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 FundSuperMart v18 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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Steven7
post May 29 2017, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ May 29 2017, 10:24 AM)
Nah. If I were to choose automatic portfolio manager, I will rather choose those real robo investor instead of this pseudo robo investor (FSM managed portfolio is still operated by humans). After all if a robot can beat human at Go (ancient chinese stategy game), what chances does human have against robo investor? Even Blackrock, one of US largest fund house fired most of their fund manager and go the robo way.
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Well don't get too carried away with all these AI hype, speaking from a tenured Software Engineer who has worked with multiple AI and machine learning problem. Here is a good read for you https://backchannel.com/the-myth-of-a-super...ai-59282b686c62 I still prefer a little human touch when it comes to investing and I definitely don't trust the newcomers (Smartly, StashAway) AI yet as they are nowhere close to AlphaGo, the main reason being Google is way too ahead in this AI realm

Steven7
post May 29 2017, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ May 29 2017, 10:32 AM)
Wow, for real? This product will die such a tragic death if they are indirectly limiting each investor to buy RM10k; this story reminds me so much of PRS
Well, the biggest hurdle/limitation is, I don't think there would be a real robo advisory distributing ETFs in Msia in the near term. And FSM MY if I remember correctly, only has license to distribute UTs and not securities (means no ETFs). MAPS in FSM SG does include ETF as part of their portfolio

I think your expectations on the robo advisory is a bit unrealistic. In the end, who do you think develop and determine the algorithm used by the machines for robo advisors? At least for now it'll still be humans, but yeah, next time maybe when the machines self learning technology improve further, maybe they don't need human intervention anymore. But really, can machines anticipate Fed's next move? or Trump's? or North korea's?  rclxs0.gif
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To build on your reply, yes most AI is still built by humans with some exceptions, for instance, Google's AI is building a better AI compared to its engineers but I agree with you that we can't rely on full robo-advisory yet for now (on my previous reply). Speaking of which, predictive analytics is always an interesting problem in AI (in fact I am working something like that right now but on a different context).

Quick unrelated fun read: There is an open-source project that does the following, monitor Trump's feed, process each tweet by extracting the company name mentioned & perform sentiment analysis on the text, if its good sentiment buy the stock of the company thru TradeKing API immediately and vice versa. The simulated portfolios earns a shit ton of money.

This post has been edited by Steven7: May 29 2017, 11:27 AM
SUSyklooi
post May 29 2017, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ May 29 2017, 11:05 AM)
Question is that the results of the portfolios performance it is inclusive of the fees or not inclusive ?

Most likely I would say it will not be inclusive of the fees. So your actual paper gain in your port might be less than the published one on the web.
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like most of the result...it would be EXCLUDING fees..
1 yr 0.5% ...10 yrs 5%....just deduct the % from the total returns....

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 29 2017, 11:29 AM
puchongite
post May 29 2017, 11:35 AM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ May 29 2017, 11:28 AM)
like most of the result...it would be EXCLUDING fees..
1 yr 0.5% ...10 yrs 5%....just deduct the % from the total returns....
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Deduct also the one time charge.
SUSyklooi
post May 29 2017, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ May 29 2017, 11:35 AM)
Deduct also the one time charge.
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YES...divided on the number of years ...

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 29 2017, 11:37 AM
ssajnani
post May 29 2017, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ May 29 2017, 11:15 AM)
Dasecret,

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

I was just jesting with you, I am no good with actual Monte - Carlo. However, I did use various UTFs and various Correlation - Coefficient to run multiple scenarios. Then I choose the most optimal risk to reward portfolio. The most tedious part for my Algozen™ is data entry.

RHB AIF and Ponzi 2 have very high correlation to AMReits and ManuReits. 90% correlated. When the UTFs are very correlated, it would be wise to choose the one which offer the better risk to reward ratio. With regards to ManuReits and AMReits, these two are very similar in terms of risk adjusted performance that is to say, ManuReits give better return but it comes with greated volatility compared to AMReits. In the end, I decided to go with AMReits because it has lower volatility (more stable) and let my India and TA-GTF act as the alpha - maker (forward striker in football parlance)

However, if one wishes to substitute ManuReits with AmReits, it is perfectly OK as both Manu and AMReits have around 95% correlation. If one looking at individual UTF, then one will say ManuReits make sense as it return is better. But when one is constructing a portfolio, many other parameters comes into play.

