That's why I said earlier, we kenot use normal eye to see abnormal country one, proper countries like HK & Singapore, their house serves a function as shelter, passive income generator and wealth accumulation
in Malaysia, apart fr sheltering, it is more to an insurance to hedge against inflation, currency depreciation. So, some people say if rental kenot cover the installment, the house owner wiill be forced to sell their property at cheaper price, ideally the mkt mechanism shd work that way, but one must realise that certain property owners & investors dun care at all, we used to see many houses left it vacant without renting for more than > 5 yrs, and no owners selling it, why?
For me, if my shop/apt rental can fetch nett yield of 3% is enough, I know rental will increase in long run (15-30 yrs). Unless major incident happen, otherwise the house installments are fixed for the whole tenure, but rental not likely to drop b'coz inflation, it won't be surprise prawn mee cost you RM50/bowl in 2040, shop rental could be easily RM30K/mth (example in Puchong) by then...

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Added on April 18, 2011, 7:30 pmYes, we just hv a discussion, at 1st we say Iskandar sure die one but we change our statement now, kenot under estimate Singapore's effect, Toooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo strong!!

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Apr 18 2011, 07:30 PM

the way i see it,
buying properties are good for hedging against inflation but not a good investment in long run. Property price now are way too high & abnormal even for 5 figure income.
As time pass, properties will lost it value if
1. Better transport (why need to buy KV area when can travel fast & efficient like in Japan)
2. Education level improve (Improve knowledge & income but will produce less offspring or even happy being single = demand low)
3. Technology advancement (If in 10 years, technology give u benefit to work form home but with no drop of performance)

All these thing can happens or already happening now...it just need time to be a norms going forward


Remember this "a good properties investment only realised if someone wanted to make become a home"

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Apr 18 2011, 10:10 PM

MY OPINION- FOOD, DRINK AND SHELTER ARE AMONGST THE MUST THINGS TO HUMAN BEING.

FOOD PRICE INCREASE;
DRINK AS WELL;
WHY NOT SHELTER?

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 18 2011, 10:34 PM

Point 1 and 2 you are referring to Japan but point 3 is not bcos japanese still obligated to work in office.. I agree country like japan, property is not a good investment as it depreciate. The one that hold the value is the land...

But this is Malaysia.. transportation is still lack behind by half a century..

Malaysian still very productive and no sign of population shrinking.. even though if we reached stagnant growth, urban migration still play an important key factor in urban population increase, particularly Klang Valley.. you dont often hear ppl migrate from KL to Pahang to work, all ppl around you flock into KL from all over the place..

Your point number 3 has little to no impact.. even retirees wants to leave an a conducive environment and good amenities.. choosing a place to stay is not always want to be near to work place but some ppl prefer to move to suburbs, get a landed prop and less hectic environment.. Look at Mahsing, Gamuda, SP setia all are aiming suburbs... there is still a demand for props at conducive environment and you can work from home at the same time..

The way i see, ppl are always upgrading life style, looking for a better environment as time passes by.. apartment -> terrace -> semi-D -> Bungalow.. from kampung to suburbs, or from urban to subsurbs.. As long as ppl are still moving around, there is always opportunity..

firstly i dun trust all these charts cos it is always been generalized and not reflect the truths

eg if u refer to jpph data which ho chin soon always used, KL properties dropped in 1997, but i mentioned in my earlier post. i'd accumulated all my $ to anticipate for good buy near my choice areas but cant found any. the data can be misled as many prop sapu cheap by danaharta during 97-98 whihc may distorted the chart. u can ask around who is selling cheap during 97. maybe a few cases but u cant generalized to all prop in KL.

