Just because it never happened before doesn't mean that it wouldn't happen.
~copy from a lawyer~

Not sure up or down after election. Hope will up further which means the economy is good. But that also mean more money needed to buy a house.

If can wait of cause wait until price down to bottom. Just in case its the other way round then just have to accept it.

Recent launches don't see any cheap price. But subsales are not doing very good at certain area. However, there are areas that can't be valued due to its super prime location. Some houses in TTDI are already too expensive but still no one selling. Not sure why.
I'm planning to buy a small size SoHo to work and live there. Any recommendation? Subsales better or new launch???

Reckon arcadia SoHo is not bad. But size is a little bigger than I wish for.

New launch soho at subang height, 450sf, 230k

any ways to measure how many mortgage debt is with non BLR? That will highlight the risk rate...

ok la...when i read the reply...didn't really answer my question...but looks like your lawyer friend trying to imply that the property bubble is happening now, but did not happen in the past at all... well, until it burst... we won't really know if this is a bubble or not...

my main point here is if you can buy and hold over the years...long term... bubble or no bubble...it should be alright as the price sure UP... when you buy the property at the right location...

good points for discussion anyway...i'll try to open my eyes more for the questions you posted below...still haven't really observed much Bank Lelong signs around and For sale, there's always the subsale going on...

Subsale market is at least 2x of primary market (by 2012 total sale). It translates to over 65% of the market share.

No matter how well the new launches may portray, it is less than 40% of the total market.

A slowdown of the subsale is a big enough signal to be more cautious. To no avail drilling on the ox horn point.

To be fair, I don't think previous property bubbles were built on the back of debts so much as the current situation.

I agree that for period of 20 yrs or more.......you should be okay (maybe) but if you see the current market situation is so overheated, it may be worth your while to wait for awhile and buy in at a lower price - particularly for condo. For landed, still should be okay over long term.

People are waiting for post election , hoping for cheaper sub-sale after election.

PR1MA program also reduce the house subsale. Everyone is hoping they are the lucky one that get the PR1MA... A new house at cheaper price...

This post has been edited by moon yuen: Mar 18 2013, 12:54 AM

If the house is new / just get OC & under warranty... It will get good demand, higher than launch priec

But, a lot of subsale is not new ... more than 5 years, OLD DESIGN. no longer warranty.... Crack here & there, water leak bla bla ... People don't like to buy house tht have problems....

But even for new ones, I wonder how many ppl can afford those.. Just try searching for Qaseh kinrara... I wonder if we really have tat many ppl who can afford those 1 mil++ sub sale units..

Quite a number of new landed properties being listed almost everywhere... Curios to c on the outcome.. Bcause almost all the units price are 200K -350K more than launch price..

frankly, KL a lot overpriced...but, how ??

Loan ma, Parents + children + siblings, all combined maybe can buy a landed house lo

But my question is this, should the worst occurs and we experience what the Americans experience during the '08, even thou you have holding power but your props are 30-40 percent underwater, how long must you wait for the prices to even return to the level you bought, much less increase, if it ever does.

For example, some houses in the us never went back to the level it was first sold during the bubble.

Part of a generation of young people in Malaysia will suffer (financial) death by DIBS if the new property launch party continues unabated a couple more years. The late stayers, the late comers and the serial party goers. A speculative generation leveraged to the hilt, never ever having faced extreme adversity, not appreciating debt (and its provider, the bank) is a four letter word that will bite you in the behind when you are down.

The developer, having sold, built and completed his highrise project within 3/4 years, washes his hands and moves on with his fat profits to the next project. He knows he's home free. The face off is between the property buyer/borrower and the bank until the 30/35 year loan is repaid. In a meltdown, banks will look after themselves first. Who's going to look after you?

bingo!

the moment S&P concluded, developers taichi-ed to buyer and lenders.

good point, i have also think of that before...

if you look at US case...it is worse as any ah beng, ah kow, muthu and ahmad can get loan...that is really a big bubble happening cause the buyer's financial is not stable at all...

but on the other hand, the banks here at least are not giving free money away.... in fact yesterday, i just heard from an agent that there are loans getting rejected...well...i don't know if the agents are telling the truth or not but i don't see any reason why the agent want to lie to me about this...

so in my opinion, we can't compare this to the US case...US ppl not much savings...but in Malaysia, lots of ppl got savings and backup... maybe not all but i'm sure we're better off than US....

until that happens in Malaysia, i mean about the dubious loans scheme to anyone...i won't compare this to US... but good point brought up by you to take note of...

I think we need to be clear on a few things. Firstly, property will rise and fall in accordance with cycles. It wont be down forever and neither will it be up for good. There is no question about IF a slump happens. What's more of a concern is the extent of the fall when it does happen.

Right now the concern is mainly in 2015/2016 when about 35,000 residential units come into the market here. How many of purchasers today have the financial muscle to withstand a slump when they get VP of their units? How many can afford to continue paying monthly installments when they can't sell, refinance or rent out their property?

Look at the new developments which have obtained VP in 2012/2013. Look at how many are on sale or waiting for tenants. Its actually shocking. Look at Solaris Dutamas for instance. Despite having Publika below which is doing quite well, there are many original owners who cant sell or rent out their units. The last i checked, there were >500 units for rent and many have been empty since getting VP. Is the actual occupancy even 50% now? Just drive by at night and ull see. And thats a similar sight at many of the new developments.

So the question here is, if this is the state in 2013, what can we expect in 2016 with even more expensive properties? What are your thoughts?

the argument is the usual mysians are rich, can pay, just keep, got backup.... i doubt it - i think most prop buyers today are 'cepat kaya" type. if no profit coming soon, they'll dump and run off! the reality is that hasn't happened yet.

if the trend of subsale market continues for couple more years, many on the subsale market give up. compound that continued buying of new at record prices. the trigger for a corrrection in both subsale and new launch prices most likely will be just that.

There are many deep pocket investors out of your imagination. I recently viewed a few "brand new" condo unit (out of 30+), with electric wire still hanging on the ceiling, but the condo had been VP and tenanted for more than 6 years.

Sure.

But how many of them are willing to wait, and wait for how long? It is still unproductive asset that produces nothing you know. That money tied into that asset could have been placed elsewhere more productive.

You can't live in more than 1 prop in 1 time no matter what.

What's the point waiting when the train don't seem to be coming?

if not usa, can learn a bit from iceland, ireland, spain, portugal and recently, canada - all had prop market collapse.

there won't be exact data for anyone to say for sure, just be mindful of the signs.

agentdiary's point on subsale market conditions is a major sign to consider. ballooning housing debt is another. watch also the non peforming loans.

if and when it all happens, it'll be too late, no point even to post anything in this forum!