Jul 17 2022, 12:07 PM)
I see. When I say fractional shares it applies to both ETF and individual stock. For some US individual stock quite obvious to get when down e.g AAPL MSFT GOOGL. As long as you see ppl around you all using their product and services it should be profitable for at least 2-3 years.

But take note as capital is so low for fractional shares IBKR 35 cents per trade will be high if you perform many trades. Go for 0 comm fee brokers. I check last month I got at least 100 fractional shares trade and if I multiply by 35 cents wow. I am using Webull Spore if you want to know the broker I use for fractional shares trade
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Based on my buying power, I do not need to buy fractional shares. So I am good on that.

And yes I agree on the fees. For now I don't like to have too many platforms. I might change in the future.

Let's get better for our investment future mate
TSplumberly
post Jul 17 2022, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(Jitty @ Jul 16 2022, 09:01 AM)
CPI PPI Inflation all data come out dah.
sign showing macam going into recession.

can DCA further and buy the deep now?

or should wait for more?

personally I had been keep on DCA a bit by a bit every month.
*
QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 16 2022, 11:20 AM)
Yep,I will continue to dca even double down
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Heard about DCA in the early years when I was into unit trusts but did not practice it.

Mind sharing why you think DCA is the way to go? Maybe I overlooked something important. Thanks.

To me, it is a sales invention by the UT industry to generate sales (and thus commissions for the agents) every month. They don't have to do much and get monthly commissions. Good job. UT agents, please don't launch nuclear missiles at me. Read a few books where the authors are anti DCA.

Yes, I have seen graphs illustrating the positive gains from using DCA. It works in some cases. But I feel it is better to just stop buying, and save the money till you see a "confirmed" uptrend. Then you will get a lot more at a cheaper price. No one can predict where is the dip bottom. But with some study, it is possible to gauge with some certainty where it has turned for the better. A combination of moving average, Bollinger band, Coppock curve, RSI, etc., etc. Of course, nothing is 100% certain. If WW3 breaks out after the uptrend has started, 99% of the shares will head south.

My 2 cents (which is worth less now with increases in prices).

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