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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 15 2015, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 14 2015, 09:25 PM)

Do not put all your eggs into ONE basket.

Dreamer
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Question, are u married?
SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 18 2015, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 18 2015, 03:40 PM)
Hi MGM,.. about the chart, if you say that the level is the same between today and three years ago, then I would say that dividend has not been factored in.

For the REITs in my portfolio, I can tell for certain that the yield has been, on the average, at least 4% per year for the last THREE years, using your frame of time reference. I checked my updated spreadsheet a moment ago, the yield is at 7.98%.

My unrealized capital gain is now at 38%. Let's take a quarter of that, hence at 9.5%, since we are going to use the last three years as the time reference.

So, totalling up the above : 4% + 9.5% = 13% gain.

Had you invested SGD100K into SGREITs three years ago, then : SGD100K + 13% gain = SGD113000 sitting in Singapore now.

If you liquidate and realize your profits by selling-off everything and converting back into the RM, bringing back to Msia to invest more into the ASX, you would have : SGD113000 x 2.98 (conservative exchange rate) = MYR336740 dropping into your bank account.

You would have profited by : MYR336740 - MYR250000 = MYR86740.[SIZE=7]

I have taken very, very conservative figures in my calculation. The profit figure derived above should be higher !

The snag here is : the above calculation is based on my portfolio of REITs and some Dividend Stocks. Not across the board of REITs.
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taxation, transfer fees, etc.. maybe 79k profit.. still decent over 2 years. question is.. u have RM250k lying around?
SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 19 2015, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 19 2015, 08:35 PM)
Folks,

1) I would assume that you never heard of or experienced such a thing as Global Recession.

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I dont think anyone has experienced such a thing before...


yes, our economy as is everyones economy is linked.. If you study the currency graphs, you'll notice that every single government on planet earth is printing huge amounts of currency to pay off their debts.. utter madness and stupidity..

I've been reading alot and studying these issues. My conclusion is, three things will surely happen before the end of this decade.

1. Massive contraction of money supply. This has already begun.
2. Government debts will be declared as insolvent or interest as un-payable.
3. World-wide collapse of fiat currency and financial systems.

Now, this is not all doom and gloom scenario. In-fact, I see huge opportunity for all of us to become rich and wealthy. There will be lots of cheap and very good businesses to invest in, new ideas will be conceived, and people will benefit largely from having a less top heavy world where only the rich people survive..

But this interesting opportunity will not arise until our stupid governments stop pumping their useless fiat currency backed by worthless government bonds to out-spend debt.. It's ridiculous.. we are all effectively working for the government. A slave..

The writing is on the bloody wall.. our monetary system is due to collapse.. and that is a wonderful thing.. so please governments.. let it happen already so the world can rebuild and move on. Instead of pumping more of your useless money exacerbating the impending crash... the harder they rise, the harder they'll fall.

This post has been edited by the99percent1: Sep 19 2015, 09:42 PM
SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 20 2015, 01:24 AM

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QUOTE(pfesto @ Sep 20 2015, 12:46 AM)
So, what will happen then if #3 does occur?
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A new monetary system will replace fiat currency..

this is completely normal and totally expected.. every 30 years, a new monetary system is introduced.
Gold Exchange Standard, Brenton Woods and Fiat money.

we are at the point of change.

If you noticed, a World War is usually expected.. However, there won't be World War 3. This is because our world will forever be in a perpetual state of war and instability. Today, the war in Middle East is pretty much a world war in terms of money spent and people killed.

Also, the blowback is causing huge issues. Such as mass refugees fleeing to Europe. Like parasites, the refugees will eat up their adopted states welfare fund and burden the tax system.. Also, the muslims will bring along their religion to progressive locations such as Sweden and Germany. This will be a bad thing. They will destroy their adopted states economy and culture. The irony is, Germany and Sweden helped to destroy the middle east. So in payback, they get the muslim refugees who will destroy their economy..

