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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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AVFAN
post Sep 9 2015, 10:36 AM

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for reference...

QUOTE
The research house highlighted that total debt securities reported net foreign outflows of RM8.9bil in August, bringing down total foreign holdings of Malaysia’s total debt securities to RM197.8bil from RM206.8bil in July.

“The latest foreign holdings were the lowest level since June 2012 (RM187.4bil). MGS became the casualty of outflows,” it said.

In August, foreign investors reduced their holdings of the MGS to RM157.4bil (July: RM165.4bil; June: RM166.8bil) or 46.4% (July: 47.8%; June: 48.5%) of total MGS outstanding in the market.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...less/?style=biz

AVFAN
post Sep 9 2015, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Zanmai0146 @ Sep 9 2015, 10:43 AM)
I pity the Malaysian who earns MYR and sent their kids oversea. Gonna dig money to cover the foreign exchange cost
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what happens is more will hv to be contented with twinning programs, do as little as possible abroad.

so, can expect more private colleges/unis, higher fees - this has been one of the boom industries, will get much bigger.
AVFAN
post Sep 9 2015, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 9 2015, 05:12 PM)
Oct 9 - Budget 2016. probably the most impt speech for our local events this yr..

Sep 11 - Singapore Election, for those invested into SG assets.
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the former, can expect nothing new. same old, same old.
assumption oil price going up to 80
in particular, same billions poured in agri & fisheries projects despite little yield.
incr budget for civil service, bonus; incr br1m.
bigger budget deficit, i.e. incr debt.

the latter... singapore - pap stays.
also nothing new, same old, same old.
more foreign $, stronger sgd.
more msians go there to study/work.
more skilled/qualified migrant workers/investors from everywhere - white, brown, yellow, black...
all that prophesied in last 2 LKY books, grand master's insights and one man's view.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 9 2015, 06:53 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 9 2015, 07:03 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 9 2015, 07:00 PM)
I beg to deffer = I have reasons to believe that with Msia's current state, the PM will rollout some surprises.

Without Mr LKY, the PAP may experience some surprises.
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it's good to differ. let's wait n see. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 9 2015, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 9 2015, 09:18 PM)
AVFAN,... my friend,.. if our PM does not roll out something really good to help us this time, do you think he will still stand up there, shouting unnecessary slogans and unhelpful war-cries just to raise more attention ? What will it further do to his rep ?
What about that economic council that he has set-up that's supposed to roll out something to help this country ? They should be helping him to formulate Budget 2016.
He BETTER have something for us. ... That's what the policy-makers are there for, especially in these times.  ohmy.gif  sad.gif  sweat.gif
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eh, where hv u been all these years? tongue.gif

go back a few budgets, all same, smoke n mirrors, media sing a couple of songs, yell bravo, that's all. biggrin.gif


AVFAN
post Sep 9 2015, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 9 2015, 09:52 PM)
But this is a Crisis Budget,
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what crisis?! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 9 2015, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 9 2015, 10:48 PM)
how about foreign currency account?  hmm.gif
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if u r already having myreits, u can always buy some sgreits.

same broker/bank, same process, piece of cake.

cost just a bit more in brokerage.
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 12:49 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 9 2015, 10:16 PM)
I appreciate your sense of humour, in times in crisis,.... rclxms.gif  biggrin.gif
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no, i mean... do u seriously think putrajaya thinks there is an economic crisis?

u must hv read the news:

"other currencies also falling"
"our fundamentals are strong"
"this is better than 1997-8"
"we can face any challenge"

so, what crisis?
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 10 2015, 07:30 AM)
Say in sep2009, u have rm200k cash n put half in each RM's FD(4% int) n USD's FD(1% int, USD/MYR=3.6). And now after 6 years, u decided to convert the USD to MYR at 4.3, guess what, they give the same returns. I am assuming the USD's FD at 1% or could it be higher/lower due to QE?
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showtime747 already did 10 yr comparison with SGD some weeks ago.

result is same as yr 6 yr USD, i.e. about the same returns whether rm sgd or usd.

