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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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AVFAN
post Apr 18 2011, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 18 2011, 02:33 PM)
Many of the Chinese who speculate in the property market can't even afford to live in the houses themselves. They will pool savings from several friends and family members and get loans to buy the property in the hopes of reselling it and distributing the profit to everyone. So no single person can afford to personally live in the property even when it isn't sold. In the meantime, they can still live eight persons to a room to save money to invest. How long can this kind of demand last?
*
this is a good observation, same situation locally here.
check around with the master speculators.
vast majority live in modest apts/condos or terrace houses but gorenging multiple units of luxury highrise, smds, etc.
won't find an nvestor living in a bungalow goreng just 1-2 apts or small houses.
"eat cannot afford, gamble can".
like someone said before, "live by the sword, die by the sword"!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 18 2011, 03:55 PM
SUSNew Klang
post Apr 18 2011, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 18 2011, 02:30 PM)
can young malay come to kl work afford the prop price? smile.gif
with the salary that they can get ?
*
Yes, they can afford to own properties but they prefer to own brand new continental cars and changing every 3 years. Only very few are investing into properties.


bluesfingers
post Apr 18 2011, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 18 2011, 03:38 PM)
with such high value.. the rental won't be able to cover the month installment to banks smile.gif
so every month is -ve cashflow for investor.. hope they can tahan..
*
You still can find alot of cheap aprtments in kL/PJ abit old if dont mind, rent or buy, eg wangsa maju section 2 or 4, flora damansara, or low cost apartment in sri rampai.
no money then hv to live in a more basic apartment lor.
People now maximize thier household income affordability to pay for a house for ownstay, say RM600k with nett take home income of RM8k. Mortgage RM3.3k
anyside lose their job die loo

This post has been edited by bluesfingers: Apr 18 2011, 04:55 PM
lucerne
post Apr 18 2011, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 18 2011, 02:33 PM)
As much as I hope that China's property market doesn't crash, I find that very difficult to believe.

1) Here is a look at one of the many completely deserted townships that China has built. China has an estimated 64 million empty homes! Enough to give every man, woman and child in Malaysia three houses each!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13...y-deserted.html

2) Here is a Wikipedia entry on the largest shopping mall in the world by gross leasable area, completed in 2005 and still 99% vacant by today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_China_Mall

3) Here is a news report about how property is so expensive in China that speculators are now moving on to graveyard plots.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinat...peculators.html