US - pls compare KL with new york eg mahattan area, LA is too big...maybe we can compare LA as JB? even JB town eg taman pelangi, sentosa, century is doing ok during crisis.

japan- not a good example coz Yen caught in wrong monetory policy due to US intervention. we also discussed b4 that Japan prop price in term of USD is still firm. yen appreciated 3x (from 320 to 80) while prop drop abt half or max 1/3 (pls refer to earlier posts for Japan prop)

HK and Taiwan - the yoyo chart is refer to price change, your given prop price index chart is still show way up. btw, can we compare only taipei CBD?

i agreed that share also the same, but i m not good in stock market that is why i opt for prop investment to hedge against inflation (long term)
some blue chip share can perform badly eg MAS,TNB etc ( i m not expert but i know many good stock perform badly in long term)

also it is better to invest prop in prime/CBD area. coz not so good location prop always has higher pressure to sell lower price when bad economy.

the way i see it,
buying properties are good for hedging against inflation but not a good investment in long run. Property price now are way too high & abnormal even for 5 figure income.
As time pass, properties will lost it value if

1. Better transport (why need to buy KV area when can travel fast & efficient like in Japan)

UNFORTUNETALY MALAYSIA IS NOT JAPAN, JAPAN IS NOT MALAYSIA. EVEN THOUGH WITH BETTER TRANSPORTATION, PROPERTY PRICE STILL WILL BE HEADING NORTH, JUST LIKE SINGAPORE, AND HONGKONG. IT IS NO FUN USING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IN MALAYSIA AT LEAST NOW AND ALSO FORESEEABLE IN FUTURE.

[COLOR=blue]SG & HK are diff in a sense of size limitation, you just can't grow land. If you are old enough, you will know in year 1970-80, stay in klang n work in KL are impossible but now, some are stay in Seremban work in KL is do-able. Better road connectivity & cars can drive faster are here. Things will improve in future, maybe later but definitely will arrive.[COLOR=blue]

2. Education level improve (Improve knowledge & income but will produce less offspring or even happy being single = demand low)

BUYING PROPERTY NOT LIMITED TO MARRIED COUPLE. EVEN NOW SINGLE / "DIAMOND WONG TIGER" (LOL) ALSO KEEP BUYING THEIR NEST. THUS IN FUTURE, MORE AND MORE SMALL NEST (400SF TO 600SF) WILL BE BUILT. FIRST, TO COPE WITH HIGH COST. SECOND, TO MAKE IT MORE AFFORDABLE TO PEOPLE.
[COLOR=blue]I don't about you, if the trend continue i believe everyone will own more than 1 properties. remember only 1 person or 1 family need A home. A couple can stay 1 home, not 2 house. IF 20M become a couple, then it means 10M homes, not 20M.[COLOR=blue]


3. Technology advancement (If in 10 years, technology give u benefit to work form home but with no drop of performance)

ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ALWAYS WELCOME AND MAKE PEOPLE LIFE BETTER. HOWEVER, WHETHER ONE PERFORM OR NOT, HAVE TO DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL EFFORTS. HOWEVER, I DON'T SEE THIS WILL AFFECT HOUSE DEMAND?
[COLOR=blue] Like i said, in '70 ppl do biz within township, '80 & '90 between states & currently now, we are doing biz international (biz no longer need big big warehouse to store products, almost all using JIT method if possible)
Most of my clients don't need A Class Office Locationeven they can afford it.
They can be a shoplot in suburb area, nearer to the place they live & the staff live. There are already some MNC option to do 3days at home 2 day at office arrangement for non-essential operation staffs. [COLOR=blue]

All these thing can happens or already happening now...it just need time to be a norms going forward
Remember this "a good properties investment only realised if someone wanted to make become a home"






MY CONCLUSION- FOOD, DRINK AND SHELTER ARE AMONGST THE MUST THINGS TO HUMAN BEING.

FOOD PRICE INCREASE;
DRINK AS WELL;
WHY NOT SHELTER?[COLOR=blue] Shelter needed is still for A home, not 100 properties [COLOR=blue]

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Added on April 18, 2011, 11:02 pmif you do ask around those already retired ppls, if you will notice they want to downgrade to smaller house as all their kids grow up & move out. Reason = simpler to take care the house

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Apr 18 2011, 11:02 PM

yeah....You now A HOME, then your children = Many HOMES

when we old time coming, old folk HOME is waiting for us!..LOL

p/s: I still see my boss purchased BIG HOME

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 18 2011, 11:12 PM

spot on... you say it yourself.. small houses also an opportunity.. as i mention, as long as ppl still moving around, buying bigger or smaller house are also opportunities, thus property market will never die..

