V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...
V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...
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Mar 15 2013, 08:52 PM
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#1
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For high end stagnate and hopefully minor correction...but maybe a big correction, who knows?
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Mar 17 2013, 04:48 PM
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#2
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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 17 2013, 03:12 PM) Yea... I think you better ask your lawyer friend when in malaysia history got property bubble.... Just because it never happened before doesn't mean that it wouldn't happen.Well, given the benefit of doubt... if there is really bubble happening in the past, did the price recover after that? Key word is location... for good location I doubt it will drop to half of that value... Cyprus is not malaysia... who knows ppl in msia damn rich with lots of savings... even if the price drop in half... ppl will just keep... Never say never... but I doubt property in msia will be hit hard... even in 1997... the property price has already recovered and is on positive earning region... Just ask the Americans during '07. They probably asked the same question just before the prices collapsed. I agree that location is key. But during a downturn all props drop, just a matter of much only. But if there is a bubble (which I think there is...) and it pops...the question would be how severe and how bad. |
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Mar 17 2013, 04:51 PM
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#3
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QUOTE(hazairi @ Mar 17 2013, 03:17 PM) Our household debt is at it's highest and one of the highest in the world (if compare to disposable income). BNM won't increase because the Feds won't increase and more importantly, the Chinese won't increase the value of their yuan....When BNM increase interest rates, then we can see many lelongs.. While sticking the fact that unlike but not impossible principle, right now the world is racing to the bottom in terms of money printing and interest setting... If BNM increases the interest rate above inflation rate, I wouldn't even bother investing and put everything into FD...no need headache.... |
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Mar 18 2013, 08:02 AM
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#4
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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 17 2013, 10:07 PM) ok la...when i read the reply...didn't really answer my question...but looks like your lawyer friend trying to imply that the property bubble is happening now, but did not happen in the past at all... well, until it burst... we won't really know if this is a bubble or not... But my question is this, should the worst occurs and we experience what the Americans experience during the '08, even thou you have holding power but your props are 30-40 percent underwater, how long must you wait for the prices to even return to the level you bought, much less increase, if it ever does.my main point here is if you can buy and hold over the years...long term... bubble or no bubble...it should be alright as the price sure UP... when you buy the property at the right location... good points for discussion anyway...i'll try to open my eyes more for the questions you posted below...still haven't really observed much Bank Lelong signs around and For sale, there's always the subsale going on... For example, some houses in the us never went back to the level it was first sold during the bubble. |
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Mar 18 2013, 10:48 AM
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#5
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QUOTE(KLsooner @ Mar 18 2013, 10:45 AM) There are many deep pocket investors out of your imagination. I recently viewed a few "brand new" condo unit (out of 30+), with electric wire still hanging on the ceiling, but the condo had been VP and tenanted for more than 6 years. Sure.But how many of them are willing to wait, and wait for how long? It is still unproductive asset that produces nothing you know. That money tied into that asset could have been placed elsewhere more productive. You can't live in more than 1 prop in 1 time no matter what. What's the point waiting when the train don't seem to be coming? |
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Mar 18 2013, 11:08 AM
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#6
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QUOTE(ay@m @ Mar 18 2013, 09:56 AM) good point, i have also think of that before... I agree with you that our banks are far more cautious compared to the Americans prior to '08.if you look at US case...it is worse as any ah beng, ah kow, muthu and ahmad can get loan...that is really a big bubble happening cause the buyer's financial is not stable at all... but on the other hand, the banks here at least are not giving free money away.... in fact yesterday, i just heard from an agent that there are loans getting rejected...well...i don't know if the agents are telling the truth or not but i don't see any reason why the agent want to lie to me about this... so in my opinion, we can't compare this to the US case...US ppl not much savings...but in Malaysia, lots of ppl got savings and backup... maybe not all but i'm sure we're better off than US.... until that happens in Malaysia, i mean about the dubious loans scheme to anyone...i won't compare this to US... but good point brought up by you to take note of... But remember also that the vast majority of our countrymen earns why less per income per capita compared to the Americans, and the personal debt levels of Malaysians are also not low. |
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Mar 18 2013, 09:23 PM
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#7
