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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Showtime747
post Sep 21 2015, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 21 2015, 10:34 AM)
icemanfx,

It will not.  Malaysia had reached peak oil production a few years ago.  So, even if the oil price did not go down, Malaysia will have less oil money.

Dreamer
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Are you predicting oil price will stay in the $40+ range forever ?
Showtime747
post Sep 21 2015, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 21 2015, 10:15 AM)
Nope. From what I have been following, he has migrated to the US. I could be wrong.
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He never gave a definite answer. I have asked a few times. I assume he is in USA now
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 21 2015, 02:35 PM)
personally I think for the long term oil price will never approach 100 usd per barrel like last time.

reason is US has fracking. Saudi is pumping more supply to bankrupt the US fracking companies. below USD 30 fracking will not be profitable and those companies will go out of business. after 1 round of bankruptcies oil price will begin to rise again. but once oil has risen to a certain price (above usd 50) then fracking companies will re-emerge. they can always spin up their production because the tech already exists and is well-known (although production takes months at least to resume).
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YES, after the earlier debates on yes or no for Msia's future, this is the way to go.. So, the balancing act will be between the USD50 and USD60, and probably can never breach USD60 for the long term because US fracking producers will start adding to worldwide supplies when the price can stay above USD50/bbl.

At USD50/bbl, will our govern't be able to cope from Petronas' earnings, and how much will this be able to support the MYR ? We are aware oil price is not the only factor presiing down the MYR.
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 02:55 PM)
Are you predicting oil price will stay in the $40+ range forever ?
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No, I think he meant to say that Petrnas' oilwells are drying-up, and our E&P activities are not able to unearth more productive wells.

For me, this is highly classified. All news out there are just speculative. Even if no E&P agent is able to discover any oil now, they might dig 100m away from that analysed node and discover oil deep down there.
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 21 2015, 02:53 PM)
Iskandar is not an International Zone with tax-free status so not as attractive, thats why somebody is toying with this idea.
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Iskandar has no 'direct tax-free' status, but they are offsetting that by giving freebies at the sides. They're also trying to rope-in as many international entities as possible into the area.

Somehow, what they've been doing is not working as fast as they claimed it should have been.
Ramjade
post Sep 21 2015, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 02:55 PM)
Are you predicting oil price will stay in the $40+ range forever ?
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I fully agrees with this. But I think oil prices will always be below usd30/barrel to suppress shale oil.
AVFAN
post Sep 21 2015, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 02:48 PM)
End of the day, there is no harm to diversify. Glad that we have been doing that before the depreciation. On hindsight, regret never did more  tongue.gif
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diversify, spread yr risk u must!

do more... 20/80, 50/50 or 80/20? laugh.gif
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 03:10 PM)
diversify, spread yr risk u must!

do more... 20/80, 50/50 or 80/20? laugh.gif
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I never counted to such details of ratio diversification. If I ever take the trouble to count, I'll have a headache. I just go by instincts only, when I see 'new' money in my accts, I will put here, or put there, or buy this or buy that. But of course, DD has been done earlier.

If nothing can be bought, then I just leave the money in the acct..
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 21 2015, 03:05 PM)
Iskandar has no 'direct tax-free' status, but they are offsetting that by giving freebies at the sides. They're also trying to rope-in as many international entities as possible into the area.

Somehow, what they've been doing is not working as fast as they claimed it should have been.
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Wrongly replied !

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 21 2015, 03:19 PM
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 21 2015, 03:07 PM)
I fully agrees with this. But I think oil prices will always be below usd30/barrel to suppress shale oil.
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Beg to differ : the Saudis will not be able to finance their national development at this price/bbl. They will try to go as high as they can without letting the US shale oil operators in Texas come into the picture. That would be between USD50 to USD55, conservatively.

cherroy
post Sep 21 2015, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 21 2015, 02:57 PM)
YES, after the earlier debates on yes or no for Msia's future, this is the way to go.. So, the balancing act will be between the USD50 and USD60, and probably can never breach USD60 for the long term because US fracking producers will start adding to worldwide supplies when the price can stay above USD50/bbl.