but... here is the diff... the big diff is in the last 1 (ONE) year.

the last 1 year where commodities prices fell very low and 1mbd saga (and others) got hot, nothing resolved till now.

so, dreamer is right:
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 10 2015, 09:26 AM)
Is USD 1,000 worth the same amount of RM between the beginning of this year versus now??
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as we deliberate, usd/rm touched 4.3787 this morning.

those who still think "there is no difference", pls think/calculate again.

but if one knows the big diff but decides not to do anything, that's a diff story.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 10 2015, 09:57 AM
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 10:40 AM

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nz cut int rate, brazil rating becones junk...

QUOTE
Ringgit declines to new 1998 low on heightened risk aversion

Published: 10 September 2015 10:12 AM

The ringgit this morning hit 4.3770 a dollar, its lowest level since January 1998. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, September 10, 2015.

The ringgit led losses early in Asia as a renewed decline in stocks and a downgrade in Brazil’s credit rating reignited concerns capital will flow out of emerging markets as the US prepares to raise interest rates.

The currency fell 1.1% to 4.3770 a dollar as of 8.13am in Kuala Lumpur, the lowest level since January 1998, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg.

“The drop in US equities, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and cutting Brazil’s rating to junk should push emerging markets down,” said Masashi Murata, vice president at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co in Tokyo. “All Asian currencies are likely to drop with risk-off trading.” – Bloomberg, September 10, 2015.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.KoulMdmB.dpuf

AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 12:40 PM

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midf, a gomen agency sees rm strengthening.

QUOTE
MIDF sees ringgit strengthening towards 4.00 against USD in near-term

By Ahmad Naqib Idris / theedgemarkets.com  | September 10, 2015 : 12:02 PM MYT 

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 10): MIDF Research expects the ringgit to strengthen towards between 4.00 and 4.20 levels against the US dollar within the next few months, as the ringgit is showing clear signs of tapering, following its recent plunge.

In a note today, MIDF said the ringgit situation was turning for the better towards the end of August, based on the negative spread between the USD/MYR non-deliverable forward (NDF) rate and onshore interbank forward rate seen during the month.

“It is notable that the spread slumped to more than -200 pips at its recent trough, the lowest level since March this year. We believe the prevailing downswing is related to, among others, the changing market perceptions over the timing and pace of US Fed’s future monetary actions,” said the research house.

It explained that the narrowing of the offshore-onshore spread signals a transitory reversal of the ringgit’s performance against the greenback.

“On this score, we may see the ringgit strengthening against US dollar towards between 4.20 and 4.00 levels within the next few months,” it said.

The research house added that the strengthening of the ringgit will have a positive impact on the equity market and maintained its year-end baseline target of 1,650 points, with upper and lower range of 1,700 and 1,600 points respectively.

MIDF noted that the pressure on the ringgit was building up since the fourth quarter of 2014, with the spread between NDF and onshore interbank forward rates continued to rise and peaked in March 2015, and subsequently tapered down over the following two months.

The pressure returned strongly in June to August, it said, with the rates spread expanding up to almost 1,000 pips in mid-August, with the ringgit breaching 3.80 in early July and 4.00 near mid-August, the two important psychological levels.

At 10.45am today, the ringgit weakened to 4.3475 against the US dollar, according to Bloomberg data.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/m...t-usd-near-term
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(BboyDora @ Sep 10 2015, 05:12 PM)
Eventhough there is a blast in Thailand, their economy still strong compare to MY.

Malaysia incidents is worse than Thailand blast...(football flare , 1 Em Dee Bi , 2.6 billion rice ...etc etc)
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Quite true.

Global investors judge everyone, nobody is special.

Topside billions sonlgap scandals and more importantly the high tolerance and even support displayed is not taken lightly outside.

