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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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AVFAN
post Sep 22 2015, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 10:58 AM)
As a good investor, we should not write any possibilities off and bet everything in 1 go. The world is so fluid. Everything is possible. By "Sai Lang" on an extreme belief, these extreme investors are putting all their money in a 1 way traffic. If the direction changes, they could not take advantage of changing tides

I suspect unker dreamer has made a "Sai Lang" bet a few years ago. He wants to see his decision was right to prove to himself he is not wrong. Hence his extreme view. Just my guess  tongue.gif
*
i thought the options were 20-80, 50-50 and 80-20.

now, u r talking 0-100 or 100-0! laugh.gif

personally, i rather lean towards 80-20 until things clearly are changing.



as we speak, 4.2835.
Showtime747
post Sep 22 2015, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 11:06 AM)
i thought the options were 20-80, 50-50 and 80-20.

now, u r talking 0-100 or 100-0! laugh.gif

personally, i rather lean towards 80-20 until things clearly are changing.
as we speak, 4.2835.
*
Unker dreamer is 0-100. Me is 50-50. Still haven't achieved yet. I have learnt the lesson of not diversifying fast enough. Should have done it 10 years ago tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 22 2015, 11:29 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 11:16 AM)
Unker dreamer is 0-100. Me is 50-50. Still haven't achieved yet. I have learnt the lesson of not diversifying fast enough. Should have done it 10 years ago  tongue.gif
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currently, us and sg equities incl reits are relatively low priced.

trouble is if u have to liquidate the ones in bursa to buy them, tough...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 22 2015, 11:30 AM
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 10:58 AM)
Ya I agree with you. Direction is there (that malaysia is heading for a tough time), but claiming the economy is doomed and will never recover is too extreme. That is too negative.

As a good investor, we should not write any possibilities off and bet everything in 1 go. The world is so fluid. Everything is possible. By "Sai Lang" on an extreme belief, these extreme investors are putting all their money in a 1 way traffic. If the direction changes, they could not take advantage of changing tides

I suspect unker dreamer has made a "Sai Lang" bet a few years ago. He wants to see his decision was right to prove to himself he is not wrong. Hence his extreme view. Just my guess  tongue.gif
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hmm.gif ... on the above sentence in bold. Theoretically,... a good theory.

As I have always said, all investors could have been wrong one way or another. And one would always be right if the timeline given for a prediction to materialise is infinite.

If a doomed scenario cannot be articulated in terms of 'when', that prediction is highly doubted. When applied to a country, then an infinite time for the country to be doomed equates to the end of the world. No action needs to be taken then for an event of oblivion.

I am still keen to hear Dreamer's opinion on why it is too late now to 'correct' ourselves.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 22 2015, 11:58 AM
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 22 2015, 08:19 AM)
Showtime747,

1) You need to hope that I am wrong.  You need to hope that it is not too late..  I don't.  I am prepared.  Malaysia's economy can crash any time and it would not matter to me.  In summary, you need to know when.  I don't.

2) I wish you best of luck.

3) I am reaching a point in time that I no longer care to argue or debate about this.  I had written and posted too many posts on this.  If you are interested, you can read my posts and look at number and come up your own conclusion for the time frame.

4) You cannot buy confidence.  You have to believe it yourself.

Dreamer
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Showtime747 likes to ask other people to predict exact time but he never predict a precise time himself.
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 11:16 AM)
Unker dreamer is 0-100. Me is 50-50. Still haven't achieved yet. I have learnt the lesson of not diversifying fast enough. Should have done it 10 years ago  tongue.gif
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Your children are grown-up and are located overseas. I am hoping for that day too, but I have not achieved it.

If I am in your position,... frankly, I wouldn't think too much about money and diversifying anymore. But I still have to do this because I stlll have responsibilities to fulfill. There is still a long way to go.

There are no lessons to be learnt at your side. You have made it. You are safe,... if need be, you can always fly, or escape to where your children are located. YOu don't have to set aside funds for your eventual escape, if really this country crashes.

rclxms.gif
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 11:29 AM)
currently, us and sg equities incl reits are relatively low priced.

trouble is if u have to liquidate the ones in bursa to buy them, tough...
*
smile.gif I think if you are holding good counters, just leave them be, no need to selloff. But if you are holding weaker instrumnts, then it is right to liquidate and wire the funds out.

I am glad I held FP ASX counters. I can now liquidate at the same Buy Price I had earlier and bring all of my dividends together with me ! For this, I thank this Govern't... in spite of the reduction in purchasing power of the MYR, and its weaker exchange rate.
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 12:36 PM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 22 2015, 10:27 AM)
as someone else already told u , USA develop new fracking tech which did not exist 10 years ago. with this tech, USA has ability to become largest producer of oil even more than saudi.
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U.s is still the largest oil producer in the world.

Idling shale oil production doesn't take long to reactive, oil price is unlikely to sustain over $60.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 22 2015, 01:04 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 11:06 AM)
i thought the options were 20-80, 50-50 and 80-20.

now, u r talking 0-100 or 100-0! laugh.gif

personally, i rather lean towards 80-20 until things clearly are changing.
as we speak, 4.2835.
*
When showtime747 is at tight corner, he likes to brand other either is 0-100 or 100-0.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 22 2015, 01:02 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 22 2015, 12:15 PM)
Your children are grown-up and are located overseas. I am hoping for that day too, but I have not achieved it.