Xuzen.
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Hi Mr Xuzen,

Do you find it odd that Manulife India price didnt change from 24th and 25th? Cos the price of the index went up quite a bit on 24th and 25th (the shares in Manulife also went up many around 2-3%).
Avangelice
post May 29 2017, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(ssajnani @ May 29 2017, 12:07 PM)
Hi Mr Xuzen,

Do you find it odd that Manulife India price didnt change from 24th and 25th? Cos the price of the index went up quite a bit on 24th and 25th (the shares in Manulife also went up many around 2-3%).
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Unit trust ain't like stocks. There will be a delay in price updates as it takes time to consolidate how much is that total investments made by the fund, calculate them into units and inform the investors how much is the updated price.
T231H
post May 29 2017, 12:13 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ May 29 2017, 12:11 PM)
Unit trust ain't like stocks. There will be a delay in price updates as it takes time to consolidate how much is that total investments made by the fund, calculate them into units and inform the investors how much is the updated price.
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may i add on abit...
there is forex mkt data timing also
puchongite
post May 29 2017, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(ssajnani @ May 29 2017, 12:07 PM)
Hi Mr Xuzen,

Do you find it odd that Manulife India price didnt change from 24th and 25th? Cos the price of the index went up quite a bit on 24th and 25th (the shares in Manulife also went up many around 2-3%).
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25th maybe trading day but according to someone ( which I did not go to verify ) it is a fund holiday. So maybe the local office is off.

p/s: India Nav on 26th increased 2.76%, so they accumulated the gain over the two days.

This post has been edited by puchongite: May 29 2017, 12:58 PM
dasecret
post May 29 2017, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ May 29 2017, 11:15 AM)
Dasecret,

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

I was just jesting with you, I am no good with actual Monte - Carlo. However, I did use various UTFs and various Correlation - Coefficient to run multiple scenarios. Then I choose the most optimal risk to reward portfolio. The most tedious part for my Algozen™ is data entry.

RHB AIF and Ponzi 2 have very high correlation to AMReits and ManuReits. 90% correlated. When the UTFs are very correlated, it would be wise to choose the one which offer the better risk to reward ratio. With regards to ManuReits and AMReits, these two are very similar in terms of risk adjusted performance that is to say, ManuReits give better return but it comes with greated volatility compared to AMReits. In the end, I decided to go with AMReits because it has lower volatility (more stable) and let my India and TA-GTF act as the alpha - maker (forward striker in football parlance)

However, if one wishes to substitute ManuReits with AmReits, it is perfectly OK as both Manu and AMReits have around 95% correlation. If one looking at individual UTF, then one will say ManuReits make sense as it return is better. But when one is constructing a portfolio, many other parameters comes into play.

Xuzen.
*
Just find it interesting that ponzi 2 which is a pure EQ fund to be highly correlated to a pure REITs fund. AIF I can understand since it does invest quite a bit into REITs on top of FI and EQ

QUOTE(Steven7 @ May 29 2017, 11:19 AM)
Well don't get too carried away with all these AI hype, speaking from a tenured Software Engineer who has worked with multiple AI and machine learning problem. Here is a good read for you https://backchannel.com/the-myth-of-a-super...ai-59282b686c62 I still prefer a little human touch when it comes to investing and I definitely don't trust the newcomers (Smartly, StashAway) AI yet as they are nowhere close to AlphaGo, the main reason being Google is way too ahead in this AI realm
*
QUOTE(Steven7 @ May 29 2017, 11:26 AM)
To build on your reply, yes most AI is still built by humans with some exceptions, for instance, Google's AI is building a better AI compared to its engineers but I agree with you that we can't rely on full robo-advisory yet for now (on my previous reply). Speaking of which, predictive analytics is always an interesting problem in AI (in fact I am working something like that right now but on a different context).

Quick unrelated fun read: There is an open-source project that does the following, monitor Trump's feed, process each tweet by extracting the company name mentioned & perform sentiment analysis on the text, if its good sentiment buy the stock of the company thru TradeKing API immediately and vice versa. The simulated portfolios earns a shit ton of money.
*
Now, the prices of the stocks mentioned in Trump's tweet going up and down; isn't that also due to the investors manual speculation? So machines are just doing it faster to gain that competitive edgewhile the investors are still sleeping or haven't read the news

This is the kind of conversation I find interesting thumbup.gif
Great that you are in the front line of the technological change, I know little of these stuffs other than what my brother feeds me sometimes. Since I'm in the no.1 profession to be made redundant with technological advances, I'm keeping a close eye on the tech developments and hopefully can put myself in a position to still remain relevant for the rest of my working life
xuzen
post May 29 2017, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(ssajnani @ May 29 2017, 12:07 PM)
Hi Mr Xuzen,

Do you find it odd that Manulife India price didnt change from 24th and 25th? Cos the price of the index went up quite a bit on 24th and 25th (the shares in Manulife also went up many around 2-3%).
*
D1U! This type of question go and ask Jennifer wub.gif wub.gif wub.gif or Hui Ching wub.gif wub.gif wub.gif lar! Why ask me? Give you chance to go ask leng-luis. If not, click on Manulife website and check the price yourself lor... like this also want to ask doh.gif N!4M4H!

