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FundSuperMart v18 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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ssajnani	May 29 2017, 12:07 PM Return to original view \| Post #1
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(xuzen @ May 29 2017, 11:15 AM) Dasecret, » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Hmm.... what kind of monte carlo method you use to be able to come out with a decision of allocation for specific funds? I thought monte carlo helps with probability, sensitivity, scenarios etc. that's why the FSM one would just show you where the different scenarios would end up in that chart I was just jesting with you, I am no good with actual Monte - Carlo. However, I did use various UTFs and various Correlation - Coefficient to run multiple scenarios. Then I choose the most optimal risk to reward portfolio. The most tedious part for my Algozen™ is data entry. RHB AIF and Ponzi 2 have very high correlation to AMReits and ManuReits. 90% correlated. When the UTFs are very correlated, it would be wise to choose the one which offer the better risk to reward ratio. With regards to ManuReits and AMReits, these two are very similar in terms of risk adjusted performance that is to say, ManuReits give better return but it comes with greated volatility compared to AMReits. In the end, I decided to go with AMReits because it has lower volatility (more stable) and let my India and TA-GTF act as the alpha - maker (forward striker in football parlance) However, if one wishes to substitute ManuReits with AmReits, it is perfectly OK as both Manu and AMReits have around 95% correlation. If one looking at individual UTF, then one will say ManuReits make sense as it return is better. But when one is constructing a portfolio, many other parameters comes into play. Xuzen. Hi Mr Xuzen, Do you find it odd that Manulife India price didnt change from 24th and 25th? Cos the price of the index went up quite a bit on 24th and 25th (the shares in Manulife also went up many around 2-3%).
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ssajnani	Jan 3 2018, 12:16 PM Return to original view \| Post #2
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(xuzen @ Jan 2 2018, 11:57 AM) I now have a historical data from period 1st Jan 2017 to 1st Jan 2018 ( exactly one year data ). My port did a 7.XX% ROI, close to 8% p.a. In my twelve months of tracking, only one month registered a loss, that is in Nov 2017. Std-Dev is also around 7.XX% making my risk to reward ratio around 0.9 Skewness is mildly positive around 0.19 meaning the port has a slight tendency to gravitate towards positive return. Relative Kurtosis is negative meaning the data points tend to gravitate towards the mean and not diversely spread out. ===================== Action plan for Jan 2018: Top up: 1) RM 500.00 into Manureits: This is my defender. A cross between a pure bond and balanced fund. She will provide me stable return and also good diversification. 2) RM 1,000.00 into KGF. I am bullish / above neutral on Malaysia exposure because: PRU-14 effect, expected good corporate earning in Q4Yr2017, KLCI is now the cheapest PER amongs ASEAN peer, oversold, Foreign fund inflow expected. 3) RM 500.00 into Eastspring Dinasti. Hang Seng index PER is still in the single digit region. Cheap... bargain sale! 4) I'll give a neutral call on the US now. I'll stop buying TA Tech because US has very high PER , but I won't sell yet because their economic numbers remain robust. Unemployment rate is low meaning the people there have jobs and when they have jobs, they have money to spend. Which will raise domestic consumption. Tax reform, meaning less tax = higher earning for the US Company. US PMI index is above 50, meaning the production is expanding which means manufacturer are producing more goods. Kitty & Ancient-XinG, the above are what my Lic FP shared with me during my tok-kok / yamcha / blow water session during New year eve. Xuzen P/S Let us Huat together - gether in 2018! Bro Xuzen, So you will have IDS and KGF? Regards,
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ssajnani	Feb 2 2018, 10:57 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #3
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(xuzen @ Feb 2 2018, 11:12 AM) Another month has passed and it is time for Algoport™ ver four update: Jan 2018 is a suckish month for my port. I made a loss of 0.4% M-o-M. The loss is mainly from IDS [ -5.22 % ] and RHB - EMB [ -3.64% ]. Both I have sold mid Jan 18 with a cut - loss intention. Moved them to Dinasti and KGF. IDS was an experimental exposure for me, I placed only a small amount, about RM 15K only for test water. As for RHB - EMB, I entered in July 2017 because it offered a good risk to reward ratio [ 1.5 ] at that time and a low corr-coeff. It was also a bet on the strong USD / MYR movement. Now, two of the three criterias are no longer there, it does not look attractive to me anymore and have no place in my port. Forex is a double edged sword. It cuts both ways... I shall remember that. For those who play forex, remember, you are a trader not an investor. In my book, a trader role is buy-sell an asset, whereas an investors are passive, they are not concern with the daily up and down. Neither are wrong and both group of people can make money. You just need to be aware which group you belong too because the strategies employed will be different. On Esther bond, she is behaving badly recently... like Aoi Sora on a