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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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soongkm
post Mar 22 2011, 12:24 PM

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Hi guys, new to this site. Just want to now what is a reasonable price to buy Mont Kiara Laman Suria condo for 1178 sq ft in mid floor? What is the price per square feet? Would be very greatful if all the sifus here can advise.

Thanks!


Added on March 22, 2011, 12:27 pmI meant, what is the reasonable price per square feet in Mont Kiara Laman Suria now???

Thanks.

This post has been edited by soongkm: Mar 22 2011, 12:27 PM
soongkm
post Mar 22 2011, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(totila @ Mar 22 2011, 12:30 PM)
actual value -> get a valuation frm bank.
ppl here also got their info frm where u can easily found, such as iproperty, homeguru those site..
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How do you get a valuation from bank? Contact the bank and ask them? Or have to pay them to do a valuation report? If yes, how much?

Please advise.

Thanks.

soongkm
post Mar 22 2011, 01:28 PM

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QUOTE(airline @ Mar 22 2011, 01:16 PM)
i wouldnt pay more than rm450k. considering the location and jam.
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thanks airline for your opinion!


Added on March 22, 2011, 1:33 pm
QUOTE(totila @ Mar 22 2011, 01:15 PM)
Thanks totila!

This post has been edited by soongkm: Mar 22 2011, 01:33 PM
soongkm
post Mar 23 2011, 05:31 AM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Mar 22 2011, 09:17 PM)
sure boh?  laugh.gif
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No la, in this "real world in malaysia" real estate prices will always go up up up .....never come down one... our beloved superpm got all those ETP, PPT, TTP, TFK blah blah blah to keep this economy going up up and away!

So no la, where got crash one la. Waiting for a property crash? no such thing in malaysia one lah....the only direction for real estate prices in malaysia to go is up up and away...just like superman! Because we got the superpm with all those super jargon such as ETP,NEP, PPT, TTP TFK to keep malaysia going to be a very developed super sophisikasi society of the Super First World by 2020 and we are going down the final lap of very "exciting" time to become a super developed first class nation.

So mana ada property crash...macam-macam ada tapi tiada property crash in malaysia...never will happen one, because we got superpm just like superman to keep the property market and macam-macam things under the matahari in malaysia to go up up and away!


Added on March 23, 2011, 6:50 am
QUOTE(soongkm @ Mar 23 2011, 05:31 AM)
No la, in this "real world in malaysia" real estate prices will always go up up up .....never come down one...  our beloved superpm got all those ETP, PPT, TTP, TFK blah blah blah to keep this economy going up up and away! 

So no la, where got crash one la.  Waiting for a property crash? no such thing in malaysia one lah....the only direction for real estate prices in malaysia to go is up up and away...just like superman!  Because we got the superpm with all those super jargon such as ETP,NEP, PPT, TTP TFK to keep malaysia going to be a very developed super sophisikasi society of the Super First World by 2020 and we are going down the final lap of very "exciting" time to become a super developed first class nation.

So mana ada property crash...macam-macam ada tapi tiada property crash in malaysia...never will happen one, because we got superpm just like superman to keep the property market and macam-macam things under the matahari in malaysia to go up up and away!
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up up and away... but dun know which way la...just need to see which way is going...

This post has been edited by soongkm: Mar 23 2011, 06:50 AM
soongkm
post Mar 23 2011, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 23 2011, 11:10 AM)
yes, this is probably the case. who would call for a crash while trying to sell off at high price? tongue.gif
the new ones being gobbled up now are probably mostly by first time gorengers or those who have offloaded the bulk of older ones.
obviously the gurus will say it's portfolio management, long term, anytime is good time, etc...
to the ordinary folk looking for a home and not profit from a transaction, it's a nightmare indeed.

but whoever buy and sell does not change what is to come next, only that dev-banks-lawyers-land off-taxman get more income - the sure winners.
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when do you think is a good time to buy those older Mont Kiara condos such as Vista Kiara? Is end of this year a good time? How much is the market rate per sq ft in Vista Kiara now?

