If you are willing to concede to the above, then we essentially have no argument left. My points are fairly simple:

1. Property is not an asset class that is magically different from all other assets. It has its ups and downs and is subject to the normal laws of demand and supply.
2. Since the number one rule in investing is buy low and sell high, it stands to reason that you do not want to buy at the peak of the cycle for any asset. You want to buy at the trough whenever possible.
3. Property prices in some key markets in Malaysia has seen an unusually steep hike in prices recently which is not justified by the underlying fundamentals. This is properly called a bubble.
4. All bubbles must eventually pop and prices corrected. This may a sharp crash or perhaps just a small dip and a prolonged stagnation. No one can really tell at this point.

To those people who argue that as the capital of Malaysia, KL is fully justified to see continued property price rises because people are still moving here, consider the following:

1. Presumably you do not think that KL property is a magical asset that is immune to the normal laws of demand and supply.
2. Therefore you think that the rise in prices in KL is justified by the fundamentals.
3. But because of point no. 1 above, surely there is some point at which even the bullish among you will feel that prices are no longer justified.

So my question is if you feel that we are not at the peak yet, what do you think the peak will be?

As we all know, house prices roughly doubled over the past two or three years, so a normal double-terrace house can be expected to fetch around 800k. Is that a fair assessment? At what point do you think it is considered overvalued to you? If within the next two to three years, prices hit, say 1.2 million, would that be okay with you? Or say, 1.5 million within four to five years from now? Would you still think that this is a justified and sustainable price?

Just honestly curious here.

So long as you and your family can live comfortably in your own house and the unfortunate ones die on the street also not your concern? because this people do not have the financial muscles to buy houses at "GORENGed" price, they deserve to be homeless? In the first place, it is not even because they lazy and dont want to work ok? ?? To victimize people because of GREED is perfectly OK ??? no wonder we hv more and more serious social problems.

good point you got there wankongyew.
what i'll be interested to know is the number of transactions that went through during those so called peak pricing.
i would have thought if there were substantially transactions at those record pricing, then everybody would have 'wet their hair'.
and when a lot of people start wetting their hair, it's the 'too big to fail concept' and in the event of failure, it's the waiting for bailout scenario.

personally, i am in dilemma because:
1. i think property in malaysia is dirt cheap comparing to neighbouring countries and globally
2. i think property in malaysia is unaffordable to general public
so how? on one hand i want it to go up, on the other hand, i want it to go down.
so i still standby my wish for salary to go up up up to satisfy both my wishlist!

This post has been edited by kochin: Apr 19 2011, 10:46 AM

hopefully your words are taking into consideration of Investors/Speculators.

take it easy. I am also renting a room now, helping people to pay their repayments.

One thing we have to realise, no fair game in this world. I learn it, and still I learn it.

agreed +1.

property is a basic need for human being so demand will always be there. But the increase in property prices must be supported by fundamentals. Speculating activities will push prices higher but the question is how long can it sustain. The spike in prices over a short period of time will come to point where adjustment is needed for the affordability to catch up.

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Added on April 19, 2011, 10:54 amhi no offence. but somehow these are some of the reasons used by speculators to rationalize their actions.

i.e.: robbers when they rob banks etc, can we say that it's ok because the robbers are risking their lives? Risking lIves more serious than taking business risks right ?

This post has been edited by godutch: Apr 19 2011, 10:54 AM

over over

Population growth and urbanization will continue to sustain the supply in the market.. there are upgraders and downgraders at the sametime..

If worry to much, i think its better to stay away from RE if one is not confident

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Apr 19 2011, 11:01 AM

It's not just KL. It's happening in Melaka too. Why the heck would anybody migrate here? for Historical benefits?

A new launch 320K recently increase to 328K within a month, and soon to be 338K when the developer removes the 10K "discount".

Those in KL may say this is cheap but this is malacca salary we are refering to. And out of town for us, is really out of town. People travel at 40km/hour and less on certain trunk roads, imagine that.

And don't forget the multitudes of traffic lights... heck we are notorious for those.

hai/sigh...

yeah..property prices are increasing in major towns, even in Kelantan especially those non-bumi status properties in the state.

gomen tarak luit liao.. so they somehow have to make the props market ongoing..
bank BLR - x
x is increasing.. means that gomen wants more transaction going..
need $$ for the big General election i think haha.. after GE then.. duno what will happen....

