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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 19 2011, 01:15 PM)
no need to convert into one currency. For example, A Malaysian earns RM2000 a month and a singaporean earns SGD2000 a month.

Broaband in Singapore costs SGD68.9 a month will take up 68.9/2000 = 3.4% of the Singaporean's monthly income.
Broaband in M'sia costs RM149 a month will take up 149/2000 = 7.5% of the Malaysian's monthly income.

and just apply the rest. Of course, if one earns SGD and buy everything in RM, his purchasing power is many many times higher. But if one earns RM and wanna live in SGD, purchasing power drop many many times as well. This is the difference between a developed country that has strong currency and a developing one.

The point is: people at different country earn different currencies.

just need to put in the average income of an Uni graduate etc then we can tell the living standard.


Added on April 19, 2011, 1:19 pm

well done +1
maybe the research house should input Crime Rate as well. This is also a cost of living  tongue.gif
*
actually the data only reinforce my statement that the problem ain't higher property price. it's our salary!!
despite the average salary shown in the table (even i have doubt that an average auditor earns as much (say about 5 years experience?) but i could be wrong since i'm not in that line), the salary is one of the lowest among all even without conversion. as for consumables, malaysia consistently ranks at almost the top for each category. this underlies the biggest problem. low income, high cost of living.
guess something drastic needs to kick in before all hell breaks loose.
to me, the only sustainable way is high income. big question is, how do we achieve this??
property101
post Apr 19 2011, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Apr 19 2011, 12:18 PM)
300k in Melaka is nothing compare to >500k in KL.. price in Melaka is pretty stagnant for the passed few years.. despite property booming this few years, houses in Melaka still did not appreciate more than 100k .. Klang Valley and increased more than 200k..

The important factor we should analyze is cheap financing rather than property price...

TheDoer, I know Melaka houses were selling 240k 5 years ago.. given financing 5 years ago (before US subprime and Malaysia economy was doing pretty well) was BLR+1% (6.75+1 = 7.5%), given 10% downpayment, loaning 216k, 30 years tenure turns out to be RM1547/month...

what about now? you mention house in Melaka is 328k, given current financing BLR-2.3% (6.3-2.3=4%), given 10% downpayment, loaning 295k, 30 years tenure turns out to be RM1409/month, montly installment is even cheaper than 5 years ago despite price had escalated so much..

Even BLR will raise to 7%, your interest rate is still only 4.7% and your installment is still on par with 5 years ago.. the only thing is your downpaymnet will be more than 5 years ago (developer giving 10% discount anyway, so what the neck)...

I just want to point out that, despite house price had escalated, but financing still remain affordable and even cheaper even though house price had increase.. since you can afford RM1500/month anyway, why not developer increase the price and reap the profit?

Is bank losing money my giving BLR-2.3%? just read banks financial report, they are earning every year and profit getting more and more..

Will property drop? NO....

1) as long as cheap financing exist in the market, it will prop price raise or sustain..
2) Loan tenure getting longer and longer.. 20yrs > 30 yrs > 40yrs .. now Hongleong and Maybank even launch the new scheme, where 1st 30yrs you only pay down 50% of the installment, while the rest 50% is being paid lumpsum after 30 yrs.. soon I foresee 2 generation loan.... Tenure getting longer and longer is a sign of getting monthly installment lower and lower.. and you know this will create prop price to go higher and higher..
3) There is only that much of limit to regulate financing.. over regulating will hurt the 1st time buyers and also slowing down the property market which the government will try to avoid.. giving 100% loan for salary below 3k for 220k below prop is also a sign not to slow down the prop market while keep owning a house reachable for low income group.. 70%LTV is the best they can do for the time being, being a season investor, there is no stopping from them because they got so used to it.. If cant invest expensive houses, they may opt for investing houses that are <1 mil, houses category which are for the masses, "rich get richer, poor get poorer".
4) Government will still keep the prop market vibrant at least until 2020.. In order to get into high income country, income per-population has to be increased.. As mention, "rich get richer, poor get poorer", I foresee wealth gap getting wider.. 10% of Msia population commands 90% of the country's wealth, while 90% commands 10% of the wealth, so once the 10% rich ppl gets richer, on average our country's income per-population increase (total income / total population).. wah-lah.. we are now high income nation (on number looks nice), but what about the 90% population?? <- anyway, this is just my opinion
*
interesting analysis
base on your argument, i'm curious to know what cause the current cheap financing and what will trigger the back the expensive financing like BLR +1.x
TheDoer
post Apr 19 2011, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Apr 19 2011, 12:18 PM)
300k in Melaka is nothing compare to >500k in KL.. price in Melaka is pretty stagnant for the passed few years.. despite property booming this few years, houses in Melaka still did not appreciate more than 100k .. Klang Valley and increased more than 200k..

