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 FundSuperMart v18 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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Ramjade
post May 31 2017, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ May 31 2017, 09:33 PM)
Keep abit lo since not much also... lol
Election near? I doubt. At least half a year to go.
But I see lot people in my kampong start wayang ad lol
*
Some say in Sept after SEA game. Latest August next year.

QUOTE(T231H @ May 31 2017, 09:34 PM)
you are not alone,...many people used to think of "higher the risk higher the returns".......
I think it because of ...sort of cumulative compounding effects of positive accumulation thru out the years....
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I think because 2008 wipe off huge chunk. 1998-2008 whistling.gif

QUOTE(Nemozai @ May 31 2017, 09:29 PM)
Make me wonder why I have been building a so called aggressive portfolio with 80% EQ and 20% bond all these while.  hmm.gif
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2008. 2008 wipe out a big chunk from the market.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Jun 1 2017, 12:56 AM
T231H
post May 31 2017, 09:54 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ May 31 2017, 09:37 PM)

I think because 2008 wipe off huge chunk. 1998-2008 whistling.gif
*
see yklooi's signature?

"--------------------
“What we do know about crises [is] that they occur with great frequency. What we don’t know is when they will happen, what will be the cause, how long the bear market will last and how deep it will be?” ---- investment writer Larry Swedroe.
We know crises will happen but we don’t know when. In order to account for that, we have to invest for the long-term knowing a crash is bound to happen someday.
In other words, your investment plan must incorporate the virtual certainty that you are going to have live through many crises, perhaps about one every other year or so
, and live through them with equanimity, without panicking and selling.”

thus always go modestly......devil.gif
prince_mk
post May 31 2017, 10:07 PM

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Manulife US sharp fall due to dividend declared ?
xuzen
post May 31 2017, 10:11 PM

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» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

You have broken one of the cardinal rule of investment: DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH YOUR ASSET!
India only appears in those port that have high volatility. Whereas China specific fund does no appear at all in all the twelve simulated port I did. You old man liao... can you handle hot and spicy India boh?

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


For India, see above reply to yklooi.

KGF has excellent low correlation coefficient to all the other nine UTF in my bucket list. That is why it is included in all twelve of the simulated port even though its risk to reward isn't fantastic, it is just that it provides excellent diversification.

Take note I purposely did not include Ponzi One and Kapchai fund because both of them are closed. I also purposely did not include Ponzi Two because somehow morningstar do not have corr-coeff value foe Ponzi Two MYR UTF. Becuase of the absence of data, Ponzi Two by default is not included into Algozen™ ver. 4 simulation.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Me not conservative.... me am moderate risk. I choose the middle path......

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 31 2017, 10:13 PM
T231H
post May 31 2017, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk @ May 31 2017, 10:07 PM)
Manulife US sharp fall due to dividend declared ?
*
see inside here got info about it?
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/fundi...nouncement.svdo

besiegetank
post May 31 2017, 10:36 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ May 31 2017, 03:29 PM)
Algozen™ version four speaketh; listen well...(The values are now in MYR correlation).

I tried putting in various UTF(s) into Algozen™ and letting her run the numbers. Maximum per simulation run is ten UTFs. Anything more, is limited by the correlation coefficient parameters. 

The criteria for selecting UTFs for simulations are:

1) Good risk to reward ratio among peers.
2) They must have poor correlation among each other (meaning must be well diversified)

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Next step, after running twelve simulated portfolios, ranging from port that generate 8% to 20% p.a. , out of 12 ports,

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


To be continued...

The ports that I have run simulation gave the highest possible return to be 21% (100% TA-GTF) and the lowest possible return is 7% (100% Esther Bond). Hence the whole spectrum of return is from 7 to 21%. As expected the higher the return the higher the risk aka std - deviation. After running 12 times with various composition of portfolios, I find that the most risk optimal point is around the 10, 11, 12 and 13% point.

Let's take 13% as the expected return. In order to get 13% the composition of UTFs are as below.

KGF @ 15%
REITs @ 10%
TA-GTF @ 25%
Esther Bond @ 30%
RHB EMB @ 20%.

Std - deviation of this portfolio is 4.41% and the risk to reward ratio is 13/4.41 = 2.95.

Xuzen
*
Wow, you deserve to be paid for this info rclxms.gif Thanks for the hardwork! With Xuzen around, who needs FSM portfolio management tongue.gif
shankar_dass93
post May 31 2017, 11:01 PM

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Would be rebalancing/modifying my aunt's and my portfolio and hoping that my new portfolio delivers exceptional returns for the balance 2nd half of 2017 sweat.gif


If not, i would start ranting that FSM cheated me bangwall.gif bangwall.gif mad.gif Joking.


