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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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cheahcw2003
post Jan 14 2014, 05:48 PM

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this thread is repeated like many other similar thread discussing the same topic.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 14 2014, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(MaxKHOO @ Jan 14 2014, 05:56 PM)
Can't see any bubble bursting in the last 3 mths,  prices stay stagnant.
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+1
some can't differentiate in between "slow down" and "bubble bustling"
the high drop out rate on the new launches are mainly due to the credit tightening.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 14 2014, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(jepakazoid_82 @ Jan 14 2014, 09:27 PM)
Wow these are from transacted price?
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if i am not mistaken, these prices were taken from prowall website. Average asking price, if there are auction price posting (which usually below market price) in that particular month, then it will bring down the average price.

This post has been edited by cheahcw2003: Jan 14 2014, 09:53 PM
cheahcw2003
post Jan 15 2014, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 15 2014, 09:59 AM)
Yes.

As mentioned before, Malaysia has been in a bubble for some time. But being in a bubble isnt always bad. The only problem is when the bubble bursts. Countries can be in bubbles for a long time and some without even bursting. Some come out of a bubble even without bursting. But Bank Negara is not going to allow the bubble to burst in Malaysia. Hence all these measures to cool down the property market before that happens.

So what im quite sure will happen is a stagnation and a price drop in some areas experiencing a glut in condos or condos sold at unreasonable prices by greedy developers in new growth areas. But prime and mature areas will keep rising or worse case scenario, stagnate for a while before resuming the uptrend. But i worry about new launches which are being sold to inexperienced investors buying with the herd mentality.

Either way, this discussion is similar to:
https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=3100773

The reason i created that thread was to:

1) Give all of us a platform to discuss openly and maturedly (so far so good)
2) Provide a thread which can be referenced in future to see if the 4 signs were actually correct for Malaysia
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+1 agree with your point

cheahcw2003
post Jan 15 2014, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 15 2014, 10:24 AM)
a poll asking if people are "looking to buy", "just holding", "only selling" or "no plans to buy" will tell a bit more and if responses are honest enough, we'll see the same result.

at this time, call it bubble or not, burst or no burst, i am convinced the no. of willing and able to buy at current prices, i.e. real demand has dropped and is still going down. if one sieves out the noises and read the rest of news, reports and comments, that can only be the ....
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Agree with you.
The poll itself already bias. With 3 options recognising there is a bubble, 1 option no bubble, another 1 no comments.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 15 2014, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 15 2014, 09:20 AM)
Benefactors: Property players that have cashed out and waiting to re-enter at lower pricing.
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Some of these "players" have been waited since 2008.
And invest nothing. Some of them are my family friends.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 15 2014, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 15 2014, 11:56 AM)
Local property market is not the only investment option available, they may have invested in other market as may have better return and less exposure to flip-flop policy changes.
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some of them keep in FD as an option.
But I agree with you, our government is good in flip flop policies, i.e. RPGT rate changed 4 times in the last 5 years.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 15 2014, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 15 2014, 02:18 PM)
Is my eye blur ? I thought I saw 2 options for bubble, 2 option for no bubble ?
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The 3rd option is not a definite No
Long way to go means a matter of time.
My interpretation
cheahcw2003
post Jan 15 2014, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 15 2014, 07:38 PM)
Bro, it has a "No" in front of the sentence  tongue.gif  I don't see any clearer than that which a person can interpret otherwise. A "No" is "not a definite No" ?  blink.gif

Read the answer together with the question again. It is very clear lah
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ok lah u win.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 16 2014, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 16 2014, 12:57 PM)
Manyak api over here. Mod gonna shut down thread soon. sweat.gif
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It's a debate of to invest or not to invest in 2014.
There is no right or wrong answer, just different opinion.
Those who have not invested want the price to drop, and they are waiting now with cash.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 16 2014, 01:16 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 16 2014, 01:09 PM)
Phase 1 - 400k, phase 2 - 600k. Did their contractors suddenly charged higher and they could not resist? Did the price of materials suddenly jumped so much? Did they have to acquire new land at higher prices? Was the first phase heavily and generously discounted?
Looks like costs increase with every new phase. Developers should lie to their suppliers and tell them its not for a new phase but for a fresh new project lol ok i jest.
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Back to basic, if u study economics, here is the theory:
1) individuals trying to maximizing their utilities/satisfactions. Individuals are statisfied if they can pay less for more.
2) firms tend to maximizing their profit. Most developers are profit driven even they are GLCs.
End of the day, willing buyers willing sellers.
The anti speculation policies from Bnm do cut down the speculation demand to a great extend though.



cheahcw2003
post Jan 16 2014, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(godlikexioo @ Jan 16 2014, 03:10 PM)
Burst just let it burst, "How many 10 years do u have in your life", enjoy the show whether Good or Bad. "Hong Hong liet liet" 轰轰烈烈 to do it in one round. after 18 years be a tough guy again.
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u sound like 隔岸观火
cheahcw2003
post Jan 17 2014, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 17 2014, 10:25 AM)
If u wanna hold be my guest, we r targeting the mass that is going to give up & that's my friend is majority of UUU camp.

