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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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Nikmon
post Mar 15 2013, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(sishouse2 @ Mar 15 2013, 08:46 PM)
depends on PRU13
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mind to further elaborate? pp keep saying investor stop buy and waiting the GE, but why? biggrin.gif

so far neither opposition nor BN plan to introduce new policy to curb the property price!!

car sale market is affected is understandable as opposition plan to cut the tax, why property market is affected by GE result???

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 15 2013, 09:08 PM
Nikmon
post Mar 17 2013, 11:14 AM

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Why auction and new launch still hot but sub sale so slow How average home buyer think, isn't a sub sale now is more worth where price alway cheaper and ready for move in. Why why why....

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 17 2013, 11:15 AM
Nikmon
post Mar 17 2013, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(sting79 @ Mar 17 2013, 02:27 PM)
Boss, you post this hoping someone would answer but I'm sure you know already right?

New launches - low initial cost (low downpayment, DIBS, other discount, pay only interest before completion, etc)
Subsale - high initial cost (10% downpayment for most cases, immediate full monthly installment, renovation costs, etc)

Obviously most people falls under the category who prefer low initial cost, no? Go in low, go out high ma...
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Haha, I purposely put homebuyer not investor, unless all the new launch was acquired by investor, but I believe there are some buy for own stay in new launch. biggrin.gif maybe some heme buyer may reply why they willing to wait 3-4 years and pay premium.

Nikmon
post Mar 18 2013, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 18 2013, 04:05 PM)
what if the owner doesn't need to flip and bought the property for rental yield and keep for long term?
not necessary have to flip and sell in 6 years right?

i tried to read a book from Milan Doshi, one of the advice is buy and assume to keep like forever... i recall reading this statement...
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Any statistic to support ur view?
Nikmon
post Mar 18 2013, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 18 2013, 04:34 PM)
hmm... no need statistic...but what about real case example?

Bought in 2007, apartment A, cost about RM160k for example. Now selling price listed around RM300k ... assuming there is downturn and price drop 40% or 50%...it will be back to the original buying price. just continue to rent it out and the rental is enough to cover the loan repayment...

so those who bought earlier before the property 'boom'... i don't see any reason to worry about the crash... if they are not going for capital appreciation gain...
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How about those bought late 2011?
Nikmon
post Mar 18 2013, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(minoxidil_trade @ Mar 18 2013, 05:19 PM)
Change my mind, I vote down for this year. Don't see any bullish on salary increment on some field.
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U definitely not from gov sector..
Nikmon
post Mar 19 2013, 07:59 PM

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QUOTE(kingalfred9999 @ Mar 19 2013, 07:46 PM)
Actually price got drop meh? (scratch2 head). Was helping friend to look around for subsale condo for her own stay also struggle like hell...seeing price inching up every 2-3weeks..

dont shoot me.. just 2c.
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Woo, before other down camp shoot u, better share which property u r referring.
Nikmon
post Mar 19 2013, 08:05 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Mar 19 2013, 07:50 PM)
I think firstly we have to identify what is the market price. How to identify this? Via bank valuation? if bank valuation low but ROI can get 10% how? This considered below market coz dropped? Or just follow advertisement? Drop means drop and up means up? Not easy to categorize this too, right?
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Not difficult, as long as latest transaction price is higher than previous transaction for similar unit, it consider up, Vice vesar.

Just ignore the asking price
Nikmon
post Mar 19 2013, 08:09 PM

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QUOTE(kingalfred9999 @ Mar 19 2013, 08:02 PM)
background checking?  drool.gif

Go see see....taman desa... sentul east, west, bukit jalil, setiawangsa....

name of condo.. no need la.. expert like u surely can guess the few popular ones based on the locations...

peace..
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This is the problem, can't find any unit inch up weekly... Convillea, no, savanna, no, desa R, no, PV16 no, opal no, casa tro, no...what leh... smile.gif biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 19 2013, 08:10 PM
Nikmon
post Mar 21 2013, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Mar 21 2013, 12:17 PM)
One of the reasons I can think of besides 'cheaper' property price is our country doesn't those big natural disaster problem. smile.gif
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yes, there are few places have been identified as new foreign heaven, BJ, Ara, SS16, Cycberjaya, Taman Desa, kuchai Lama. rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
Nikmon
post Mar 21 2013, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Mar 21 2013, 12:27 PM)
Kuchai Lama? That's good...mine near by there.  rclxms.gif
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no worry, OKR also got potential.

zeti said 80% dept of GDP is healthy, she will do nothing. !!!!! rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 21 2013, 12:41 PM
Nikmon
post Mar 21 2013, 01:33 PM

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BNM forecasting 2-3 inflation in 2013, prepare for BLR increase.