Thanks.
soongkm
post Mar 23 2011, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Mar 23 2011, 11:14 AM)
when do you think is a good time to buy those older Mont Kiara condos such as Vista Kiara?  Is end of this year a good time?  How much is the market rate per sq ft in Vista Kiara now?

Thanks.
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Any comment on Vista Kiara market price now? Thanks! notworthy.gif
soongkm
post Mar 23 2011, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 23 2011, 01:58 PM)
bro, this thread is meant for gen discussion on prop climate.
details on specific props, better ask in separate thread. maybe some can help...
if buying for own stay, as long as you like it, can afford, decision is easy.
to goreng or expect high rental, diff story la... mk itself is past its prime, think you need not rush, imo.
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Yes, bro. You are right. Thank you for sharing your opinion. Much appreciated! thumbup.gif
soongkm
post Apr 6 2011, 08:31 AM

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Downtrend in property loans
By THEAN LEE CHENG
leecheng@thestar.com.my

Higher deposit to curb market speculation seems effective

PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara's move to require house buyers to pay a higher deposit seems to be weeding out speculation in the property market, some analysts said.

Its monthly statistical bulletin last week showed that for fourth consecutive months since November, the number of loan applications to buy residential property has reduced.

On Nov 2 last year, the central bank announced a 70% loan-to-value (LTV) cap on a borrower's third and subsequent house-financing facility, meaning that these buyers would have to fork out 30% of the purchase price.

The move was prompted by fears of a retail credit bubble fuelling speculation on the prices of residential properties. Certain areas reported price spikes that are indicative of speculation and multiple-unit purchases by individuals.

However, analysts cautioned that the data was not conclusive.

Some analysts said the decline in the first couple of months might be seasonal and believed data from March would accurately show the effects of the LTV rule.

RAM Rating Services Bhd's head of financial institutions ratings Promod Dass said: “Household financing facilities now account for approximately 55% (or RM489bil) of the local banking system's loans, with loans for the purchase of residential property comprising about half (RM238bil) of total household loans.

“Although the full impact of this move has yet to filter through given the short time since its implementation, loan applications for residential property purchases have started slowing down in the last two months of 2010 and January.

“The heftier down payment because of the more stringent 70% LTV cap is aimed at discouraging excessive over-leveraging in the property market. While the early signs are that this move has weeded out a degree of speculation in the residential property market, it will take at least six more months to gain a conclusive feel on whether such speculation has been curbed,” Promod said in an e-mail.

Malaysian Rating Corp vice-president and head of financial institutions ratings Anandakumar Jegarasasingam said the LTV ruling was insufficient to control the level of household sector debt in the economy or an unhealthy property price appreciation.

“Any individual who is purchasing a third residential property is either likely to be affluent or a reasonably savvy property speculator. If property speculation is to be curbed, the authorities should perhaps explore more direct measures involving taxes and prudential restrictions,” he said.

Another issue was whether the current trend of lower applications for housing loans could eventually lead to a softening of the property market.

ECM Libra said in its banking report yesterday that “residential property and non-residential loans approved have shrunk and are set to continue their downtrend.”

ECM Libra's analyst Bernard Ching said “loans growth are expected to taper off due to our expectation that property sales growth may slow down later this year as a result of the imposition of loan-to-value cap.”

Another analyst said the drop in housing loan applications, and the reduction in the number of loans approved, would eventually lead to a softening of the property market. “Increasingly, developers will find it more difficult to push sales and this will lead to a softening,” he said.