You see, everything in the world is inter-connected. For instance, Chinas economy slump means Australia will suffer alot (40% australian exports go to China). I expect the Australian housing bubble to burst.. Oil drop, Russian ruble collapses. Our Ringgit suffered tremendously because of falling commodity prices..

Heck, even mighty Singapore will suffer soon with their aging population of Baby Boomers. They simply don't have enough young workers to replace them and eventually, their economy will collapse or the foreign talent import will completely change what it means to be Singaporean..

This post has been edited by the99percent1: Sep 20 2015, 01:53 AM
SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 20 2015, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 20 2015, 06:54 AM)
bTW AUD, sgd & usd INVESTMENT, which will be a better choice?
In 5 years time my kid will most likely go to one of these countries for tertiary education and spend 500k, although I ask him to aim for scholarship. Oz is very dependent on Commodities, Spore on Asean, CHina n US economies and US is one of the biggest debtor in the world. Would their currencies still be as strong as now in 5 years time, and appreciated another 35% against MYR.

The above post suggested OZ and Spore will be in trouble too, so left with US only?

BTW OT, is it wise to entice a child to study hard to get a scholarship so that 500k will go into his pocket? tongue.gif  sign0006.gif
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Don't go to uni..

Tell your son to come out and work.. or get a vocational degree such as technician, electrician or something that pays you well whilst you study.

In no way will he be able to repay you his study loan.

And what's the point of spending 500k only to come out and work for 1.5k salary.. better to take the 500k and start a business straight away..



SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 20 2015, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 20 2015, 10:01 AM)
May be this advice suits your children well but definately not mine, who is already under scholarship in a private school. It will not be a loan to him but a gift. BTW I know my child better than you.
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fair enough.. just make sure you advise him well.

His generation will enter the job force with much lesser work going around. He needs to prepare for it well in advance..


SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 20 2015, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 20 2015, 10:58 AM)
If that is the case earthlings should drastically reduce procreation.
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nope.. your Son is already born, thus for him to be gainfully employed, more earthlings need to be drastically killed off..

This coupled with jobs being replaced by automation. Your kid really doesn't stand a chance if he goes the traditional of get a degree and then climb the career path.

As I've mentioned, currently, the global economy is largely driven by demographics.

The millennials (1980s - 2000s) are really lost and hopeless.. most have out-dated skills and useless degrees.. In turn, they enter the workforce just drifting aimlessly. Too many people ahead of them. On average, they will have no clear cut path of getting a good paying job.. so low pay, few jobs, long and hard working hours, high tax, inflation and large debts, they will be crippled for decades, if not for life..

Gen Xs are just waiting for Baby Boomers to retire. They too, are just hanging on waiting for those top positions to finally open up for them. By that time, they will be 50 or 60 years old.. with even less assets, savings and income than the Baby Boomers..

Baby Boomers have no savings, thus will have to work until they die..

So, as you can see if you want your son to pursuit the traditional role he will join the cue.. right at the bottom of all bottoms. Are you sure you want your son to go down this route?

There is no clear cut path. Going without a degree is a huge risk. But as, with investing, you need to take risk.. being gainfully employed is to be a wage slave.. high paying jobs usually comes with added stress, longer working hours, high tax and high upkeep.. You may earn 150k usd a year.. which is unlikely starting off, but 100k already goes to upkeep and paying off debt, 50k for living. Zero for savings. What kind of life have we left for our children?

Save that money. Teach him how to invest. Start an online business or multiple businesses.. You do not need a degree or go into huge debts for this.

Scholarships are bullshit too.. Most tie you down on low paying salary for many years.

Think twice before accepting a scholarship.. there is no free lunch.

This post has been edited by the99percent1: Sep 20 2015, 12:34 PM
SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 20 2015, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 20 2015, 12:37 PM)
Wouldn't you think working in a salaried job is not all abt money only ? It is also abt a lifestyle, and letting the child experience what it is like out there, rather than just coming home after graduating and taking over the family investments ?
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... So you want your son or daughter to be exploited by companies? The only meaningful work is to do what you enjoy and to work for yourself, not as a slave for a company or the economy for that matter..