That's why you are over reacting lor, cityboy. Because you own a few real estate property in the hope it will always go up and up...

This will not be the case la. Talking back about China, haven't you heard that the real estate prices in 1st tier city, that is cities such as your Shanghai and Beijing, not your ulu-ulu cities, prices are also coming down already... do your research la, not talk with your die die mentality that property will always go up one. Even with the ulu-ulu places in China, do you think they plan to buy that cities and keep it empty for 10 years before people moving in, this is a clear sign of property speculation and you still want to argue against it...and Dongguan is not ulu-ulu like you always like to say la, why the shopping mall is 99% empty since completed in 2005??? No developer or buyers plan to buy a place that is completed and left empty for years...would you want to buy it? Go buy it la, with your philosophy, keep it for 40 years la, it SURE go up one...

If you live buy that mentality, then why don't you go to US and sapu all the property. I know one suburb in LA called Victorville. Before the GFC at it's peak, a house there cost USD350k, now selling USD40k also nobody buy. By the way, Victorville is not your ulu-ulu place it is around 45 minutes drive to LA city. Go check it out in the internet. Buy now and keep for like you say 40 years, it will sure go up one... buy low sell high mah, this is the low time to buy, why don't buy. I'm sure you are some sort of working professional, USD40k cash is not a problem to you. Why don't you go and buy now and keep it in the long run to hedge against the inflation? Don't try to talk up the market just because you own a few real estate.

dude, lucerne was trying to debate with some of the information he quoted.
you too can choose to respond similiarly but you opted for sort of a shouting match cum taunting.
everybody is entitled to their own opinions lah. so just chill.
i believe, in properties, there's always ups and downs. in fact it may very well occur simultaneously except in different location.
chill, dude.

The above statement that anytime is a good time to buy properties is incorrect. Historically properties rise about 5% in Malaysia. For the past few years it has been much more. At this moment properties are very expensive and trending far above the historical trendline. Unless wages also start to dramatically rise property prices will go back to it at some point.

So let's say you buy an overvalued property now at 500k. And let's say the price doesn't drop and in 10 years it is still worth 500k. But in real terms (due to the inflation you mentioned, let's say a very conservative 3%) it will only be worth 368k.

Talking about a genuine home owner, when one buys another house to upgrade/downgrade, he also dumps a house in the market too. Therefore we can't use this as a means to indicate that props will continue to sell.

When a smaller house, is changed to a bigger house, this means that we have a bigger appetite for land, which indicates a market demand. But like what iceman said, in the end, we end up dumping all our props and downgrade. This offsets it.

What this means is that the land and materials that was needed to build a bungalow, can be used to build 3 smaller houses. Which therefore means, less prop demand.

depend on which kind of boss you talking about
if he is yr immediate superior & well verse in financial planning, then why not buy if he see the needs to use bigger home
if he the boss of the company & for investment purpose, from what i know now, most of the bosses that i came to know are using the company cashflow to "goreng" properties & this is a dangerous situation for you as an employee. If his biz got into trouble, i think you will know who will suffer first & last.

Well for point 3, office rent will suffer not house. cost cutting drives bosses to allow employeees to work from home

exactly, all those property investors/guru think that properties expired/ceased to existed by the time they sell

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Added on April 19, 2011, 9:46 ambut do you think i need to buy my home near to the work place now.

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Apr 19 2011, 09:46 AM

well said

the fact is simple. We need only a home, not 30 homes. When one bought 30 units in one shot, it is clear this is for speculation, that's why the high vacancy rate.

But we must understand that prices can be easily pushed up by speculating activities just like stock market and anything that is not supported by strong fundamental could collapse easily.

No worries, bro.

my boss not that kind of speculator in residential properties.

anyway, feeling sick to predict/gestimate when property market will burst. No ending discussion and no new points of views.

i like ur point above.. if that is the future trend.. then happy life for me.. i can buy house in seremban [freakin cheap]
then work there nice one.. new point ! new point !

Those purchased 30 homes are taking business risks.

Not many can afford to buy house, however, those still need shelter to cover their heads. Rent a house/room/shared-room are their options.

Agreed..+1