If u count?

i used Enron to indicate a GIANT company. Yes, it is not a bank.

I think 40% approximately. . Need to check again, outstation now . What about you ?

40% Equities (Asean n China)
15% Bonds (MYR)
10% Gold
25% Cash (MYR)
10% Cash (USD)

Approximate.. Give or take 1-2%.

Investment outlook: A big horrible crash is coming but there is a now a good possibility of a nice big rally esp. for Emerging Markets, just before that.

27k whooppsss.

That one is sectoral crash, not as widespread as whole market crash. If sectoral crash is included, then we don’t have “trend” already. The 1987, 1998, 2008 are major and “memorable” crashes

Since you sold your holdings in Oct 2018, how much opportunity cost (ie. gain you would have made) if you didn’t sell and hold it until now ?

Inb4, people think they can time the market after looking back (post hoc rationalisation).

Just few months back people screaming recession but look at the S&P500 now. Already breach 3,000.

The whole Malaysian market crashed from 2q2014-2015. Not just OnG counters.

It didn't look so bad from a Ringgit perspective coz Ringgit crashed too.. But if u look at our market from a USD perspective, it was quite horrible.

Look at the price chart of EWM etf in that period for proof.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 12 2019, 01:40 AM

Putting forex into equation will complicate matters. I would look at a stock market from the home currency perspective.

KLCI dropped from 1800+ to below 1600 in 2015. That’s just around -15%. It doesn’t look like a crash to me. Easy to recover. If a dividend chaser, a 6% stock can recoup in 3 years even if the market never recovers.

On the other hand, DJIA in 2008 dropped from high of 14000 to 6500, around 50%. That is a number that will make jaws drop. I am sure these type of numbers will interest people who time the market

If 1800+ to 1600 is a crash, then KLCI also experience crash last year when we changed the government. +-10% fluctuation is a lot more common. I am sure many market are having +10% just 2019 alone

Knew someone will be asking me that again. Ha.

Like I said before, it depends on the day I compare with, the price and currency are going up and down every week. So cannot say with one answer that I have gained or lost.

I sold mine in Dec, not in Oct. Started this thread in Oct seeking views on the things I might have left out in my analysis.

Will do a numeric comparison on the anniversary of my "dump day" later this year.

Will also do a comparison days after the crash and also 2-3 years later on its recovery. To see how far off I am on my assumptions. No one can make perfect predictions. That is not what I am after. I assumed 50% drop in price in the crash and take 5 years for the price to recover. Even if the drop is only 40%, takes 3 years to recover, I will still be laughing though the overall gain vs doing nothing is smaller.

Look ahead and take action where necessary on big items is my advice.

Maybe best to use the rule of thumb -20% as a crash.

1800 to 1600 => 11%

1800 to 1440 => 20%

Even this is not a definitive rule, just use it as a guide for self-evaluation.

'no one can make perfect predictions' hence, more money is lost while waiting for recessions.

This is why people DCA.

So far your prediction wrong cause you kinda sold at the bottom so far.

Lets see how it goes, you will be right eventually , don't know how long it will take only

Singapore just reported worse than expected GDP but the market seems to be not affected, still nicely in the green.

Waiting for you to do the calculation to prove me wrong. But definitely I know if I sold in Dec I would be poorer than I am now . Just looking at one of my counters I am holding , Frontken , Dec was 0.80 cents? Today it is at 1.54. hibiscus . MRCB 0.60 cents today at 0.95. Amazon at 1500, today at 2000 . SPY was around 250 , today it is at 300 (almost a 20% gain YTD) even if the sp500 drop 20% today , we wouldn't be still be far off from a net gain .

Which Peter ? Cant be Peter Lynch as he is the one who coined Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves

Market corrections often cause
investors to abandon their investment
plan, moving out of stocks with the
intention of moving back in when things
seem better—often to disastrous results.

The chart below compares the 20 year
returns of equity investors (S&P 500®
Index) who remained invested over the
entire period to those who missed just
the best 10, 30, 60, or 90 trading days:

• The patient investor who remained
invested during the entire 20 year
period received the highest average
annualized return of 9.2% per year.

• The investor who missed the best 30
trading days over this 20 year period
experienced an investment that
remained flat.