***************************************************************************************************************************************

Price will start falling! Property owners, dream on that prices will go up up and up!!!
soongkm
post Apr 6 2011, 09:14 AM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Apr 6 2011, 09:00 AM)
ya
i got a colleague
bought a 16*65 2 story terrace at Serdang 9 months ago with $183k
now the neighbourhood got ppl sold at $330k!!!
then his neighbour also want to sell now at $350k (with soem innovation)
imagine from $180k to $350k in 9 months in Serdang
crazy...

another colleague bot a $450k at puchong far far (i dont know the name)
now say got value at $600k
imagine a 20*65 terrace can sell at 600k
incredible

dont know how true the market is
is it really demand???
unsure.gif
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These are the last batch of people "up car" (in cantonese) already. See how they offload they stocks in next 6 months. Some of these uncle and aunties don't follow the macro situations, their "mood" is always 6 months behind, so kena la!
soongkm
post Apr 6 2011, 09:34 AM

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And also, this time the Sarawak Election will also have some impact on the property scene in Malaysia.

Ok, BN is expected to lose more seats this time to PR. And if the more shocking news, if BN lose 2/3 majority in Sarawak, it will create an "uncertain" environment in the economy. I bet alot of developers will not launch their projects if BN gets unfavorable result in Sarawak election. And if BN gets unfavorable result in Sarawak election, BN will put off the GE later, maybe till early next year, this will create more uncertainty for the investors and developers. Alot of decisions on project launching and property investments will be put off after the GE. Well that's my view.
soongkm
post Apr 6 2011, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Apr 6 2011, 09:52 AM)
IF BN maintain their good result....do u think is the right time to buy the property.....
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I think if BN maintain it's good result, which means BN has to do landslide win in Sarawak compared to 2006 result, (which i think is impossible), i think those investors and those big boys developers will have more confident and continue their "ponzi scheme" of property. Yes, i think price will go up, if BN wins big in Sarawak.
soongkm
post Apr 6 2011, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 6 2011, 10:09 AM)
what say u on 308 election when BN lose 2/3 majority to PR but prop price up up??
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six months after the 308 in 2008, property prices start falling what. It fell from August 2008 for the next 12 months. Of course, you can say is GFC la. but still local businesses lost confident, investors starts to lose confident, all go overseas to invest, alot of people emigrating after 308 all contributes to the fall of property prices 6 months after 308.

soongkm
post Apr 7 2011, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Apr 7 2011, 03:20 PM)
suitable unit might be a concern...
but since 20k for two weeks for sure
right price is not a concern at all laa
mesti up and menang
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wah lau, RM20k 2 weeks, average RM10k per week. one year got 52 weeks, so one year later untung RM520k, What are you waiting for??? Go for it!!!
soongkm
post Apr 7 2011, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Apr 7 2011, 04:22 PM)
wahahaha, pls count me in. i dont want to miss this.
CKHong where are you? I think this one you hard hard also need to buy. Join us!
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Hahahah....ya lor, join us la. Let's listen to all those property owners / speculators to try to have us believe, that it will go up and up and up....These property owners will like us to believe that it will go up and buy buy buy....

Dream on la, property speculators. Your days are numbered, this will be know as start of the end...prices will adjust by end of this year. People don't be fooled by these property owners, developers and real estate people! Hold your money boys...look forward to "shopping" trip on property by end of this year and early next year....

From here, the only way for property prices is SOUTH!

Don't get me wrong, i am not a bargain hunter, i am a property owner, but i am just being honest. Property prices will be adjusted this year!
soongkm
post Apr 7 2011, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(dtna7 @ Apr 7 2011, 05:14 PM)
for those who wants the prop bubble to burst...

what makes you think you can afford it during that time?

If you cant afford it now, I dont see how u can afford it by then.

Instead of hoping + praying that it will burst, why dont you make yourself affordable?

Period.
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Hey, some of these people are not buying is not because they can't afford it. It's just that they see the truth in this "property illusion". Suddenly in just one year, that is 2010, suddenly property goes up so much. Must be manipulation! These people who see this are smart. Sometimes is not about affordability. For example, would you pay RM100 for one durian? Can you afford it? Well, it is expensive but i am sure many people can afford it. But would you buy it? Not really, unless you die die also must eat durian or you think durian will cost RM110 tomorrow.

