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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Showtime747
post Sep 9 2015, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 9 2015, 09:52 PM)
But this is a Crisis Budget, this budget and the strategies within should not be the normal cut-and-dry type anymore. There must be concrete tactics to help pull us out of this hole we are in. It's a Crisis Budget, man,...

I really don't know how to express myself better, just this, that it's a Crisis Budget.

For those gov't guys monitoring this thread, please tell your leaders that this is a Crisis Budget. If the PM can pull us out of this hole we are in with strong policies and strategies that produce results, he will be in the history books forever. A leader who, in spite of some setbacks along the way, managed to produce results.
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"Crisis budget" maybe. Even if it turns out to be a "crisis budget", you have to differentiate "whose crisis" it is. Is it a "National Crisis" or "personal crisis" ?

So if we really have a "crisis budget", then more budget will go to the 133 MPs, rural supporters, all the divisions in the party, and anything which will help in the alleviate "personal crisis"

Anyway, I hope the things you wish can be included in the budget, although I am less hopeful
Showtime747
post Sep 9 2015, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 9 2015, 11:13 PM)
rclxms.gif  thumbup.gif  sweat.gif
correct. needed to look at sreit blush.gif
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Beware of US interest hike. Choose those which is least affected by interest rise
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 10 2015, 10:41 AM)
Over the years, I have invested in KLSE unsystematically, I won some and lost some and felt that this is a no win situation. Maybe I have not mastered the tricks like so many of the experts here. Which is why I am comfortably invested in ASX knowing that they consistent gives 6-7% until the recent scares flaring out like wild fire. I am starting to look into asset diversification and corelation(don't want to be caught in the situation where 1 asset gain is canceled out by 1 lost).

I know of a friend who invested in China Stocks  over the last ten years. With a intial investment of RM1m in 2005, the value rose to RM5m in 2007, then it came down to RM1m+ after the crisis and dingdong there until this year when it rose to RM4m+. When I told him that 1 bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush, he replied that this time is different. Unfortunately it is now back to RM1m+. If he is to liquidate all now, he will still makes some money (may be 3-4%/pa). May be it is the rollercoaster feeling that he is after.
So this would be considered a long term investment but without appropriate timing of cashing out it is just like a rollercoaster ride.
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Just for investment variety sake, my experience in malaysian properties has been a lot more lucky. That is the best performance sector to me over 20+ years averaging low-mid teen % pa. Of course it is helped by the super bull run of the last few years and prices still not coming down (yet ?)
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(blogomatic @ Sep 10 2015, 09:22 PM)
think you've already made your point. up to them to decide on what to do. and name calling is so childish. sometimes I wonder why the mods don't do anything about you. in addition, there are more people who has lost money on other UT and stocks as compared to those invest in ASx.
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Let him be lah. He is like that. Just ignore him if you don't like his comment. He can voice his view as many times as he likes, and you can also ignore him as many times as you like. Unless he tagged you then you report him for baiting

Be confident with your own investment. If you are confident, what others say is just jokes to you.

I give you a joke now. I think unker is correct this time tongue.gif tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 09:57 PM)
this is an informative article about currencies oil exporting countries at this time.

perhaps.... can say:

.. msia with "strong fundamentals" is right in the center.
.. devalued russian ruble and to a lesser extent, vietnamese dong having devalued right after chinese rmb, are now stronger.
.. brunei is vulnerable but currency is pegged to sgd, will be interesting to watch.
.. msia's debt/gdp is on par with or worse than many african countries.
still, all commodity economies will not have it easy for a long time to come going by this article:
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I think over the years, many surprises hit us. Who predicted the oil price caused havoc last year ? I am sure there will be continued surprises unfolding in the next few months. Just when we thought US$ will continue its uptrend, suddenly a surprise will hit us and the tide changes 180 degree. Never know. Too many such surprises we encountered in the past
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 10:26 PM)
i have no idea what will change the tide but can see 2 threats coming - el nino-water supply shortage; illegal immigrants w/o jobs.
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Too many. Nobody knows. Everything is possible. tongue.gif

People used to say holding cash is not good, inflation will eat you up. But nowadays, holding cash in foreign currencies makes lots of money (in home currency term). Despite sitting in the account earning 0.xx% interest. It is the so called "investment" that may eat you up. Not inflation anymore.

But the next day, if something happens, suddenly tides turn.

