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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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lucerne
post Feb 27 2011, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 27 2011, 02:30 PM)
we are living in a selfish & greedy world
sometimes I dun really understand, I know many people are complaining the rise in goods and property price, but at the same time, dun want to change their habit and life style, as what the article mentioned, many spend vacation travelling "every year", seems like a basic needs
At least by savings a little bit more by not travelling and spending unnecessary items so often, I think Malaysia is still a good country to stay, above average
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i think the article trying to said due to point 1, 3, 4 ; life will become very bitter. even you can self control #2, u still can not have good life as old days (your grand). so in near future (>2020?) it will end up u dun even have the choice for #2 (due to 1, 3, 4) - mean u r forced to live like your grands (no annual tour, take bicycle, no entertainment, no new clothing etc) but life is still extremely difficult, all your earning go to NECCESSITIES ONLY eg food, medical, insurance, house, education etc due to 1,3,4. you dun know how WALL STREET ppl will manipulate food, house, medical, insurance etc. maybe infuture u need to pay for water, oxygen, time etc (now is almost free). the more your income (as Najib promised) the more smarter/greed the capitalists - end up everyone suffered except the super rich/politician. (coz politician can easily hv $$ from capitalists). so in short, aim to become a politician for better future generations. (the higher rank the better eg Hosni Mubarak, Gadhafi, Ali etc ). that is why so many fights in Msia elections - our politicians are smart too. no matter how hardwork you in business /employment , all will be eaten up.. even your hard earned x props will be "swallow" by them. dun ask me how they "played up" your props, coz i m not from wall street. so better to practice to live simple life as a monk (无欲无求),be healthy /dun sick, stay near river (for water, fish etc), haha..just joking. dun worry, be happy...cheers

1.全球化后遺症

2.物質誘惑多

3.虛擬貨幣泡沫化

4.金融市場發展過速

lucerne
post Mar 1 2011, 08:38 PM

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yes, property loan shrinked every where eg Sg, HK, China etc
so now borrowers are king? can request more goodies..
lucerne
post Mar 7 2011, 05:42 PM

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Yen has appreciated about 3x since 1986. pls see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_yen
the graph is very similar to above prop chart, from 220 to 80.....matched USD/Yen trend.. there is some delay effect abt 5 years from 1985-1989... USD/Yen and prop price

how the above can apply to RM which has yoyo from 2.5 to 3.8 and now 3 ?
2.5 to 3.8 (RM depreciate 50%) - 1997
3.8 to 3 (RM appreciate 30%) - 2007 to 2011
2.5 to now 3 (net depreciate 20%) - 1997- 2011
any delay effects from turning points 2007, 1997?

pls discuz.
lucerne
post Mar 9 2011, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(IMHO @ Mar 8 2011, 01:12 PM)
I would say in Japan the prices had reached a level much higher then the cost of construction... that is why it is at current levels in relation to cost...our current property prices are partly due to speculation...
Buyers/Investors should be smart and apply a bench mark and not just accept what the market offer... developers are all going highend bcos they can charge premium prices...and buyer are supporting such high prices...which are going to be like Japan in 1981.
Just my bench mark:-
in year 2000 price of land leasehold rm35 psf...now rm80-120psf.
it is reasonable if u factor in the landscape, roads, etc, provided by the housing scheme.
for building in 2000 , rm 80-150psf...now rm200-280psf...and material n labour cost only up 20-30%.
this indicate that the prices are at a high premium for developers..
and they are making a killing...

so when the buying stops the killing stops...
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maybe now developers have to feed more $$ to the corrupted officials vs those old days. seems bribes also inflation oso coz need more $ to show off their posh lifestyle mah. look at the bali styled khir and zakaria mansions!! these are just tips of the iceberg!!
i oso heard some developers need to build school, masjid, flyover, bridge, widen the main or access road etc for the govt.
lucerne
post Mar 9 2011, 05:04 PM

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for landed prop, it is difficult to rent out if it is out of town. so they normally refused to invest. at least they can have some rental to cover their monthly installment.
lucerne
post Mar 11 2011, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Mar 11 2011, 02:11 PM)
lol.. i tot Wahaha is the sound of laughter..
nice name  tongue.gif
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he is the one who conned Danone /France to become the richest man in china. this is last JV in China, after this incident all foreign co prefer to have 100% ownership in China.
lucerne
post Mar 13 2011, 07:11 PM

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developers willing to build house/apartment <220 but they also increase those house price >220k to compensate their losses. the more low cost house the higher the mid to hi end house prices lor. the hi end will have higher impact coz rich will need to subsidy the poor.
lucerne
post Mar 15 2011, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Mar 15 2011, 01:52 PM)
Agree    rclxms.gif

They can all go ahead and buy the speculated areas, just don't start speculating on the medium cost homes.


