Moody's Investors Service downgraded its outlook on the mainland property sector to "negative" from "stable" on what it says are gloomy fundamentals for developers over the next 12 to 18 months.

    Under a tough operating environment driven by tightening regulatory measures, rising interest rates, reduced bank lending and increasing supply, mainland developers will inevitably encounter slowing sales, shrinking profit margins and liquidity pressure, according to the rating agency.

    It also anticipates that the proceeds from contracted sales of residential homes will decline by an average 25 to 30 percent in first and second-tier cities this year.
    According to a Moody's liquidity stress test on 38 mainland developers, 10 of them - all of which are listed in Hong Kong including Shimao Property Holdings Ltd and Central China Real Estate Ltd - will become "vulnerable" in terms of balance sheet liquidity if their contracted sales decline 25 percent this year compared with 2010.

    Du Jinsong, head of China property research at Credit Suisse, told China Daily he agrees the finding of Moody's, adding that Credit Suisse has been underweight mainland property since October 2010.

    The investment bank expects mainland home prices to slide 5 to 10 percent this year with trading volume to drop 10 to 15 percent.

I expect a bloodbath, not a 5% pullback. Once sentiment changes it will likely be gone for a long while just as happened in the US.

i think they stop buying that crazily liao..
they're letting go now i think..
2 more auction unit on the condo nearby my stayin place(400k ++ one)..   ><
last time auction is bumi lot.. this time one i not sure.. check liao tell u all yeah..

i think they stop buying that crazily liao..
they're letting go now i think..
2 more auction unit on the condo nearby my stayin place(400k ++ one)..   ><
last time auction is bumi lot.. this time one i not sure.. check liao tell u all yeah..

haiya, i just challenged those people to walk the talk la 
since they so strongly believe that prices will only go up, then they shud continue to buy buy buy la.

For those who kept saying that property prices in Malaysia will only go up up up up up and up.

I would appreciate it if you could share with us those who struggling to get a place for own stay:

1) how many properties have you bought over the past 6 months?? And where/ which location. Pls provide details on prices etc, since already done, nothing to lose for disclosing these info right?

2) how many you wanna buy in the next few months (You better be fast right? since prices will only be more and more expensive later on) and where or which location. How much willing to pay?

3) how many % of your resources have been invested in the property market. (better to put in alll your resources since the prices will only be Up Up Up and Up right???) How you managed to get the financing??? % of your monthly cash flows going into paying installment?

4) any other personal experience that you think is relevant and willing to share.

the above information will really help us to make better decisions. thanks in advance!!! Dont' talk only la, walk the talk and pls continue to buy buy buy and buy since you are so confident ~~ walking the talk is more convincing la .

For those who kept saying that property prices in Malaysia will only go up up up up up and up.

I would appreciate it if you could share with us those who struggling to get a place for own stay:

1) how many properties have you bought over the past 6 months?? And where/ which location. Pls provide details on prices etc, since already done, nothing to lose for disclosing these info right?

2) how many you wanna buy in the next few months (You better be fast right? since prices will only be more and more expensive later on) and where or which location. How much willing to pay?

3) how many % of your resources have been invested in the property market. (better to put in alll your resources since the prices will only be Up Up Up and Up right???) How you managed to get the financing??? % of your monthly cash flows going into paying installment?

4) any other personal experience that you think is relevant and willing to share.

the above information will really help us to make better decisions. thanks in advance!!! Dont' talk only la, walk the talk and pls continue to buy buy buy and buy since you are so confident ~~ walking the talk is more convincing la .

At 1st those people predicted US crisis will badly hit the property mkt b'coz US is tai kor, those people quiet now. it doesn't happen, now China pula...

As I recall, the US example was cited mainly as an example that property prices can fall, i.e. to argue against the myth that property prices can only ever go up. But most people understand that the US economy is decoupled enough from the Malaysian economy that even a recession in the US shouldn't affect Malaysia too much.

