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 AS1M/ASM/ASW2020/ASN/ASB and other PNB funds V3, lending your money to the government

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wil-i-am
post Aug 28 2013, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(hyelbaine @ Aug 28 2013, 11:50 AM)
Personally I doubt that they'll do that. Unlike PNB's variable priced funds, its fixed priced funds do not charge any sales charges which means that the management fees are its only income. Nothing is free in this world unfortunately tongue.gif hehehe
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I beg to differ.....
ASNB can impose up to 1% management fees based on NAV for ASB
In fact, they impose 0.35% only on ASB for FYE 2012
D balance (0.65%) goes to available profits for distribution
Holders can xpect slightly more dividend smile.gif
cckkpr
post Aug 28 2013, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(backspace66 @ Aug 28 2013, 09:17 AM)
should be at least 6.7%
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It could be below 6% this year as they dont have the buffer like the others. Last year was special due to election.

Now, 1 M sold out date, yang baru ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES!
lucifah
post Aug 28 2013, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(cckkpr @ Aug 28 2013, 03:44 PM)
Now, 1 M sold out date, yang baru ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES!
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what is that...?
davinz18
post Aug 28 2013, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(smartinvestor01 @ Aug 28 2013, 12:06 PM)
yape, well, i have the same doubt, but i dont really care how they do it as long as they managed to give me the returns that i expected every year..  icon_idea.gif
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I agreed. They give me min 6sen return every year, I'm happy smile.gif
smartinvestor01
post Aug 28 2013, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(cckkpr @ Aug 28 2013, 03:44 PM)
It could be below 6% this year as they dont have the buffer like the others. Last year was special due to election.

Now, 1 M sold out date, yang baru ENDLESS POSSIBILITIES!
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Hopefully new fixed price unit trust to be launched..haha....

Come out with the Amanah Saham 1Mission also never mind.. blush.gif
davinz18
post Aug 28 2013, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(smartinvestor01 @ Aug 28 2013, 03:55 PM)
Hopefully new fixed price unit trust to be launched..haha....

Come out with the Amanah Saham 1Mission also never mind..  blush.gif
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I also hope that would happen soon.

Any name also can, main point I can invest in it (fixed price fund only) drool.gif
wil-i-am
post Aug 28 2013, 04:13 PM

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[quote=cckkpr,Aug 28 2013, 03:44 PM]
It could be below 6% this year as they dont have the buffer like the others. Last year was special due to election.

I beg to differ
They c/f RM146 mil from Yr 2012 to dis yr
If RM146 mil is not a buffer, m speechless rclxub.gif
Take a look @ Notes 10 of their AR
http://www.asnb.com.my/Laporan%20AS1M%2030%20Sept%202012.pdf



wil-i-am
post Aug 28 2013, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(smartinvestor01 @ Aug 28 2013, 03:55 PM)
Hopefully new fixed price unit trust to be launched..haha....

Come out with the Amanah Saham 1Mission also never mind..  blush.gif
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Y dun u b our Leader n propose to ASNB for new fixed price UT? icon_idea.gif
cckkpr
post Aug 28 2013, 04:23 PM

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[quote=wil-i-am,Aug 28 2013, 04:13 PM]
[quote=cckkpr,Aug 28 2013, 03:44 PM]
It could be below 6% this year as they dont have the buffer like the others. Last year was special due to election.

I beg to differ
They c/f RM146 mil from Yr 2012 to dis yr
If RM146 mil is not a buffer, m speechless rclxub.gif
Take a look @ Notes 10 of their AR
http://www.asnb.com.my/Laporan%20AS1M%2030%20Sept%202012.pdf
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[/quote]

There are over 8 billion units and is this "buffer" enough. Maybe just enough to extract the last mile.
wil-i-am
post Aug 28 2013, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(cckkpr @ Aug 28 2013, 04:23 PM)
There are over 8 billion units and is this "buffer" enough. Maybe just enough to extract the last mile.
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Could u enlighten every1 here on the facts n figures?
Which specific funds when u mention "they dont have the buffer like the others"
hyelbaine
post Aug 28 2013, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(davinz18 @ Aug 28 2013, 04:04 PM)
I also hope that would happen soon.