• Amazingly, an investor needed only
to miss the best 60 days for his return
to plummet.

Investors who understand that timing
the market is a loser’s game will be less
prone to reacting to short-term extremes
in the market and more likely to adhere
to their long-term investment plan.

Ha.

Attached is Wisdom of Great Investors By Davis Advisors




Attached File(s)
 WGI.pdf ( 1.55mb ) Number of downloads: 6

Actually your willingness to share what your strategy and belief is commendable Give the readers here a real life example.

Not like Ramjade I have to keep track of his strategy for him, and he keeps on shifting goal post

Looking forward for your anniversary review of your strategy. Hope you will show your numbers in December so readers have a better grasp of gain/loss

[quote=Krv23490,Jul 12 2019, 11:04 AM]
Waiting for you to do the calculation to prove me wrong. But definitely I know if I sold in Dec I would be poorer than I am now . Just looking at one of my counters I am holding , Frontken , Dec was 0.80 cents? Today it is at 1.54. hibiscus . MRCB 0.60 cents today at 0.95. Amazon at 1500, today at 2000 . SPY was around 250 , today it is at 300 (almost a 20% gain YTD) even if the sp500 drop 20% today , we wouldn't be still be far off from a net gain .

*** Mine is overseas shares. Currency fluctuation -ve & +ve kick in as well.
*** I did a very quick comparison since you are so eager to know, I am about -2% vs if I did nothing. Like I said earlier, if I did another comparison when the price is lower or the currency is in my favour, then I will be, maybe +2%.


Which Peter ? Cant be Peter Lynch as he is the one who coined Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves

*** I referred to Peter on DCA, not on market timing. Some gurus are anti market timing, due to the fees they incur on shares transactions which take an accumulated big toll on their overall profit.

Forex is not complicated to calculate at all.

When it comes to my financial well being and security I will take forex into account. I just don't wory abt short term fluctuations.

This is because debasement of currency is a real risk to financial long term health. U can take Venuzela as one example..Venuzelans who didnt take Forex into account (vast majority of them) are dirt poor now. Extreme case yah.. Malaysia not close to tht by large margin.. but well.. In the 90s it was USD1: 2.5 thereabouts. Now is 1USD:4+. Long term decline... In USD terms our market is actually cheaper now than it was in the peak of 90s.

When it comes to the big global crisis, usually people will run to the dollar n emerging currencies will fall. But dollar itself will also be de-based because Fed will lower interest rate to zero or negative. To protect against debasement of RM and fiat currencies in general, I make sure I hv USD n gold as insurance. However, in the short term, RM has been gaining vs the USD.

But my nightmare scenario is 2021-2022, global recession. 2023, Umno-PAS coalition wins GE...

[quote=plumberly,Jul 12 2019, 11:56 AM]
[quote=Krv23490,Jul 12 2019, 11:04 AM]
Waiting for you to do the calculation to prove me wrong. But definitely I know if I sold in Dec I would be poorer than I am now . Just looking at one of my counters I am holding , Frontken , Dec was 0.80 cents? Today it is at 1.54. hibiscus . MRCB 0.60 cents today at 0.95. Amazon at 1500, today at 2000 . SPY was around 250 , today it is at 300 (almost a 20% gain YTD) even if the sp500 drop 20% today , we wouldn't be still be far off from a net gain .

*** Mine is overseas shares. Currency fluctuation -ve & +ve kick in as well.
*** I did a very quick comparison since you are so eager to know, I am about -2% vs if I did nothing. Like I said earlier, if I did another comparison when the price is lower or the currency is in my favour, then I will be, maybe +2%.
Which Peter ? Cant be Peter Lynch as he is the one who coined Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves

*** I referred to Peter on DCA, not on market timing. Some gurus are anti market timing, due to the fees they incur on shares transactions which take an accumulated big toll on their overall profit.

[/quote]

Yes, majority of my holdings are overseas as well. SP500 is the best indicator in my opinion . Even with currency fluctuation . Even Singapore REITs up by 18% this year itself(I certainly didn’t expect that)

Well, even with said fees, I profited a lot more from the run up the past few months. You listen to your gurus but are selective based on your own preference. I stuck to what works by not timing the market and DCA and so far have been rewarded. Ha

Very well done! May blue sky keeps rolling in !