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 21 2013, 01:33 PM
Nikmon
post Mar 21 2013, 07:35 PM

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興業研究說,有趣的是,國行認為低息環境對產業市場影響不大,自2010年推出系列打房措施後,產業市場的投資活動有放緩跡象,因此預見國行將不會推出進一步打房措施。

It is funny BNM think low interest has minimal impact to property market. Quote by RHB research house.
Nikmon
post Mar 21 2013, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 21 2013, 10:33 PM)
Indeed many predictions already done since 2008.
"....soon" - when?
"Will crash..." - when?

2008/2009 subprime
2010 - Budget - LTV 70%
2011 - Budget - RPGT 10%/5%
2012 - Budget - RPGT 15%/10%
BTS proposal
PIGS Crisis
Loan approved based on nett income
GE13

Many hv details analysis on how the above will lead to property correction / crash, but after the incident happen, these people silent, dun bother to analyse why the mkt did not react positively. Sigh.. cool2.gif
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2008/2009 subprime - property bursts in western country, how this lead malaysia property market crash?
2010 - Budget - LTV 70% - this indeed has slow down price escalation
2011 - Budget - RPGT 10%/5% - it is too little
2012 - Budget - RPGT 15%/10% - same as above.
BTS proposal - if this enforce, it definitely will impact the market, but this delay like GsT
PIGS Crisis - there are struggle to recover and crisis has not blow yet as for now
Loan approved based on nett income- implemented, this is the culprit of the slow sub sale.
GE13 - what is this.. But this has affecting stock performance.. Haha

There one only one which will lead the property crash, high debt.......I guess guess only.

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 21 2013, 11:31 PM
Nikmon
post Mar 22 2013, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Mar 22 2013, 11:31 AM)
You're absolutely 110% spot-on  biggrin.gif

They're in such a huge dilemma that they don't have the slightest idea on what to do... the only option to them is to 'closely monitor'... LoL!!! That's the severity of the situation.
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maybe BNM are comfortable with current because lender still healthy, only borrower at not so good position but manageable, so need to closely monitor them.

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 22 2013, 11:40 AM
Nikmon
post Mar 22 2013, 11:43 AM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Mar 22 2013, 11:40 AM)
if they further strict lendings, they might afraid that our economy might head into recession as the global economy outlook seems not promising. If they maintain low interest rates, inflation might shoot up especially the property price.

I would suggest on restricting the loans. Shoot up the interest rates before it crashes further in the future. Just my 2 cents.. tongue.gif
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currently the GDP are mainly depend on construction (debt) while export still lagging, would they willing to further restrict the loan, the growth will drop sharply overnight if they do that.
Nikmon
post Mar 22 2013, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Mar 22 2013, 12:01 PM)
exactly that's the dilemma. The main point for cheap loans, is to further improve GDP. But somehow it failed. Our household debt vs GDP is not improving. So, what if the % reaches 100-110%? Commercial banks will soon have problems. That's bubble.
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bank will increase the rate lo if reach there.
Nikmon
post Mar 22 2013, 08:07 PM

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Zeti is one of the best bank governor in the world. Do not doubt her capability. Price may fly higher like what she said. BBB rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
Nikmon
post Mar 23 2013, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 22 2013, 11:35 PM)
Perhaps Governor Zeti has this chart too.

user posted image
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Gov are damn afraid once the stop build, the GDP will shrump sharply, so need to build more, until we have highest office space..debt also damn high.
Another 100 storey on the way. Lol

The supply of office space in the Klang Valley has surpassed 100 million sq ft, making it the largest stock among the neighbouring South-East Asian metropolitan centres, according to property consultants at Jones Lang Wootton (JLW

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 23 2013, 12:10 AM
Nikmon
post Mar 25 2013, 01:00 PM

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Nice work, we are at the top now. Congratulations.


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