perhaps this thread title should be "Are properties prices going to rise?"

perhaps v3.. fresh grad 2k~3k.. properties >350k++ food >RM5.5++

THE HARD FACT! (a personal view on the real estate)
this has always been divided between 2 camps. one wishing it will come down, the other hoping it will go up. both can argue till the end of time and there still would be no winner.
my take on all this is simple. let's do an exercise. instead of focusing on actual events of which prices goes up or down in future, let's do a visioning of what we would like to experience.
a)some people wishes property prices will come down.
what does this means. look at country that are experiencing these phenomena. those are the ones that are extremely affected by financial crisis. unemployment soaring to double digit percentage. prices at a fraction of the original purchase value. do you really one this to happen? when this happens, it could spiral and lead to so many other events. desperate people calls for desperate measures. i believe everyone will do the same when they are push to the extreme boundaries. so think hard, the 500k property that you are eyeing. would you like to see it dropping to say 400k? 300k? 200k? when this really happens, think hard, when it DOES happens, would you really be happy about it? compared our property prices and other prices if you will against our neighbouring countries. we were better than most of them say 20 years ago. fast forward to now, while we are screaming crazy property prices, look at our neighbours. vietnam, thailand, singapore have all passed us in the property race. indonesia is only slightly behind taking their jakarta benchmark. so now, do you still want property prices to go down or even remain stagnant for years to come? do we want to position ourselves that Malaysia, the country with one of the cheapest property prices in the world, tag?


b) some people wishes property prices will go up.
what does this means. as most countries are charging ahead in leaps and bounds for their own economy, automatically these countries experiences hike in salary, property prices, better infrastructure, better living, etc. all this encourages and progresses the nation. of course, these are only sustainable if the nation shows true progress. artificial escalation of prices is by no means sustainable. but beware of prices going too far out of reach for the mass public, it might backfired and caused some political unrest.

conclusion (again reminder that this is all IMHO), one should not be too focused on prices going up or down. one should at all times aspire to increase their own income. i end my note by saying this: if one can still buy a decent size property (say 1000 sq ft condo) at a decent location (say within golden triangle) with say rm300k, would you be proud of your country still. and if your answer is yes, can you name me another country in which the prices is lower than my assumptions and have the attraction to draw you there? and if your answer is still yes, i strongly suggest you migrate there to avoid the headache of more increase in property prices.

PS: +1 is most welcomed although not compulsory.

many many years ago, when teh tarik is 30cents, we drank happily.
inflation came, and teh tarik became 40 cents, we still drank happily.
inflation came again and teh tarik became 50 cents. we grumble but still shout to the mamak teh tarik please!
when sugar shortage came, teh tarik became 70 cents. we were upset but yet we still drank but ordering teh tarik kurang manis, hoping it will reduce the sugar consumption and hoping that the price will come back down.
teh tarik increased to 90 cents because petrol was suddenly increased substantially. mamak says it's due to logistics cost. we still order our teh because it's still cheaper than the canned drinks.
teh tarik went up to rm1.20, we still have it with our roti canai.
inflation came again, teh tarik is rm1.50, we curse here and there but yet we still order our tarik!

spot on!
am not saying teh tarik will not come down in price. but when that happens, you might wish it never did!
let's study ways to make teh tarik cheaper:
1. reduce the content of either sugar, teh or milk.
2. reduce the volume of teh tarik served
3. SUBSTITUTE either sugar, teh, milk OR the WATER!
4. oh wait, see, the whole world is in their all time deepest recession. unemployment rate soared to more than 50%. hhmmmm, maybe we should reduce our teh tarik by 10 cents, no?

A. you have either gave up drinking this category of beverage totally - you are satisfied by other offerings in lieu of the conventional teh tarik
B. you have converted your consumption of this beverage elsewhere (eg. paparich, old-town) - upgraded and need not frequent mamak anymore
C. you have substituted drinking this beverage by having it in your home ala- 3-in-1 package - you still drinks it but drinking it differently

dr. seuss is in the house

yes, please keep up your spirit.
2nd hand property that is in town centre but kinda old, don't want
new property far far away with no public transport, don't want
so please wait until they launch a rm220k property in town centre.

that's the problem with some people nowadays.
they want it fast
they want it cheap
they want it to be the best
but the best part is they doesn't want to work for it!

that's the common dream killer to most of the people.
and it's getting increasingly more difficult to get out of the rat race!

like planning to visit japan in the next 3 years but then, no chance liao??

but i kinda agree to UFO. must work hard first before savouring the fruits of your labour. and it seems UFO have made it quite alright. purchasing TMS semi-D liao wor!

if real disaster strikes, youngsters will say "See, i oledi told you to enjoy life first lah. never listen"
if no disaster strikes, old people will say "See, i told you to save more money one lah. never listen"
there's no right nor wrong. just different opnions, different paths.