The important factor we should analyze is cheap financing rather than property price...

TheDoer, I know Melaka houses were selling 240k 5 years ago.. given financing 5 years ago (before US subprime and Malaysia economy was doing pretty well) was BLR+1% (6.75+1 = 7.5%), given 10% downpayment, loaning 216k, 30 years tenure turns out to be RM1547/month...
*
I think you only have half the equation. As I said, as a KL person you will be comparing it with your own salary.

In melaka, With the exception of 2 or 3 companies, a senior guy gets less than 3K. If you're lucky to be in an international company you get 3K+

If you are a manager, you get roughly 4 to 5 K... this is much less than what you guys are making in KL.

If you were a freshie, and you joined an average company, don't be surprised to get 2K or less after probation.

RM1500K per month, would therefore be roughly 50% of an average senior executive's gross salary... So who then are those who can afford this houses?

------------------------------------------------------------------

Also take note, that I am referring to the sudden price hike. The rate which it is increasing is ungodly. 10~20K within a month? can you imagine that?

This could perhaps be a ploy by the developers to heat up the price of their props.


Added on April 19, 2011, 2:18 pmAnother thing is, you can't equate melaka outskirts with KL outskirts. Over hear our highways aren't real highways. We got traffic lights everywhere. And in some parts the road condition is not so good.

Heck I'm not sure why, but people travel very slowly... pot holes? malaccan drivers?

This post has been edited by TheDoer: Apr 19 2011, 02:18 PM
eugene jk
post Apr 19 2011, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 19 2011, 01:36 PM)
interesting analysis
base on your argument, i'm curious to know what cause the current cheap financing and what will trigger the back the expensive financing like BLR +1.x
*
It all started during US Subprime period when the country economy was low.. if you remember property market was slowdown at that time (2007, 2008 and early 2009) with fewer launching, fewer transaction, prop was cheap at that time.. Ppl were out of job, company was cutting cost, and the market fell.. that was a golden time for prop hunting (for those who have the capability).. OPR were revised and BLR follow.. At the sametime, bank loan was very competative.. started off with -1, den -1.5, den -1.8, den -2.0...... Bank interest rate was historically low, as low as 3.5% for some loan...

IMHO, the competativeness among bank triggered the discount rate on mortgage interest. When the volume is there (scale of economy), giving cheaper rate while getting bigger volume tend to be more profitable..


Added on April 19, 2011, 2:38 pm
QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 19 2011, 02:12 PM)
I think you only have half the equation. As I said, as a KL person you will be comparing it with your own salary.

In melaka, With the exception of 2 or 3 companies, a senior guy gets less than 3K. If you're lucky to be in  an international company you get 3K+

If you are a manager, you get roughly 4 to 5 K...    this is much less than what you guys are making in KL.

If you were a freshie, and you joined an average company, don't be surprised to get 2K or less after probation.

RM1500K per month, would therefore be roughly 50% of an average senior executive's gross salary...  So who then are those who can afford this houses?

------------------------------------------------------------------

Also take note, that I am referring to the sudden price hike. The rate which it is increasing is ungodly.  10~20K within a month?  can you imagine that?

This could perhaps be a ploy by the developers to heat up the price of their props.


Added on April 19, 2011, 2:18 pmAnother thing is, you can't equate melaka outskirts with KL outskirts.  Over hear our highways aren't real highways.  We got traffic lights everywhere.  And in some parts the road condition is not so good.