As for currencies. All currencies are either pegged or tied to USD. So it really doesn't matter which currency you invest in.

USD is collapsing soon. Why do you think the fed keep on delaying the interest rate hike? Because they know once they do that, everyone will stop buying US exports because their dollar is worthless and over-valued. An interest rate hike will cause the USD to rise, and that is the beginning of the end of the US dollar standard.

So which currency will replace the dollar? hahaha.. None. China doesn't want to be the next standard.. they have artificially kept the Yuan low for decades. The Euro? no-one has confidence in it especially after Greece. How can you trust that other nations wont come close to defaulting..
Nikkei japan has been a dump and stagnation for decades, simply because they refuse to deflate.

So as you see, there is no other alternative than to let it all collapse and rebuild from the ground up again. History always repeats itself. Humans never learn from the mistakes of the past. Especially when it comes to currency.. They are all one the same.

The fiat monetary system is about to end...

This post has been edited by the99percent1: Sep 20 2015, 12:57 PM
SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 20 2015, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 20 2015, 01:03 PM)
I don't quite agree with your statement. The world needs trade. And I am sure US will go to great extend to defend the USD. Look at last time when currency was peg against gold reserves. Through some manipulation, the world is using usd.

There's always GBP, CHF and heck even bitcoins. Bitcoins is kind of scary for world's bank cause it is a digital curreny no one control. The value is solely depended on the market
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World needs trade.. yes, but USD rise will cause all nations in debt to be more costly.. Which is the larger issue at play here and ironically, it will affect global trade.

Everyone will feel the pinch of USD rise. Many countries will just outright refuse or even ban USD..

You think Malaysia wont do the same? Wait till 4.5 usd by end of the year and see what our incompetent Government will do.. probably nothing, which means you will feel the pinch..

Long term wise, next 3 - 4 years, best is to invest in currencies of countries with low national debt and good GDP to capita income ratio.

SGD and HKD springs to mind..

But then you need to dig deeper. SG will have their own problems in next 3-5 years as the Baby Boomers retire or die off. So don't expect their economy to do well either. It wont drop, at best, they will stagnate with little growth.

HK, im not so sure as I don't research there. From what I see, their economy is similar to SG, so no gains there either.




SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 20 2015, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 20 2015, 01:32 PM)
Baby boomers in sg may be ageing, this is a reason sg is accepting more young migrants from mys, chn, Idn and Ind to maintain the momentum.

Sg is probably the only country that the west could rely on, hence MNC, banks, etc will continue to have their regional HQ there.

With current political party in power, more Malaysian will keep their saving in sg like indon during Suharto era. Myr Forex rate with SGD will continued to slide until there is a change of gomen.
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influx of migrants have problems too.. singapore will lose their identity. Also, businesses and real estate will collapse as less spending within singapore as migrants save to send their money overseas. The local economy suffers too...


SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 21 2015, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 21 2015, 03:07 PM)
I fully agrees with this. But I think oil prices will always be below usd30/barrel to suppress shale oil.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ec-calls-for-80

are you prepared to eat your own words?

ps, what ever I have mentioned in the past, I'm still backing it.. long term, you should prepare for a new monetary system.
SUSthe99percent1
post Sep 22 2015, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Sep 21 2015, 11:17 PM)
Per topic thread, it suppose to discuss Forex  USD / MYR ..

When strong greenback, many ppls good in highlite it and make many assumption of higher rate..
But now, when green back is weak, many ppls "talk other matter" .  doh.gif
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Because, idiot.. if you haven't realised, trade, politics and economy happens to affect the currency..

There are many more factors..

If we are to discuss about purely forex, all you'll see in here is up or down.. no understanding or reasoning.. what a boring and pointless discussion.

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