U don't wanna sell so be it, I am looking at your neighbours. .wakakaka

This is in contra of earlier market believe "if u can't affford the price flipper ask for there r richer one who can" so now is "if u not willing to do fire sales, there r other who's willing"..lol
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i agree to ur statement.

On top of that we also need to catagorize the investors/ flipper groups according to property price range.
1) those soho, sovo, sofo, studio investment which price range of upto RM350K
2) mass market apartment/condo from 350K to 700K
3) mass market landed from 400k to 800K
4) higher end of condo/ landed from 800k to 1.5mil
5) luxurious property above 1.5mil

which catagory would more likely to have firesales in terms of % ????
In general, ppl believe those richer investors at category 4) and 5) tends to have better holding power to weather the storm. Dear all forumers, what is your view?
cheahcw2003
post Jan 18 2014, 12:52 AM

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QUOTE(brother love @ Jan 17 2014, 09:08 PM)
NotHing personal, but people who complain expensive poperties, they have many choices to look for older subsales at much cheaper price, but no, they want the latest new condos, and they spent most of their salary changing the latest Samsung or Apple iphones, going to expensive holidays using credit card, use balance transfers, and drive Rm90k City instead of Rm50k Pptong...they enjoy life but little savings and dare to complain when property prices goes up, always blame others rather than themselves
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+100.
well said
cheahcw2003
post Jan 21 2014, 10:40 AM

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This thread is discussing about the general enviornment.

But i always believe that there are still good number of people making money in the bad time, and some people even making lost in good time. This applies on the property investment scene as well.




cheahcw2003
post Jan 21 2014, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 21 2014, 09:07 PM)
can you give a real example how can someone make a loss in good time?

past few years property boom, i think you can close eye and basically buy any property without doing any analysis or consideration and you are guaranteed to earn, at least 1% also. there is not a single person i know who lose money in property investment for the past 3-4 years or maybe 5 years...
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Those who
1) vested in the wrong place, like those who vested in Bkt Beruntung many years ago,
2) Some property got value no market demand, just paper gain and siok sendiri. Can't rent out, negative cash flow, get stucked.
3) buy commercial retail lots, mall dead no crowds, buy office can't rent out, no office tenants.

and the lists go on....
cheahcw2003
post Jan 22 2014, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(hondaracer @ Jan 22 2014, 07:09 AM)
Hi!

Thanks.

Can you provide property names to (2) and (3)?
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Ask any property agents that u know, they will tell u.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 24 2014, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 24 2014, 05:30 PM)
Before 1997 crisis, everyone in the stock market believed they were genius, could make $$$ from nothing. Likewise, those who are in property are behaving the same.
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In 1997 crisis, many investors are gamblers, want to get rich overnight. Property investment requires longer term in nature.

For newly purchase properties from developer, it needs 3 years to complete. Even for subsales it would be preferably to hold more than 5 years to avoid RPGT.
Similarly if the share investors able to hold 3-5 years after the 97 crisis. They are better off and sure making fantastic profit.

The quick flipping glory days are over. Investors are advised to mentally prepare to hold longer.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 25 2014, 12:25 AM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Jan 24 2014, 11:50 PM)
If they can get loan for multiple units, why not? Why do people always assume flippers cannot sustain the installments? I cannot understand.
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those who has holding power can survive, those who can't they will not get over the storm.
cheahcw2003
post Jan 26 2014, 08:11 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 07:59 AM)
Further, many flippers paid deposit by cc installment i.e. zero cash investment. If this does not constitute sub-prime, what is?
Property market is not something new. Ever wonder why older people (e.g. gen x) and have more resources are not overwhelming in current property market frenzy?
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Not many investors whom I know of using credit cards/ balance transfer to buy property, especially the generation X and baby boomers generation. Maybe u r talking about the shoe box size development such as the studio/soho/sovo types of property which more likely attract Gen Y due to its affordability. These category of property would be oversupply.

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