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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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AVFAN
post Mar 18 2013, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 17 2013, 10:26 PM)
Subsale market is at least 2x of primary market (by 2012 total sale). It translates to over 65% of the market share.

No matter how well the new launches may portray, it is less than 40% of the total market.

A slowdown of the subsale is a big enough signal to be more cautious. To no avail drilling on the ox horn point.
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the argument is the usual mysians are rich, can pay, just keep, got backup.... i doubt it - i think most prop buyers today are 'cepat kaya" type. if no profit coming soon, they'll dump and run off! tongue.gif the reality is that hasn't happened yet.

if the trend of subsale market continues for couple more years, many on the subsale market give up. compound that continued buying of new at record prices. the trigger for a corrrection in both subsale and new launch prices most likely will be just that.
AVFAN
post Mar 18 2013, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 18 2013, 09:56 AM)
until that happens in Malaysia, i mean about the dubious loans scheme to anyone...i won't compare this to US... but good point brought up by you to take note of...
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if not usa, can learn a bit from iceland, ireland, spain, portugal and recently, canada - all had prop market collapse.

there won't be exact data for anyone to say for sure, just be mindful of the signs.

agentdiary's point on subsale market conditions is a major sign to consider. ballooning housing debt is another. watch also the non peforming loans.

if and when it all happens, it'll be too late, no point even to post anything in this forum!
AVFAN
post Mar 18 2013, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 18 2013, 03:59 PM)
almost any property owner who bough his before 2008, is almost certain to make handsome profits selling it anytime from 2010 till now. No knowledge is needed. NONE. Even idiot can do it as long as he knows how to sign.

That's the best bubble sign.

ad, always enjoyed reading yr posts. thumbup.gif

i bot in 2006-09, excellent results. no eye see after that.

becos i remember what it was with bursa in the early 90s - simply punt and everyone made tens of k's within weeks. all went bust in 98.

humans have short memories of bad things, maybe? or some have no idea at all. tongue.gif

AVFAN
post Mar 19 2013, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 19 2013, 10:31 AM)
believe it or not... i know someone who actually just bought a landed property from an agent and according to that agent, the price quoted is based on the actual developer's price about 1-2 years ago...this landed property just obtained OC....

and comparing to other similar listing from other 'flippers', the selling price quoted by other owners or flippers is about RM180k more expensive...

weird eh...but for once, this agent actually sold this landed unit for about more or less the same price compared to 1-2 years ago...
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this scenario is not uncommon anymore.

some buyers for some projects can get up to 15% discount.

a fast smaller profit may be the priority rather than holding and pay interest.
AVFAN
post Mar 19 2013, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(torkl @ Mar 19 2013, 05:07 PM)
Denmark joining in the fun
Denmark races to prevent foreclosure

Sounds like a DIBS effect
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“Eighty percent of homeowners under 35 years of age are under water. That’s a lot,”

luckily here in boland, we hav hawkers and teachers making 10k, not so clever cina and sgreans buyig nonstop! tongue.gif

how come they dun hav rich russians and germans buying them?
AVFAN
post Mar 22 2013, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Mar 22 2013, 12:01 PM)
exactly that's the dilemma. The main point for cheap loans, is to further improve GDP. But somehow it failed. Our household debt vs GDP is not improving. So, what if the % reaches 100-110%? Commercial banks will soon have problems. That's bubble.
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becos much of our cheap loans have been used on "good life", cars and prop speculation. even cows, condos and mercs!

do you see many real product and value creating projects like factories, farms and fisheries with new billions invested?

the below does seem right about mysians, incl this thread, just see how many posts made everyday for "buy"!

From a long-term growth perspective, they distort incentives to work, save and invest in value-creating activities in favor of rentier wealth or income from property “investments” (or speculation).