If I am in your position,... frankly, I wouldn't think too much about money and diversifying anymore. But I still have to do this because I stlll have responsibilities to fulfill. There is still a long way to go.

There are no lessons to be learnt at your side. You have made it. You are safe,... if need be, you can always fly, or escape to where your children are located. YOu don't have to set aside funds for your eventual escape, if really this country crashes.

rclxms.gif
*
Those who are trapped without alternative could only hope, wish and dream for the better no matter how unrealistic they are e.g kV property flipper, goldbug.
AVFAN
post Sep 22 2015, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 22 2015, 12:23 PM)
smile.gif I think if you are holding good counters, just leave them be, no need to selloff. But if you are holding weaker instrumnts, then it is right to liquidate and wire the funds out.
*
this isn't always easy to decide, can be very emotional.

how to decide "good" and "weak"? biggrin.gif

say maybank... bluest of blue.
last 1 yr, rm9.50->rm8.50, -10.5%.

who would have sold it then and go buy say, apple inc?
aapl, 1 yr... $100->115; in rm terms, +45%.


as we speak, 4.2905.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 22 2015, 01:50 PM
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 22 2015, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 01:42 PM)
this isn't always easy to decide, can be very emotional.

how to decide "good" and "weak"? biggrin.gif

say maybank... bluest of blue.
last 1 yr, rm9.50->rm8.50, -10.5%.

who would have sold it then and go buy say, apple inc?
aapl, 1 yr... $100->115; in rm terms, +45%.
as we speak, 4.2905.
*
Bot some @ 4.2370 last Fri for trading
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 01:42 PM)
this isn't always easy to decide, can be very emotional.

how to decide "good" and "weak"? biggrin.gif

say maybank... bluest of blue.
last 1 yr, rm9.50->rm8.50, -10.5%.

who would have sold it then and go buy say, apple inc?
aapl, 1 yr... $100->115; in rm terms, +45%.
as we speak, 4.2905.
*
I think each has his own way to decide. For me, if I have other MY stocks besides Maybank, I would sellof those MY stocks first, Maybank is the last to let go. Wire out the funds, or if buying locally, then no need to wire out. However, if one wired out last year, one would have gained A LOT on the forex already.

I wouldn't buy AAPL. Dividnd is not 'disciplined' enough. I would buy US REITs or trusts that give-out dividends monthly or at least, quarterly. I wouldn't settle for any payouts less than quarterly in order to get my money faster.

AAPL has a great history of price app, no doubt, but it also has a history of below-average return of investor value when it comes to management of free cashflow. It's quite a personal thing here,... if a company is not able to manage her cashflow well and either hoards cash with 'preparing for rainy days' remarks or making acquisiionts at high premiums, I am staying away. I am still okay with buybacks when the prices are low enough, but not hoarding cash and not returning value to shareholders.

Ramjade
post Sep 22 2015, 02:20 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 22 2015, 08:08 AM)
Supply is not the only factor that determines the oil price.

Secondly, which oil supplying country would be happy with low oil prices for a long time?
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Lower production to increase price = your country economy affected. (your cash supply decrease)
Increase price of oil = I just buy oil from your neighbour lo.

You tell me how the price going to increase?
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 02:23 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 22 2015, 01:37 PM)
Those who are trapped without alternative could only hope, wish and dream for the better no matter how unrealistic they are e.g kV property flipper, goldbug.
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Well,... not really,... the prop flippers can do a cutloss and selloff to get back whatever returns to go into foreign investments. The goldbug can hold-on to their gold investments and wait, or if they have everything in gold investments, then do a cutloss on half-position only..

LIke I said, it is not too late if the clamp has not been made to movement of funds.
AVFAN
post Sep 22 2015, 02:31 PM

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good read.

if u think more debt to grow gdp will help, think again.

QUOTE
M’sia vulnerable despite no US rate hike
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia, despite the US Federal Reserve Board deciding against an interest rate hike, remains among the most vulnerable economies in the region given its high debt-to-GDP ratio,” said an analyst polled by Bloomberg Business News.
Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asia Economics Research at HSBC, said that Malaysia has already seen among the biggest moves in the currency market with the ringgit reaching a 17-year low against the USD. “That would make Malaysia likely to suffer a tightening of financial conditions which could impact growth over time.”
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...o-us-rate-hike/
TSwil-i-am
post Sep 22 2015, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 02:31 PM)
good read.

if u think more debt to grow gdp will help, think again.
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Biz as usual for Gomen as they don't bother noises out there
AVFAN
post Sep 22 2015, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 22 2015, 03:14 PM)
Biz as usual for Gomen as they don't bother noises out there
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they can shut their eyes and ears but not for long.


those who keep saying "it's the usd strong, not rm weak" or "other currecnies also drop", try these charts.

if still don't get it, can't help.

QUOTE
China could dodge Fed bullet, but Malaysia in the firing line
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...alaysia-suffers

user posted image

user posted image


prody
post Sep 22 2015, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 22 2015, 02:20 PM)
Lower production to increase price = your country economy affected. (your cash supply decrease)
Increase price of oil = I just buy oil from your neighbour lo.

You tell me how the price going to increase?
*
Very simple, prices for commodities always go up and down.

For example, yesterday they were up by 4%.
MGM
post Sep 22 2015, 03:56 PM

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http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...lved/?style=biz

Ringgit to recover once 1MDB issues resolved.

So if by yearend !MDB manages to liquidate all its assets and make a small profit (and for getting rid of d financial nightmare), would that change the tide?

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