Brazil's national oil co. Petrobras billions scandal caused it to be rated junk today.
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 10 2015, 09:21 PM)
Which Country Will Devalue Their Currency Next? Libya, Equatorial Guinea and Oman
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...guinea-and-oman

Surprisingly MYR deem neutral...
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this is an informative article about currencies oil exporting countries at this time.

perhaps.... can say:

.. msia with "strong fundamentals" is right in the center.
.. devalued russian ruble and to a lesser extent, vietnamese dong having devalued right after chinese rmb, are now stronger.
.. brunei is vulnerable but currency is pegged to sgd, will be interesting to watch.
.. msia's debt/gdp is on par with or worse than many african countries.

QUOTE
user posted image

user posted image


still, all commodity economies will not have it easy for a long time to come going by this article:
QUOTE
EMs: Brace for long haul; it's going to be tough
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/10/ems-brace-f...o-be-tough.html


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 10 2015, 10:03 PM
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:21 PM)
I think over the years, many surprises hit us. Who predicted the oil price caused havoc last year ? I am sure there will be continued surprises unfolding in the next few months. Just when we thought US$ will continue its uptrend, suddenly a surprise will hit us and the tide changes 180 degree. Never know. Too many such surprises we encountered in the past
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i have no idea what will change the tide but can see 2 threats coming - el nino-water supply shortage; illegal immigrants w/o jobs.


AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM)
However, tis Ppl fail to realize tat USD/MYR could make a u turn n start to appreciates
Wat tis Ppl gonna do when MYR runs wild on USD?
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oh, i think they know.

what will reverse the trend will not be oil or cpo rebounding hard or china flies again.

it will be m wins, n leaves. this one is a matter of weeks or months, not years, imo.
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 10 2015, 10:51 PM)
Could b matter of days  brows.gif
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u r definitely underestimating him. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Sep 10 2015, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:35 PM)
Too many. Nobody knows. Everything is possible.  tongue.gif
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futile to worry about things like income tax, gst, gomen debt, buying new jets or ships - that, we can do nothing.

just manage the little savings we got, eat the food we like. laugh.gif

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 10 2015, 10:41 PM)
That's right. I always wonder how high the US$ can go to a point it won't hurt its economy. There must be a limit. If not, their exports will suffer. And unemployment will increase.

If they raise interest now, it will hurt their export further.

Interesting to see how far the USA is willing to test their limit.
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it's not that they want raise rates. it becos after almost a decade of near zero rates, their pension plans and insurance sector will soon go into meltdown if still no action. that will bring another lehman brothers, bad for the globe too.
AVFAN
post Sep 11 2015, 06:13 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 11 2015, 06:08 PM)
BNM maintain OPR at 3.25%
Will MYR continue to drop?
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think so.

usd weak today.

watch next week as fed sep 16-17 meeting nears...
AVFAN
post Sep 12 2015, 01:25 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 11 2015, 10:48 PM)
Any possibility for PAP to increase national vote share from 60% previously?
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at this time, 71%, up 11% from last ge.
http://graphics.straitstimes.com/STI/STIME...ults/index.html
AVFAN
post Sep 12 2015, 06:59 PM

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usd/myr 4.30. then... 4.5, 4.7, 5.0 or 4.0, 3.8, 3.5?

perhaps can look at other battered currencies of comparable nations - emerging market, commodities based, high corruption, high debt.

QUOTE
Some countries facing possible rating cuts and 'junk' status
As well as those now teetering on the investment grade/junk cusp, China, Chile, Malaysia, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Israel, Saudi Arabia and much of the Middle East are also priced for rating cuts according to the data.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...cuts/?style=biz

from this list, some currencies are either too different or too strong to compare.

but look at south africa and mexico. and brazil, turkey.

against usd:

brazil -65%
turkey -37%
south africa -35%
mexico -27%

msia - 35%

brazilian real due to national oil company corruption scandal is now rated junk by global agencies, so it is among the worst in the world while rm is worst in asia pacific.

mexico and south africa like msia are at risk for rating downgrade.

of course, there are many other factors. question is which ones will really help the rm and which ones can drive it further down?

i would think if a rating downgrade comes, rm will go to 4.50 if everything else remain unchanged.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 12 2015, 07:01 PM

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