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 22 2013, 02:13 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 22 2013, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Mar 22 2013, 02:13 PM)
i think this cheap loans started to boom up back in 2008-2009. At that time we were in small recession because of FEAR. People spent less, investors took out money from stocks (hence, explains our stock went bearish). BNM had to increase money into the economy by providing cheap loans. The money didn't effect much of our inflation because most loans were home loans...
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correct. as per one video posted here recently, it was post 1998 afc that maktir opend the taps. since then, more taps, bigger taps, opened wider. it is natural for people to use and abuse such cheap money if it is there. therefore, it is the gomen's responsibility to pull the plug someday, if not, the damage can be a lot worse. until they do that, every individual will do their own things that they believe work best for him/her. incl the trillions that have flee the country.

QUOTE
Credit bubble imminent as Malaysia’s household debt rises
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...old-debt-rises/


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 22 2013, 02:44 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 22 2013, 07:11 PM

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well... bnm says suck it boys and girls... prices rose 11% in 2012 vs 2011, speculation here is lower than elsewhere... consturction cost rise is minimal (meaning developers are sucking buyers?)... prices will keep rising... and pls stop saying foreigners are pushing up prices - they're only 2%.

rising home prices, faster rising debt, what's our economy getting into? dangerous times, be careful , be very careful...

QUOTE
Expect home prices to continue to climb, says BNM

Story by
Aidila Razak
aidila@kinibiz.com

Property market trends are spelling happy days for property investors, but less so for home buyers.

According to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), residential property prices surged by 11.2 percent last year compared to 2011– more than double the 10-year average–and are expected to continue to rise in the next few years.

This follows its steep climb starting from the third quarter of 2009.

“Over the next few years, the increase in new home buyers is likely to continue, exceeding average growth in housing stock.

“(This is) notwithstanding measures already announced by the government to add to new supply which are focused mainly on the low-to-medium priced segments,” the central bank said in its annual report launched yesterday.

BNM said prices in the secondary property markets, particularly in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Penang have been pushed up due to poor supply of affordable new developments.

A great bulk of new developments, it said, are priced above RM1 million, forcing 80 percent of property transactions to take place in the secondary market.

It said that these higher priced transactions were also responsible for pushing overall prices up.

“(The growth) was driven mainly by higher prices and transactions in the detached, semi-detached and luxury high-rise property segments,” the central bank said.

Construction costs not main driver

Putting to rest developers claim that property prices are driven by higher cost of construction, it said that cost of construction has grown at a much slower rate in 2012.

“Rising construction costs have only partly explained house price increase between the third quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2011, but the costs have been increasing at a slower rate in 2012,” it said.

On the investment side, returns on investment on residential properties averaged at about 4.6 percent over the fourth quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2012.

In 2012, capital gains grew by 11.2 compared to the year before, in line with rising property prices.

All the same, BNM said speculative activity in the Malaysian property market is “low…compared with property markets in other countries”.

Investment by foreigners account to a modest 2 percent of total number of property market transactions, it said.

It added that regulations and fiscal measures had drastically cut the owners with multiple housing loans (particularly for houses priced below RM250,000) but the figure is back on the rise mid-2012.
http://www.kinibiz.com/story/corporate/103...b-says-bnm.html

AVFAN
post Mar 23 2013, 01:21 AM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Mar 22 2013, 11:35 PM)
Perhaps Governor Zeti has this chart too.

user posted image
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at 250% total debt/gdp, boland not far behind most of the world's 10 largest economies and euro-crisis ones. but gdp/capita so low compared to them, can't be in good shape.
http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database...l#axzz2OI0xKhDC

central banks probably do what they best - suck it up to the ruling gomen and not raise too many alarm bells. when it pops like in greece, ireland and spain, just let the politicans deal with it.
AVFAN
post Mar 23 2013, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 23 2013, 04:26 PM)
I still own all those properties I bought before 2008, with good yields, why bother to flip? They are paying me handsome rentals now which exceed my bank loan installment, more or less I am getting those property for free, since my tenant is paying for me. tongue.gif

Not everyone who invest in property is a flipper you know.  wink.gif Think long term...
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think he meant if u r smart enuf to buy b4 2008 for longterm, u cud hv bought more to flip 2008-2011. that wud hv worked!

it's all about easy loans and bolehness to become demi gods!! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Mar 27 2013, 07:51 PM

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when things are still going up (incl debt), most people can do demi-god talk, easy. when things go down, many tails will drop between the legs, no talk.

if investors/speculators are demi-gods, developers are now full gods - they can sell via online!

if true, rest assured more will do the same - until the party stops. the rest, u can imagine...