So please, not all people don't buy now is not because they can't afford.


Added on April 7, 2011, 5:44 pm
QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Apr 7 2011, 05:18 PM)
[/b]

some sifus in this forum regards those ppl that not buying but renting their property as "suckers"...
to all "suckers", maybe u shud listen to those "sifus" and buy buy buy to get out of "suckerhood".

[cool.gifquote from one of the taiko property tycoon in LY forum:


"yes  there r new grad coming out to work every year
otherwise wat is our local uni for? how abt those colleges with so many students enrollment?
I rent to those new grads, few years back was $1200, now $1700, iproperty says the fake asking rent is $2k 
after 1 to 2 years, they leave & new suckers.. I mean new grads come again to rent (its really all abt location3)"
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Yes, i have to agree with you. These so called property gurus of course will try to spin the market to be "active" la. Of course they won't say it's good all the time, as a matter of fact, they don't have to. They just need the market to be active. Just like stock market, no matter the market good or bad, the stock broker sure make money one, as long as the market is active!

So when the market is active, alot of people will have to seek "professional" opinion in buying property, that's where these property gurus earned their money! If really so good, why they care to share the secret with you, why don't they diam diam sapu all and make all the money!

This post has been edited by soongkm: Apr 7 2011, 05:44 PM
soongkm
post Apr 7 2011, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 7 2011, 05:37 PM)
Agreed 100%. Boycott new property launches and only buy subsale if there is a good deal. If not just wait till year end or early 2012. More correction is expected in the property market.
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Totally support! Don't buy property now, especially the new launches! But subsales which are more than 5 years old. Don't let the speculators get away with this, that is sucking people's money out of a ponzi scheme.
soongkm
post Apr 8 2011, 05:38 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 7 2011, 06:32 PM)
buy good location prop is like buy good bluechip stocks, price will only up (due to inflation). good location mean within KL centre, good blue chip mean those companies with ability to make profits eg maxis, petronas, ytl, shangrila, digi, nestle etc. dont go buy ulu ulu and far far prop, similarly dun buy risky stocks.
in fact genting, carlsberg, BAT (tobacco), GAB (guinness beer) is also very good stock but Malaysia not sure..

i recalled a shenzhen person form a group want to boycott buy prop some 10 years ago. til now shenzhen prop is still up up and i think this guy hv commited suicide.  so many ppl blamed him and he is broke.

i lived in many oversea big cities b4 (long stay) eg Singapore, HK, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and i always hear the same boycott, but til date i havent see prices drop in those big cities. I mean central not ulu ulu Shanghai, Beijing.
KL is still developing and will become same with those big cities one day.
if u buy within perimeter 30km from KLCC i think shud be safe. (especially in long term)

buy stock/prop 10, 20, 30 years ago, or buy now or buy 10, 20, 30 years later - u go figure. in short, if u got $, pls invest (stock or prop).
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When the people here are saying "price will drop" means price will be adjusted from the present, all time high. Not crash. But in the long run say 10 15 years from now, it will still trend upwards.

Even blue chip stocks, gold, oil or even property prices in big international cities when they reached all time high, the "price will drop" means price will be adjusted. Not crash. But on the long run, it will of course always trend upwards.


Added on April 8, 2011, 5:44 am
QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 7 2011, 07:44 PM)
pretty strong words and bold statements. i would very much like to revisit your statement by end of this year.
would appreciate if others remind me by say mid of december 2011.
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Well, that's my prediction and i am sticking with it. ALot of developers are putting off their planned lauching. But in the news they keep on saying that they are confident that the market is still strong. What do you expect them to say, their bread and butter is in this industry. Just like Bee End will always say foreign investors are as ever, very confident in the country's political situation and policy.