bad flu day. I have identified a replacement for her. I have also identified the exit point, if and when she [ Esther Bond ] hits a certain threshold, she will be replaced. On the winner side, I have TA Tech, KGF and Dinasti to mitigate my loss. Some technical indicators: 12 mths rolling ROI is 6.XX % 12 months rolling Std-dev is 8.XX% 12 months rolling risk to reward ratio < 1. Not so good... will try to be better. Skewness is slight positive, which means the port has a slight tendency to have an outcome that is +ve to the mean. Kurtosis is negative. Negative kurtosis means that the data points have greater tendency to congregate at the mean outcome than a positive kurtosis. In lay man's term, positive kurtosis aka excess kurtosis means the sample set has a greater tendency for extreme outlier outcome. If you want your port to be stable and predictable, you shall prefer a negative kurtosis. If you are, say a swing trader who prefers to bet on buy - sell, then a positive kurtosis is better for you. Xuzen p/s Nothing much to be excited about my port, now looking forward to another ang-pow / bonus. That is to say, KWSP's distribution announcement. Two more weeks of waiting. Please take note that SSPN has already announced their 4% dividend for 2017, and the dividend is already in the system. So what funds are you choosing moving forward?
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ssajnani	Jul 22 2018, 10:07 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #4
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(xuzen @ Jul 22 2018, 12:27 PM) next algozen™ ver. 4 reading end of this month. I purposely skipped one reading in quarter two because of the irrationality of the market. Looking forward to it as always:)
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ssajnani	Aug 7 2018, 08:23 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #5
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	Hopefully now it goes for a long positive run. What do you guys think ?
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ssajnani	Sep 26 2018, 06:52 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #6
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	What are everyone's thoughts for the last quarter? Any region you think will perform?
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ssajnani	Oct 11 2018, 12:40 PM Return to original view \| Post #7
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 11 2018, 11:48 AM) Ini kali la. Duit sudah rot banyak kat MMF. Good for you but do remember a lot of people are losing money during this period so be little sensitive. And before you jump to conclusion, I removed my funds from FSM 6 weeks ago and on the sideline for the time being. I read your post and you sound so full of yourself.
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ssajnani	Oct 11 2018, 01:33 PM Return to original view \| Post #8
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(ehwee @ Oct 11 2018, 01:32 PM) Man, today market RED blood made me very exciting lol Were you boring before this?
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ssajnani	Oct 11 2018, 03:37 PM Return to original view \| Post #9
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 11 2018, 02:08 PM) People lose money because they keep chasing things. Things so expensive also want to buy. Wait for sale first la. Want to buy when no sale available. Yes I did lose some money but when things are cheap, no need to scared. Buy. I have waited quite long for this. A little bit longer won't hurt. I think can pull trigger and use up my PRS slot for this year tomorrow or the day after that.Some things are looking cheap but still not my definition of cheap yet. 20-30% cheap or same price with my entry price then consider cheap. So you are the all knowing all wise? You know when not to chase and when to buy? What if someone new to stock market bought shares last month? Would that be considered chasing? Is there a formula that can tell when stocks are expensive or cheap? If you have even an ounce of matter between your head, its hard to answer these questions. Many factors will have an effect. Since this is a long term game, how can we say someone is "chasing" when they invest? But I realise everytime the market drops, you are on here celebrating the drop because you will buy it "cheaper" but do remember unlike you, there are many others who are invested during this time who is hurting from the drop. Be little sensitive and not a know it all donkey all the time.
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ssajnani	Oct 11 2018, 06:46 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #10
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 11 2018, 04:09 PM) There are 2 ways of investing. Buy whether it or down. That's your DCA. Buy whenever something is considered cheap. If one want to invest, one need to brace for such thing. 2% drop in one day and start panicing? Good luck then. Try 15% drop. Why 15%? Personal experience. Second thing is know what you want to buy, why are you buying it. Third like I said, what's the rush to buy? FOMO? Always, always be prepare means have cash ready to invest in such times. If it goes cheaper, I will be happier as it means I can accumulate more. These are things no one taught me so I doing a favour by sharing what I learnt. Hello Yoda You are missing the point. You are too wise to explain anything to. Everyone should be like you and listen to your beliefs and way of life. Thank you oh wise one.