QUOTE
Maybe your friend not pulling your leg...
i also heard that someone booked without going there.
Booking done by online transfer or direct bank in
and form was signed and returned by e-mail or fax
saw the chart.. few more units gone today...
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2059004/+2120


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 27 2013, 07:52 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 29 2013, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(Halamdar @ Mar 29 2013, 07:00 PM)
Haha biggrin.gif

So from your definition, law of gravity still apply to the vast majority of ppl who has 3 + properties on loan, IF there is a 25 %+ market correction .
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25% will be a national disaster.

we hear a lot about rising car loans, housing loans, etc. what we dun hear much and that is a much bigger concern, is what gomen and those who walk in the corridors of power has done with the money saved and deposited by all rich and poor malaysians - banks, epf, amanahs included. when one major sector takes a hit, it will start a chain reaction affecting all the rest. in the case of cyprus, a lot of the money was loaned to greece for their prop bubble, civil service pensions, etc.

read this to get an idea why this "debt" issue is becoming such a menace, even a threat to everyone and everything here:

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sidevie...ratio-pak-sako/

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 29 2013, 07:20 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 30 2013, 07:16 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 30 2013, 04:10 PM)
The sign of market euphoria is often when those hardcore sideliners cannot wait anymore and join in the party. When everyone has bought into the gravy train, where all your relatives, uncle, auntie, grandpa, grandma and even your dog is invested. They believe strongly that is the only way to eternal wealth, with unlimited riches, that is where things will start to go downhill, as there are no longer anymore greater fools to sell to.

Judging solely by this forum, market euphoria is near, but not yet, until all the naysayer/sideliners begin to join in.... then... BAM!  sweat.gif

So don't say anymore.. JUST BUY IT!  rclxms.gif
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of course! surely there can't be any wham bam slam unless more join in. almost there, i think. tongue.gif

read below... what tickled me was many here right in this thread are no diff from the politicians! biggrin.gif

QUOTE
There are at least three risks we ought to take note of: the exit from quantitative easing, entrenched European crisis with the bailout of Cyprus and the bubbling of Asian assets.

The US quantitative easing will eventually be withdrawn, and once it does, the stock market will fluctuate tremendously. The earliest date is known to be this November. If Cyprus cannot fails to get liquidity from the ECB and is forced to withdraw from the currency union, the consequences could be grave. The economy of Asia and Malaysia will have to take the brunt of it.

We are living in a world teeming with economic risks, and should therefore make self adjustments from time to time to fit into the bigger environment. But our politicians tell us very different stories. Whom should we trust?
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.ph...-ge13?&Itemid=2


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 30 2013, 07:27 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 31 2013, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Mar 31 2013, 12:55 PM)
tq. it is an interesting article.

the chart below is particularly interesting. it does show, as we know, the prop collapse in usa, ireland, spain. seems the recent canadian collapse hasn't gone in the data yet.

going by that data and the writer's argument, hongkong is about to burst, singapore next. but these are small islands with fast action gomens and lotsa hot money.

it'll be good if similar data for bolehsia is placed on the chart, esp the price relative to rent and avg disposable income. if u can rent a home for <2k pm, for how long can peple keep buying the same kind of home for 700-800k?

user posted image

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 31 2013, 01:50 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 1 2013, 06:23 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Apr 1 2013, 12:09 PM)
OMG!

when i sharing the fact Bumi and none bumi many put me as my fact " racist."