Heck I'm not sure why, but people travel very slowly... pot holes? malaccan drivers?
*
As I mentioned before, even before the crazy price hike recently, Melaka houses adi selling at 240k and require monthly installment of RM1500k even 5 to 6 years ago.. so the recent price hike in property had not increased monthly commitment, infact, it became cheaper.. Husband and wife join name to buy property is common.. how many ppl can buy property on their own even 5 to 6 years ago?

Increase 10 to 20k within a month is very subjective to demand and supply theory... willing buyer willing seller.. Klang Valley ones can increase in a week.. (especially new attractive launches)

1 thing proving urbanization is Klang Valley price is getting crazier than Melaka.. although Melaka housing getting more expensive, but can the rate of increase in Melaka comparable to KV? no... KV still takes number 1 spot..

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Apr 19 2011, 02:38 PM
TheDoer
post Apr 19 2011, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Apr 19 2011, 02:21 PM)
As I mentioned before, even before the crazy price hike recently, Melaka houses adi selling at 240k and require monthly installment of RM1500k even 5 to 6 years ago.. so the recent price hike in property had not increased monthly commitment, infact, it became cheaper.. Husband and wife join name to buy property is common.. how many ppl can buy property on their own even 5 to 6 years ago?

Increase 10 to 20k within a month is very subjective to demand and supply theory... willing buyer willing seller.. Klang Valley ones can increase in a week.. (especially new attractive launches)

1 thing proving urbanization is Klang Valley price is getting crazier than Melaka.. although Melaka housing getting more expensive, but can the rate of increase in Melaka comparable to KV? no... KV still takes number 1 spot..
*
I do not deny that KV price hike is worst than Malacca. Nonetheless, it is just as worrying, and an idicator of speculative price hike.

Lending rates may still be affordable now. But it seems the banks are starting to get worried too, rates are going up.

What will happen then?

---------------

The funny thing about supply and demand: Even if there were 10 items but only 1 request. If all 10 items are sold at the cost of an arm and a leg, we would still buy them.

Right now people buy because this is the price we are told it is, and we do not care much, because we have no other choice and the number of zeroes are all taken care of by the bank loan.

But there will come a time when too much is too much.
godutch
post Apr 19 2011, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 19 2011, 01:31 PM)
actually the data only reinforce my statement that the problem ain't higher property price. it's our salary!!
despite the average salary shown in the table (even i have doubt that an average auditor earns as much (say about 5 years experience?) but i could be wrong since i'm not in that line), the salary is one of the lowest among all even without conversion. as for consumables, malaysia consistently ranks at almost the top for each category. this underlies the biggest problem. low income, high cost of living.
guess something drastic needs to kick in before all hell breaks loose.
to me, the only sustainable way is high income. big question is, how do we achieve this??
*
Ya, that's what many forumers here have been talking about. The property prices are way too high for an average Malaysian to afford, so either
1) the property prices will be stagnant waiting for Malaysian's income to increase or
2) Property prices adjusted

i heard someone who works in HK as auditor (abt 8 years experience) is earning >50K HKD a month (a high school graduate working as receptionist in HK can earn >10K HKD a month) and another person who works in Singapore (manager) earnings > SGD10K a month.


Added on April 19, 2011, 2:56 pm
QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 19 2011, 02:12 PM)
I think you only have half the equation. As I said, as a KL person you will be comparing it with your own salary.

In melaka, With the exception of 2 or 3 companies, a senior guy gets less than 3K. If you're lucky to be in  an international company you get 3K+

If you are a manager, you get roughly 4 to 5 K...    this is much less than what you guys are making in KL.

If you were a freshie, and you joined an average company, don't be surprised to get 2K or less after probation.

RM1500K per month, would therefore be roughly 50% of an average senior executive's gross salary...  So who then are those who can afford this houses?

------------------------------------------------------------------

Also take note, that I am referring to the sudden price hike. The rate which it is increasing is ungodly.  10~20K within a month?  can you imagine that?

This could perhaps be a ploy by the developers to heat up the price of their props.


Added on April 19, 2011, 2:18 pmAnother thing is, you can't equate melaka outskirts with KL outskirts.  Over hear our highways aren't real highways.  We got traffic lights everywhere.  And in some parts the road condition is not so good.