QUOTE(dasecret @ May 29 2017, 01:35 PM)
Just find it interesting that ponzi 2 which is a pure EQ fund to be highly correlated to a pure REITs fund. AIF I can understand since it does invest quite a bit into REITs on top of FI and EQ
Now, the prices of the stocks mentioned in Trump's tweet going up and down; isn't that also due to the investors manual speculation? So machines are just doing it faster to gain that competitive edgewhile the investors are still sleeping or haven't read the news

This is the kind of conversation I find interesting  thumbup.gif
Great that you are in the front line of the technological change, I know little of these stuffs other than what my brother feeds me sometimes. Since I'm in the no.1 profession to be made redundant with technological advances, I'm keeping a close eye on the tech developments and hopefully can put myself in a position to still remain relevant for the rest of my working life
*
That is why hor, if we do not research, our common - sense can be not so common wan....
grimmjaw00
post May 29 2017, 02:55 PM

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What happened to TA EUROPEAN EQUITY FUND?
Drop like crazy
T231H
post May 29 2017, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(grimmjaw00 @ May 29 2017, 02:55 PM)
What happened to TA EUROPEAN EQUITY FUND?
Drop like crazy
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see this?
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/fundi...nouncement.svdo
Ramjade
post May 29 2017, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ May 29 2017, 02:44 PM)
That is why hor, if we do not research, our common - sense can be not so common wan....
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How can they be correlated (ponzi 2 and amasia)? One invest in equity and there's nothing mentioned in the factsheet about property. One invest only in reits. Amasia invest 20%+ in Japan while Ponzi 2 doesn't have any Japan holdings.
puchongite
post May 29 2017, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ May 29 2017, 03:00 PM)
How can they be correlated (ponzi 2 and amasia)? One invest in equity and there's nothing mentioned in the factsheet about property. One invest only in reits. Amasia invest 20%+ in Japan while Ponzi 2 doesn't have any Japan holdings.
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Correlated based on mathematics lar, no need to offer you the reason why they are correlated. brows.gif
Ramjade
post May 29 2017, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ May 29 2017, 03:06 PM)
Correlated based on mathematics lar, no need to offer you the reason why they are correlated.  brows.gif
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Wah if based on mathematics, macam mana nak kira? Ada formula atau proprietary formula?
puchongite
post May 29 2017, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ May 29 2017, 03:09 PM)
Wah if based on mathematics, macam mana nak kira? Ada formula atau proprietary formula?
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Google before Xuzen scolds you. devil.gif
SUSjdgobio
post May 29 2017, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ May 29 2017, 03:09 PM)
Wah if based on mathematics, macam mana nak kira? Ada formula atau proprietary formula?
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Correlation means that they somehow move in the same direction up down and similar quantum of movement. So that it can be inferred that they are somehow moving in tandem. It does not mean that they are the same asset class.

This post has been edited by jdgobio: May 29 2017, 03:24 PM
T231H
post May 29 2017, 03:33 PM

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WHAT IS CORRELATION?

The word Correlation is a combination of Co- (meaning "together") and Relation. Correlation is the relationship between two data sets, and how they move in tandem with each other.

What Is Correlation? - Part 1/4
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=4919

Correlation Between Assets - Part 2/4
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=4948

The Mathematics Of Diversification - Part 3/4
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=4978

How To Use Correlation To Build Portfolios - Part 4/4
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=5000


dasecret
post May 29 2017, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ May 29 2017, 02:44 PM)

That is why hor, if we do not research, our common - sense can be not so common wan....
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QUOTE(Ramjade @ May 29 2017, 03:00 PM)
How can they be correlated (ponzi 2 and amasia)? One invest in equity and there's nothing mentioned in the factsheet about property. One invest only in reits. Amasia invest 20%+ in Japan while Ponzi 2 doesn't have any Japan holdings.
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QUOTE(puchongite @ May 29 2017, 03:06 PM)
Correlated based on mathematics lar, no need to offer you the reason why they are correlated.  brows.gif
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This discussion feels like dejavu; ini correlation based on USD returns ke based on MYR returns? Long long time ago we discussed this ma; the high correlation could just be currency correlation instead of underlying asset correlation

I have no access to MYR correlation cry.gif


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