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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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icemanfx
post Jan 14 2014, 08:24 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jan 14 2014, 07:24 PM)
for those who can afford please buy now or pay higher cost in the future. wink.gif
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Buying for future is a bubble, be it property or commodity.
icemanfx
post Jan 14 2014, 08:47 PM

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QUOTE(restful increase @ Jan 14 2014, 08:29 PM)
Yes i am bullish on projects which r located beside mrt or lrt. Boom or bust, demand will b thr for rental. Better still if got mrt n big shopping mall together like tropicana garden and sunway velocity.
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As if no more development will be allowed near to lrt or mrt stations.
icemanfx
post Jan 14 2014, 10:50 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jan 14 2014, 10:36 PM)
what we do now will change the future. Buy for your children  brows.gif MYR is shrinking
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How many gen y like to live in gen x built condo, apartment or house?

Typical unfounded reason given by flippers and re agents to bbb. Fair bet you are a flipper holding a number of units.

Buying Myr assets won't help if myr depreciate. To counter myr depreciation, it make more sense to invest in usd, sgd, euro and rmb assets.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 14 2014, 10:56 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 15 2014, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jan 15 2014, 09:00 AM)
assuming there's a bubble, and properties price plunge.
may i ask who will be the biggest benefactor?

the wisher for huge property price declination, may i ask what is in store for you guys/girls?
of course besides the eagerly awaited "I told you so!" quote, what else is in store.
care to enlighten me please?

thanks.
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More people can afford to buy and disposable income will increase as pay less in loan installment.

icemanfx
post Jan 15 2014, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 15 2014, 10:53 AM)
Some of these "players" have been waited since 2008.
And invest nothing. Some of them are my family friends.
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Local property market is not the only investment option available, they may have invested in other market as may have better return and less exposure to flip-flop policy changes.

icemanfx
post Jan 15 2014, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(godlikexioo @ Jan 15 2014, 04:46 PM)
It will be no difference, those who being waiting the properties burst and 'Chap Sei Kai' will always in waiting. Coz it will be in 2 situation,
1. When the bubble has burst they will also said WAIT, the price will down further it still not reach the lowest price.
2. or else, when the bubble burst they wanna buy, but cant get finance because not banker willing to give support due high risk banker worry it will be bad debt.
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Unlike stock or commodities, property is illiquid, it may take 3 to 5 years for price to bottom. In the mean time, better to invest in overseas.

As long as one doesn't have bad record, have mean to repay loan and can pay deposit, banks will certainly lend.
icemanfx
post Jan 16 2014, 07:30 AM

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QUOTE(InF.anime @ Jan 16 2014, 12:51 AM)
Banks will let the bubble burst?
Imagine people now are buying at RM700-1000+/sqft.. all money are comes from banks. If price really floored, all buyers will default their loan. Bank will be the next to die after the property owners. That time Malaysia might need borrow from IMF like Korean last time and many banks need to restructure or merge lol. You think those bank will let this happen?
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It is not banks duty or responsibility to support price. When price floored, banks can ask borroweres to top up the difference, recall the loan or auction off if is non performing.
icemanfx
post Jan 16 2014, 09:26 AM

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QUOTE(zephyrus9999 @ Jan 16 2014, 08:55 AM)
We only need 1 bank in msia to crash, then the bubble will pop. everything turns tumbling down.

In these dark times, defaulters will be in number. More properties auctioned but no takers. If recall tons of business loans, we can imagine what happens to gomen income. Borrowers will not even have kangkungs to top up in the first place.

And thr goes msia economy derails.. And what makes you think our BNM/gomen let this to happen.

Pop unlikely. Reduced demand and fairly constant supply due overpopulation possible.
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A well managed bank will have up to 25% of their loan portfolio in housing loan. In the worst case scenario, 50% of housing loan are underwatered by 30%, will dent the bank assets (25% x 50% x 30%) by 4% only, is well within manageable limits.

BNM and banks first duty is to ensure the integrity of the banking system, borrowers hardship is only a collateral damage in dark time.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 16 2014, 10:23 AM
icemanfx
post Jan 16 2014, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(aberdeen @ Jan 16 2014, 10:53 AM)

One of the biggest mistake for investors is waiting too long to start investing in property, whether for own stay or as investment.
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Price appreciate or depreciate doesn't matter to own stay, can buy anytime as long as within his affordability.

The biggest mistake made by most property investors are bought at peak, over geared and don't have positive cash flow to sustain through bad time.

icemanfx
post Jan 16 2014, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(cooleq @ Jan 16 2014, 01:58 PM)
Of course much more expensive bro. Bigger build up mean quantity of material is more and it's reflex to the total cost. Bigger land area also reflex to the cost in acquire the land. Sum others factor to consider like location wise and the direction of the unit.
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If phase 2 is bigger land area, higher quality materials, etc, isn't comparing with phase 1 is like orange to apple?

icemanfx
post Jan 17 2014, 02:49 AM

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QUOTE(SilverSpoon @ Jan 17 2014, 01:04 AM)
Singapore is more land scare than kv, any drop in price will bound back in the future. Get ready to invest in sg?


