Mine ? Very simple. I accumulate foreign currencies now SGD, USD and AUD and let them sit in bank doing nothing (except AUD got 2.x% interest). Occasionally play DCI when interest rate go up >20% with favourable exchange rate. Have sold 75% of my stock 3-6 months ago and waiting a little bit longer to buy back. Maybe Nov, Dec or next year

But the amount of forex is not as much as I would like to have. Well, everybody is greedy...

Your opinion noted

MYR drives at high spend today from 4.2070 on last Fri to 4.2635 now

Folks,

For those people that keep on changing my words, let me be VERY ACCURATE on what I am saying.

1) I am taking about Oil Money. Not Oil reserve and so on...

2) Malaysia may still have Oil Reserve but Oil Money can run out first.

3) Malaysia earn Oil Money by

A) Exporting more Oil and Gas than its own consumption. Aka, net exporter. Given that Malaysia has higher quality crude oil (sweet) than it needs to consume and sweet crude oil is worth a lot more money, Malaysia can be a small net importer and still earn Oil Money.

B) The difference between export and import multiply by Oil Price is the Oil Money.

C) Actually, Malaysia export more Natural Gas than crude oil. So, natural gas price affect oil money more. Asian had the highest price for natural gas. Asian Natural Gas price has not collapse yet. So, the worse is yet to come. Asian Natural Gas price is dued for a drop when US start exporting natural gas.

In summary, I am saying Malaysia is running out of Oil Money. It is not Oil Reserve. Malaysia is not running out of oil and gas.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 21 2015, 10:27 PM

This is extremely unlikely. You can have a look at the last 10 years and see how often it is below 60 us$.

Per topic thread, it suppose to discuss Forex USD / MYR ..

When strong greenback, many ppls good in highlite it and make many assumption of higher rate..
But now, when green back is weak, many ppls "talk other matter" .

Shale oil was not in the market until recently.

When ?

Showtime747,

If you are really interested, check out my "sinking ship" thread at RWI forum.

Dreamer

If you are really a man with balls and meant what you say, it is only a one line statement to type here. Is that very difficult ?

A prediction without time frame is like predicting "Malaysia will win the World Cup one day". I can BS and can never be proven wrong.

Or are you not confident enough about your own belief ? I thought you want to be "VERY ACCURATE" in what you are saying ?

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Sep 22 2015, 07:21 AM

Because, idiot.. if you haven't realised, trade, politics and economy happens to affect the currency..

There are many more factors..

If we are to discuss about purely forex, all you'll see in here is up or down.. no understanding or reasoning.. what a boring and pointless discussion.

Supply is not the only factor that determines the oil price.

Secondly, which oil supplying country would be happy with low oil prices for a long time?

Showtime747,

1) You need to hope that I am wrong. You need to hope that it is not too late.. I don't. I am prepared. Malaysia's economy can crash any time and it would not matter to me. In summary, you need to know when. I don't.

2) I wish you best of luck.

3) I am reaching a point in time that I no longer care to argue or debate about this. I had written and posted too many posts on this. If you are interested, you can read my posts and look at number and come up your own conclusion for the time frame.

4) You cannot buy confidence. You have to believe it yourself.

Dreamer

Trying to talk about something else to avoid giving yourself a time frame so nobody could prove you wrong ? That is the usual strategy of some feng shui master too

1. I have enough of overseas investment to tie me over. I have a business which earn USD and RMB since many years ago. 2 of my kids are workiing in Australian and UK now I can go there any time. Don't assume everybody is not prepared. I just want something concrete from you so I can put your prediction in perspective. Your prediction so far is "intangible" to me. Layman word - "catch no ball"

2. It is not about luck. If you are so confident, you would know roughly when malaysia's economy will crash.

3. Afraid to read my reply ? Because I press you to a point you can't answer. That's why you try to ignore me. You can't even give a simple straight answer

4. You are just not confident enough to give a simple time frame prediction, fearing me to laugh at your mistake. In other words, you are afraid to make mistake

Anyway, the readers can read how chicken you are

Ok, I shall stop until you give me a timeframe of your prediction. Apologies to all other readers for OTing

Showtime,..

You and Dreamer put up a very good debate. There was no-OTing,... All these matters are very related and hence, very relevant to the movements of the USD/MYR. Tq,...

Some of my takes :-

1) There is no clear answer yet on when the country will crash, though there are multiple models being built by different people.

2) But, though saying the above, Dreamer is saying repeatedly now that it is TOO LATE NOW to save ourselves, implying that, perhaps, the country has already crashed and we are trapped ?


We are not trapped.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 22 2015, 10:08 AM

The global economy could certainly recover within the next 10 years leading to an increase in demand.

50 US$ has only been around for less then a year.

Prior to this 100 US$ was the rough price for about 4 years.
I see no reason why it could not go back to this level within the next 10 years.

When oil well shut down and no new exploration or abandoned unprofitable oil well due to massive cut in capex, supply will be capped, by then, supply glut goes away, price creeping up.

Fracking oil producers also don't want to see oil price at USD40.

Oil price may stay lower for a year or 2 to 3 years down the road, but it won't last forever on low point.
If world economy pick up, demand will rise back up one.

This is another repeating history of oil glut during early 2000.

Business is very simple one, not profitable, supply will die down itself.

The one liner answer I expect from him is "when". Just a date/timeframe. How complex can that be ?


p/s no I won't accuse you of his supporter because I have not even heard of you before. You are not as famous as unker dreamer in LYN. Sorry but I have to let you know you are a nobody here

We'll see who will win within the next 10 years:
A Technology increasing supply
B Either or both of increasing demand and oil supplying countries/ suppliers who want more money for their product

I'll pick B.

I'll keep my major conflict ace in my pocket.

Ya I agree with you. Direction is there (that malaysia is heading for a tough time), but claiming the economy is doomed and will never recover is too extreme. That is too negative.

As a good investor, we should not write any possibilities off and bet everything in 1 go. The world is so fluid. Everything is possible. By "Sai Lang" on an extreme belief, these extreme investors are putting all their money in a 1 way traffic. If the direction changes, they could not take advantage of changing tides

I suspect unker dreamer has made a "Sai Lang" bet a few years ago. He wants to see his decision was right to prove to himself he is not wrong. Hence his extreme view. Just my guess