Added on March 15, 2011, 2:00 pmNotes from Melaka:    Previously there was all the hu ha about price hike.  and houses all sold out. 

Recently I saw in the megazines, there are some more unsold units from the projects I went to see half a year ago.  lol.

Is this a sign of the lack of demand?
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Many big deelopers with good holding power will keep many units/floors for themself (eg better view) and release when the price is higher. in Melaka case, pls advise if the unsold units selling at old price or higer price?? if it is still at same price, then something wrong and alarming..

but in KL case, most of the reserved units are selling at higher prices.
lucerne
post Mar 16 2011, 11:24 PM

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i think the 220k scheme is oni aim for govt servants. just like court mammoth case, if no deposit needed (just prove u work with govt ), all can start buy new furnitures, tv, hifi etc.
the more this ppl are in debt, the longer they will stick to bn-- hope more goodies/support will come. look at felda u will know.

the govt oso want to impressed the poors that govt is care for them.

for u and me work in private sector, better earn/save more to own your house. 3k salary cant do wonder for u.. trust me, u need more for living.


lucerne
post Mar 17 2011, 02:48 PM

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japan definitely need more building materials eg steel, cement, wood for reconstruction in the next 3-5 years. so expect more increases on housing. reconstruction is good for japan economy since Japan construction has been stagnant for more than 20 years. all buildings in Japan look very old. it is time to build new one. Japan govt now has valid reasons to spend big $ for reconstruction as oppositions has no objection now.
lucerne
post Mar 17 2011, 03:26 PM

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japan high demand on steel, cement, wood will push price up. msia timber, plywood, MDF prices has already up recently. same to global steel price etc
lucerne
post Mar 17 2011, 06:02 PM

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japan, a 3rd largest world econ will definitely need to reconstruction the township within 2-3 years. (jsut like kobe town). japan construction is dead in the past 10-20 years. now will be a big pull for the building materials. it is unlike Aus flood, Indonesia and China ulu ulu 's quake etc
lucerne
post Mar 18 2011, 09:15 AM

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no matter how the radiation will subside/(isotop will decap very fast) after a short time period. all buildings including factory need to rebuild again. all business need to back to usual, dun forget Japan is no2 largest global economy , they cant afford to stall eg mitsubishi, sumitomo etc. the demand of building materials will shot up this 1-3 years and force materials price to go up. so be prepare house price will not come down within 3 years. strong yen is good for them as they need to import lot of materials within this rebuild period.
lucerne
post Mar 20 2011, 08:50 PM

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today nanyang also reported DTZ Singapore (page b15) forecast KL will be #1 prop investment in Asia.
lucerne
post Mar 20 2011, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(ivanachang @ Mar 20 2011, 08:06 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


goreng lagi  rclxms.gif  ..  Condo units + Million homes is empty now  ..  need people to buy  thumbup.gif
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tell me where is the empty houses???
in KL or near KL, dun tell me the ulu ulu places...my area (Setapak) when a new condo VP-ed , all the units willl be filled in just few months. i think it is the same for other part of KL/PJ. i hardly see any empty units (old and new condo) in my area.
pls take note KL will have 7 millions population by 2020 by NEM (now 3, 4mil?)...it may be from the kampong, small towns eg bidor, kampar etc or immigrants (professional or illegal) and they all need house.. and kampong ppl want to upgrade to taman houses.
it is similar in Sg, when population increased last 3-4 years (from 4mil to 5mil, 30% up) and so the prop price goes up too..

dun just simply say without findings..


lucerne
post Mar 30 2011, 01:29 PM

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HK's Li Kah Shing encourage ppl to buy prop now to fight inflation

李嘉诚吁港人买楼抗通胀
http://www.zaobao.com.sg/cz/cz110330_001.shtml

(2011-03-30)