Heck I'm not sure why, but people travel very slowly... pot holes? malaccan drivers?
*
agreed on the salary part. My friend who is also fm melaka was earning RM1500 a month working for a BIG company in melaka 10 years ago. her youngest brother started working 2 years ago, starting pay also the same (no inflation within the 8 years period ke ???) but they both now working in KL.

if i m not mistaken, even working for the same company but one in KL another one in melaka, pay will be different also.

This post has been edited by godutch: Apr 19 2011, 02:56 PM
SUSwankongyew
post Apr 19 2011, 03:01 PM

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Hmm, so far none of the property bulls have responded to my questions about how far they expect prices for KL residential property to go in the next few years. Come on, if you guys really do think that there is still a lot of upside here, let's see some figures. After all, if you think that buying a house for 800k now is still a good deal, you must be confident that it will reach at least 1 million plus within the next few years, right?

This is not just idle curiosity. After all, if there is still that much upside in KL property I should liquidate my other investments to go all in on property. Currently my portfolio is very balanced between property, stocks, bond and even insurance funds. I am a very conservative investor.
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 03:05 PM

I just hope I do!
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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 19 2011, 02:53 PM)
Ya, that's what many forumers here have been talking about. The property prices are way too high for an average Malaysian to afford, so either
1) the property prices will be stagnant waiting for Malaysian's income to increase or
2) Property prices adjusted

i heard someone who works in HK as auditor (abt 8 years experience) is earning >50K HKD a month (a high school graduate working as receptionist in HK can earn >10K HKD a month) and another person who works in Singapore (manager) earnings > SGD10K a month.


Added on April 19, 2011, 2:56 pm

agreed on the salary part. My friend who is also fm melaka was earning RM1500 a month working for a BIG company in melaka 10 years ago. her youngest brother started working 2 years ago, starting pay also the same (no inflation within the 8 years period ke ???) but they both now working in KL.

if i m not mistaken, even working for the same company but one in KL another one in melaka, pay will be different also.
*
last time my friend went interview with a rather large IT firm.
the firm offer him around rm2k (that was 10 years ago). told him he can opt to take this pay and start work either in kl or kuantan.
he took kuantan. his reason? higher spending power.
last i heard, he is doing very well with a MNC company and being close to the head of department of IT liao.
already bought a big terrace house with >RM100k renovations done. (this was i think about 3 years ago).
this few years? pai seh, never call him liao.
CKHong
post Apr 19 2011, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 19 2011, 02:53 PM)
Ya, that's what many forumers here have been talking about. The property prices are way too high for an average Malaysian to afford, so either
1) the property prices will be stagnant waiting for Malaysian's income to increase or
2) Property prices adjusted
agreed.. lets wait and see how bolehland changes to high income.. i don't know how they going to force foreigner to pay us more in terms of salary..
they got that power kah ? maybe increasing food, petrol, houses is one of their way to force foreigners pay us more..
if they success, then foreigner pay us more and then our salary grow
if they failed, then foreigner moves out from bolehland and invest in other cheap labour country..
by that time we have less work and then ..... stay tuned..
Nevertheless, i pray for gomen success.. as I love Malaysia..

This post has been edited by CKHong: Apr 19 2011, 03:13 PM
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 19 2011, 03:01 PM)
Hmm, so far none of the property bulls have responded to my questions about how far they expect prices for KL residential property to go in the next few years. Come on, if you guys really do think that there is still a lot of upside here, let's see some figures. After all, if you think that buying a house for 800k now is still a good deal, you must be confident that it will reach at least 1 million plus within the next few years, right?