Any name also can, main point I can invest in it (fixed price fund only)  drool.gif
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I'm not one to bursts everyone hopes but I kinda have a rough idea as to why SC would shoot down the idea. It is safe to say that all of PNB's fixed priced funds easily accounts for a large majority of the local stock market. If one is to assume that these funds make up say 1/4 of the entire market capitalization, any "run" on PNB where its investors decide to redeem their units would be catastrophic to the stock market.

Remember that these fixed priced funds are pegged at RM1 regardless of its actual NAV. Even if the NAV for these funds are MYR0.70, PNB still has to honor the RM0.30 difference by whatever means necessary, including liquidating its equity securities at fire-sale prices. This has to be done as PNB honors redemption transactions on the spot or issues a cheque for large transactions pretty much on the same day of the transaction.

If you put yourself in the SC's shoes, you can see the systemic risks that these fixed priced fund can cause in the event of a severe economic slowdown and a run on PNB. Having ASB+AS1M+ASW+ASD+ASM wipe out a large chunk of market capitalization is not only bad for the stock market but creates after-effect shocks that can shake the entire economy. Panic is not good for anyone.

My assessment that PNB's fixed priced fund make up 1/4 of the entire market capitalization maybe on the low side. Judging how large ASB alone is, one could speculate that PNB's exposure to the local equity market might be higher especially since its true equal is only EPF because Khazanah is allowed to diversify its investment overseas and you can't do a "run" on Khazanah . One can't simply withdraw from their EPF or LTAT or KWAP but one can easliy do so from PNB.

That's how I come to the conclusion that SC will not sanction future fixed priced funds but....

There's nothing stopping anyone from hoping and wishing there is wink.gif

This post has been edited by hyelbaine: Aug 28 2013, 04:41 PM
MGM
post Aug 28 2013, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(hyelbaine @ Aug 28 2013, 04:30 PM)
I'm not one to bursts everyone hopes but I kinda have a rough idea as to why SC would shoot down the idea. It is safe to say that all of PNB's fixed priced funds easily accounts for a large majority of the local stock market. If one is to assume that these funds make up say 1/4 of the entire market capitalization, any "run" on PNB where its investors decide to redeem their units would be catastrophic to the stock market.

Remember that these fixed priced funds are pegged at RM1 regardless of its actual NAV. Even if the NAV for these funds are MYR0.70, PNB still has to honor the RM0.30 difference by whatever means necessary, including liquidating its equity securities at fire-sale prices. This has to be done as PNB honors redemption transactions on the spot or issues a cheque for large transactions pretty much on the same day of the transaction.

If you put yourself in the SC's shoes, you can see the systemic risks that these fixed priced fund can cause in the event of a severe economic slowdown and a run on PNB. Having ASB+AS1M+ASW+ASD+ASM wipe out a large chunk of market capitalization is not only bad for the stock market but creates after-effect shocks that can shake the entire economy.

My assessment that PNB's fixed priced fund make up 1/4 of the entire market capitalization maybe on the low side. Judging how large ASB alone is, one could speculate that PNB's exposure to the local equity market might be closer to 1/3.

That's how I come to the conclusion that SC will not sanction future fixed priced funds but....

There's nothing stopping anyone from hoping and wishing there is wink.gif
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in 2010 PNB's fund size was rm150bil and TabungHaji -rm28bil while in 2012 EPF was rm527bil. Total KLSE size I think is rm1000bil. Not all these funds are invested in KLSE, alot of them are in Govt bonds which is why the yearly dividend is quite low but consistent. Many investors take these funds as safe-haven and only cash out when necessary cos it is easy to sell but hard to buy (esp for the non-bumi).

This post has been edited by MGM: Aug 28 2013, 04:47 PM
davinz18
post Aug 28 2013, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(hyelbaine @ Aug 28 2013, 04:30 PM)
I'm not one to bursts everyone hopes but I kinda have a rough idea as to why SC would shoot down the idea. It is safe to say that all of PNB's fixed priced funds easily accounts for a large majority of the local stock market. If one is to assume that these funds make up say 1/4 of the entire market capitalization, any "run" on PNB where its investors decide to redeem their units would be catastrophic to the stock market.