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 17 2014, 02:59 AM
icemanfx
post Jan 17 2014, 08:54 AM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jan 17 2014, 07:42 AM)
Like !

But the DDD camp believes that all UUU campers are all flippers with extremely poor credit rating, borrowing 100% loan and living up to their nose with just 0.5% interest rise will make them jump from 14th floor  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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If history to repeat, about half of numbers sold were bought by flippers and most flippers maximized their borrowing/potential profit especially those who have profited early.

The perfect storm will come when interest rate rise is coincide with vp of numerous dibs projects from 2015, lower loan to value and conservative valuation by QS.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 17 2014, 10:01 AM
icemanfx
post Jan 17 2014, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 17 2014, 11:31 AM)
don't underestimate those who really have holding power....i think it is easily more than you think there is...
so it may not necessarily be fire sales happening...

if you check the market postings on properties for sale, the price more or less still up there....
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Most if not all sellers asking price won't be lower than their peers or "market price". In many npl, foreclosure cases, borrowers/sellers were still insist on "market price" even came under auction. Hence, price stagnation doesn't mean sellers have holding power.

QUOTE(lamode @ Jan 17 2014, 11:41 AM)
a number of them already re-financed their current property(ties) and the cash is sitting at bank, not only they can hold for years, but can whack if got fire sales.
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This is leverage by any mean and those cash doesn't belong to them. If they invest further with more borrowing, in the event of down turn, it is almost certain they will be the first group to enter foreclosure.

icemanfx
post Jan 17 2014, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(brother love @ Jan 17 2014, 04:26 PM)
Actually flippers r not tat bad...me used to tink them as greedy speculators...but u know, they helped generate jobs for the developers, give business to bankers but hold all the risk during the construction stages ( especially in the event of a market crash) i tink the profit they made justifies the contrbution they made to the economy...and u know wat, most of them r decision makers, most who missed out didnt dare to buy and overanalysed...tats my opinion frum my obervations...not all speculators or flippers r filthy rich, they took a lot of risk..imagine taking Rm500 k to rm-800k bank loan just to make Rm 100k profit, and market conditions and rules chg all the time ( rpgt 30%)...most people who complains were the one who missed out be oz they slow to make decisions or keep waiting and waiting and waiting
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This is no difference from betting in casino with borrowed money while depriving other people from affordable housing.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 17 2014, 04:35 PM
icemanfx
post Jan 17 2014, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 17 2014, 04:35 PM)
How about borrow money from the bank to start a business?
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Business create employment, add value to the society and economy but not speculation.

icemanfx
post Jan 17 2014, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 17 2014, 04:36 PM)
好佬怕恶佬,恶佬怕烂佬,烂佬怕癫佬,癫佬怕泼妇,泼妇怕穷鬼

if you can read Chinese... tongue.gif
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山水有相逢,pray that you will not meet repoman.


icemanfx
post Jan 17 2014, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 17 2014, 04:40 PM)
So you are talking about morality instead of reality, aren't you?  hmm.gif
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Nope, purely on economic.

icemanfx
post Jan 18 2014, 06:21 AM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 17 2014, 11:23 PM)
I'm either UUU nor DDD camp. Am not concern whether bubble burst in 2014 or not! Since no one has ctr ovr it, why waste time n energ to worry/guess sky will fall or not? (Btw, I enjoy reading responses frm various forumers!)

Is it the flipper forumers here caused the property up in local market? I don't think so, instead they r many invisible hands in the market frm all directions (locally n overseas) with tons of CA$H$ n easy access to decision maker$, who can easily fund the projects, or/and buy en-blocks. When so called bubble burst, they still profitable by selling u with 30% disc. Hard to believe! then do more research....
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If one can anticipate the sky will fall, at least can find a shelter.

Believe these invisible hands took advantages of zero rpgt to minimize tax, legalized cash and caused initial wave of "price increased". Like retailers in stock and commodities market, most flippers entered the market while these invisible hands are exiting.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 18 2014, 06:37 AM
icemanfx
post Jan 18 2014, 07:33 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 18 2014, 07:06 AM)
Fact or guess??? Btw, v call those ppl swing traders la. icon_rolleyes.gif
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Ask ck15
icemanfx
post Jan 18 2014, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 18 2014, 11:31 AM)
Thanks. Trying to link it to property "trading"... some silimarity but holding period is far longer..... and got lots of "hidden processes"... can bypas banking system and rpgt some more....  biggrin.gif
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Syndicates, like how they goreng stock market previously.


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