Very volatile market. Good for high risk taker. Bad for low risk taker. Maybe just do nothing is better. This one I learn from Zeti tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:41 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM)
A lot of Ppl is opening new foreign currency a/c plus changing to foreign currency notes as they anticipate MYR will depreciates further against major foreign currencies
V will witness another herd mentality in foreign currency which is similar to properties few years back
However, tis Ppl fail to realize tat USD/MYR could make a u turn n start to appreciates
Wat tis Ppl gonna do when MYR runs wild on USD?
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That's right. I always wonder how high the US$ can go to a point it won't hurt its economy. There must be a limit. If not, their exports will suffer. And unemployment will increase.

If they raise interest now, it will hurt their export further.

Interesting to see how far the USA is willing to test their limit.
Showtime747
post Sep 10 2015, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 10:38 PM)
oh, i think they know.

what will reverse the trend will not be oil or cpo rebounding hard or china flies again.

it will be m wins, n leaves. this one is a matter of weeks or months, not years, imo.
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If transition is smooth, a deal is worked out between the parties, then all is good.

But if it is by force, then more fanfare will follows sweat.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 11 2015, 06:25 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 10 2015, 11:07 PM)
futile to worry about things like income tax, gst, gomen debt, buying new jets or ships - that, we can do nothing.

just manage the little savings we got, eat the food we like. laugh.gif
it's not that they want raise rates. it becos after almost a decade of near zero rates, their pension plans and insurance sector will soon go into meltdown if still no action. that will bring another lehman brothers, bad for the globe too.
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Yallen has a lot to worry about. Too many stakeholders will be affected by her decision. Even people in Malaysia are affected tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 11 2015, 06:29 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 11 2015, 02:37 AM)
Economic long term equilibrium always prevail. Most people have half understanding of economic and often the wrong half e.g the effect and fallout of US QE on gold price, kv property price, US interest rate, etc; China economy data on commodities price, etc.

Current onslaught on commodities and MYR started in 2014 and most people chose to ignore. US$ is expected to remain strong and stable in the medium term.

Unless one intend to trade US$ forex, need not hold US$ in cash. If one is unfamiliar with US stock, could hold in a number of ETF like DIA, SPY and IYR.
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Just to put you in perspective. If a person keep USD from say, this year, he would have gained around 15-18% in 8 month. Even if the cash is earning nothing in bank.

While if he invest in U.S. Stock, his return is -ve

That is what I mean keeping cash may be better in volatile market.

But everyone has his own strategy. No right or wrong
Showtime747
post Sep 12 2015, 08:24 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 12 2015, 06:59 PM)
usd/myr 4.30. then... 4.5, 4.7, 5.0 or 4.0, 3.8, 3.5?

perhaps can look at other battered currencies of comparable nations - emerging market, commodities based, high corruption, high debt.
from this list, some currencies are either too different or too strong to compare.

but look at south africa and mexico. and brazil, turkey.

against usd:

brazil -65%
turkey -37%
south africa -35%
mexico -27%

msia - 35%

brazilian real due to national oil company corruption scandal is now rated junk by global agencies, so it is among the worst in the world while rm is worst in asia pacific.

mexico and south africa like msia are at risk for rating downgrade.

of course, there are many other factors. question is which ones will really help the rm and which ones can drive it further down?

i would think if a rating downgrade comes, rm will go to 4.50 if everything else remain unchanged.
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If we take Brazil as the rock bottom, then RM will fall to a maximum of 5.2 to "achieve" -65%. About RM0.90 to depreciate. The show still can run on for quite a while
Showtime747
post Sep 18 2015, 08:08 AM

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QUOTE(KTCY @ Sep 18 2015, 07:52 AM)
Noob here. Just wondering if interest rate increase What will be the impact to market. If didn't then What will happen?
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I wish it was that simple. Interest rate increase --> then this happen, interest rate decrease --> then this happen.

Interest rate increase, by convention, stock market should come down. Yesterday interest rate no increase, stock market should celebrate and rise. But DJ come down.

Unpredictable


Showtime747
post Sep 18 2015, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 18 2015, 08:19 AM)
There is something called "baked in" the news already.

Financial market doesn't wait something to react.
It reacts way before hand.
Buy and rumour, sell on news.

DJ did spike up a lot when the news of no rate increase broke out, but soon profit taking sent it back down.