If they are so confident, why YNH is postponing the Kiara 163 project so many times??? If they believe their own words that market sentiment is very strong, why don't they fast fast launch it to "enjoy" the strong market sentiment. Go and check, how many times Kiara 163 has been postponed and until now, that piece of land is still hoarding there.

This post has been edited by soongkm: Apr 8 2011, 05:44 AM
soongkm
post Apr 8 2011, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Apr 8 2011, 03:54 PM)
how come everything not finalized yet...but the job already start.... hmm.gif

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...-finalised-yet/
Oil price oledi reach US$111......I think GE around the corner.....please prepare ourselves for the coming soon inflation.....

Buy property now??? Noway... sad.gif
HK Lee Ka shing come in to sapu ....commercial property ...... do you thing property will drop???  hmm.gif  hmm.gif  hmm.gif

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html
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Superman Lee analogy is very simple: RM500 million for 3 shopping centre. of course sapu la. For that price of RM500 million, can buy how many units of priime location condo unit only. Cannot use Superman barometer to judge our day to day RE needs.

soongkm
post Apr 10 2011, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 10 2011, 12:14 PM)
+1!
Just to add a few comments,
1. I quote Property Guru Gavin's view, in most of the developed cities (countries), if you study their formation of the city, it is almost in circle shape, for instance take Shanghai most centralised spot as a LCG point, every KM in radius away fr the red spot will hv different in land value, the further away fr the center point, the lower the land value, regardless North South East West. But in Malaysia, we hv land used problem, Malay Reserved land will forever "under developed" even it is nest to KLCC or MK (if the land is forever sold to BUMI only)
2. Race issue is always a sensitive topic in this Bolehland, we dun talk bout politic or gomen policies, do you notice that those "Wong" township are majority occupied by Chinese (>80%)? Wat make Penang better than others states in the last 50 years?
3. We dun hv an effective transportation system like in Singapore, London or Hong Kong, if you follow the American Robert Kiyosaki teaching, I will say sure jialat sweat.gif , this guy dun encourage investor to take loan to buy car or house, if possible take public transport (dun buy car), rent a room, do a lot of investments, make money then buy with cash, his teaching is Cash is KING, I wouldn't say his theory is wrong, if you apply it in Singapore, HK and Japan, it is correct, but in Malaysia, do you want to take public transport? If an insurance agent take public transport to do business, he will definitely earn much much lesser
4. Almost all the foreign property investment theory mentioning "Location, location, location" - Golden Rule in the world, but IMHO, I dun agree, if I were to invest property in Malaysia, my priority is "Developer, Developer, Developer" then "Chinese, Chinese, Chinese" followed by "Location, Location, Location" DPC, Setia Eco Park, Sierramas, Tropicana are proven of the developer's effort, these are not prime areas at the beginning of the development.
5. Foreign teaching will encourage investor to invest in area where hv gd infrastructures, it is absolutely correct but not really in Bolehland, if one buta-buta follow, they will end up investing in Putrajaya (has the best infrastructure in Malaysia) and not Puchong, the result you knowlah
Disclaimer : I am not racist or against any race, the price show in that trend, wat to do?
my 2 bakuli nod.gif
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I tell you, this is 200% true!!! Your observation is very sharp!
soongkm
post Apr 18 2011, 09:06 AM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 18 2011, 08:45 AM)
I agree with you on all of the above, but I think one factor that makes it different this time is China. China undeniably has a ridiculous property bubble and it is inevitable that this will pop. When it does, it will take the economy of the rest of Asia along with it. It will also have a profound psychological effect on all property investors in Asia. How many times have we heard increased property prices in Malaysia being justified by the fact that property is so much more expensive in China? Due to this, I am convinced that when the property market in China crashes hard, Malaysia will follow soon after. So the question is how long the party can still last in China.
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Have to agree with you on this for the China factor. You just said what is on my mind!

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