But yeah, hoping my new portfolio would deliver returns!




SUSyklooi
post May 31 2017, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ May 31 2017, 04:45 PM)
*
hmm.gif I kind of lost the link to the iportfolio/snapshot.

do you happens to have it and can you please throw in zuxen's new port into it and see how it goes?

while waiting for Dasecret,...can someone iportfolio it?

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 31 2017, 11:09 PM
SUSyklooi
post May 31 2017, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ May 31 2017, 11:01 PM)
Would be rebalancing/modifying my aunt's and my portfolio and hoping that my new portfolio delivers exceptional returns for the balance 2nd half of 2017 sweat.gif
If not, i would start ranting that FSM cheated me bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif  mad.gif  Joking.
But yeah, hoping my new portfolio would deliver returns!
*
will you be shifting to zuxen's version 4 port recommendation?
if not, what are your current portfolio and allocation like?
shankar_dass93
post May 31 2017, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ May 31 2017, 11:08 PM)
will you be shifting to zuxen's version 4 port recommendation?
if not, what are your current portfolio and allocation like?
*
I just started selling off/reducing a few funds and haven't completed buying what i wanted. Would get my new portfolio up by next Friday and then i shall post my before and after portfolio.


Would take Xuzen's recommendation into consideration.

Btw, I'm getting into KGF, was just wondering that if I'm just only able to invest in one; either KGF or KGF PRS (Just to get the 1k incentive, but the downside is that i can't take my cash out till i reach 55), which would be a better choice ?

I do understand that KGF's PRS is a combination of KGF 60%+ and Kenanga's Bond Fund 30%.
SUSyklooi
post May 31 2017, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ May 31 2017, 11:26 PM)
I just started selling off/reducing a few funds and haven't completed buying what i wanted. Would get my new portfolio up by next Friday and then i shall post my before and after portfolio.
Would take Xuzen's recommendation into consideration.

Btw, I'm getting into KGF, was just wondering that if I'm just only able to invest in one; either KGF or KGF PRS (Just to get the 1k incentive, but the downside is that i can't take my cash out till i reach 55), which would be a better choice ?

I do understand that KGF's PRS is a combination of KGF 60%+ and Kenanga's Bond Fund 30%.
*
if you are having consideration of zuxen's recommendation.......then try Amreit PRS for ease of calculation for KGF PRS has bond element in its thus the % might differ in calculation

btw, if you are not in a hurry to buy...wait for a few weeks (most probably end june ~ end July) there should be another round of FSM promo like usual......

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 31 2017, 11:41 PM
MUM
post May 31 2017, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(besiegetank @ May 31 2017, 10:36 PM)
Wow, you deserve to be paid for this info  rclxms.gif  Thanks for the hardwork! With Xuzen around, who needs FSM portfolio management  tongue.gif
*
hmm.gif those that are still hesitate, pondering, unable to let go, undecided, too attached, etc, etc......
Ramjade
post Jun 1 2017, 12:52 AM

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QUOTE(T231H @ May 31 2017, 09:54 PM)
see yklooi's signature?

"--------------------
“What we do know about crises [is] that they occur with great frequency. What we don’t know is when they will happen, what will be the cause, how long the bear market will last and how deep it will be?” ---- investment writer Larry Swedroe.
We know crises will happen but we don’t know when. In order to account for that, we have to invest for the long-term knowing a crash is bound to happen someday.
In other words, your investment plan must incorporate the virtual certainty that you are going to have live through many crises, perhaps about one every other year or so
, and live through them with equanimity, without panicking and selling.”

thus always go modestly......devil.gif
*
I know some people withdraw everything now and keep cash only devil.gif Even Warren Buffet is doing the same. "We know crises will happen but we don’t know when. In order to account for that, we have to be prepare for mega discount." devil.gif You want to sit on the sidelines or you want the opportunity of once in a lifetime? rclxs0.gif Of cause must have titanium balls for that brows.gif

Imagine netting Midvalley/Maybank/Nestle at 10%p.a dividend. drool.gif

QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ May 31 2017, 11:26 PM)
I just started selling off/reducing a few funds and haven't completed buying what i wanted. Would get my new portfolio up by next Friday and then i shall post my before and after portfolio.
Would take Xuzen's recommendation into consideration.

Btw, I'm getting into KGF, was just wondering that if I'm just only able to invest in one; either KGF or KGF PRS (Just to get the 1k incentive, but the downside is that i can't take my cash out till i reach 55), which would be a better choice ?