May be investors think deeper, wait, Fed no increase rate because economy not so strong, hence take a wary stand.
Just like as you have mentioned, sometimes thing is not as simple yes and no.

Rate increase - stock market should come down, but why rate can increase, because economy good and inflation, but economy good, stock market should go up as corporate earning will be good.
Rate decrease - stock market should go up, but why central bank decrease rate? because economy no good. Economy no good, corporate earning would be poor, stock should go down.

That's why analyst always have endless story to tell and reports to write, which can be a high pay lucrative job.  tongue.gif
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That's why at any day there are many factors which affect the direction. Fundamental is 1 side, sentiment is also the other side. Most of the times the market cannot be reasoned. If it can be reasoned and follow a set of rules (like interest increase ---> this will happen), then economist and psychologist will be the richest person
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post Sep 18 2015, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 18 2015, 10:26 AM)
if it is so predictable, everyone will be rich. laugh.gif
but what is impt is not to ignore some compelling facts.

e.g. china is slowing and will not pick up fast so soon; commodities prices will stay low for some years.

and... rm will likely stay low since there is really nothing major to help it strengthen significantly. tongue.gif
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RM will only rebound when oil price increase back to >$80 AND the political issues are resolved. Otherwise, no chance at all
Showtime747
post Sep 18 2015, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 18 2015, 10:55 AM)
If it's random then people like Warren Buffett would not exist. People used to believe in Random Walk Theory until he proved them wrong.
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Are you trolling me or suggesting there will be another Warren Buffett born in malaysia ? Or you think you are the WB of malaysia ? thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 18 2015, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 18 2015, 12:56 PM)
I guess that is your problem. My problem is how to invest in good companies at good prices without being irresponsible. It seems if you want to support good companies at good prices these days, you have to either kill small investors with short-term volatility, or become a traitor to your own country by investing outside of it.
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Irresponsible ?
Support good companies ?
Kill small investors ?
Traitor to your own country ?

tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif

Hey, you think too much and became confused with your objective in investing - making money

Your are out of topic. Please open another thread to talk about your objective in investing
Showtime747
post Sep 18 2015, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 18 2015, 01:13 PM)
tongue.gif Wodenus needs to open a thread about Patriotism.  tongue.gif
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Title - Investing patriotically and your responsibility to good companies and small investors

notworthy.gif
Showtime747
post Sep 19 2015, 08:34 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 08:06 AM)

I also believe that it is too late to diversified out at the current exch rate, so just have to wait out for the rebound.
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Just a few months ago when US$ touches 3.80 I also thought it is too late. Or BNM will intervene. Then it breached 4.00 psychology barrier and I thought that is the max it could go. And then it breached 4.30....is 4.50, 4.80, or even 5.00 coming ?

Now US$ is taking a breather. It is a good time to enter if you really believe in diversifying. There won't be the "best time" for investment. You can only see a longer term view of the RM - will it come back ? Or hopeless ? And then hold on to your foresight and act accordingly.

"Waiting for rebound" is just an excuse for the "not so bold" rolleyes.gif


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post Sep 19 2015, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 08:45 AM)
You r right I am no longer bold, cos I am no longer in prime years for investment, I am more into preserving my wealth.
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I am semi retired. I am also trying to preserve wealth too. To achieve that, putting some of the assets in non-RM denomination is a must, not an option. Even rich Singaporean, Chinese, Japanese etc invest overseas.

While I don't think like unker dreamer that Malaysia will be doom and never recover (because I have not seen a country bankrupt and all their people died), but if all your income is from Malaysia, you will feel the pain of inflation. Worse still if you have kids looking for overseas education

We have not seen the effect of RM depreciation yet. The worse will be here in the next few months and everyone especially the poor will feel the pinch. How to avoid it ? The only way is to have foreign currency income.

Never too late. Especially now that US$ is taking a breather
Showtime747
post Sep 19 2015, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 19 2015, 09:10 AM)
Showtime n dreamer, What is your take on properties in Mysia?
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Malaysian property is also getting a breather now and there may be some good opportunities. But I believe that only when economy takes a downturn when there are mass unemployment, then properties will go for cheap. So, be ready with a healthy balance sheet to seize the chance when recession comes.

For you, I think your priority is to shift some of your money to forex assets first. Make a portfolio rebalancing to mitigate the RM currency risk before you invest more into RM asset. That makes more sense for you

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