● 戴庆成 香港报道
  被外界誉为“李超人”的李嘉诚,昨天一如既往,不改其健谈本色,对投资香港楼市者指点迷津。

  长和系主席李嘉诚表示,如果市民购买住宅用作自住,是绝对没有错,因为通胀未来一定会继续出现,也会更加严重。

  李嘉诚昨日在长和系业绩记者会上表示,目前楼市的二手市场向好,香港市民对楼市仍然有需求,相信通胀将会来临,若市民有足够资金,有三成至四成的楼价作为首期,买单位自住最合适。  他指出,在过去几十年,即使最高价时买入单位,以现时计算仍然是便宜。


lucerne
post Mar 31 2011, 03:17 PM

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the problem many oversea prefer to park their $ in msia high end condo even it is empty coz their FD rate/T-bill at home is very very low.
Tokyo, Singapore, ANZ -near to zero or less than 1%
HK, China, Taiwan, Korea, US, Europe - most less than 2%
if the rental yield is 3-4% they still think that it is high..., eg a million prop rent at 3-4k, it is easy to rent out at 3-4k/mth. some prefer to keep it empty as they dun want the hassle or they just want the capital appreciation. (that is why u see lot of empty units) remember they are about half to 1million Msian (esp Chinese) work oversea (rich countries and higher income) who prefer to buy prop in KL for retirement or passive income when return home. (as they still keep Msia passport) for them it is better to invest in kl prop which they are familiar with. These Chinese traditionally like to invest in prop vs stock, UT etc. they can buy KL prop like kacang putih coz oversea prop is much more expensive. they know how prop can make $ (from oversea experience) and they always look for long term /retirement plan etc. so i dun thin high end prop in KL will drop coz holding power is solid.
for mid end - the demand is even stronger driven by high end condo. Demand from locals (town or kampong), married couple, graduate, investors, speculators (eg business man, directors of listed co etc) KLSE has more than 1000 co, if each has 10 directors , their children, family members + biz man/woman in KL...+ those who untung from previos prop (some go refinance), + courage /flame from prop gurus ...the demand is super high.
this is very similar to bangkok , jakarta, ho chi minh, where the prop is relatively cheaper vs rich countries. so as "coolguy" has mentioned, if nothing serious happen in msia eg riot, war etc. the prop price will stay and still up up with no end. u will never go wrong if u invest in what chinese said -衣食 “住” 行.. clothing or something to wear eg jewellery, fashioncetc, food industry, properties, transportation biz. the demand is damn solid. unless our society become communist. so long we still live in capitalisme world. invest prop will never go wrong.
lucerne
post Apr 6 2011, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 6 2011, 09:34 AM)
And also, this time the Sarawak Election will also have some impact on the property scene in Malaysia. 

Ok, BN is expected to lose more seats this time to PR.  And if the more shocking news, if BN lose 2/3 majority in Sarawak, it will create an "uncertain" environment in the economy.  I bet alot of developers will not launch their projects if BN gets unfavorable result in Sarawak election.  And if BN gets unfavorable result in Sarawak election, BN will put off the GE later, maybe till early next year, this will create more uncertainty for the investors and developers.  Alot of decisions on project launching and property investments will be put off after the GE.  Well that's my view.
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what say u on 308 election when BN lose 2/3 majority to PR but prop price up up??
lucerne
post Apr 7 2011, 12:38 PM

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about 50% voted prop will increase 10-20% in the next 3 months.
25%voted price stayed, 25% voted decline.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/component/p...ang-valley.html

lucerne
post Apr 7 2011, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Apr 7 2011, 10:09 AM)
Looks like loan applications have peaked already even though there have been many launches lately.
This is an indicator that it is more difficult now to sell any unit then a few months back.

Once demand weakens it is quite clear what will happen to prices.
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new launch usually buyer apply only to one bank (free legal fee from developer etc), for subsales most buyer to shop for the best deal, so buyer will submit as many applications as possible. also there are many mortgage consultants around this few years. which give buyer more choices and to submit more applications. lately when i submit loan application to 3 different banks, to my surprise, my CITOS recorded 3 approved loans ..so i think the recent bank negara report is meaningless. the number of loan applications and approvals did not reflect the facts. i remember those old day when i bought a house i do not have many choice for bank loan. but now ONE property can have 3-5 loan applications or approval.

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