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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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joeblows
post Mar 18 2013, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 18 2013, 04:05 PM)
what if the owner doesn't need to flip and bought the property for rental yield and keep for long term?
not necessary have to flip and sell in 6 years right?

i tried to read a book from Milan Doshi, one of the advice is buy and assume to keep like forever... i recall reading this statement...
*
That all depends on the rental yield, right? And yes, that's actual property investing, while flipping is just speculation or gambling.

In previous times when you can get yields of 7+%, makes great sense.

Current times where you just hope your yield can cover your monthly installment, is already a dangerous sign. Some areas, rental yield can't even cover installment, and owner needs to top up.
Nikmon
post Mar 18 2013, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 18 2013, 04:34 PM)
hmm... no need statistic...but what about real case example?

Bought in 2007, apartment A, cost about RM160k for example. Now selling price listed around RM300k ... assuming there is downturn and price drop 40% or 50%...it will be back to the original buying price. just continue to rent it out and the rental is enough to cover the loan repayment...

so those who bought earlier before the property 'boom'... i don't see any reason to worry about the crash... if they are not going for capital appreciation gain...
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How about those bought late 2011?
joeblows
post Mar 18 2013, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 18 2013, 04:34 PM)
hmm... no need statistic...but what about real case example?

Bought in 2007, apartment A, cost about RM160k for example. Now selling price listed around RM300k ... assuming there is downturn and price drop 40% or 50%...it will be back to the original buying price. just continue to rent it out and the rental is enough to cover the loan repayment...

so those who bought earlier before the property 'boom'... i don't see any reason to worry about the crash... if they are not going for capital appreciation gain...
*
Why not wait till downturn and save that even 30-40%?

30% of 300K = 90K.

You've just saved yourself RM90k, adding in interest savings and everything it could be as much as RM150k over the course of 20-30 years.

That 150K you can use to treat yourself to a brand new nice Toyota Camry.

So, why not wait?
minoxidil_trade
post Mar 18 2013, 05:19 PM

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Change my mind, I vote down for this year. Don't see any bullish on salary increment on some field.

This post has been edited by minoxidil_trade: Mar 18 2013, 05:20 PM
Nikmon
post Mar 18 2013, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(minoxidil_trade @ Mar 18 2013, 05:19 PM)
Change my mind, I vote down for this year. Don't see any bullish on salary increment on some field.
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U definitely not from gov sector..
ay@m
post Mar 18 2013, 05:24 PM

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those bought late 2011, i am not sure what is their strategy...most likely should be for capital appreciation since rental yield may not be enough to cover...

do take note that i am responding to the discussion on flipping after 6 years... and explain why the owner is not selling because the original intention is to have consistent rental yield... about 7-8% ....


QUOTE(Nikmon @ Mar 18 2013, 04:57 PM)
How about those bought late 2011?
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ay@m
post Mar 18 2013, 05:29 PM

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assuming if we want to buy new property now?

well, if there's property available out there where the rental is able to cover the loan...do you want to wait further?
i don't have a good understanding or i cannot predict when the so called bubble will crash...if wait...wait until when?

or if you can find a property about 20% below the market rate, do you wait or just buy now?

main problem now is no one knows when the downturn will happen...although i strongly agree there should be a cycle up and down...but no one has the crystal ball and predict when it will happen right?




QUOTE(joeblows @ Mar 18 2013, 05:03 PM)
Why not wait till downturn and save that even 30-40%?

30% of 300K = 90K.

You've just saved yourself RM90k, adding in interest savings and everything it could be as much as RM150k over the course of 20-30 years.

That 150K you can use to treat yourself to a brand new nice Toyota Camry.

So, why not wait?
*
all blacks
post Mar 18 2013, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Mar 18 2013, 11:18 AM)
I don't notice this trend in Puchong and Kinrara. You have any examples?
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You can try looking at the recently VP'ed units such as Emerald and Sapphire... Launching price was around 700K and 6xxK.. Current asking price is 950K-1mil and 940K-980K..

The units was ready around last year May.. So basically 300K increase in 2 years ++ since launch... Not sure if tats called "healthy" appreciation?
zuiko407
post Mar 18 2013, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Mar 18 2013, 05:03 PM)
Why not wait till downturn and save that even 30-40%?

30% of 300K = 90K.

You've just saved yourself RM90k, adding in interest savings and everything it could be as much as RM150k over the course of 20-30 years.

That 150K you can use to treat yourself to a brand new nice Toyota Camry.

So, why not wait?
*
30% too little, make it 75%, that's isetan used to give during cny or Christmas
zuiko407
post Mar 18 2013, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(all blacks @ Mar 18 2013, 05:30 PM)
You can try looking at the recently VP'ed units such as Emerald and Sapphire... Launching price was around 700K and 6xxK.. Current asking price is 950K-1mil and 940K-980K..

The units was ready around last year May.. So basically 300K increase in 2 years ++ since launch... Not sure if tats called "healthy" appreciation?
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Sapphire was 530k by ballot, not 6xx,xxx
x_x
TSkochin
post Mar 18 2013, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Mar 18 2013, 05:03 PM)
Why not wait till downturn and save that even 30-40%?

30% of 300K = 90K.

You've just saved yourself RM90k, adding in interest savings and everything it could be as much as RM150k over the course of 20-30 years.

That 150K you can use to treat yourself to a brand new nice Toyota Camry.