But when you all guy talk about pak hitam. You have the veto power not racist.

See the education level in some of you up up up camp?
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for u tika and tat... do not get too worked up on this, shud be immune by now. many of us read and know that it means - at least in our minds, hearts and souls.

firstly, if these nep privileges are useless and mean nothing, why do u think it is called nep, i.e. never ending policies? they shud give up and renounce it. but like u said, they better suck it up quietly and enjoy while it lasts. and zip it up rather than boast about it.

secondly, we all see who are the opportunists who dun mind this twisted nep effects, there'll always be such ones - and that's precisely why this sick gomen stays on.

third and lastly, i advise u not to assume who is and who isn't that species - u never know. it's pretty akward but when it comes to the crunch, u can tell who is who.
AVFAN
post Apr 2 2013, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Apr 2 2013, 03:20 PM)
good news. rclxms.gif

More affordable house soon!
Private developers ask for equality
 
“When PR1MA Corporation is able to get government land at nominal to 'zero' cost and exempted from a whole raft of conditions normally imposed on private developers, such as the requirement to build low-cost housing, allocation for Bumiputera units at a particular discount, provision of infrastructure and amenities and possible waiver or reduction in capital contribution to utility companies, it has major cost savings that enable PR1MA to supply units at lower than market price,” noted Yam.

“This would render market pricing and products of private developers uncompetitive.”
Farah Wahida, Editor of PropertyGuru, wrote this story. To contact her about this or other stories email farahwahida@propertyguru.com.my
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this is so boleh...

other than the bumi allocs cum discount, isn't it the case that the other condiitons imposed weren't there before but been there for some years and now developers cry, want to pass these costs back to gomen?

no chance la... bankrupt gomen after so much cows, condos, jets and subs has no more money to pay for all that, has been passing on all kinds of costs to anyone who can pass it back to consumers. wait till they remove more subsidies and impost gst. see if u still have enuf money to buy props or not. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 2 2013, 04:45 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 3 2013, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(stanicmail @ Apr 3 2013, 02:42 PM)
bro, PR1MA home cant rent la..

http://www.pr1ma.my/en/eligibility.html

"PR1MA homes must be owner occupied."
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u seriously think so?

wat's so special about pr1ma? low cost flats bot left right and center by cronies and wealthy ones - bums and non-bums, foreigners.

did u not read of the story of a sri lankan coming to kl to collect rent every 3 months for 15 (or was it 25?) units of those low cost apts supposedly reserved for poor mysians?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 3 2013, 06:43 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 3 2013, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Apr 3 2013, 07:07 PM)
It's is what it is, a story.

A Sri lankan cannot buy low cost houses because he is a foreigner. State can't give consent.
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good 4 u if u think so.
AVFAN
post Apr 4 2013, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Apr 4 2013, 07:53 AM)
If you say some undeclared local rich guy slipping the net I might believe you, but foreigners, no...
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foreigners can become bums, marry bums, use bum names, etc. dun forget some lowcost units are non-bum allocated, can be sold too, and there are auctions, etc. i've been to a seminar to learn how u can buy and invest into these units, so never say never! tis is boland, remember?

i will not say more on tis, so believe wat u want, that's ok. after all, in boland, it's all about how to "go about things", isn't it?
AVFAN
post Apr 4 2013, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Apr 4 2013, 11:03 AM)
Some things are more important than property prices. smile.gif

absolutely.

if u r true mysian, better prices (for houses and cars, at least) crash for the 95% mysians rather then upupup for the 5%.

in the unlikley event (so they say) of a pr win for putrajaya, the monopolies for land, props and car imports will be pressured. so, there shud b a price correction since the corruption, leakage, patronage and wastage will be reduced - in theory.

we'll see about that since it is the 1st time we get a shot at an alternative scenario.
QUOTE
Monopolies to suffer in the event of unlikely Pakatan win, says Maybank
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...n-says-maybank/


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 4 2013, 06:52 PM

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