DTZ: Economy Slows But Market Remains Steady
Apr 09, 2011


According to DTZ Property Consultants, the economy has slowed slightly but the market remains steady.

•Better occupancy in prime offices but the office market expected to remain soft due to substantial pipeline supply
•Retail consumer sentiment remains strong but rising inflation will lead to mixed performance among malls
•Residential buying sentiment remains optimistic but caution setting in due to affordability
•Investment deal amount in Q1 2011 is similar to Q4 2010 with cautiously optimistic outlook for the rest of the year being driven by domestic investments under the Economic Transformation Programme
Offices

The overall occupancy rate of office buildings in KL increased slightly from 86.4 per cent in Q4 2011 to 86.9 per cent in Q1 2011 due to good take up at prime office buildings. A new prime office building, Hampshire Place, added another 240,000 sq ft to existing stock. Office rents increased marginally thanks to the better occupancy achieved in some prime office buildings. Average prime office rents were stable with minimal upward change, at RM6.12 per sq ft per month in Q1 2011. With 13.2 million sq ft of new office space in the pipeline between 2011 and 2014, the outlook for the sector is expected to be soft in favour of tenants.

On a positive note, the take-up of strata titled office seemed to be good, with strong response to launches. The Q Sentral at KL Sentral was soft launched at an indicative price of RM1,400 per sq ft, and we noted strong pre-sale at KL Eco City.

Mr Brian Koh, Executive Director of Consulting & Research commented: “Launches of stratified offices is seeing good sales due to latent demand being built up over the last few years and this is a bright spot for the office market.”

Retail

With a sales growth of 8.4 per cent for the whole 2010, the occupancy of prime shopping centres remains high and the average occupancy is around 87 per cent in Q1 2011. Rental rates of most malls remain stable.

Overall, the performance of mall for the rest of 2011 is likely to be mixed with selective prime malls continuing to out-perform but at a slower pace compared to last year. This is due to the tighter credit cards control and the increasing inflation rate which the appreciation of the Ringgit may not be able to mitigate.

Residential

The market for prime condominium remains active with developers being optimistic with new launches planned for the remainder of the year. Encouraging take-up rates were noted in the few new high-end launches such as The Capers by YTL in Sentul which set a new benchmark price in the area. Although this clearly indicates that buying sentiment remains positive, affordability seemed to be declining.

Overall, the average price of high-end condominiums in Kuala Lumpur is stable at RM603 per sq ft in Q1 2011. Average rents declined marginally to RM3.55 per sq ft per month from the previous quarter of RM3.58.

Mr Eddy Wong, Head of Residential Marketing commented: “Demand continues to be relatively selective notwithstanding some concerns about new completions having some difficulties in leasing up.”

Note: -
DTZ is a global real estate services firm with offices in 140 cities and 42 countries (across Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific and the Americas). The firm provides advice and on-the-ground delivery to investors, developers, corporate and public sector occupiers and financial intermediaries. DTZ works with clients across the breadth of their real estate needs, spanning all real estate sectors and encompassing Investment Agency, Leasing Agency and Brokerage, Property Management, Project Management and Building Consultancy, Valuation, Investment and Asset Management, Consulting, and Research. The parent company, DTZ Holdings plc, has been listed on the London Stock Exchange since 1987. www.dtz.com


http://www.iproperty.com.my/news/3440/DTZ-...-Remains-Steady

before putting all yr money and debt into prop, pls think about having enough to eat and keep yr car or not!!

ok, i am sure some will say everything still cheap in malayisa incl homes...



http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...rchasing-power/

15k RMB is meaning the fellow is in manegerial position, so bank factor in "side income" normally 3-5x of their basic salary.

thanks for the info.
would appreciate if someone can convert into one currency for comparison.
and does singapore honda civic really cost SGD145k??? i always thought malaysia car is the most expensive ler.

Let me do some comparison table based on percentage.



*this only applicable to average Auditor with average salary as claimed from the data

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 19 2011, 12:43 PM

300k in Melaka is nothing compare to >500k in KL.. price in Melaka is pretty stagnant for the passed few years.. despite property booming this few years, houses in Melaka still did not appreciate more than 100k .. Klang Valley and increased more than 200k..

The important factor we should analyze is cheap financing rather than property price...

