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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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cybermaster98
post Jan 15 2014, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jan 14 2014, 05:52 PM)
An unprecedented amount of sales dropout in almost all new launches, some quite bad (dowan mentioned which project but is discussed here in LYN also). Alot of people are selling in subsale now. Some giving generous discounts.

On the other hand, several new launches will be coming onstream gradually, at a much slower pace. Developers expect people will "cool down" from the cooling measures as we are still pretty much at the preliminary stage of "Inflation Uprising" (you guys probably know what is going up again).

Technically, the Malaysian bubble is more akin to a slowdown.
Yes.

As mentioned before, Malaysia has been in a bubble for some time. But being in a bubble isnt always bad. The only problem is when the bubble bursts. Countries can be in bubbles for a long time and some without even bursting. Some come out of a bubble even without bursting. But Bank Negara is not going to allow the bubble to burst in Malaysia. Hence all these measures to cool down the property market before that happens.

So what im quite sure will happen is a stagnation and a price drop in some areas experiencing a glut in condos or condos sold at unreasonable prices by greedy developers in new growth areas. But prime and mature areas will keep rising or worse case scenario, stagnate for a while before resuming the uptrend. But i worry about new launches which are being sold to inexperienced investors buying with the herd mentality.

Either way, this discussion is similar to:
https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=3100773

The reason i created that thread was to:

1) Give all of us a platform to discuss openly and maturedly (so far so good)
2) Provide a thread which can be referenced in future to see if the 4 signs were actually correct for Malaysia

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Jan 15 2014, 10:07 AM
cybermaster98
post Jan 19 2014, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 14 2014, 05:18 PM)
the only bear (DDD) thread in this forum.

4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market (cybermaster98)
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3031756

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We had a good thread which had good factual discussions but most importantly, for once we had something we could reference against for the future and see if the 4 signs were actually prove to be true. And now because of the emergence of this thread, my other thread was blocked and that reference is now gone. Thats the problem with LYN. Everybody keeps creating new threads for the same damn topic and there is no proper reference for the future especially in discussions about property pricing and whether the signs that we're seeing now are truly reflective of an upcoming property slump. But now its lost and all we have is just a poll which means almost nothing because half the voters are property agents.

My first thread:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3031756

Version 2 which was closed:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3100773

Really disappointing because property prices is something which has significant impact on most of us here investors or speculators alike.
cybermaster98
post Jan 20 2014, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 19 2014, 11:57 PM)
haiyo ya lorr.. the one with lots of arguments one shut down.. but nevertheless.. i think most of us got the message..
maybe our thread got "special attention liao" very difficult...actually i no need to see the rules i know di.. the discretion will be absolutely on their hands.. we cant contest..
Its not about arguments and its not about getting a message across. It was meant to be a REFERENCE POINT. Its not a competition and i dont really care who starts any thread. But after so long we finally had a thread which has specific signs of a property slump which we could reference in the future to see if it was true or otherwise. And now because of this typical poll type thread (which we have had hundreds in the past), we will lose that point of reference. This thread is just another one of those DDD or UUU thread we have seen. Nothing differerent. Polls are also not reflective of the reality of whats happening (as we all know). Sadly we have now lost a good reference.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Jan 20 2014, 12:03 AM
cybermaster98
post Jan 20 2014, 12:31 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 20 2014, 12:22 AM)
I did reference your thread in the first post. This thread was open right after your 4 signs was closed as a continuation to the current property market discussion. Poll is just an extra to gauge market sentiment, reference point will still be there and we will be able to read the original thread for years to come.

As for discussion, you could always steer it towards your direction, do not see a big deal here. Anyway, since mod only allow one bear thread in the forum let me edit the first post and add your original posting .
This thread is NOT a continuation. If it was a continuation, it would have been a Version 2 of the same title. But now its just another one of those threads. The title means alot for future reference. The poll means nothing (as always) and no there will not be any reference because nobody will be looking for this thread as its just another one of those normal threads. You started this thread without giving me (or anybody else) a chance to continue a Version 2.

Again, its not a competition. I merely wanted to create a proper reference thread with the proper information contained not just to have a DDD or UUU discussion. Now that is lost because of how this thread has been positioned. The meaning has been lost and cannot be found with a title like "is the bubble bursting'. Just type 'property bubble' and click search. See the number of similar type threads which appear in the results. WHats gonna make ppl wanna reference this? Thats why i chose that topic of the 4 SIGNS. That was different and could be used as a future reference.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Jan 20 2014, 12:40 AM
cybermaster98
post Jan 20 2014, 12:59 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 20 2014, 12:51 AM)
I did not start it as a V2. Cherroy edited it and added V2 there.
This poll might mean nothing to you, but people are voting, and 344 votes later we get some sense of the market sentiment, albeit it is only limited to those who frequent this forum.