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ssajnani	Oct 11 2018, 08:37 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #11
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 11 2018, 07:23 PM) Is about having read the right things written by the right person which I was lucky to read and lucky that the few person decided to continue writing. ASG la. I keep in MMF. Once amount reach certain lvl, transfer over to SG when price is right. If exchange rate not nice, continue monitoring. Again as mentioned why pay higher price when you can get it at lower price? While waiting, my dividend stocks are slowly filling up my bank account combine that with salary + cashback from cc. It's perfectly fine to seat on cash when there's nothing to buy. All hail bro Ramjade. Continue being a ****
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ssajnani	Oct 11 2018, 10:09 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #12
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 11 2018, 08:52 PM) I sharing knowledge. Any issues with sharing knowledge? Again only invest if you don't need the money. Never invest if you need it. Yes for me I prefer to see market down rather than up. Weird right? Up is very boring. Up means I can't deploy my cash. Market down more interesting as lots of thing are on discount. Sharing knowledge is one thing. Rejoicing when market is down knowing lots getting affected is another thing. You maybe happy to buy cheap but it does not harm to be little sensitive to others. Is that so difficult to understand? Are you that thick? Also if you prefer market down, then how you expect a return if all you think of it being down all the time? Cuckoo?
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ssajnani	Oct 11 2018, 10:31 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #13
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 11 2018, 10:20 PM) If you don't sell, what loss is there? Unless you use margin, then good luck. Market losses will eventually rebound. The question is how long and whether you can tahan seeing your portfolio continue in red. If one cannot tahan portfolio in red, best to go for safe investment such as FD, ASNB and EPF. UT investing is not for them as they can't take it. To invest is to able accept losses. I'm sure you must be one popular person. Super fun to hang around with. Read my first paragraph..been repeating the same thing over and over again but you cant understand. I'm done..good luck.
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ssajnani	Oct 12 2018, 09:43 AM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #14
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Oct 12 2018, 09:00 AM) IMHO, people who can't stand the heat should not be in the kitchen. Leave the cooking to the cooks. Bitching about statement of facts & sound principles of investing, NOT trading or main tikam pun kena.. sigh.. instead of learning & structuring one's investment approach / principles, bitch that others are belittling (yes, that's how it's spelt) them pulak. Not just this thread, on another thread quite recently too - forumer earning 20K net pm bitching that people can't save enough to invest That's why may older/more experienced farts have taken to being ninjas on the forum - when sharing, kena accused pulak, instead of being discussed on why it works or not. In the end, knowledge & experience is lost as it is discussed/shared less & less coz it's like "playing pianos for cows" (literal Cantonese translation). No one is talking about unable to take the heat or education. Taking the heat is normal in investing. We all did this year. And we all accept education with open arms. If you read my post, all I said was do not be insensitive in celebrating each time market crashes. I am sure many are losing money so no need to be in their face type of person. Everytime I see market go down, I see many people mentioning their loss and I feel bad eventhough for me market going down at the moment is good since I have removed my funds. But do you see me celebrating about it? What is wrong in having little consideration to others ??Nothing to do being a ninja zombie or any stupid makes it want to give it. Just be a little human. That's all !! Encouraging an a hole to be an even bigger a hole. This post has been edited by ssajnani: Oct 12 2018, 09:44 AM
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ssajnani	Oct 12 2018, 02:13 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #15
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	Again if you read my first post, it was nothing to do with him sharing his knowledge. I am more than happy to learn from EVERYONE. I just said it's a little insensitive for him to come here and celebrate each time market drops. Others are losing money and it's being inconsiderate. Some may argue it's paper loss but such crash can take time to recover. A lot of people have losses this year and eventhough it maybr paper loss, it still doesn't feel good.
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ssajnani	Oct 12 2018, 02:43 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #16
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Oct 12 2018, 02:32 PM) But you cant control what other people say on the internet. People can do say all sorts of stuff especially in a forum like this. Not happy, keep on scrolling. See something which you think is good, continue reading/learning. True. My mistake. Was just an advice that snowballed into something else.