what i noticed is biggest difference between asians and westeners, the difference in debt. asians tends to provide as much as possible for their kids. at the very least, try to provide graduate degree to them so that they graduate debt free. unlike westeners usually in debt upon graduation.
but some/most asian tends to go the extra mile, give them a helping hand eg deposit for a car, downpayment for house purchase, dowry payment for wedding, etc.
maybe it's tradition that once your parents treat you in this manner, you tend to provide the same thing to your kids. so if your parents never sponsor you education, you also might think, if i can make it, so does my child. or if my parents pays for my studies for degree, i should also make sure my kids can graduate debt free.

if it was you, would you prefer to stay on after witnessing such disaster/cheating death or would you rather migrate?
if migrate, where do you think japs will go?
1. australia
2. singapore
3. malaysia

don't think they like china, hk, taiwan, korea, right?

that is why one should always review the developer's background.
foresee when any tragedy happens, be it petrol prices up, steel prices up, recession, property prices down or anything, reputabable developer would still finish the project even at a loss!
for those buying from 'untested' developer, pray hard.
don't play play oh

real life example:
a contractor 'locked-in' contract at rm1,500/tonne for steel reinforcement. at one time, the steel bars keep increasing prices till rm2,500/tonne with advance cash purchase somemore. concrete prices also went up by about rm30/m3.
the contractor quoted how to proceed work. every kg of steel they tie, they lose rmxx/kg, every concrete m3 they pour, they lose rmxx/m3. it's like pouring $$$ down the drain. but they were binded legally through contract. being contractor also they cannot afford to lose their $$$. so what happens, they appeal to the developer. developer consented to give them market rate to avoid slowdown in progress or late delivery at their own costs (lower profit margin lah).

facts:
contractor won't give a damn on project delivery except maybe big boys like gamuda or wct or ijm or sunway or etc. they have mouths to feed too.
developers also would not give a damn excpt those who are going to be here in the long run like spsetia, suncity, etc.

for those on BBB spree the last few years and project still under construction, you better pray hard that it would not be another platinum damansara lor.

This post has been edited by kochin: Mar 18 2011, 10:46 AM

but would you like to stay on top of those bunker even if they are selling it cheap?

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Added on March 18, 2011, 10:51 amu r absolutely right. thailand is a heaven for most expats. so many of them just retire in pattaya, phuket, krabi, etc.
actually japs in kl are not too bad either. there's at least a few international japanese schools around.
personally i more than welcome them to join the malaysia community.
but if i were in their shoes, with aust, sing, thai to choose from, malaysia might not be my 1st choice.

government should do some massive promotion on inviting them over to 'capitalise' on current situation. go big time on 'malaysia, my 2nd home' or express approval for japan citizens. do you guys agree?

This post has been edited by kochin: Mar 18 2011, 10:51 AM

the way i see it, you are on the right track to success. don't give up.
your analysis is half correct. you are too pessimistic. you do not expect your salary to remain at this level all the time right? for IT graduates, i think rm4-5k is achievable within 3 years! or 5 years at the max! unless the person is really .....

Q:
1. are you renting in rawang?
2. have you considered renting rooms eg. in Damansara Utama. easily saves you rm100 if you are renting in rawang + transport cost

PS: it was me who quoted the 2nd home thingy!

things that i'd noticed personally and my opinions (not that it matters anyway):
1. price MIGHT increase due to potential shortage of both materials and labours
2. price MIGHT increase due to sudden influx of demand from foreign investors (and potentially Japanese) due to investment/ETP
3. increasing population in Selangor/KL. demand outstripping supply


as for empty units especially high-end homes costing >RM1mil, it is 'normal' to be unoccupied as many of them are constantly travelling. some of them are purchasing these as their guest houses or resort home.
example, joe is a multi-millionaire. he regularly entertains his guest who stops by malaysia for a visit. each visit have a say family of four. to house these four guest in 5-star hotel within klcc for a week would easily cost joe (RM600/day/room x 7) rm8.4k. joe thinks it's cheaper to 'maintain' a unit than putting his guest in hotels regularly.
a lot of people can't comprehend what the rich are thinking. if we succeed, we would be rich already rather than blowing water here.

27mil population with 4.9% earning >RM10k wor.

ok. 10% of 27mil population still got 2.7mil.
2.7mil of which 4.9% having more than RM10k/month still > 130k household wor.

if buyers from indonesia, how?

all in approx figure since lazy to refer back.
the census says there's like 6.x million household.
4.9% more than rm10k.
4.9% of 6 mil household is more than 300k household.
so we are talking about >300k household that assumingly honestly replied to the census.

you just made my day! +1