Remember that these fixed priced funds are pegged at RM1 regardless of its actual NAV. Even if the NAV for these funds are MYR0.70, PNB still has to honor the RM0.30 difference by whatever means necessary, including liquidating its equity securities at fire-sale prices. This has to be done as PNB honors redemption transactions on the spot or issues a cheque for large transactions pretty much on the same day of the transaction.

If you put yourself in the SC's shoes, you can see the systemic risks that these fixed priced fund can cause in the event of a severe economic slowdown and a run on PNB. Having ASB+AS1M+ASW+ASD+ASM wipe out a large chunk of market capitalization is not only bad for the stock market but creates after-effect shocks that can shake the entire economy. Panic is not good for anyone.

My assessment that PNB's fixed priced fund make up 1/4 of the entire market capitalization maybe on the low side. Judging how large ASB alone is, one could speculate that PNB's exposure to the local equity market might be higher especially since its true equal is only EPF because Khazanah is allowed to diversify its investment overseas and you can't do a "run" on Khazanah . One can't simply withdraw from their EPF or LTAT or KWAP but one can easliy do so from PNB.

That's how I come to the conclusion that SC will not sanction future fixed priced funds but....

There's nothing stopping anyone from hoping and wishing there is wink.gif
*
You got some interesting point in your argument, I can't denied it. It's good information for all of us.

You & I are not the securities regulators, only SC are the one approved any new fund.

Anything can happen in BolehLand

We shall wait & see icon_rolleyes.gif
hyelbaine
post Aug 28 2013, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Aug 28 2013, 04:40 PM)
in 2010 PNB's fund size was rm150bil and TabungHaji -rm28bil while in 2012 EPF was rm527bil. Total KLSE size I think is rm1000bil. Not all these funds are invested in KLSE, alot of them are in Govt bonds which is why the yearly dividend is quite low but consistent.
*
Most of the fixed priced funds are classified (by PNB at least) as equity funds and judging from their respective annual reports, their exposure to equity is between 70% to 80% of the entire portfolio. Since PNB is not allowed to invest in overseas equities so pretty much their entire equity exposure is to the local market.

I know I'm being pessimistic but I can see the reasoning for why the SC frowns upon new fixed priced funds. The potential systemic risk of a "run" on PNB and its resulting effects on the stock market is just too large. Except for LTH, no other GLIC is as liquid and fixes its price like PNB. As you rightly pointed out, LTH represents a small footprint compared to PNB.

Mind you, even though the size of KLCI maybe a trillion ringgit, but remember that PNB invests the billions it has mostly in blue-chip stocks.

I'm no math guru but I assume that if you take out PNB's fixed priced funds out of the KLCI, you could just easily wipe out a couple of hundred points. Imagine the effects to the sentiment of the markets if that happens tongue.gif


MGM
post Aug 28 2013, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(hyelbaine @ Aug 28 2013, 04:54 PM)
Most of the fixed priced funds are classified (by PNB at least) as equity funds and judging from their respective annual reports, their exposure to equity is between 70% to 80% of the entire portfolio. Since PNB is not allowed to invest in overseas equities so pretty much their entire equity exposure is to the local market.

I know I'm being pessimistic but I can see the reasoning for why the SC frowns upon new fixed priced funds. The potential systemic risk of a "run" on PNB and its resulting effects on the stock market is just too large. Except for LTH, no other GLIC is as liquid and fixes its price like PNB. As you rightly pointed out, LTH represents a small footprint compared to PNB.

Mind you, even though the size of KLCI maybe a trillion ringgit, but remember that PNB invests the billions it has mostly in blue-chip stocks.

I'm no math guru but I assume that if you take out PNB's fixed priced funds out of the KLCI, you could just easily wipe out a couple of hundred points. Imagine the effects to the sentiment of the markets if that happens tongue.gif
*
Most PNB funds' investors are conservative and treat these funds as safe-haven cos markets can go rollercoaster (KLSE 300-1800) but dividend is still very consistent. I dont think there will be a run on PNB funds, not even in Aug1998 when Klse was at 303 or 877 in Dec2008, may be a trickle.