The situation now is different in the following ways:

1) When the subprime bubble burst, economic growth in China more than made up for the slack from the US. The crisis merely accelerated the switch of focus of the Malaysian economy from the US to China. When the China bubble finally bursts, it will come at a time when the US economy is still weak. This means there will be no one to make up the slack this time, no global provider of demand. The Malaysian economy is puny in comparison to the US and China. Since the Malaysian economy is strongly export-oriented, if both of these giants catch a cold at the same time, the Malaysian economy must surely get pneumonia.

2) Everyone knows that the property market in Malaysia is driven by the Chinese in the country. And one way or another the Chinese in turn are more economically dependent on China than the other races. There's also the psychological factor as I've mentioned. Most of the Chinese in Malaysia could care less about property price indices in the US. But when it comes to China, many Malaysian Chinese have lots of stories to tell about how much house prices in Shanghai have gone up in a year and so on. Heck, my wife's parents watch Chinese news channels and they have regular segments on property indices in all the main Chinese cities as part of the news reports. This gives the Chinese in Malaysia added confidence about how property is always a good buy.

3) By and large, Malaysia banks don't care what happens to US banks, so they were not contaminated by the falllout. But when the property bubble in China bursts, it will also affect Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. Do Malaysian banks Do Malaysian banks have lots of dealings with Hong Kong, Singapore and China? I believe so. This could get very messy.

i dun think china prop will ever crash coz the demand is still very strong. chinese do not have other mode of investments like Msia and rest of world, so prop is only mode of investment to hedge inflation.

As much as I hope that China's property market doesn't crash, I find that very difficult to believe.

1) Here is a look at one of the many completely deserted townships that China has built. China has an estimated 64 million empty homes! Enough to give every man, woman and child in Malaysia three houses each!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13...y-deserted.html

2) Here is a Wikipedia entry on the largest shopping mall in the world by gross leasable area, completed in 2005 and still 99% vacant by today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall

3) Here is a news report about how property is so expensive in China that speculators are now moving on to graveyard plots.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinat...peculators.html

Many of the Chinese who speculate in the property market can't even afford to live in the houses themselves. They will pool savings from several friends and family members and get loans to buy the property in the hopes of reselling it and distributing the profit to everyone. So no single person can afford to personally live in the property even when it isn't sold. In the meantime, they can still live eight persons to a room to save money to invest. How long can this kind of demand last?

As much as I hope that China's property market doesn't crash, I find that very difficult to believe.

1) Here is a look at one of the many completely deserted townships that China has built. China has an estimated 64 million empty homes! Enough to give every man, woman and child in Malaysia three houses each!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13...y-deserted.html

2) Here is a Wikipedia entry on the largest shopping mall in the world by gross leasable area, completed in 2005 and still 99% vacant by today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall

3) Here is a news report about how property is so expensive in China that speculators are now moving on to graveyard plots.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinat...peculators.html

Many of the Chinese who speculate in the property market can't even afford to live in the houses themselves. They will pool savings from several friends and family members and get loans to buy the property in the hopes of reselling it and distributing the profit to everyone. So no single person can afford to personally live in the property even when it isn't sold. In the meantime, they can still live eight persons to a room to save money to invest. How long can this kind of demand last?

can young malay come to kl work afford the prop price?
with the salary that they can get ?

As I recall, the US example was cited mainly as an example that property prices can fall, i.e. to argue against the myth that property prices can only ever go up. But most people understand that the US economy is decoupled enough from the Malaysian economy that even a recession in the US shouldn't affect Malaysia too much.

The situation now is different in the following ways:

3) By and large, Malaysia banks don't care what happens to US banks, so they were not contaminated by the falllout. But when the property bubble in China bursts, it will also affect Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. Do Malaysian banks have lots of dealings with Hong Kong, Singapore and China? I believe so. This could get very messy.

the topic has been discuss for years, I dun understand why you still asking the same questions, go back to read the 1st post fr day 1 again.
For new house buyers, they are so lucky that the forum which has started since 2003, provided so many valuable tips and informations, and again and again, the more informations you get, the greedier you are, you want to know the answer, do your own research and study, dun expect people to spoon feed you

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