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ssajnani	Oct 18 2018, 03:35 PM Return to original view \| Post #17
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 18 2018, 02:49 PM) To time the market or not in Unit Trust Investing. This is the question that is commonly asked by noobs and veterans alike. My stand is don't time, do DCA. What I said above does not mean to say that timing market is bad, it is just in UTF investing, timing it is bad. Below are my explanations: » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « 1) UTF is not stock. It's price does not reflect the true price, it is a just a collective price of its marked-to-market price of all its ssets under its trust account. Confused? Let's take Kenanga Growth Fund, a perrenial favourite of FSM kakis. It's top holding consist of TNB and MBB. Now, as of yesterday, its NAV is RM1.105. So, what is actual price? TNB is not RM 1.105 neither is MBB. So how come KGF is RM 1.105? This RM 1.0105 is not a true value for KGF but rather , what I would call a transactional price. A price for the purpose of transaction. 2) So the question is how do you find out the true value of a UTF? This then, in my opinion, the true value of the UTF is the capability of the fund manager. There are of course financial metrics to evaluate the capabilities of the fund manager such as Sharpe, Sortino, Modigiliani ratio etc which is beyond the scope of my article here. 3) So, why not buy when the price of UTF is low and sell when higher. This is because, looking at the NAV alone or the transactional price alone is misleading as the NAV can be manipulated by the fund manager by various methods such as Unit Split, declaring distribution etc... 4) when you put money into UTF, the fund manager would have taken the liberty to time the market for you in a sense, he / she would deemed when is the suitable time to buy a certain counter or not. Let's consider Affin Hwang Select Dividend fund, in its latest Fund Fact Sheet, she is holding 22% cash. Why is the fund manager holding cash when this is an equity fund? This is because the fund manager has decided to time the market of when to enter the remaining cash. Hence, as a unit trust participants, you are doing double job. Timing the market is already done by the fund manager for you for a fee. Hence, let the fund manager do his / her job. Our job is to evaluate the capability of the fund manager. 5) So, if that is the case, what good is DCA? DCA reduces the concentration risk. It spread out your risk of entering the market. Imagine what would happen to your portfolio if you enter all at once in Feb 2018 versus if you enter 10% every month bit-by-bit until now. Which method would suffer greater lost? Will DCA increase your return? No it will not. Also, DCA is a method for retail participants to slowly build up their equity participation because not everyone has a lump sum to begin with. Many are just your regular working Joe and Jane who save a little bit here and there every month. 6) My final say is, timing the market is an investment strategy that works poorly with unit trust. It is better to DCA it, and let the fund manager do his / her job. Before anyone misquote me or misunderstand me, I repeat, I am not saying timing the market is bad. All I am saying is using Unit Trust as a product to time the market is bad idea. Thank you for your attention. Xuzen Always look forward to your post Looking forward to your thought moving forward
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ssajnani	Oct 18 2018, 09:43 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #18
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 18 2018, 06:14 PM) Simpan cash in MMF until enough to send over to SG, then seat in cash. When discount come, buy cheap dividend socks which able to generate 6-8%p.a dividend for reits. For non reits, get 4-5% dividend which can grow annually. If price good, divert some to good UT in SG If price no good collect dividend and wait. Think I talk kok? I have a plan and I stick to it. I don't chase when price shoots up. Convert now while SGD still cheap. Experiment to transfer cash to UK for future... So you celebrate price going down but now can't buy?
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ssajnani	Oct 18 2018, 10:36 PM Return to original view \| IPv6 \| Post #19
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 18 2018, 09:48 PM) Price rebound and what to buy? Market not in panic mode yet. What's the hurry? Save up cash first. Haven't even drop below my entry price and I want to buy? Sorry, no thank you. I don't chase price. I let the price come to me. Lagi green, I just close my PC. No need to see. Lagi red lagi I suka. Lagi red may present me buying opportunity if price is attractive enough. Otherwise, as mentioned, what's the hurry? And the price do not go to the point you want? Just wait and wait? What if there's a bull run?
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ssajnani	Oct 19 2018, 12:21 PM Return to original view \| Post #20
Getting Started Junior Member 247 posts Joined: Jan 2012	QUOTE(xuzen @ Oct 19 2018, 10:47 AM) Let me tell you all a story: Near my workplace, is a BMW showroom. I know of an uncle who always go look see look see take brochure, tok-kok with those pwetty ah mois salesgirl there regularly. When asked bila mau beli sebiji Beemers, he will give tonnes of excuses but mainly he will say will let the price come down a bit first. Then when no GST / no SST time come, he also says see first. He is not in hurry to buy. Now SST come in liao, he says price is expensive... will still see first. Sounds familiar? p/s : That Uncle is definitely not me, OK! Xuzen I think uncle waiting when they will offer for free.
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