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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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Iceman74
post Mar 3 2011, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Mar 3 2011, 01:35 PM)
Thanks for ur info.. oh man ! need to fork out that much money when wanna do extension of leasehold..  =.=
haih.. some said doesn't matter leasehold / free hold.. seems like not reli correct..  sad.gif
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that why freehold have the advantage, not to mention the bank will loan you anytime with freehold title but not leasehold & the appreciation difference between them. There are also the type of owners living condition difference between freehold taman & leasehold taman.
Iceman74
post Mar 25 2011, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Mar 25 2011, 04:24 PM)
oKAY...let's us awaiting for property prices' drop. also wait for food and beverage prices' drop. also wait for rental of rooms drop. Also for petrol prices' drop. also utility bills drop.

thumbup.gif
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our income drop first b4 can dream seeing this tongue.gif
Iceman74
post Apr 13 2011, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 11 2011, 01:37 PM)
hahaha.
my aunt is subsale.
original price is rm30k!
i think that was about 30 to 40 years ago lah.

PS: say current value at rm800k
that's rm740k profit over say 40 years.
that still works out to >30% compounded annual return. rclxub.gif
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at that time there are no such 90% loan, the most is 50%-60% if approved. 30k downpayment at that time is like 300k now. Not many ppl can have that much cash reserve.
Iceman74
post Apr 18 2011, 10:07 PM

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the way i see it,
buying properties are good for hedging against inflation but not a good investment in long run. Property price now are way too high & abnormal even for 5 figure income.
As time pass, properties will lost it value if
1. Better transport (why need to buy KV area when can travel fast & efficient like in Japan)
2. Education level improve (Improve knowledge & income but will produce less offspring or even happy being single = demand low)
3. Technology advancement (If in 10 years, technology give u benefit to work form home but with no drop of performance)

All these thing can happens or already happening now...it just need time to be a norms going forward


Remember this "a good properties investment only realised if someone wanted to make become a home"

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Apr 18 2011, 10:10 PM
Iceman74
post Apr 18 2011, 10:52 PM

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the way i see it,
buying properties are good for hedging against inflation but not a good investment in long run. Property price now are way too high & abnormal even for 5 figure income.
As time pass, properties will lost it value if

1. Better transport (why need to buy KV area when can travel fast & efficient like in Japan)

UNFORTUNETALY MALAYSIA IS NOT JAPAN, JAPAN IS NOT MALAYSIA. EVEN THOUGH WITH BETTER TRANSPORTATION, PROPERTY PRICE STILL WILL BE HEADING NORTH, JUST LIKE SINGAPORE, AND HONGKONG. IT IS NO FUN USING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IN MALAYSIA AT LEAST NOW AND ALSO FORESEEABLE IN FUTURE.

[COLOR=blue]SG & HK are diff in a sense of size limitation, you just can't grow land. If you are old enough, you will know in year 1970-80, stay in klang n work in KL are impossible but now, some are stay in Seremban work in KL is do-able. Better road connectivity & cars can drive faster are here. Things will improve in future, maybe later but definitely will arrive.[COLOR=blue]

2. Education level improve (Improve knowledge & income but will produce less offspring or even happy being single = demand low)

BUYING PROPERTY NOT LIMITED TO MARRIED COUPLE. EVEN NOW SINGLE / "DIAMOND WONG TIGER" (LOL) ALSO KEEP BUYING THEIR NEST. THUS IN FUTURE, MORE AND MORE SMALL NEST (400SF TO 600SF) WILL BE BUILT. FIRST, TO COPE WITH HIGH COST. SECOND, TO MAKE IT MORE AFFORDABLE TO PEOPLE.
[COLOR=blue]I don't about you, if the trend continue i believe everyone will own more than 1 properties. remember only 1 person or 1 family need A home. A couple can stay 1 home, not 2 house. IF 20M become a couple, then it means 10M homes, not 20M.[COLOR=blue]


3. Technology advancement (If in 10 years, technology give u benefit to work form home but with no drop of performance)

ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ALWAYS WELCOME AND MAKE PEOPLE LIFE BETTER. HOWEVER, WHETHER ONE PERFORM OR NOT, HAVE TO DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL EFFORTS. HOWEVER, I DON'T SEE THIS WILL AFFECT HOUSE DEMAND?
[COLOR=blue] Like i said, in '70 ppl do biz within township, '80 & '90 between states & currently now, we are doing biz international (biz no longer need big big warehouse to store products, almost all using JIT method if possible)
Most of my clients don't need A Class Office Locationeven they can afford it.
They can be a shoplot in suburb area, nearer to the place they live & the staff live. There are already some MNC option to do 3days at home 2 day at office arrangement for non-essential operation staffs. [COLOR=blue]

All these thing can happens or already happening now...it just need time to be a norms going forward
Remember this "a good properties investment only realised if someone wanted to make become a home"






MY CONCLUSION- FOOD, DRINK AND SHELTER ARE AMONGST THE MUST THINGS TO HUMAN BEING.

