So all in or all cash?

And is Huawei still banned?

Easier for dt to disrupt the market than smooth accession.

as dt global trade war has slowed down or differed many investment, bubble has deflated somewhat. however, how much the balloon is deflated is another matter.

huawei is only a pawn in u.s trade war with china.

I am currently HOLD. About 40% in Equities. Not buying more n not selling either. Wait and see.

Mind sharing what you're holding? I'm sitting at 20% Equities 80% Cash

Current holding Equities
Maybank (1155)
Bursa (1818)
China-ETF MYR (0829EA)

* counters might change anytime. I tend to take profit (usually too early) but will replace with some other stock. However, overall comfortable with 40% equity exposure atm.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 8 2019, 02:32 AM

Hehe,... I am strategizing now to go into share margin financing - wanting to play a 'higher game' now.

Leverage amplify profits as well as losses.

Don't play play if you don't have liquid assets to cover

Just curious ...

If the global banking health was at -8 (-10 to +10) in 2008, where is it now?

Holding 90% cash now.

It's a matter of opinion. Different people got different opinion.

I think after the 2008 financial crisis, governments and reserve banks are more experienced and have precedents to refer to. They also learnt what effective policies that can be deployed to tackle in advance problems that may likely to develop. So, it is less likely financial crisis the magnitude of the GFC happens again in such short time. Maybe 30 years later as human beings are forgetful and always greedy. But that would be caused by another new factor

Same like the Great market crash 1929 (where information flowed too slow) and Black Monday 1987 (where (mis)information flowed too quickly), the same cause is not likely to happened again as stock exchanges around the world have put in place more efficient flow of information. If crash happens again, it would be another factor.

Financial crisis / stock market correction used to be said happens every 10 years once. Happened in 1987 (October, close to 1988), 1998, 2008. Didn't happen in 2018 and it is now second half of 2019 already. Maybe because human beings has the ability to learn from past mistakes and therefore we are the only species with civilisation

I would say global banking health is at +5 now

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Jul 10 2019, 09:56 AM

Thanks.

My gut feel is -1 for the global banks, in general.

Thank you for your insights.

The above quoted took into consideration the current crisis that Deutsche Bank is facing ?

Do you think this crisis could be one of the catalysts to recession similar to what happened to Lehman Bro in 2008 ?

Next economic crisis unlikely to be banks. Banks already learnt their lesson.
Last time anyone can simply get a loan. Now there is stringent background checks and improved accounting standards to provide better financial reporting.

I am not too convinced yet about the bolded above. Goldman S learned the lesson with its involvement in the 1MDB post 2008?

Nonetheless just to clarify in this context I am just point the coincidental parallel between Lehman Bro and Deutsche Bank and the catalysts to recession could be multifaceted.

This post has been edited by markedestiny: Jul 10 2019, 02:34 PM

I'm referring to consumers you and me. Fraud can happen anytime.

Compared to pre Global Financial Crisis, banks are much stronger. Read up on Basel I, Ii and III.

They are keeping higher capital, higher liquidity n better risk management. That's why Banks in general nowadays have lower profit growth. They are required to keep more cash/liquid instruments rather than deploying them more profitably. This has impacted their share price performance. Not just in Malaysia but almost everywhere.

No insight at all, just my personal opinion

Based on my limited reading, Deutsche bank’s problem is internal business decisions and directions (high risk appetite) the management took, which landed them in such predicament now. It does not happen overnight, but years of business strategy which turned bad. I would equate it to the likes of Nokia and Kodak, the downfall which was a result of series of bad management decisions.

The health of banking system depends more on the structural integrity of the whole industry, which is the collective responsibilities of the different governments.

The collapse of Lehman Bros (and a few others) was mainly due to sub-prime loans, which at that time was not regulated by US banking regulators. The whole financial industry were involved, even affected outside of USA as the banks packaged it and re-sold the sub-prime loans overseas.

So I think Duetsche Bank’s case, which is a result of bad internal management decisions, could not be compared to Lehman Bros. collapse

Goldman Sachs’s sold the 1MDB loan guaranteed by a sovereign government (almost risk free) at 6% to investor. In the process they pocketed 10% of fees $600m !

If sub-prime loans is used to compare to 1MDB loan, 1MDB loan deal is the best deal ever packaged by a bank for lender. Comparing hell vs heaven

Too bad malaysia is on the wrong end

Yeah, I agree. Lehman Bros collapse and Duetsche Bank are quite different in nature. True, the German bank does have its fair share of fraud cases, but it did not suffer from the systemic failure that smashed Lehman, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch.

As you have pointed out, the narrow POV from some is causing them to mistake 1 bank's performance with the entire financial system collapse (in 2008).