I do understand that KGF's PRS is a combination of KGF 60%+ and Kenanga's Bond Fund 30%.
*
Pick either Cimb Asia Pacific or KGF. Malaysia stock market die, KGF also die. Malaysia stock market die, Cimb asia pacific won't die. devil.gif I pick Cimb. No more amasia reits for me.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Jun 1 2017, 12:55 AM
T231H
post Jun 1 2017, 07:43 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jun 1 2017, 12:52 AM)
I know some people withdraw everything now and keep cash only  devil.gif Even Warren Buffet is doing the same. "We know crises will happen but we don’t know when. In order to account for that, we have to be prepare for mega discount." devil.gif You want to sit on the sidelines or you want the opportunity of once in a lifetime?  rclxs0.gif Of cause must have titanium balls for that  brows.gif

Imagine netting Midvalley/Maybank/Nestle at 10%p.a dividend.  drool.gif
*
The Perils of Forecasting and the Need for a Disciplined Investment Process [31 May]
May 31, 2017
Author : AMP Capital Investors Limited

https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...ss-31-May--8422
dasecret
post Jun 1 2017, 08:51 AM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ May 31 2017, 11:01 PM)
Would be rebalancing/modifying my aunt's and my portfolio and hoping that my new portfolio delivers exceptional returns for the balance 2nd half of 2017 sweat.gif
If not, i would start ranting that FSM cheated me bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif  mad.gif  Joking.
But yeah, hoping my new portfolio would deliver returns!
*
What did u buy exactly? If you read what the fund managers write recently, most of them would conclude Q1 was really good and they don't expect the rest of the year would deliver anything close to that

You need to consider if your fund choices and allocation matches your risk appetite. It sounded to me that you have rather unrealistic expectations. UT is not ponzi scheme, it would not deliver consistent superior returns; it's designed to deliver reasonable returns over mid-long term with minimal effort required from the investor

QUOTE(yklooi @ May 31 2017, 11:06 PM)
hmm.gif I kind of lost the link to the iportfolio/snapshot.

do you happens to have it and can you please throw in zuxen's new port into it and see how it goes?

while waiting for Dasecret,...can someone iportfolio it?
*
I think that iportfolio site died....
Use FSM's portfolio simulation function lor; but xuzen already indicated past returns and weighted volatility

Ramjade
post Jun 1 2017, 08:54 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Jun 1 2017, 08:51 AM)
What did u buy exactly? If you read what the fund managers write recently, most of them would conclude Q1 was really good and they don't expect the rest of the year would deliver anything close to that

You need to consider if your fund choices and allocation matches your risk appetite. It sounded to me that you have rather unrealistic expectations. UT is not ponzi scheme, it would not deliver consistent superior returns; it's designed to deliver reasonable returns over mid-long term with minimal effort required from the investor
*
Menteri cakap anything more than 6-7%p.a. is unrealistic (replying to reporters on how avoid scam) and here we are all aiming for >10% whistling.gif innocent.gif

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Jun 1 2017, 08:55 AM
SUSyklooi
post Jun 1 2017, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Jun 1 2017, 08:51 AM)
.........
I think that iportfolio site died....
Use FSM's portfolio simulation function lor; but xuzen already indicated past returns and weighted volatility
*
😥😥 too bad..
i remembered in iportfolio, there was a data table showing the port has how many number of positive months in a 12 months period....was trying to see how zuxen 's port faired
dasecret
post Jun 1 2017, 09:12 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jun 1 2017, 08:54 AM)
Menteri cakap anything more than 6-7%p.a. is unrealistic (replying to reporters on how avoid scam) and here we are all aiming for >10%  whistling.gif  innocent.gif
*
I think menteri trying to manage ASB depositors' expectations

Pls report back if you meet your 10% annualised returns over 3 years or more....
I'm not so greedy geh, can annualised 8% over 5 years or more I very happy liao; after all I don't have crystal ball
dasecret
post Jun 1 2017, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Jun 1 2017, 09:11 AM)
😥😥 too bad..
i remembered in iportfolio, there was a data table showing the port has how many number of positive months in a 12 months period....was trying to see how zuxen 's port faired
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Yeah, quite sad that the site died

Anyway, all these is rear view mirror analysis; while it's good to know, it really doesn't promise future returns
SUSyklooi
post Jun 1 2017, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Jun 1 2017, 09:13 AM)
Yeah, quite sad that the site died

Anyway, all these is rear view mirror analysis; while it's good to know, it really doesn't promise future returns
*
Yes..that is true.....but with 30% in esther n 10% in selina plus another 20% in EM bond.....i think not much chances for the capital to be "lost" in the longer term....
Alot of defenders plus few well known strikers

Thinking of tweeking some to add on to that port......and start to accumulate TA GTF.....on next promo then slowly get changes done in preparation for 2018 portfolio composition

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jun 1 2017, 09:55 AM

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