Please do not get so worked up on the title. Whatever the title, both UUU and DDD will come flooding in debating and belittling each other, in between these posts we will get some quality gem response. The same goes to your original thread, or even your V2 which was closed earlier.

I will leave you the privilege of starting V3, whatever title you wished to put there. peace.
What sense of market sentiment are u getting from the poll? Who are those voting as Option 3 and 4 in your poll? U think those are all actual property investors? Do u know how many of those commenting here are agents? U diverted the whole discussion into a poll which means nothing because this poll (just like all previous ones) are NEVER reflective of actual market conditions. Ask any seasoned contributer in the property section of LYN and they will tell you.

This thread was a mistake not because of the type of discussions but because we have lost a good reference point because of your haste to start a topic and get your name on the board. I had no issue with your thread until my Version 2 was closed cuz that meant a loss of reference. U think this thread is gonna be alive in months to come? You obviously have not had much experience in LYN Property section for sure if ure thinking along these lines. There was no reason for you to start this thread so soon after V1 was closed. Now this will become another one of those 'also rans' type threads about the future of the property market.


cybermaster98
post Jan 20 2014, 01:04 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Jan 20 2014, 12:49 AM)
Everyone read post here for the past 2years know all poll go one direction.
Exactly my point! Polls here in the property section about future performance of the market is almost virtually rubbish. If he wanted to start a poll on this no problem but he referenced my earlier thread and turned this into another bear market discussion which went against LYN rules and because of that crap timing rule, his thread went thru while my 'real' V2 got blocked. And now we have lost a good reference.

For once i wanted to see if these signs could actually be used to gauge the market's future performance. It was a test and i wanted to see what the LYN forummers thought. That thread could have gone on for ages (even well into 2015/2016) because the title was correct and discussions were fine. But all that has now gone up in smoke because of one hasty forumer who decided to jump the gun merely to get his name on the board. If i had taken like a few days to start V2 then fine but this was barely a day and yet he did it without thinking.
cybermaster98
post Jan 20 2014, 01:07 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 20 2014, 01:03 AM)
no wonder lahh many agents ahh... no wonder the result tilted in such a way signifies a BBB wave still on the move.. cehhh... but in actual fact sudah DDD... why lehh.. got invisible hands in LYN ?? hmm
Nothing new la bro. Seasoned forumers in LYN know this thats why they dont bother starting polls for this purpose. Thats why im pissed that a good thread was ruined by an over zealous forumer. He didnt even have the sense to ask me at least before starting. The very least he should have done was use the exact same title with the same info posted so that we have a continuity. Now we only have the discussions which wont last long because of the title of the thread. Seasoned forumers know how important a title is to garner interest and make future reference easier.

cybermaster98
post Jan 24 2014, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 24 2014, 02:00 PM)
Thread reopened. Try stick with market discussion, be less emotional when dealing with trolls. Avoid personal attacks, else it might be closed again.
Thats why i said this thread should never have been turned into a poll. It just gives rise to such comments n arguments. Its also the thread starter's responsibility to try and ensure discussions are kept civil to a certain extent. Thats what i did on my earlier thread and everything was fine. You on the other hand havent had much input on this thread which is a pity cuz a reasonable thread earlier was closed cuz of your haste. Did u also note that many of the discussions here are actually 'empty' talk Lets see how long it takes to reach 120 pages. Even i have stopped providing any valuable input here. Why bother when the thread isnt going anywhere and cannot be a good source of reference in the future? When this thread is closed in 100 pages time, who is gonna bother to refer to it?
cybermaster98
post Jan 24 2014, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 24 2014, 02:55 PM)
Ok, you are the best. thanks for your contributions.
Nope far from it. I rely alot on input / knowledge from the more seasoned forumers in LYN but for them to provide such input the title of the thread and the type of discussions it has are important. Where are the seasoned property investors if i may ask? Dont see them flocking here to contribute anything meaningful. Let's see you putting some effort first in YOUR own thread.
cybermaster98
post Feb 10 2014, 10:56 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Feb 10 2014, 10:42 PM)
Guys play by the rules. Do not troll and Don't feed the trolls.
Kill the thread and lets start a PROPER thread. Long overdue. Told u that you cant start threads with polls and expect sensible discussions.
cybermaster98
post Feb 11 2014, 01:14 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 11 2014, 10:59 AM)
Can't wait to be a TS, get irritated when another fellow start a similar thread, claim refused to comment but often come in to compare his better version & ask TS to close the thread so that he can reinstate his V2 & become TS..lol
Bro, i think u need to grow up a bit. Stick to the topic at hand. I never once said i wont comment at all. If you have a problem reading and understanding English then it aint my problem but dont claim i said something which i did not. Btw, wasnt it you who PM'd me asking me to quickyly start a new thread when this thread got put into cold storage for a day? Give it a rest.

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