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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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cybermaster98
post Apr 14 2011, 08:39 AM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Apr 13 2011, 11:57 PM)
Very quotable quotes  brows.gif

Malaysia house prices to rise 10pc: SP Setia http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...l#ixzz1JQ3KiEZ3
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U still choose to believe property developers talk? Sure prices will go up over a certain percentage in future. Nobody is denying that. But why the hell are these damn developers charging much high rates psf NOW?? vmad.gif

If prices are going up by about 10% then why the hell are the current prices of new launches higher by about 20-30%???

That's the question!
kh8668
post Apr 14 2011, 08:58 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 14 2011, 08:39 AM)
U still choose to believe property developers talk? Sure prices will go up over a certain percentage in future. Nobody is denying that. But why the hell are these damn developers charging much high rates psf NOW??  vmad.gif

If prices are going up by about 10% then why the hell are the current prices of new launches higher by about 20-30%???

That's the question!
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I think Sp Setia boss is trying to say new property price will be up 10% or more on the current price. Mean we need to pay more.
CKHong
post Apr 14 2011, 09:00 AM

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"House prices will rise by a “minimum 10 per cent” this year, depending on the area"

i'm wondering.. why is it depending on area ? tongue.gif
let say same material.. same design.. one in ipoh and one in kl/pj
why is it only the price in kl/pj rise by 10 per cent ?

i dun think the construction cost cost 10% of the props lur.. just that developer duwan the market to crash then oni say that.. haih.. dam u developer !
kh8668
post Apr 14 2011, 09:06 AM

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Maybe we need QS to tell us the truth on the building costs. Land cost is higher now we pretty sure.
prody
post Apr 14 2011, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ Apr 13 2011, 09:09 PM)
banks calculate base on 2/3 of a person income. If the total debt repayment is not more than 2/3 of a person income, the mortgage seller can get the loan approve. some more nowadays can pay until 60 - 65 years old. The monetary system is still very loose. Even if it is loose, M'sians are generally very prudent.

So we are still far away from property bubbles like in the US.
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Hmmm, this was 1/3 previously.
woengx2
post Apr 14 2011, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 14 2011, 09:06 AM)
Maybe we need QS to tell us the truth on the building costs. Land cost is higher now we pretty sure.
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Want more precisely we need to check the financial report of the developer's company then we shall know the actual cost of it, provided the financial report is not fake ! tongue.gif
prody
post Apr 14 2011, 09:47 AM

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Not so sure on all material costs, but most would have peaked somewhere in 2008.
Bobby C
post Apr 14 2011, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 13 2011, 07:58 PM)
no ler... said bought subsale at 60k. not 30k.
my math ok wan... tongue.gif
the point is... residential houses is not that great as investment except for certain periods.
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If u add rental return, tat will be significant.

Tat's why many of us go for rental return. Freehold, leasehold, old, new, landed, strata etc does not really matters so long as location/maintenance/security is good. laugh.gif
macyhouse
post Apr 14 2011, 02:03 PM

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QUOTE
Moody's Investors Service  has revised downwards its outlook for the China property sector to negative from stable.

"China's property developers face a tough operating environment, driven by tightening regulatory measures, rising interest rates, reduced bank lending, and increasing supply,” said Peter Choy, a senior vice president at Moody's office in Hong Kong.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business/18...rom-stable.html
godutch
post Apr 14 2011, 05:26 PM

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http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-feeds-off.html

Housing Denial in Australia Feeds Off Same Myths We Heard in the US

It is amusing to watch Australian analyst after analyst cite the same silly myths regarding housing that we saw in the united states. First consider a sampling of the nonsense we heard in the US.



•There is no national housing bubble
•There is a housing shortage in Florida, San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc.
•There is never a better time to buy than now
•Home price cannot possibly drop where Boomers are moving

•Seattle housing will not drop because the local economy is strong

=========


i think many people would say that Malaysia is different too biggrin.gif
kochin
post Apr 14 2011, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 14 2011, 09:00 AM)
"House prices will rise by a “minimum 10 per cent” this year, depending on the area"

i'm wondering.. why is it depending on area ? tongue.gif
let say same material.. same design.. one in ipoh and one in kl/pj
why is it only the price in kl/pj rise by 10 per cent ?

i dun think the construction cost cost 10% of the props lur.. just that developer duwan the market to crash then oni say that..  haih.. dam u developer !
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if construction cost do not constitute even 10% of the selling price, then i don't know what does! rclxub.gif
construction cost would definitely form a big chunk out of the cost my friend.
land is another chunk out of it.
the others are all % of either selling cost or costruction cost.
eg. marketing cost is % of selling cost, consultant's fees are % of construction cost, contribution to utilities companies such as tenaga, syabas, iwk is based on % of selling price, and the list goes on.
and believe it or not, all the other % factors are increasing like hell.
previously, stamp duty is only rm10 per stamping irregardless of contract. now the government is demanding a % of it! imagine a rm200million contract. last time pay rm10 stamping duty now have to fork out millions of ringgit!
believe it or not, construction cost or rather development cost is ever increasing. but question is by how much.
the ultimate truth, IMHO, is that it's okay to increase property prices (since we are comparatively cheaper by world economy standards). the biggest problem lies in our income/salary.
we are no way near our neighbours or world economy outlook by comparison.
those who wish property prices drop should definitely hope for salary increase instead.
if we continue to depress our prices, we will never ever develop as a higher income nation. we will lose more and more purchasing power. in future, we can't even afford to go for holiday in indonesia or thailand anymore as we would then become the cheaper destination for holidays.
guys, is that what we want? or do we want to go england for holidays in say 10 years time?
CKHong
post Apr 15 2011, 09:43 AM