FOOD PRICE INCREASE;
DRINK AS WELL;
WHY NOT SHELTER?[COLOR=blue] Shelter needed is still for A home, not 100 properties [COLOR=blue]


Added on April 18, 2011, 11:02 pm
QUOTE(eugene jk @ Apr 18 2011, 10:46 PM)
The way i see, ppl are always upgrading life style, looking for a better environment as time passes by.. apartment -> terrace -> semi-D -> Bungalow.. from kampung to suburbs, or from urban to subsurbs.. As long as ppl are still moving around, there is always opportunity..
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if you do ask around those already retired ppls, if you will notice they want to downgrade to smaller house as all their kids grow up & move out. Reason = simpler to take care the house tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Apr 18 2011, 11:02 PM
Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 18 2011, 11:10 PM)
yeah....You now A HOME, then your children = Many HOMES

when we old time coming, old folk HOME is waiting for us!..LOL

p/s: I still see my boss purchased BIG HOME
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depend on which kind of boss you talking about
if he is yr immediate superior & well verse in financial planning, then why not buy if he see the needs to use bigger home
if he the boss of the company & for investment purpose, from what i know now, most of the bosses that i came to know are using the company cashflow to "goreng" properties & this is a dangerous situation for you as an employee. If his biz got into trouble, i think you will know who will suffer first & last. sweat.gif
Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 19 2011, 09:14 AM)
Talking about a genuine home owner, when one buys another house to upgrade/downgrade, he also dumps a house in the market too.  Therefore we can't use this as a means to indicate that props will continue to sell.

When a smaller house, is changed to a bigger house, this means that we have a bigger appetite for land, which indicates a market demand. But like what iceman said, in the end, we end up dumping all our props and downgrade. This offsets it.

What this means is that the land and materials that was needed to build a bungalow, can be used to build 3 smaller houses. Which therefore means, less prop demand.
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exactly, all those property investors/guru think that properties expired/ceased to existed by the time they sell whistling.gif


Added on April 19, 2011, 9:46 am
QUOTE(endau02 @ Apr 19 2011, 09:39 AM)
Well for point 3, office rent will suffer not house. cost cutting drives bosses to allow employeees to work from home
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but do you think i need to buy my home near to the work place now. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Apr 19 2011, 09:46 AM
Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 19 2011, 03:20 PM)
We achieve high wage status by printing another 0 at the back of our currency...  a hell of a good that is  rolleyes.gif
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haha....later yr teh tarik n nasi lemak also add another 0 on the bills cry.gif

maybe the only way increase purchasing power is let our ringgit rise hmm.gif
Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 19 2011, 03:45 PM)
But you will have to forfeit your booking downpayment right?
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depend on who you talk to..base on my previous case, can refund but after some thinking decided go for endlot


Added on April 19, 2011, 3:57 pm
QUOTE(edwardsiow @ Apr 19 2011, 03:54 PM)
Prices will be adjusted when those developers stop to "support" the prices and wait for other people to continue supporting the prices...if the people can't absorb the prices, the prices will drop to a level which people can absorb....like stock market...
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yup... end of the day, developers do need sales to survives

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Apr 19 2011, 03:57 PM
Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 19 2011, 04:20 PM)
a currency can only appreciate against others if there is a lot of foreign exchange buying the currency, i.e. foreign inv coming in an/or high production exports to earn foreign currency. good example is sgd - this island attracts lots of foreign money, tourist$ and foreigners buying the props.
if you look at the rm performace in the last few years, it has depr against all major currecncies except the usd - that's because usa released >1.5 trillion new money via quantitative easing to relieve themselves of the massive debt and to keep the liquidity going, knowing inflation will rise, which has happened, of course. then again, usa is a big economy that can hold better and longer.
until msia incr productio&productivity, export more, attract more fdi (and not capital flight as we know), rise in int rates - no chance rm will rise. fyi, it is now fast approaching sgd 1 = rm2.5. pushing property prices with easy lending for local buyers does not help the strength of the currency.

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i tot someone here said alot foreign buyers buying up our properties cos is dirt cheap tongue.gif
look like not enough to push increase in RM

btw i really dunno what will happen to property if Gov do intro GST
Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 19 2011, 04:35 PM)
But that is already different from what some of the other bulls seem to be saying. One mentioned that it is always a good time to buy property in KL. Doesn't that imply confidence that prices will always go up? I'm asking these questions here to gauge the general sentiment. My conclusion is that the bears now strongly outweigh the bulls, which was not true even one year ago, and even bulls like yourself see a turning point on the horizon.