TheDoer, I know Melaka houses were selling 240k 5 years ago.. given financing 5 years ago (before US subprime and Malaysia economy was doing pretty well) was BLR+1% (6.75+1 = 7.5%), given 10% downpayment, loaning 216k, 30 years tenure turns out to be RM1547/month...

what about now? you mention house in Melaka is 328k, given current financing BLR-2.3% (6.3-2.3=4%), given 10% downpayment, loaning 295k, 30 years tenure turns out to be RM1409/month, montly installment is even cheaper than 5 years ago despite price had escalated so much..

Even BLR will raise to 7%, your interest rate is still only 4.7% and your installment is still on par with 5 years ago.. the only thing is your downpaymnet will be more than 5 years ago (developer giving 10% discount anyway, so what the neck)...

I just want to point out that, despite house price had escalated, but financing still remain affordable and even cheaper even though house price had increase.. since you can afford RM1500/month anyway, why not developer increase the price and reap the profit?

Is bank losing money my giving BLR-2.3%? just read banks financial report, they are earning every year and profit getting more and more..

Will property drop? NO....

1) as long as cheap financing exist in the market, it will prop price raise or sustain..
2) Loan tenure getting longer and longer.. 20yrs > 30 yrs > 40yrs .. now Hongleong and Maybank even launch the new scheme, where 1st 30yrs you only pay down 50% of the installment, while the rest 50% is being paid lumpsum after 30 yrs.. soon I foresee 2 generation loan.... Tenure getting longer and longer is a sign of getting monthly installment lower and lower.. and you know this will create prop price to go higher and higher..
3) There is only that much of limit to regulate financing.. over regulating will hurt the 1st time buyers and also slowing down the property market which the government will try to avoid.. giving 100% loan for salary below 3k for 220k below prop is also a sign not to slow down the prop market while keep owning a house reachable for low income group.. 70%LTV is the best they can do for the time being, being a season investor, there is no stopping from them because they got so used to it.. If cant invest expensive houses, they may opt for investing houses that are <1 mil, houses category which are for the masses, "rich get richer, poor get poorer".
4) Government will still keep the prop market vibrant at least until 2020.. In order to get into high income country, income per-population has to be increased.. As mention, "rich get richer, poor get poorer", I foresee wealth gap getting wider.. 10% of Msia population commands 90% of the country's wealth, while 90% commands 10% of the wealth, so once the 10% rich ppl gets richer, on average our country's income per-population increase (total income / total population).. wah-lah.. we are now high income nation (on number looks nice), but what about the 90% population?? <- anyway, this is just my opinion

want to ask..
if the bank loan agreement stated BLR - 2.3
if let say.. the bank loss money..
will they have the control/power to change our BLR -2.3 to BLR + 1 ??
just want to know only..
As i know, they won't be able to change the -2.3 to +1 one.. am i ritE?

As per-contract, no.. the +1 -2.3 cannot be changed..

雪隆辦公樓交易連續5年下滑
投資致富 2011-04-18 13:44
過去5年來，巴生河流域辦公室的重大交易幾乎出現逐年下滑窘境，除了2008年錄得37億8千萬令吉成交額。

不過，2009年卻顯著走低至18億1千萬令吉，並進一步挫跌至2010年的11億1千萬令吉。

同時，交易宗數從2006年涉及的26棟大廈，逐年減低至2010年的10棟大廈。

值得注意的是，外資的買賣活動也變得越來越淡靜，從2008年的51%下滑至2009年的9%，歸咎於全球金融風暴發生後，外資開始撤回各自的國家，對國內的產業購興欠缺。

不過，隨經濟漸漸復甦，外資的買賣活動重新攫取活力，佔20%比重。




星洲日報／投資致富‧房產傳真‧2011.04.17

no need to convert into one currency. For example, A Malaysian earns RM2000 a month and a singaporean earns SGD2000 a month.

Broaband in Singapore costs SGD68.9 a month will take up 68.9/2000 = 3.4% of the Singaporean's monthly income.
Broaband in M'sia costs RM149 a month will take up 149/2000 = 7.5% of the Malaysian's monthly income.

and just apply the rest. Of course, if one earns SGD and buy everything in RM, his purchasing power is many many times higher. But if one earns RM and wanna live in SGD, purchasing power drop many many times as well. This is the difference between a developed country that has strong currency and a developing one.

The point is: people at different country earn different currencies.

just need to put in the average income of an Uni graduate etc then we can tell the living standard.

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Added on April 19, 2011, 1:19 pmwell done +1


maybe the research house should input Crime Rate as well. This is also a cost of living

This post has been edited by godutch: Apr 19 2011, 01:19 PM