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developer trying to push up the sales only luh i think..
previously already kept on saying construction cost is higher cus material is high.. so property price will be high
by that time i notice.. non prime area, the price didnt even skyrocketing till that high this 2 years..
i know land cost quite alot between prime and non prime area..
but then how come non prime area doesn't go up that high where prime area does ?
by that time they already using this point " material is higher "
i heard this soooo many times already..

QUOTE
(since we are comparatively cheaper by world economy standards)
but our income stagnant .. ahh.. i tot this point we already discuss n times... i'm ok with property price increase
but not till this level luh..
duno which post i stated as well.. if our gomen can magically increase the based salary of the citizen of bolehland.. then i'm ok with the props skyrocketing..
at least we still can afford mah..
now diff case.. salary stagnant.. while props price is like shakehead.gif
in order to own a house.. we have to eat maggi, walk to work etc etc
life will be miserable just to own a house.. in malaysia..
we just aim the props to be corrected 15~20% ..
i dun think we can hope much for the increment of salary.. with all the things happen in the world..
japan tsunami + nuclear
libya
US still struggling from their banking stuff.. till now their US dollar value is still low
china props .. duno where already.. macam ghost town
etc etc
the world is like that already.. do u think investor in other country will pump more $$ for their employee in msia ? we're cheap labour and yet they don't give much increment. we cant really in par with the props price now..

This post has been edited by CKHong: Apr 15 2011, 09:57 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 15 2011, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 15 2011, 09:43 AM)
china props .. duno where already.. macam ghost town
Have you been in China?

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Apr 15 2011, 10:42 AM
CKHong
post Apr 15 2011, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 15 2011, 10:19 AM)
How you been in China?
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do u mean have u been in china ?
aha.. i just read from somewhere
got video one.. but maybe its untrue.. sorry take that point out the tongue.gif
pls dun expect that i went to go US there see how's they do in the banking stuff.. go libya see how's the situation there etc
all my point i read it from news or article.. maybe i shouldn't trust those fully..

This post has been edited by CKHong: Apr 15 2011, 10:32 AM
tigana
post Apr 15 2011, 07:54 PM

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If you look at the SP Setia financial report Q4 2010. They report revenue of RM558M versus gross profit (after minus construction cost etc) as RM159M. This translates to gross profit % of 28.5%. 1 year ago it was 20.1%. The 28.5% margin is after land cost, construction cost, materials, etc. So looks like the gross margin is improving. If there is a demand, they will increase the price.
kh8668
post Apr 15 2011, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Apr 15 2011, 07:54 PM)
If you look at the SP Setia financial report Q4 2010. They report revenue of RM558M versus gross profit (after minus construction cost etc) as RM159M. This translates to gross profit % of 28.5%. 1 year ago it was 20.1%. The 28.5% margin is after land cost, construction cost, materials, etc. So looks like the gross margin is improving. If there is a demand, they will increase the price.
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.....SP Setia purchased its land bank long time ago e.g. Setia Alam land at RM3.50psf. Considered this price at the current market, it is cheap. and recent property market rally, for sure profits margin shows improvement.

This is so called the risks and holding costs to the developers, and their risks are being paid now.

Common sense, Although developers purchased a piece of land at a cheaper price tag long time ago, do you think they will build cheapo houses and sell to you at the current market? (assumed that the location is good and easily accessible)

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This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 15 2011, 10:10 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 15 2011, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 15 2011, 09:17 PM)
.....SP Setia purchased its land bank long time ago e.g. Setia Alam land at RM3.50psf. Considered this price at the current market, it is cheap. and recent property market rally, for sure profits margin shows improvement.

This is so called the risks and holding costs to the developers, and their risks are being paid now.

Common sense, Although developers purchased a piece of land at a cheaper price tag long time ago, do you think they will build cheapo houses and sell to you at the current market? (assumed that the location is good and easily accessible)

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Thanks for the info!
tigana
post Apr 15 2011, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 15 2011, 09:17 PM)
.....SP Setia purchased its land bank long time ago e.g. Setia Alam land at RM3.50psf. Considered this price at the current market, it is cheap. and recent property market rally, for sure profits margin shows improvement.

This is so called the risks and holding costs to the developers, and their risks are being paid now.

Common sense, Although developers purchased a piece of land at a cheaper price tag long time ago, do you think they will build cheapo houses and sell to you at the current market? (assumed that the location is good and easily accessible)

user posted image

user posted image

user posted image
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I understand. I was trying to simplify the calculations of how much profit developers make.
The cost of sales would reflect current land price?

Anyway the tables that you have is interesting as it shows where the future hot spots are.
kh8668
post Apr 15 2011, 11:48 PM

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No worries...

Kajang/Semenyih/Sg Long will be the next
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 15 2011, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 15 2011, 11:48 PM)
No worries...

Kajang/Semenyih/Sg Long will be the next
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any reason?

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