This is not just idle curiosity. After all, if there is still that much upside in KL property I should liquidate my other investments to go all in on property. Currently my portfolio is very balanced between property, stocks, bond and even insurance funds. I am a very conservative investor.
*
somebody quoted rm5k psf in 5 years time mah.
does it makes a difference if someone gives you the figure. would you buy just for the sake of someone naming a figure here? hmm.gif
TheDoer
post Apr 19 2011, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 19 2011, 03:12 PM)
agreed.. lets wait and see how bolehland changes to high income.. i don't know how they going to force foreigner to pay us more in terms of salary..
they got that power kah ?
*
We achieve high wage status by printing another 0 at the back of our currency... a hell of a good that is rolleyes.gif
edwardsiow
post Apr 19 2011, 03:25 PM

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Don't always believe and refer to the price of recent transactions record..A lot of developers using "transaction" technique by reserved some units and sell them one by one (sell to own company) to boost up the price and confusing the buyers to believe the property at that area is worth to invest...




eugene jk
post Apr 19 2011, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(edwardsiow @ Apr 19 2011, 03:25 PM)
Don't always believe and refer to the price of recent transactions record..A lot of developers using "transaction" technique by reserved some units and sell them one by one (sell to own company) to boost up the price and confusing the buyers to believe the property at that area is worth to invest...
*
Couldnt agree more... thats one of the famous tactic nowadays... just do a booking without commitment bcos developer belum dapat AP... by the time sign SNP, all drop out 1 by 1 and agent call up 1 by 1 from the waiting list... but at the beginning, when looking at the sales chart it looks blardy good bcos after you book, not necessary have to buy.. there is where developer take advantage to increase price due to the "virtual high demand"
edwardsiow
post Apr 19 2011, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Apr 19 2011, 03:32 PM)
Couldnt agree more... thats one of the famous tactic nowadays... just do a booking without commitment bcos developer belum dapat AP... by the time sign SNP, all drop out 1 by 1 and agent call up 1 by 1 from the waiting list... but at the beginning, when looking at the sales chart it looks blardy good bcos after you book, not necessary have to buy.. there is where developer take advantage to increase price due to the "virtual high demand"
*
You will feel very unbelievable when you visit any new launching projects...they could sell 90% within two weeks...most are "virtual" buyers...Developers had created a "false" environment and "false" market...


Iceman74
post Apr 19 2011, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 19 2011, 03:20 PM)
We achieve high wage status by printing another 0 at the back of our currency...  a hell of a good that is  rolleyes.gif
*
haha....later yr teh tarik n nasi lemak also add another 0 on the bills cry.gif

maybe the only way increase purchasing power is let our ringgit rise hmm.gif
CKHong
post Apr 19 2011, 03:45 PM

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developer thought we consumer are stupid...
but then... still got alot ppl go buy one woh HAHAHAHAHAA
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Apr 19 2011, 03:44 PM)
haha....later yr teh tarik n nasi lemak also add another 0 on the bills  cry.gif

maybe the only way increase purchasing power is let our ringgit rise  hmm.gif
*
hhhmmm... would ringgit rise leads to depreaciation of property prices? hmm.gif
TheDoer
post Apr 19 2011, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Apr 19 2011, 03:32 PM)
Couldnt agree more... thats one of the famous tactic nowadays... just do a booking without commitment bcos developer belum dapat AP... by the time sign SNP, all drop out 1 by 1 and agent call up 1 by 1 from the waiting list... but at the beginning, when looking at the sales chart it looks blardy good bcos after you book, not necessary have to buy.. there is where developer take advantage to increase price due to the "virtual high demand"
*
But you will have to forfeit your booking downpayment right?
eugene jk
post Apr 19 2011, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 19 2011, 02:53 PM)
Ya, that's what many forumers here have been talking about. The property prices are way too high for an average Malaysian to afford, so either
1) the property prices will be stagnant waiting for Malaysian's income to increase or
2) Property prices adjusted
Msia prop will be "soft landing" soon.. escalation wont happen forever and I dun think price will drop also.. it will just slow down and appreciation wont be as drastic as these few years .. at this time, locals will slowly digest and consume as inflation increases ..

If you say "Prop price adjust" means "drop", I dont think it will drop overall, probably small segment but not the entire nation.. Overall, prop price wont drop as long as cheap financing still fueling the market.. Property will still appreciate in the long run..

p/s: watchout for BTS which government plan to imposed in 2015.. if this really take off, prop price will soar even higher..
CKHong
post Apr 19 2011, 03:52 PM

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got any links saying what is BTS ?
i googled.. came out terminal BTS ... etc etc

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