So, why not wait?
*
boss, your calculation is true IF there's a downturn.
alternatively, let's assume there's a 5% net yield out there.
if the guy bought it immediately before the downturn, do not forget to factor in the yield he would be getting from now till the downturn.
please also do not forget the potential cap app before the downturn.

if it's for own stay, please do not forget the $$$ he would have saved from paying rental to their present landlord.

guess the debate is still on when the downturn would strike and how severe.

AVFAN
post Mar 18 2013, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 18 2013, 03:59 PM)
almost any property owner who bough his before 2008, is almost certain to make handsome profits selling it anytime from 2010 till now. No knowledge is needed. NONE. Even idiot can do it as long as he knows how to sign.

That's the best bubble sign.

ad, always enjoyed reading yr posts. thumbup.gif

i bot in 2006-09, excellent results. no eye see after that.

becos i remember what it was with bursa in the early 90s - simply punt and everyone made tens of k's within weeks. all went bust in 98.

humans have short memories of bad things, maybe? or some have no idea at all. tongue.gif

axisresidence17
post Mar 18 2013, 06:58 PM

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Nope. Not that easy. High price buyer just come see see only. Somemore bank reluctant to give high valuation.

QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 18 2013, 03:59 PM)
almost any property owner who bough his before 2008, is almost certain to make handsome profits selling it anytime from 2010 till now. No knowledge is needed. NONE. Even idiot can do it as long as he knows how to sign.

That's the best bubble sign.

user posted image
*
all blacks
post Mar 18 2013, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 18 2013, 05:35 PM)
Sapphire was 530k by ballot, not 6xx,xxx
x_x
*
Holycow.. I noe tat Emerald launching price was 700K but never thought Sappire was so low, gt to noe through agent tat it was around 660K mark.. No wonder a lot of loans got rejected due to low valuation... Sappire valuation is at 850K and max is 880K but asking already 9xxK...
SUStat3179
post Mar 18 2013, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 18 2013, 04:31 PM)
That's the problem now, when government spoon feed something cheap, but people not interested.
Maybe the new launch by developer are too tempted, nice concept, nice facilities, nice showroom.
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It is not that it is cheap.

It is the requirements to stay in and non transfer for 10 years that kept most at bay.

There are plenty that will buy it so that they can stay.
SUStat3179
post Mar 18 2013, 09:26 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 18 2013, 05:43 PM)
boss, your calculation is true IF there's a downturn.
alternatively, let's assume there's a 5% net yield out there.
if the guy bought it immediately before the downturn, do not forget to factor in the yield he would be getting from now till the downturn.
please also do not forget the potential cap app before the downturn.

if it's for own stay, please do not forget the $$$ he would have saved from paying rental to their present landlord.

guess the debate is still on when the downturn would strike and how severe.
*
Provided you could time it perfectly and sell your prop before the downturn..

prody
post Mar 18 2013, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(all blacks @ Mar 18 2013, 05:30 PM)
You can try looking at the recently VP'ed units such as Emerald and Sapphire... Launching price was around 700K and 6xxK.. Current asking price is 950K-1mil and 940K-980K..

The units was ready around last year May.. So basically 300K increase in 2 years ++ since launch... Not sure if tats called "healthy" appreciation?
*
As I was saying: "Subsale seems very slow and asking prices are dropping."

Of course compared to 3 years ago prices are up. But it seems to me in many areas asking prices are dropping compared to 3-6 months ago.
SilverSpoon
post Mar 18 2013, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 18 2013, 04:31 PM)
That's the problem now, when government spoon feed something cheap, but people not interested.
Maybe the new launch by developer are too tempted, nice concept, nice facilities, nice showroom.
*
QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 18 2013, 09:23 PM)
It is not that it is cheap.

It is the requirements to stay in and non transfer for 10 years that kept most at bay.

There are plenty that will buy it so that they can stay.
*
Thank for your answer tat3179, in fact there are more reasons why some people are not interested in the PR1MA house.
Zuiko, i dont mean to be rude but the more you post this type of comment here will only show how 'mature' you are.
doh.gif

This post has been edited by SilverSpoon: Mar 18 2013, 09:51 PM
debtismoney
post Mar 18 2013, 09:45 PM

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Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) declined by 30.6 per cent on-year in February

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/sin...1260678/1/.html


It seems like an official global recession is just around the corner. blink.gif blink.gif

This time will be a lot worst than the 2008/09 GFC without any doubt, simply the world economies have unprecedented debt levels. Last time the governments around the world bailed out the private sectors, this time around who is going to bail the governments out? Answer = print!


Bank run in Cyprus!

Cyprus is introducing what the Eurogroup calls “an upfront one-off stability levy” on bank deposits (though I doubt those affected by it will be feeling too stable this weekend). The levy takes 6.75 percent of all deposits under €100,000 (people who were under the impression they were protected by a deposit guarantee scheme) and 9.9 percent of all deposits above €100,000.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-16/e...us-bailout.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/karlwhelan/201...nd-of-the-euro/


These days governments can steal your phony money in the banks just like that! Have you got enough gold/silver to hedge against the ongoing currency war? 99% will say no, because the crowd is always wrong throughout history. It is like what the crowd has been doing over the past few years - queue to buy property! rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
all blacks
post Mar 18 2013, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Mar 18 2013, 09:29 PM)
As I was saying: "Subsale seems very slow and asking prices are dropping."

Of course compared to 3 years ago prices are up. But it seems to me in many areas asking prices are dropping compared to 3-6 months ago.
*
Actually for the units tat I mentioned, Emerald from 850K went up to 970K in 7 months time period...

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