ok.. i see puchong has potential, but whether it can keep up with subang and sunway or not i m not sure.. maybe by the time it reaches like subang today's level, subang had took off to a different level again..

anyway.. read somewhere the KV center gravity is now shifted from PJ to kinrara army camp due to much development activity down south especially cyber puchong serdang subang shahalam cheras balakong kajang semenyih and maybe nilai.. puchong to bj corridor still remain my top pick..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Apr 15 2012, 05:52 PM

not far at all.. once u pass by kinrara and enter alam sutera, thats KL liao..

NOT AGREED. THE DEVELOPER OF MK TOOK MORE THAN 10 YEARS TO PROMOTE MK TO EXPATS AND ALSO LOCAL, AND THIS WAS NOT EASY. ALSO, MK STILL IS THE BEST WITH INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS NEARBY. NOW MK IS NOT ONLY FOR FOREIGNERS BUT ALSO A LOT OF LOCAL RICHS.

THE MK STATUS COULD BE IMPROVED TO ANOTHER LEVEL IF A MRT STATION TO BE LOCATED NEARBY THERE. IN NEAR FUTURE, YOU WILL SEE THE MK-SEGAMBUT-DUTAMAS WILL BE CLUSTERED TOGETHER AS A VERY HIGH-DENSITY AREA. THIS WILL CREATE MORE BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE COMMERCIAL CENTRES NEARBY.

COMPARED TO KLCC, MK IS STILL LOOKED GREEN AND GOT HOME FEELING. LOL

NOW A LOT OF RICH MIDDLE EAST FRIENDS ARE STAYING IN MK TOO. ;0

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 15 2012, 06:12 PM

No la..hahaha....coz my keyboard are capped lol

there are 3 MRT lines in the pipeline .. 1 of the line which is called KL circular line likely will cater for MK but not the current on going line..
until then, MK will not hav MRT for the next few years but the potential is there..

actually sj/usj is jammer/farrer...

Lol "our property market", you do whatever you have to do to protect your rice bowl, but we shall refrain from personal attack. We are all educated grown ups, aren't we? As I said I would talk up the market as well if I was in the housing industry.

Prices won't fall to 1990 level, a correction down to 2009 level might be a more likely scenario. Some suggest after the federal election the property market would correct, but it doesn't make sense. If BN losses the coming election, they may purposely crash the stock/property markets to make the PR government looks bad, this sounds possible but I doubt BN has the capabilities to manipulate the markets in the long run (4-5 years term before the next election). Don't forget EPF or 1Malaysia fund etc. own a high percentage of KLSE stocks, who controls these funds, BN cronies! So they can manipulate the stock market. It seems like they are bidding up the KLCI now prior to the federal election to make BN looks good. Free market is dead decades ago. When economy turns sour, who will the people blame? No one else but the government.

Timing wise, if the home loan approval/amount continues to shrink for at least 6 months, the housing market shall be heading for a correction. It seems like bolehland has reached debt saturation, it shouldn't be too far away. Cash buyers is a myth, they can't prop up the market as a whole.

I dont think will drop to 2009 levels,that's a 50% drop lah.

Even in 1997 crisis can't find 50% jual murah.

why 2009 level? any data or study to support your claim? that will be 50% down from current level
how BN can purposely crash the market?
so what it has got to do with EPF? how EPF and 1Malaysia fund relate to property market?
any proof to support BN using this fund to push KLCI?

daigor.. seems you know a lot of things.. please advise

Hi - why is 13 A not a good number? Developer gives specific discounts because it is not 8A, 18A, 28A or 88A? Even if you are right, can the discount be as much 20%? Regardless if the default party is foreigner or local, we have a default - which I cant help but think
a - These units were put on the market for a considerable time, but was not able to fetch the desired value
b - They are not leased out of even if they were, not enough to cover the mortgage (interest plus capital). As a result owner had to default on the payments
c - Why these failed auctions concerns me? Well, simply because i have the view that they will affect sentiment. The guys who purchased it at launch, there will be a portion whom are flippers. Seeing how auctioned units like Troika and Avare failed, they may create a selling frenzy, as currently these units are negative carry (the longer they hold on, the more losses they will incur as long as there is no capital appreciation).
From what i am aware, the owner paid significantly more than what this unit is currently auctioning for and frankly it is not unsold for no reason (assuming the upcoming auction for this unit meets the Reserve price, we are talking about 30% losses; pity the bank....) . And yes, the previous owner is Hongkonger. I think it is criminal for our governing body to allow this to happen. To allow developers in manipulating the property market with their 0 repayment 0 downpayment schemes, creating the bubble which to me has already burst in KLCC.
If the most prime of areas is under such severe pressure, i cant imagine what that means for less desirable locations. That said, it would be a good test to see which area can holds up. I suspect this would be places locals can call home - Ecopark? Mont Kiara? Bangsar?