Many of the Chinese who speculate in the property market can't even afford to live in the houses themselves. They will pool savings from several friends and family members and get loans to buy the property in the hopes of reselling it and distributing the profit to everyone. So no single person can afford to personally live in the property even when it isn't sold. In the meantime, they can still live eight persons to a room to save money to invest. How long can this kind of demand last?
*
as i hv mentioned many times earlier, dun compare ulu ulu places in china, usa, malaka with KL. i live in shanghai many years and never heard of the cities mentioned above. i still strongly believed if u work in big cities eg KL anytime is good to buy prop to live or invest. the earlier to buy (when u saved enough and can afford to pay DP) is better coz history tell us prop in big metro city will never drop due to inflation and increased population. if u prefer to wait it is up to u but dun misleading us. if u want to convince us that price in big metro cities/CBD eg shanghai, beijing, shenzhen, jakarta, manila, new york eg mahattan area, paris, taipei, hk, london, bangkok, ever drop in last 10,20, 30, 40,50 years , pls give your facts and examples. i refer to major area not ulu ulu beijing (eg outer 8-10 ring road etc) and dun give examples of inner mongolia, xinjiang, outskirt melaka etc. i m a city boy (and live b4 in major global cities) and i know what is going on. if u r new comer in KL, u have no choice to join the race. the business activities will continue in CBD and prop price will continue to rise. (unless revolution take place like china communist who take over /confiscate your prop which not likely to happen nowaday). dun blame the speculators coz they cant sapu all prop in KL. how many prop one can buy? whole block?? 100 units ?? and pls compare tis numbers with total KL prop built all these 50-60 years. millions ?? wat u need to do is work hard and save $ to buy or invest your KL prop earlier to avoid pay higher prices later on. dont complaint , this is real life. no one including govt will not help u, u need to help yourself.
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 18 2011, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 18 2011, 04:52 PM)
as i hv mentioned many times earlier, dun compare ulu ulu places in china, usa, malaka with KL. i live in shanghai many years and never heard of the cities mentioned above. i still strongly believed if u work in big cities eg KL anytime is good to buy prop to live or invest. the earlier to buy (when u saved enough and can afford to pay DP) is better coz history tell us prop in big metro city will never drop due to inflation and increased population. if u prefer to wait it is up to u but dun misleading us. if u want to convince us that price in big metro cities/CBD eg shanghai, beijing, shenzhen, jakarta, manila, new york eg mahattan area, paris, taipei, hk, london, bangkok, ever drop in last 10,20, 30, 40,50 years , pls give your facts and examples. i refer to major area not ulu ulu beijing (eg outer 8-10 ring road etc) and dun give examples of inner mongolia, xinjiang, outskirt melaka etc.  i m a city boy (and live b4 in major global cities) and i know what is going on.  if u r new comer in KL, u have no choice to join the race.  the business activities will continue in CBD and prop price will continue to rise. (unless revolution take place like china communist who take over /confiscate your prop which not likely to happen nowaday). dun blame the speculators coz they cant sapu all prop in KL.  how many prop one can buy? whole block??  100 units ?? and pls compare tis numbers with total KL prop built all these 50-60 years. millions ?? wat u need to do is work hard and save $ to buy or invest your KL prop earlier to avoid pay higher prices later on. dont complaint , this is real life. no one including govt will not help u, u need to help yourself.
*
Urbanization.....agree why talk bout Melaka? In Malaysia, only Penang (good leader) & KL (Capital) are considered has better future, may be Sabah has a bit potential (attract HK & Taiwan mkt)
CKHong
post Apr 18 2011, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 18 2011, 04:52 PM)
as i hv mentioned many times earlier, dun compare ulu ulu places in china, usa, malaka with KL. i live in shanghai many years and never heard of the cities mentioned above. i still strongly believed if u work in big cities eg KL anytime is good to buy prop to live or invest. the earlier to buy (when u saved enough and can afford to pay DP) is better coz history tell us prop in big metro city will never drop due to inflation and increased population. if u prefer to wait it is up to u but dun misleading us. if u want to convince us that price in big metro cities/CBD eg shanghai, beijing, shenzhen, jakarta, manila, new york eg mahattan area, paris, taipei, hk, london, bangkok, ever drop in last 10,20, 30, 40,50 years , pls give your facts and examples. i refer to major area not ulu ulu beijing (eg outer 8-10 ring road etc) and dun give examples of inner mongolia, xinjiang, outskirt melaka etc.  i m a city boy (and live b4 in major global cities) and i know what is going on.  if u r new comer in KL, u have no choice to join the race.  the business activities will continue in CBD and prop price will continue to rise. (unless revolution take place like china communist who take over /confiscate your prop which not likely to happen nowaday). dun blame the speculators coz they cant sapu all prop in KL.  how many prop one can buy? whole block??  100 units ?? and pls compare tis numbers with total KL prop built all these 50-60 years. millions ?? wat u need to do is work hard and save $ to buy or invest your KL prop earlier to avoid pay higher prices later on. dont complaint , this is real life. no one including govt will not help u, u need to help yourself.
*
cool down bro... u macam over reacting smile.gif
u sounded like u sapu 10+ props.. no offence bro..
lucerne
post Apr 18 2011, 05:19 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 18 2011, 05:07 PM)
cool down bro... u macam over reacting  smile.gif
u sounded like u sapu 10+ props..  no offence bro..
*
not sure u hv read my old posts. after travelled to so many cities , i know the $ will become smaller and smaller.. (if u dun know how to invest and grow your $ eg stock, prop, do business etc). 1mil may worth oni 10k in 30, 40 years time..
i am too lazy/not smart to do biz and no good in share market, so i went to invest in prop to saveguard my $...
i know i will suffered when i m old if i dun invest in prop regularly. in today world, u cant depend/rely on your children nor the govt especially msia/BN.
dannyme
post Apr 18 2011, 05:22 PM

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Haih.. Why is the party dying down?
I really hope for this buy buy buy party to last for another year or two.
By then, most ppl will be buying a normal 20x70 for a million+.
And most probably the 'high income group' will still be bringing 3k home a month.
I'd really like to see who the hell all this speculators gonna sell their props to.