Anyway, thanks for the information.
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i always remember the old saying "when everyone including auntie/uncle rushing in, i will be the person at the nearest exit or out of here"

i already sold off those not so good properties around end of 2009. Those that i have now will have no material impact on me even if it does fall 30%. If it does a non-stop rise in price, well i really pity those that not yet buy a home but that ain't gonna happen as far as i see it(price rising).
Iceman74
post Apr 20 2011, 07:23 PM

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u underestimate the power of saving the Chinese have tongue.gif
most of them are cash rich(dun ask how they got the money) until dunno where to put(cannot put in the bank cos not bersih enough)

try go Genting, see how much they bet....pengsan, me fast fast simsui
Iceman74
post May 6 2011, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ May 6 2011, 04:46 PM)
Agreed. Some of them will also panic if they see market price is similar or even lower then their buying price.
At this point in time the only thing in their mind is dreaming about how much profit they will make.
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it will be long long dream tongue.gif
Gov are starting to notice after all major developers sold most of their developments & lockin their profit for 2 -3 years. Time for Gov playacting Robbin Hood for GE jor whistling.gif
Iceman74
post May 6 2011, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(staticxtreme @ May 6 2011, 08:20 PM)
hi guys i like the debates going on but what is RPGT and VP?
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RPGT = Real Property Gain Tax
VP = Vacant Possession
Iceman74
post May 7 2011, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ May 7 2011, 12:55 PM)
16mx50m is not a low cost house but a mansion ler!!!!

1m=3.2808ft
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hahaha....please do tell me where/when can buy it the so call low cost home...i really need 8500 sqft low cost house notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by Iceman74: May 7 2011, 06:58 PM
Iceman74
post May 9 2011, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ May 9 2011, 05:11 PM)
1 child till reach 25 yrs = 1 condo (cost RM200k - RM300k)  whistling.gif
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how i wish is true sad.gif
Iceman74
post May 20 2011, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 20 2011, 09:09 AM)
CF stand for ?
I think i decided to go for lower MLTA.. cus the property i bought, i dun think i will stay there whole life.. so if i plan to get another property > might have to sell this property out so that i have money to get another (landed).. then if i sell it, i will lose the 19k++ x 2 (2 person) ..
or if by any chance after 3 years bank offer BLR - 3.x, and i want to do refinance, i'll lose my MRTA as well... as stated from my friend(banker) MLTA do refinance will not lose my money..
Good point bro.. i think i will take ur advise.. planning to get 200k MLTA for myself and 100k MLTA for my gf..
counted already.. each month have to fork out RM200++ which is far more better than 600++ (400k for me and 400k for my gf)

Thank u all for giving me some guidance~
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why u think that you will burn 19k x2 for the MRTA?
you can get refund if you sold your house earlier
each of the house that i sold, i get refund
if it really a burden, you can option a shorter MRTA duration or 50% coverage each

This post has been edited by Iceman74: May 20 2011, 09:58 AM
Iceman74
post May 23 2011, 05:32 PM

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dunno about others but my guts feeling there are something bad bound to happen after GE.

Singapore & Thailand already started/start election, Malaysia going to happen soon, G's are hiding something from respective citizens.

Those tax seminar attended already point toward reintroduced back RPGT. Malaysia G decreasing subsidies as time goes by.

For me, if property prices does goes up, then i mah abandon upgrade my crib house dream next year & settled ASAP on my existing loans.
Iceman74
post May 25 2011, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ May 25 2011, 10:43 AM)
By right, petrol should follow market rate. We are producing oil doesn't mean we are free to abuse cheap petrol cause this natural resource does not reproduce, you can't plant it like fruits. Matter of time we will run out of oil.

Younger generations now get to taste sins of past generation. Stupid policies implemented in the 80' still carry out today screwing the entire nation.

Discovery of crude oil in the 70' ---> production of Potong, Twin Tower, highways, Putrajaya, KLIA etc etc.

Some of these projects are good of course. But a lot of them were over built, wastage, should have done in stages. Not yet mentioned inflated exploded budget.

Cheap oil ---> Potong cannot export ----> encourge local to buy more, cannot raise oil else cannot sell ---> forget about public transportation ---> buy more Potong ----> choke up the roads/highways ----> no choice Potong cannot export locals pls buy buy ----> built more highways for Potong ----> oh sh8T ----> oil high Usd100 ----> we are running out of oil cum Potong cannot sell cum highway jam out cum public transportation in sorry state, continue talk kok for yrs everything in wonderland blah blah

You get what I mean?

The other day spoke to a retired uncle in his fifties. He too saying we are screwed, many unaware who started this. Mentioned who else but the legendary dr. Those who live thru the 60', 70' era will able to see the rapid changes in the 80'

Yup, many think this old man is great. Don't forget with oil money you can do wonder. See how Dubai transform for nothing, a dessert to a wonderland. But story never end yet. How is Dubai now? Just bare empty buildings.

With oil money, any leaders with some intellegent can do wonders.

Question:- can the leader use the oil money to development the nation and the people who can self sustain with or without the oil money in the future. Obviously not. Instead, giving freebies and tongkats so politicians can stay in power as long as they can. In turn, going into self destruction mode. Many unaware how much damages to the mindset, policies and future of the country cause by a leader in the 80'.

Certainly NO thks to this Tun.
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well said thumbup.gif

problem now, can our politicians have the willpower overcome these long overdue problems b4 too late or they just swipe under the carpet again doh.gif
Iceman74
post May 25 2011, 09:20 PM

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if there are situation push up the properies price now, i'm sure if the right situation occur, it might push it down also

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