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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 18 2013, 04:31 PM) That's the problem now, when government spoon feed something cheap, but people not interested. It is not that it is cheap.Maybe the new launch by developer are too tempted, nice concept, nice facilities, nice showroom. It is the requirements to stay in and non transfer for 10 years that kept most at bay. There are plenty that will buy it so that they can stay. |
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Mar 18 2013, 09:26 PM
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#8
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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 18 2013, 05:43 PM) boss, your calculation is true IF there's a downturn. Provided you could time it perfectly and sell your prop before the downturn..alternatively, let's assume there's a 5% net yield out there. if the guy bought it immediately before the downturn, do not forget to factor in the yield he would be getting from now till the downturn. please also do not forget the potential cap app before the downturn. if it's for own stay, please do not forget the $$$ he would have saved from paying rental to their present landlord. guess the debate is still on when the downturn would strike and how severe. |
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Mar 19 2013, 01:45 PM
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#9
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Mar 19 2013, 01:46 PM
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#10
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Mar 19 2013, 05:03 PM
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#11
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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 19 2013, 03:14 PM) Mr Lawyer, That's the different you and me, I'll never ask how much money require for children education, bcos I already got it. I'll never ask which location I afford to stay, bcos I can almost choose any location in klang valley for own stay. You got the money...good for you... and you can stay wherever in Klang Valley......oh well done, so you now want me to give you a gold star izzit? 'Si' or 'not Si', I know better Okaylah, since you want it, let me pat your head....yeahlah, boi boi panailah, very pandai....happy now? But seriously, tell me this, why despite all your "wealth" you sound like needy, whiny teenager with nothing to do seeking approval from strangers in this forum, really? You so emotionally really need to show people so you taikor in order for other people to tell, yeah, I know better. Do you REALLY need to tell some random stranger in a forum that you are THAT successful, ah, Mr Zuiko? |
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Mar 19 2013, 05:17 PM
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#12
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QUOTE(torkl @ Mar 19 2013, 05:07 PM) I am sure situation like this won't happen in Malaysia one right? |
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Mar 19 2013, 05:18 PM
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#13
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Mar 19 2013, 05:35 PM
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#14
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QUOTE(minoxidil_trade @ Mar 19 2013, 05:31 PM) then that's good. Guys, this will explain well, that he really can afford the education, and investment in any places. Oil and gas salary really makes a big different in any of the world. But factory based are going down, no matters which party you vote. If he works in oil and gas, that's one thing.Telling other people to plunge headfirst into props without even looking into the pool, that's another. Sure, maybe he can grow money. Of course, provided HIS money onlylor. |
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Mar 19 2013, 08:00 PM
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#15
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QUOTE(minoxidil_trade @ Mar 19 2013, 05:51 PM) You have your point. No everyone can be as high income as him, but back to the same point, this is how he think because he have the cash. Unfortunately for me, I have make the wrong option and this is what I get. That's why they said, rich are likely to mix with the rich, because they are from the same pool. Bah, don't you know EVERYONE has a high income in the Internet? Everyone makes money, everyone's a genius.... |
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Mar 20 2013, 10:25 AM
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#16
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QUOTE(cranx @ Mar 19 2013, 08:13 PM) I believe to ensure the bubble wont pop we need the following conditions. 1) new launch buyers mostly are own stay buyers with good income1) new launch buyers mostly are own stay buyers with good income 2) large pool of tenants with the ability to pay high rent 3) low interest rates Question would be, is there a shortage of props in Malaysia...? 90% of household income in Malaysia is RM5000K and below. Make that of what you will 2) large pool of tenants with the ability to pay high rent I myself are having difficulty finding new launches lately and rental yield that could give at least 5% return and cover both instalment and maintenance fees... 3) low interest rates But for how long....? In the short term, yes.... |
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Mar 21 2013, 01:12 PM
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#17
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Mar 21 2013, 01:13 PM
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#18
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Mar 21 2013, 01:14 PM
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#19
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Mar 21 2013, 01:16 PM
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#20
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QUOTE(prody @ Mar 21 2013, 12:37 PM) Well, at least our Zeti is smarter that than that Greenspan.... |
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