here we go... first prediction of coming inflation - 40%!


seriously, i expect official inflation figure to be still <5% in a yr's time but...

i expect 25-30% overall price incr for urban consumer spending, be it kopi-o, pizza, car battery or ipad.

after price goes up, they never come down.

now, if oil/petrol price rise 10%, 40% actual price incr in a yr's time is very possible.

such shockers coupled with imprudent budgets already seen in several other countries of late.

To me, for people earning the SGD, I think the per-entry fee into JB is negligible. But for people driving Msian-registered motor vehicles in the island, the VEP is 'visible'. Somemore, if you cross underneath any gantry during peak hours, you get hit by gantry toll charges too.

I treasured the 10 VEP-free Entry Days per year that they gave.

Do you think inflation will apply to property sector and pricing too?

i think it will be better if 20:50:30, the 30 in something else outside asia.

u never know when some regional disaster can strike - SARS, bombs, conflicts...

property being hard illiquid assets cannot be lumped with consumer goods.

cost of construction will surely rise but if few buyers, developers stop building and wait.

subsale market - will depend on many things - location, loan availability, int rates...

actually, for props, it is interesting to watch from now on - prices have been high but now inflation should push it even higher.

i believe prop market now is weak... i will buy a home to live in or do biz but not to speculate.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 21 2015, 04:07 PM

The Saudis have reserve which can last them 20+ years. The rest of the world aren't that lucky. So it will be see who will bleed first.

They can increase the price of oil but then the shale will become profitable. Then they need to lower it compete with shale.

But if ME is turned into war zone, situation will reverse. Saudi has started to involve directly in regional conflicts esp Yemen. War cost is scary, 20years reserves can be gone in 5 years.

This post has been edited by MGM: Sep 21 2015, 04:02 PM

Malaysian ringgit can recover once 1MDB issue resolved - BNM Governor
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/m...?type=Corporate

But how much would you pay?

just a figure of speech.

i actually have one to sell.

So do i actually...........

i can't remember if u were in the hot-hot-hot prop threads a couple of years ago.

maybe not so hot now.

No. That's not me.

Hardly visit the prop thread. Yeap....bubbles appearing everywhere

As said, it is the expense of inflation that everyone need to face.

Our wages got more "expensive" or not?
The answer is so obvious.
So labour cost become cheaper. So not every cost rise if you look at company level perspective.

While when RM depreciated to RM4.25,
Last time if you got RM100 bil foreign investors that want to repatriate the money back, BNM need to fork out USD33 bil from foreign currency reserves to exchange it.
Now at Rm4.25, BNM only need to fork out USD23.5

Don't get me wrong, I am not advocate for a weak currency, but just to point out the dynamic of currency depreciation effect.
Nobody like a depreciated currency.

CPF cannot take out to use one until you get old....Still not good enough

They are all businessmen. They have their own interest to protect. When every player suffer enough, they will sit down and talk. Then another "Opec" will emerge. This is another possibility

Oil is not like FMCG. They can form cartel for their own benefit. There is no anti-trust law governing them. They are the law.

Nothing is static. Especially when you talk about money, people will be very creative

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ec-calls-for-80

are you prepared to eat your own words?

ps, what ever I have mentioned in the past, I'm still backing it.. long term, you should prepare for a new monetary system.

If I am not wrong the last time when oil price was damn low, countries like Venezuela, and other non ME country beg Saudi to cut production. But Saudi didn't cut. Instead they pump more.

They are competing with shale oil. See who will die first. So if other countries already beg them, and it didn't have any effect, I am sure they will continue through with low prices.

Would like to hear your great strategies then. How you diversify your portfolio?

yes, i agree.

and add these:

.. there are lots of tankers on land and floaters at sea now holding all that excess oil.

.. china been stockpiling and will stockpile more.

it is a fact that the world now has excess oil, no shortage of supply for a long time.

you can have war in one place, other supplies will spring into action to fill the void.

and there are new oilfields being discovered; alternative energy sources being developed, esp solar and wind.

but... there are hedge funds driving price up and down but they only care for own profits in their longs and shorts.

i doubt we will ever see $100 oil again for a long time.

more likely $30-40 low and 50-60 high in the next decade.