CKHong
post Apr 18 2011, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 18 2011, 05:19 PM)
not sure u hv read my old posts. after travelled to so many cities , i know the $ will become smaller and smaller.. (if u dun know how to invest and grow your $ eg stock, prop, do business etc).  1mil may worth oni 10k in 30, 40 years time..
i am too lazy/not smart to do biz and no good in share market, so i went to invest in prop to saveguard my $...
i know i will suffered when i m old if i dun invest in prop regularly. in today world, u cant depend/rely on your children nor the govt especially msia/BN.
*
i agree with 'can't depend/rely on ur children'
the % they will give u $$ is quite low T_T

room2009
post Apr 18 2011, 05:46 PM

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Now actually is the BEST TIME to let go your unit, especially the one that hard to let go last time.
last time if i find out the unit has water leaking problem, i definitely wont consider, but now.. ppl is crazy of props, me and my frens js let go all the problem props.. u can see the buyers are so kiasu, they even mock up our asking price.. Lols..
don't la always blame the seller, we are not the 1 who goreng the price, is the buyers themselves too keen to grab whatever in the market... i can say, no one is being rasional now... but, i like biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by room2009: Apr 18 2011, 05:46 PM
SUSNew Klang
post Apr 18 2011, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 18 2011, 05:19 PM)
i know the $ will become smaller and smaller.. (if u dun know how to invest and grow your $ eg stock, prop, do business etc).  1mil may worth oni 10k in 30, 40 years time..
i am too lazy/not smart to do biz and no good in share market, so i went to invest in prop to saveguard my $...
i know i will suffered when i m old if i dun invest in prop regularly. in today world, u cant depend/rely on your children nor the govt especially msia/BN.
*
Totally spot on!
rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

lucerne
post Apr 18 2011, 06:03 PM

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trust me, u cant get the same price later if u let go your prop now. (in metro KL case). it will only get more pricey after few years especially long term.

agreed to let go now if yr prop got lots of problems and not worth time to repair, let the headache to someone else. but pls make sure u buy/replace a new one immediately. u may loss the legal fee etc, but better to faced the leaking problems forever. sell slightly lower also can.

to subsales buyer, pls get prepared to spend $ and TIME for repairs. if u are not good in contractors /repair, pls buy new prop with reputable developers. new prop always higher price due to above reasons.


Added on April 18, 2011, 6:08 pmi sold a leaking DSL 3 years ago but immediatly i bought /replaced with another DSL (from subsale), i will regret if i dont do anything after selling the old unit.

This post has been edited by lucerne: Apr 18 2011, 06:08 PM
TSVeda
post Apr 18 2011, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Apr 18 2011, 03:59 PM)
Yes, they can afford to own properties but they prefer to own brand new continental cars and changing every 3 years. Only very few are investing into properties.
*
Don't stereotype please. One of the Meleis investors in this forum has nearly 20 properties (perhaps more now), and he's not yet 30!

Not referring to you, but some of those hoping for property prices to drop are so bitter that they resort to flames, personal attacks and boasts. If wanna flame, go to /k/ lah doh.gif

This post has been edited by Veda: Apr 18 2011, 06:24 PM
SUSNew Klang
post Apr 18 2011, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Apr 18 2011, 06:22 PM)
Don't stereotype please. One of the Meleis investors in this forum has nearly 20 properties (perhaps more now), and he's not yet 30!

Not referring to you, but some of those hoping for property prices to drop are so bitter that they resort to flames, personal attacks and boasts. If wanna flame, go to /k/ lah  doh.gif
*
Don't reveal his identity, nanti kena kidnapped.

Property drop? I am still waiting for 17 years.
lucerne
post Apr 18 2011, 06:35 PM

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yes dun stereotype, many malays are now Azizi Ali's follower (who wrote many prop investment book in bahasa malaysia). i also see more and more malays attend forums, seminar, expo eg recent EDGE, prop fair etc.
Believed more malays will come to work and live in KL after graduated at KL U's. many are well educated, work in GLC/MNC and become smart investors nowaday.
lch78
post Apr 18 2011, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 18 2011, 06:04 PM)
Urbanization.....agree why talk bout Melaka? In Malaysia, only Penang (good leader) & KL (Capital) are considered has better future, may be Sabah has a bit potential (attract HK & Taiwan mkt)
*
May I add Johor Bahru. The fact that it is near Singapore makes it has a better future too..

