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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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prophetjul
post Sep 21 2015, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 03:49 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


i believe prop market now is weak... i will buy a home to live in or do biz but not to speculate.
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But how much would you pay? biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Sep 21 2015, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 04:50 PM)
just a figure of speech.

i actually have one to sell. tongue.gif
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So do i actually........... biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Sep 21 2015, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 05:05 PM)
i can't remember if u were in the hot-hot-hot prop threads a couple of years ago.

maybe not so hot now. biggrin.gif
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No. That's not me.

Hardly visit the prop thread. Yeap....bubbles appearing everywhere
prophetjul
post Sep 23 2015, 10:19 AM

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EEffects of economy- 3.7 to 3.9

Effects of 1MDB - 3.9 onwards
prophetjul
post Sep 23 2015, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 23 2015, 10:25 AM)
low inflation figures... u believe? biggrin.gif

gdp... let's watch for rest of the year.
as we speak, 4.348, passed last high of 4.339 on sep 8.
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on way to all time high of 4.7 cry.gif
prophetjul
post Sep 23 2015, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 23 2015, 11:24 AM)
Inflation figures only on essential stuff. Actual inflation on everything else is a lot higher  tongue.gif

Just like the unemployment figures in other 1st world country. USA, EU, Aust...actual is higher than official numbers

US$ is strong. Other currencies like AUD, SGD, Euro, GBP is still around the same level. From here, I think market sees US interest rate will hike this year already. If not October, then December. The recent Sept FOMC shows hike or no hike has little effect on the world market either way. Market is going down whatever Yallen decides. Makes Yellen's job a lot easier  tongue.gif

I better switch more to USD whenever there is chance. I think anything below 4.30 is good. Potential 4.50  thumbup.gif
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They have been talking about interest rate hike since beginning of 2014? biggrin.gif

Patience.................
prophetjul
post Sep 23 2015, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 23 2015, 11:39 AM)
Ya boss. They have been holding back since then. "One day" they will increase, surely !
P/S : "One day" is a very good open-ended time frame to use. I will never get wrong in a debate  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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Patience - Yellen

laugh.gif
prophetjul
post Sep 23 2015, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 23 2015, 11:53 AM)
the way i see it, our powerful ones have this attitude that everything under the sun can be controlled in their favor.

the words austerity, reduce wastage and cut backs do not exist in their dictionaries - this is the prime problem.

while u see austerity measures in brazil and russia being done now, we hardly see anything here but denials and blame games.

ya, there is 20b to dump into bursa, re-retraining and cash allowance to buy houses for some - but does it do anything at all?!

doing nothing can't improve the current account, can't reduce the budget deficit, can't bring back fdi, can't strengthen the rm.

unless commodities prices rebound esp oil to $70-80, there is no reason to think it will strengthen.

if conditions favor a strengthening, we will first see it in the rupiah and thai baht.

so, 4.50-4.70? u tell me! tongue.gif 

the answer will yet become clearer when we see budget 2016 next month.
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These goons do not understand how to manage a budget. That's why EVERy year they have to have a supplementary budget.

Nor do they have any business nous. That's why they can't generate long term sustainable business strategies. Their vision is all very short term.
They have no ideas of diversification of income streams, relying solely on natural resource most times. There is no vision of value adding. This shows their traits of lazy approach to long term sustainability.

All these and the demands of NEP bears on them like a perpetual anchor.

i like to see how crocked their present budget is. Is it true that this year's budget was based on $85 oil???????????? shocking.gif
i heard it from analyst on tv.
prophetjul
post Sep 23 2015, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 23 2015, 12:22 PM)
taiwan's twd lost less than sgd and thai baht.

but their exports under threat, now planning to cut rates, following the footsteps of s korea, oz, nz, indon, india, china.
ringgit so low, are exports exploding?

ringgit so low, how to cut rates?!