Anything be it Tulips, gold, stocks, properties, as long as speculators are in the market, will inevitably be expose to cycles. I have the view that the peak of the cycle is now behind us. This time the Chinese and the Middle Eastern, whom have their respective issues closer to home, will not be coming to prop up Bolehland. A bursting bubble may not be catastrophic... infact i do not think this would be the case BUT Bank Negara need to act quickly to stop it from getting worst.
It takes more than 1 data point to conclude, but it would be too lengthy an essay if we were to go though all the factors.. There are some blogs which i find extremely helpful; Agent's Diary is one.

enforce 10% downpayment as compulsary, no discount, scrap DIBS..
if found project giving discount, bank loan to be based on after discount value..

rising OPR is the most effective way but beside housing loan, it will also affect hire purchase and other business loan which BNM has to be cautious with.. not till the extend like how US subprime happen when ppl not able to service their loan due to high interest.. gradual OPR increase might cool down the market..

cheap financing is always the main fuel driving the price of assets and commodities..

incr opr will kill d rakyat n foreginer will use msia as hedge fund. deposit here n borrow at their home country. end up $ flow out of country.
when whole wolrd low int% msia can't do it our own way.

true.. thats y the world is in high inflation now.. everyone keep on borrowing to fuel the economy, which is very toxic..
when debt rises, borrow again.. endless borrowing and currency devalue even further.. rich will get richer, salary worker get poorer everyday.. thus, cheap financing comes with a "price"

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Apr 15 2012, 11:12 PM

13 is unlucky number for some ppl especially westerner.
some ppl may think 13A is 14.

yes, locals can enjoy up to 40% discount vs foreigner. especialy those buy many units and not good units.
this is true case for my klcc condo.
i hv the actual transacted price of foreigner vs locals of my condo.

not everywhere is experiencing a 50% or 100% increase in price.
50% drop is possible, prices going back to 2009 level is also possible.
100% increase from the current price is also possible.

fact is we can't really predict what is going to happen next.
but lets be realistic, for 1000sf at RM500k is too cheap for a condo, the average value should hover around RM1000psf.

you mean to say if a foreigner wants to buy a property now in KLCC, they are paying 40% more because their RM is not the same as local RM? In any case isn't auction price transparent enough and stand as the 'real' value and not the silly asking price i notice of the properties listed in the classified of local newspaper.

That said there is no one unit which will be exactly the same even if its in the same building. However, I will be very worried if I am a foreigner who bought at 40% more, and now units in the building are auctioned at 30% lower than where i bought it at. I suppose Europeans, Chinese, Middle Easterns, americans and locals alike are waiting for another bull run in property?

If the world is powered like a 747, on 4 engine, it would be Japan, US, China (BRICs) and Europe. Anyone seeing any bright spots? BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India and China.. B is not BOLEHLAND

One more South Africa in Brics

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Added on April 16, 2012, 12:11 am13A floor = 14th floor (Lift / Highrise level)
No. 13A = No.15 (House no), No11A = No. 13

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Apr 16 2012, 12:12 AM

well, i am not an expert in property and is not in the business of investing in it to make money either. Though i am involve in plenty of speculation nonetheless... The first step is to identify and recognize the issue. Here i see the main risk as twofold - political and the banking system. Politically, BNM, although Zeti, well regarded in the region as independent, will still be subjected to the ruling party's agenda. Very much like China, there will be widespread unrest, if property price were to continue the appreciation trajectory of 2005-20010; thus with the crisis in Europe and the monetary tightening measures in China, coupled with outright regulation on property, pxs came off and is in check. The Chinese took two very important measures to stir the market lower (the measure were introduced before but the timing of the cooling actually coincides with the default of greece - The Communist party will claim full credit nonetheless), one direct regulation on property ownership and restrict lending on 2nd or 3rd property -think foreigners are shut out of local financing also.. cant be too sure of the details... Second, they turn the tap off for developers, directing the banks to NOT lend to developers. Well, but frankly we can only control supply side and liquidity but DEMAND is stochastic. ie, if SNP breaks 2008 high, or China A shares sky rocket 200%, be sure that DEMAND will pick up regardless. on the flipside, if Italy or Spains next to blow up.. more measures on property may be not the right Medicine.

For the banking system, the risk is if banks takes took large a hit on the loan portfolio which ultimately will than force BNM to bail them out. Local banks have transform their books from predominantly corporate to household loans.. the rapid increase in household debt is unprecedented (this is consistent with many developing countries but Msia is up there on the most impressive year on year increase). The good news is the country treasury is abundance, and if theres a need for bail out, it should still be manageable if its not widespread. This time unlike 1997, the trigger will not be corporate debt defaulting, but household.

If we could turn back time, with the benefit of hindsight, the following can work

A - We want inflow, and we applaud the marketing (Najib and his crew has been infront of the foreign investors since 2009 when they start communicating their willingness for a strong ringgit - which most asian countries try to stir away as a stronger local currency will hurt exports) to bring in more capital inflows . But if this is flowing into property and unintentional consequences, than intervention is needed. We can slap duty/ tax on purchase of sales within x amount of time. ie if sold within 2 yrs, the stamp duty even for the seller would be x %, if 3 yrs y% etc.

B - More Regulations governing banks lending to developers or household on properties not finished yet. Stop financing 5% down payment with 0% financing during construction period programmes.

C - If you want to help young middle class, make it official instead of doing it at the developer level. Create a government body which can make up the difference for the required 30% downpayment. Ie, the govenrnment body pays 25%, and the couple pays 5%. For the 25%, the couple will have to pay a set interest rate determined by the government body. Thus the bank will be safeguarded and the government takes the first 25% hit, if the property falls in value.

These are some to share for now... notice i said if we can turn back time.. at the moment i think more careful consideration is needed before more measures are implemented. The bubble has already burst. I suspect if anything, there will be more curbs post election as policymakers for sure is taking into account that the election is a 'risk point'.

Deep Value,please continue commenting on LYN forum. Best comments on the forum by far. V informative n great depth.
Wow!


This post has been edited by Bahkuteh: Apr 16 2012, 03:47 AM

A bit contradictory. If the bubble already burst, why do we need more curbs? Maybe you meant the bubble has already formed, waiting to burst?