At USD50/bbl, will our govern't be able to cope from Petronas' earnings, and how much will this be able to support the MYR ? We are aware oil price is not the only factor presiing down the MYR.
*
When RM depreciated 30%, it just indirectly means extra 40% income as earning of oil is always in USD term.
Last time selling at USD50 can get RM150 (at Rm3.00 vs USD), now selling at USD, can get RM212.50 (at RM4.25)

When currency depreciation, inflation follow suit.
Inflation - price of goods rise.
Price of goods rise, more GST collection, as GST is counted in % towards the price.

But this is at the expense of inflation impact, and this is why a country needs to have their own currency instead of a common currency like Euro.
Showtime747
post Sep 21 2015, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 21 2015, 03:02 PM)
No, I think he meant to say that Petrnas' oilwells are drying-up, and our E&P activities are not able to unearth more productive wells.

For me, this is highly classified. All news out there are just speculative. Even if no E&P agent is able to discover any oil now, they might dig 100m away from that analysed node and discover oil deep down there.
*
Looks like he has a lot of insider info tongue.gif

Sometime in 2008, I heard malaysia's oil well will dry up in 2014. My friends all panic tongue.gif
MGM
post Sep 21 2015, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 21 2015, 03:21 PM)
the federal gov really gave Singapore a slap in the face by imposing vehicle per-entry fee. singaporeans are the biggest investors/spenders in Johor.
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No lah the slaps are mostly on Malaysian working in Spore driving Spore cars(mostly Chinese).

This post has been edited by MGM: Sep 21 2015, 03:25 PM
Showtime747
post Sep 21 2015, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 21 2015, 03:07 PM)
I fully agrees with this. But I think oil prices will always be below usd30/barrel to suppress shale oil.
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The only permanent phenomenon in this world is "change"

When oil was >$140, people were saying oil will never come down below $100 ever. Same goes with gold when it reached $1800.

Ups and downs are part of economic cycle. Historical graphs have proven that
Showtime747
post Sep 21 2015, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 03:10 PM)
diversify, spread yr risk u must!

do more... 20/80, 50/50 or 80/20? laugh.gif
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Still very very far from the ratio I wish tongue.gif
cherroy
post Sep 21 2015, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 21 2015, 03:24 PM)
u forgot 2 things:
1. cost maybe also in USD
2. selling price of oil decline from USD 60 to USD 40 in past year.
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1. Buy at USD, sell at USD, no impact.
Last time, sold a barrel of oil at USD 50, earned USD20.
Now even USD vs RM become RM4.25, they still earned USD20.

But the USD20 now become more.

2. Yes, that's why we see Petronas and oil company earning drop, and why commodities related countries currency all dropping.




Showtime747
post Sep 21 2015, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 21 2015, 03:15 PM)
I never counted to such details of ratio diversification. If I ever take the trouble to count, I'll have a headache. I just go by instincts only, when I see 'new' money in my accts, I will put here, or put there, or buy this or buy that. But of course, DD has been done earlier.

If nothing can be bought, then I just leave the money in the acct..
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Roughly lah. You don't need to send the numbers for audit lah tongue.gif
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 21 2015, 03:21 PM)
When RM depreciated 30%, it just indirectly means extra 40% income as earning of oil is always in USD term.
Last time selling at USD50 can get RM150 (at Rm3.00 vs USD), now selling at USD, can get RM212.50 (at RM4.25)

When currency depreciation, inflation follow suit.
Inflation - price of goods rise.
Price of goods rise, more GST collection, as GST is counted in % towards the price.

But this is at the expense of inflation impact, and this is why a country needs to have their own currency instead of a common currency like Euro.
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So, mathematically, we can get more RM after we convert even though the USDs collected back is lesser compared to before. LIke you said , a depreciated currency causes inflation. I'm sure the GOvern't's budget need to be raised more than 40% too in order to achieve what they wanted to do because everything is more expensive now.

More GST collected, however, is this 'more' sufficient to cover the additional budget to be put in ? Not to mention it burdens us again.
MGM
post Sep 21 2015, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 21 2015, 03:07 PM)
I fully agrees with this. But I think oil prices will always be below usd30/barrel to suppress shale oil.
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don't think so, cos if prolong Saudi will be in deep shit too.

http://www.rt.com/business/217723-saudi-ar...cit-oil-prices/
yck1987
post Sep 21 2015, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 03:29 PM)
Still very very far from the ratio I wish  tongue.gif
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Mine was like myr 20:80 sgd including cpf in sinkapoh. Isn't good?

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