liyonglim
post Apr 18 2011, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Apr 18 2011, 03:59 PM)
Yes, they can afford to own properties but they prefer to own brand new continental cars and changing every 3 years. Only very few are investing into properties.
*
hmmm... I guess because cars are really very captivating. Just went to Lexus at damansara, straight paid RM10,000 deposite to book a car without much thinking. But when to buy a property, even for own stay, I'm like gonna think think and think, location location and location, should I book or not, although the booking is only RM1000. I see so many youngster are getting higher purchase, will the future prop demand get soften? Since affordabily and loan approval to buy property being hamperred after buying hire purchase.
SUSNew Klang
post Apr 18 2011, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 18 2011, 06:35 PM)
yes dun stereotype, many malays are now Azizi Ali's follower (who wrote many prop investment book in bahasa malaysia). i also see more and more malays attend forums, seminar, expo eg recent EDGE, prop fair etc.
Believed more malays will come to work and live in KL after graduated at KL U's. many are well educated, work in GLC/MNC and become smart investors nowaday.
*
I was not stereotyping.

Pls refer to the original question.

QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 18 2011, 02:30 PM)
can young malay come to kl work afford the prop price?
with the salary that they can get ?

lch78
post Apr 18 2011, 06:52 PM

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Cars are becoming a necessity nowadays. If we don't own a car, how to travel to work, and move around? That is why most youngsters will buy car first, because that is a necessity to get their career moving. In fact household debt has risen also due largely to car loan nowadays.

That is why youngsters need to delay their house buying first, which in turn contribute to good residential rental demands at certain good location (For eg Petaling Jaya). With the property prices ballooning up, rentals seem to be a norm. Many who still earns 10 years ago salary scale can't afford to buy properties now at today's prices. This situation is becoming acute these days, and that is why faraway places (Sg Buloh, Klang, Kota Kemuning, Kajang, etc) also can command good demand. (Of course this must be accompanied by active promotion by developers and the fact that developers can come out with very good concept of living)

The metro has become expensive to most people who works in KL, PJ, SJ. And in another 2 n 3 years, I can only think of 2 ways newly graduate youngsters can afford to stay in metro area. They are rich, or they rent....

This post has been edited by lch78: Apr 18 2011, 07:04 PM
SUSwankongyew
post Apr 18 2011, 06:57 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 18 2011, 04:52 PM)
if u want to convince us that price in big metro cities/CBD eg shanghai, beijing, shenzhen, jakarta, manila, new york eg mahattan area, paris, taipei, hk, london, bangkok, ever drop in last 10,20, 30, 40,50 years , pls give your facts and examples. i refer to major area not ulu ulu beijing (eg outer 8-10 ring road etc) and dun give examples of inner mongolia, xinjiang, outskirt melaka etc.
Never ever is strong word to use. Property prices even in large cities such as the ones you mentioned can drop. For example in Hong Kong, property crashed following the 1997 / 1998 Asian crisis. Yes, it has recently recovered and passed the previous, but that doesn't change the fact that
those who bought at the wrong time lose out.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Ho...g/Price-History

Tokyo residential prices dropped to less than ten percent of their peak value in 1999 and up until today still has not recovered its peak.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

And here's a price index chart for Los Angeles, so you can see how hard the price drop has been.

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=1939

You mentioned Taipei, but the house price index for Taiwan is incredibly volatile, spiking up and down like a yo-yo.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Taiwan/Price-History

You can say that in the long run, properties always keep their value. But surely if you leave the long run undefined, you can apply that to almost any other asset. Why not say that in the long run, shares always earn a positive return?


QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 18 2011, 04:52 PM)
   i m a city boy (and live b4 in major global cities) and i know what is going on.  if u r new comer in KL, u have no choice to join the race.  the business activities will continue in CBD and prop price will continue to rise. (unless revolution take place like china communist who take over /confiscate your prop which not likely to happen nowaday). dun blame the speculators coz they cant sapu all prop in KL.  how many prop one can buy? whole block??  100 units ?? and pls compare tis numbers with total KL prop built all these 50-60 years. millions ?? wat u need to do is work hard and save $ to buy or invest your KL prop earlier to avoid pay higher prices later on. dont complaint , this is real life. no one including govt will not help u, u need to help yourself.
I don't know why you added all that. As another poster has pointed out, you sound awfully excited about this and seem to take this very personally. Hopefully, this wasn't directed at me as I have posted nothing about my personal situation and hence you do not know anything about me. For all you know, the property price drop that I am expecting could be hurting me as well.

This post has been edited by wankongyew: Apr 18 2011, 06:58 PM

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