"between the devil and the deep blue sea.SHIT"
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prophetjul
post Sep 28 2015, 11:28 AM

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i am sending my daughter ti Melbourne early next year.
Proposed studies for 6 years in Architecture.

Just for discussion:

Where do you see the AUD: MYR at

a) next year

b) 2 years out

c) After that

??
prophetjul
post Oct 14 2015, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(Roger89 @ Oct 13 2015, 11:11 PM)
Bad time to do oil exploration when oil prices are plunging. Unlikely to recover given the fundamentals now.

They are on the opposite end of the curve. More losses then..
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On the contrary, exploration prices are dramatically down....best time because development won't be so fast.
It takes almost 5 to 8 years before and production can be realised.
prophetjul
post Oct 14 2015, 09:05 AM

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SG easing but SGD gaining vs USD? 1.3997 rclxub.gif
prophetjul
post Oct 14 2015, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 14 2015, 09:30 AM)
If the E&P (Exploration and Production) sector of the oil chain is down and is to the advantage of PETRONAS, that man would have announced so. But he did not.

Many big oil producers worldwide have stopped their E&P activities,... but our PETRONAS is doing the contrary ? MUst be something very drastic happening soon if they do NOT take this risk,.... That's how I read it, and this is in-line with the fact that he mentioned that Petronas' oil industry is maturing.
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Many big oil producers are public companies. They have to be seen to be prudent in these times. Many of them are not cost efficient, spoiled by the high oil prices.
So depends how one company's objectives differs from another. Some may deem that they have enough proven proven reserves for the time.

Whereas for Petronas, their objectives will be from that of a national oil producer and not a public company where profitability may not rank as high as sustainability.

So depending on objectives, if i was a national producer, it's really time to explore and increase reserves and improve sustainability of supply than not.
prophetjul
post Oct 14 2015, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 14 2015, 10:11 AM)
PETRONAS has PETRONAS Carigali and PETRONAS Dagangan. BOth are under the umbrella of the PETRONAS Group.

I wouldn't be too happy if I am a shareholder of PETDAG.

MOney is money, be it in the context of Gov't or private sector. If money is spent in the wrong way during these times, then it is WRONG. If you are right and our Gov't wants to prop up their image by spending money in a risky environment, then Msia is doing the wrong thing again. What's more with PETRONAS needing to dig into her reserves now.

I'm sorry - I can't agree with this move,... if it is just to show something to the people. I would liken it to throwing away our tax money again.
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Another you have to understand that E activities are cost recoverables in the event that there is discovery. So investment here is not necessarily bad.

Like i said if an oil company has no more oil reserves,what is it?
So in essence, a two edge sword.

BTW PetDag's expense should be lower with lower cost of raw materials.

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Oct 14 2015, 10:23 AM
prophetjul
post Oct 14 2015, 10:22 AM

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Global funds have pulled RM23.9 billion from Malaysian debt this year and RM17.6 billion from stocks amid the biggest slide in the ringgit among Asian currencies. The yield on its 10-year dollar notes has increased 52 basis points since they were sold in April to 3.52%. The price of 1MDB’s US currency debt dropped to a record 72 cents on October 5 and was 77 late on Monday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. While there’s “a growing risk” that Malaysia could be downgraded due to weaker growth and rising private debt, “the country’s fundamentals remain pretty strong elsewhere and the rating agencies have so far been willing to close their eyes to the 1MDB scandal and rising political risk,” said Anders Faergemann, the London-based senior sovereign manager at PineBridge Investments, which oversees US$77.7 billion globally.


- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.7ituvpIR.dpuf
prophetjul
post Oct 14 2015, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 14 2015, 10:31 AM)
gdp better than expected, confidence still good, mas move not agressive enough...

sgd strengthens! biggrin.gif

1.397, 3.026.
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Maybe they were expecting a technical recession and some how managed to dodge that, biggrin.gif

o.1%.......how close can one get?
prophetjul
post Oct 15 2015, 09:27 AM

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Some have said that gold no good. It protected my ringgit value.

