First time buyer.

+1 & cash rich individuals

More people can afford to buy and disposable income will increase as pay less in loan installment.

Yes.

As mentioned before, Malaysia has been in a bubble for some time. But being in a bubble isnt always bad. The only problem is when the bubble bursts. Countries can be in bubbles for a long time and some without even bursting. Some come out of a bubble even without bursting. But Bank Negara is not going to allow the bubble to burst in Malaysia. Hence all these measures to cool down the property market before that happens.

So what im quite sure will happen is a stagnation and a price drop in some areas experiencing a glut in condos or condos sold at unreasonable prices by greedy developers in new growth areas. But prime and mature areas will keep rising or worse case scenario, stagnate for a while before resuming the uptrend. But i worry about new launches which are being sold to inexperienced investors buying with the herd mentality.

Either way, this discussion is similar to:
https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=3100773

The reason i created that thread was to:

1) Give all of us a platform to discuss openly and maturedly (so far so good)
2) Provide a thread which can be referenced in future to see if the 4 signs were actually correct for Malaysia

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Jan 15 2014, 10:07 AM

Actually, while rental yield and ratio of price to household income are good indicators, a more accurate bubble indicator will be total property sales over gdp. Rental yield gives viability of prop investment, price to household income shows affordability, and sales over gdp shows how hot the market is. Do it for the past record until now, one can tell an accurate view of market.

one thing i draw from the poll stats is there are far more now holding and trying to sell than those uninvested and/or wanting and able to to buy.

a poll asking if people are "looking to buy", "just holding", "only selling" or "no plans to buy" will tell a bit more and if responses are honest enough, we'll see the same result.

at this time, call it bubble or not, burst or no burst, i am convinced the no. of willing and able to buy at current prices, i.e. real demand has dropped and is still going down. if one sieves out the noises and read the rest of news, reports and comments, that can only be the truth.

the question is what happens next - will a prolonged slump in real demand force overall prices to drop by 5, 10, 20% in the near horizon? i personally think so, over the next 3-4 years. more so when "no leadership-let peripherals run amok" scenario is now driving all politics and economy at even national level. how good can things get?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 15 2014, 10:27 AM

+1 agree with your point

Agree with you.
The poll itself already bias. With 3 options recognising there is a bubble, 1 option no bubble, another 1 no comments.

Some of these "players" have been waited since 2008.
And invest nothing. Some of them are my family friends.

Local property market is not the only investment option available, they may have invested in other market as may have better return and less exposure to flip-flop policy changes.

some of them keep in FD as an option.
But I agree with you, our government is good in flip flop policies, i.e. RPGT rate changed 4 times in the last 5 years.

Is my eye blur ? I thought I saw 2 options for bubble, 2 option for no bubble ?

The 3rd option is not a definite No
Long way to go means a matter of time.
My interpretation

Where to put your money, if not property...

1. Stock mkt? I believe there is a bigger bubble in the stock mkt...indexes are at record high...the truth is that it is a sophisticated mkt which most of us do not understand, where insiders and large institutional investors are always ahead of us, where you can buy at the wrong time and lose heavily. Just look at the recent penny stock fiasco in S'pore where investors are losing their pants and some really die standing...ending up with nothing...zero..further playing the mkt takes time, you got to be monitoring the mkt every minutes when mkt open.

2. Invest in business? Potentially, the most profitable way, but most new companies fail, at least 50%, and the risk of your investment is enormous.

3. Gold? The biggest shocker of 2013 was the crash in gold prices. people are still dumping gold, some said it will have further correction...below USD1,000 by year end. Some people who had invested in gold the past years now looked like zombies...or more like"hum yee" salted fish..cry also no tears

4. FD? Low investment returns and offer poor protection against inflation.

5. Forex? Very much based on speculation, very technical and super volatile...not for those with weak heart.

Why not property then? Property has a proven long history as an asset that delivers consistently high returns over the medium to long term. Property provides a secure form of protection against inflation and has proven to be less risky than other investment strategies such as buying and selling shares. Property investment also provides effective avenues to minimise the level of tax payable. Property is a tangible asset that you can see, feel, control and add value to. Banks are often happy to lend against property up to 80% of its value, or higher depending upon your individual circumstances. Property will always be in demand, whether it be to rent or to purchase, ensuring a consistent ever increasing return on your investment.

👍👍👍

I agree with most of the things you said, especially on equities investments. As you said, there are insiders and institutional investors who can outperform the market due to various reasons. So there is another option.. become part of these big fishes. Engage professional investment services. Of course, you need to find a good ones, and commit a large amount of fund. But from experience, some can give you 16-20% return per annum. No guarantee, of coz, but that's their rice bowl and they definitely can do better than retail investors.

Everyone are waiting for it to burst, so that they can go in and " chap sei kai " and gradually the demands goes up again.

It will be no difference, those who being waiting the properties burst and 'Chap Sei Kai' will always in waiting. Coz it will be in 2 situation,
1. When the bubble has burst they will also said WAIT, the price will down further it still not reach the lowest price.
2. or else, when the bubble burst they wanna buy, but cant get finance because not banker willing to give support due high risk banker worry it will be bad debt.

haha yeah man..

Successful investor will not likely come into these discussions cheering for bubble. In the end of the day, what are they trying to achieve and what do they gain if really crash. Smart people already gearing up on their future plans liao, not stucking up themselves in this forum shouting for bubble. Some pro-bubblers were even sour grape 5 years ago who fought for the same thing until now hahaha

U R making an Ass out of U & Me by assume..lol got U

There R those who have property for own & family stays & no intention to sell it, already sold off their previous investment/flipping unitbought & sold earlier with good profit, now looking for more, but current price r over inflated & not much profit can be made from it, so now waiting fot the market declination to grab some good deals so that able to make better margin out of it (Just like stock market).

So next time use logic thinking rather than ASSUMING people just wanna get orgarsm by saying "I told u so".