This post has been edited by MGM: Aug 28 2013, 05:36 PM
wil-i-am
post Aug 28 2013, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(hyelbaine @ Aug 28 2013, 04:30 PM)
I'm not one to bursts everyone hopes but I kinda have a rough idea as to why SC would shoot down the idea. It is safe to say that all of PNB's fixed priced funds easily accounts for a large majority of the local stock market. If one is to assume that these funds make up say 1/4 of the entire market capitalization, any "run" on PNB where its investors decide to redeem their units would be catastrophic to the stock market.

Remember that these fixed priced funds are pegged at RM1 regardless of its actual NAV. Even if the NAV for these funds are MYR0.70, PNB still has to honor the RM0.30 difference by whatever means necessary, including liquidating its equity securities at fire-sale prices. This has to be done as PNB honors redemption transactions on the spot or issues a cheque for large transactions pretty much on the same day of the transaction.

If you put yourself in the SC's shoes, you can see the systemic risks that these fixed priced fund can cause in the event of a severe economic slowdown and a run on PNB. Having ASB+AS1M+ASW+ASD+ASM wipe out a large chunk of market capitalization is not only bad for the stock market but creates after-effect shocks that can shake the entire economy. Panic is not good for anyone.

My assessment that PNB's fixed priced fund make up 1/4 of the entire market capitalization maybe on the low side. Judging how large ASB alone is, one could speculate that PNB's exposure to the local equity market might be higher especially since its true equal is only EPF because Khazanah is allowed to diversify its investment overseas and you can't do a "run" on Khazanah . One can't simply withdraw from their EPF or LTAT or KWAP but one can easliy do so from PNB.

That's how I come to the conclusion that SC will not sanction future fixed priced funds but....

There's nothing stopping anyone from hoping and wishing there is wink.gif
*
Good analysis
If u r holding 1 of the fixed price Funds now, will u liquidate if CI drop to 400 points?
wil-i-am
post Aug 28 2013, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Aug 28 2013, 04:40 PM)
in 2010 PNB's fund size was rm150bil and TabungHaji -rm28bil while in 2012 EPF was rm527bil. Total KLSE size I think is rm1000bil. Not all these funds are invested in KLSE, alot of them are in Govt bonds which is why the yearly dividend is quite low but consistent. Many investors take these funds as safe-haven and only cash out when necessary cos it is easy to sell but hard to buy (esp for the non-bumi).
*
Agreed as they need to diversify the assets into equity, bond, money market, cash n etc
MilesAndMore
post Aug 28 2013, 05:47 PM

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Well, 6.70% return this year for ASW2020.

http://www.asnb.com.my/news/ASW2020_2013BM.pdf

This post has been edited by MilesAndMore: Aug 28 2013, 05:47 PM
wil-i-am
post Aug 28 2013, 05:54 PM

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QUOTE(hyelbaine @ Aug 28 2013, 04:54 PM)
Most of the fixed priced funds are classified (by PNB at least) as equity funds and judging from their respective annual reports, their exposure to equity is between 70% to 80% of the entire portfolio. Since PNB is not allowed to invest in overseas equities so pretty much their entire equity exposure is to the local market.

I know I'm being pessimistic but I can see the reasoning for why the SC frowns upon new fixed priced funds. The potential systemic risk of a "run" on PNB and its resulting effects on the stock market is just too large. Except for LTH, no other GLIC is as liquid and fixes its price like PNB. As you rightly pointed out, LTH represents a small footprint compared to PNB.

Mind you, even though the size of KLCI maybe a trillion ringgit, but remember that PNB invests the billions it has mostly in blue-chip stocks.

I'm no math guru but I assume that if you take out PNB's fixed priced funds out of the KLCI, you could just easily wipe out a couple of hundred points. Imagine the effects to the sentiment of the markets if that happens tongue.gif
*
Yo analysis makes sense
But u forget 1 point
ASNB is 100% owned by PNB
Lets say CI drop to 200 points n 90% unit holders perform redemption
By right, ASNB must sell existing equity, bond n etc to meet redemption call
PNB can trigger 'Inter-Co Loan' to ASNB to solve this big headache, if any
icon_idea.gif

lucifah
post Aug 28 2013, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Aug 28 2013, 05:42 PM)
Good analysis
If u r holding 1 of the fixed price Funds now, will u liquidate if CI drop to 400 points?
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if there is no need for cash, why the rush?

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