Gold started the year around MYR4200 p oz.....now its approx 5,000. Approx 19% gain

USD started the year MYR3.5. Now its 4.2........approx 20% gain.........very similar.

However, its important to Diversify in uncharted times.

Cometh Deflation?

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Oct 15 2015, 09:28 AM
prophetjul
post Oct 15 2015, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 15 2015, 09:42 AM)
For time being, when RM falls, everything in foreign currencies denominated asset are protecting you the RM depreciation, be it
1. Gold is also a foreign currency denominated asset, or specifically USD denominated.
That's why we see identical gain with RM vs USD, while gold itself in USD has been stagnant.
So gold has a function of hedging RM vs USD.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
Did you know that in normal circumstances when USDX gains, gold falls? Gold held its price.

This time round it was different...........UNCHARTED waters. biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Oct 16 2015, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Oct 15 2015, 11:42 PM)
Dont' forget Oil price.

Oil price probably seen the worse/bottom. So most likely, it will go up.

And so will RM.
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Why has oil price bottomed?

i would think worse is yet to come with

a) World economy slowing aka China

b) Iran to contribute to supply next year
prophetjul
post Oct 16 2015, 09:25 AM

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Malaysian reserves down by US$22 billion, among sharpest falls -

user posted image

Mexico, Indonesia and Malaysia saw some of the sharpest falls in central bank reserves over the past quarter as investor flight from emerging markets forced policymakers to defend their currencies.

The issue has drawn particular attention after Chinese reserves, the world's biggest, fell by a record US$180 billion in the third quarter due to interventions to support the yuan after a mid-August devaluation.

But smaller emerging economies too are suffering steady reserve losses.



Investors withdrew a record US$40 billion from emerging stocks and bonds in the third quarter, the Institute of International Finance said.
Equities fell almost 20% and dollar bond yield spreads rose almost 100 basis points over US Treasuries.

Amid the turmoil, most countries tried to support their currencies, which hit record or multi-month lows against the dollar.

Mexican and Malaysian reserves fell by over US$12 billion between July and end-September, while Indonesia and South Korea lost US$6.3 billion and US$6.9 billion respectively, though some losses were down to euro-dollar exchange rate effects.

Malaysian reserves are down by US$22.7 billion or almost a fifth this year, and Indonesia has lost $10 billion or 9%.

"You are seeing net FX reserves depletion even when you strip out valuation effects," said UBS strategist Manik Narain, adding that pressure in the past three months had been the most acute since 2009, taking reserves to mid-2013 levels.

Nigeria has lost more than 12% of its reserves despite imposing capital curbs.

Some countries have been selling overseas securities, with Saudi Arabia last week reporting that the central bank's net foreign assets had fallen $6.6 billion in August to $655 billion, off last year's US$737 billion record high.

"With oil prices levelling off a bit, the drag on reserves for the likes of Malaysia and Saudi has reduced somewhat but overall risks are still skewed to the downside," Narain added.

What's more, headline reserve data in some countries may also be misleading. Brazilian reserves are stable at around US$370 billion, as the central bank does not tend to sell dollars directly, but it has a "forwards book" deficit amounting to US$108 billion, central bank data shows.

Taking into account this short-dollar position, reserves are much lower than they appear.

Reserves can be massaged in other ways.

Turkey's headline figure is a healthy US$117 billion but this includes commercial banks' hard currency reserve deposits at the central bank. Actual reserves are reckoned by analysts to be less than US$50 billion.

Reserves are still rising in some countries. Hong Kong authorities have been selling the local currency in the face of relentless upward pressure on its dollar peg and its reserves rose US$4.3 billion over the quarter and 5% since December.

Russia posted a quarterly rise of US$12 billion in headline reserves although they are down 5% over the year.

Indian reserves were flat over the quarter but have risen almost 10% this year. – Reuters, October 16, 2015.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.aFg15tFN.dpuf

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