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 Are property prices going to up further? V4, nothing's gonna stop us now

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cranx
post Dec 5 2011, 08:22 PM

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The bears here, those hopping for price to drop, i say a lot of them are first time buyer/ have not own any properties yet.

I am wondering for the ones optimistic for the future of Malaysian properties, are you still in buy buy buy mode?
is there still a lot of room for appreciation at current price point? do you choose landed only with the impending severe over supply of condominiums?
if ever there is a drop in high rise prices, do you think it will affect landed as well?
cranx
post Dec 22 2011, 11:17 PM

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http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...153455/Article/


Malaysian property market to slow down next year

22nd December 2011


QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian property market is likely to see a gradual slowdown next year, taking into consideration the uncertainty in the global economic situation.

President of Fiabci Malaysia, Yeow Thit Sang, said the high end residential units were already seeing a slowdown both in pricing and the take-up rate.

"There are less expatriates from multinational companies (MNCs) coming here and rentals with a yield of between six and eight per cent are no longer achievable.

"Investors in these units will have to wait longer to realise their investment. The slowdown in global economy is definitely affecting the high-end property market," he told Bernama in an interview recently.

He also saw a fallout for office space next year, saying the category was already overbuilt and the overhang felt in the market with rental falling and a slow take-up rate.

However, there is a huge demand for low medium and medium cost residential units below RM300,000 with most developers building high-end units to cash in on the good time.

"The government's effort in building such units in joint venture with developers will help the low income earners to own affordable homes.

"Building such units will not be fast enough to relieve the pent up demand over the last five years," he added. Meanwhile, Zerin Properties' Chief Executive Officer, Previndran Singhe,said the slowdown in the property market would only last in the first quarter next year and the industry will be stable afterwards. "Prices will remain stable, with asking prices, not values, becoming more reasonable as owners check their values to real pricing. "At present, sentiment is down due to the eurozone financial crisis and theUS double dip fears, which has been faring for a long time, but I think we are more Asia focused," he told Bernama. If and when China goes on reverse gear, then there would have to be concerns in the market, otherwise, barring external shocks, the industry should have a stable year next year, he said. Contrary to common belief and expectations, the property market has registered 214,764 transactions worth RM64.75 billion within the first half of2011. Against the first half of 2010, the volume and value of transactions recorded double digit growth of 18.1 per cent and 29.7 per cent respectively. -- BERNAMA

Read more: Malaysian property market to slow down next year http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM.../#ixzz1hHELmwAA
This post has been edited by cranx: Dec 22 2011, 11:18 PM
cranx
post Dec 28 2011, 05:28 PM

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Actually, the population increase in KV or Penang is not drastic, rental as well has been stagnant for a long time even when the property price shoot up incredibly.

Demand came

From the rich who is trying to preserve the value of their ringgit. (inflation hedge)
From the youngsters who can't afford but buying on DIBS predicting their own income will double within 3 years.
From the parents who buy for their next generation with the fear that if they dont buy now, their kids will never be able to afford one.

But mainly it is the perception that property is a sure fire gamble, speculators who buy up multiple units to flip upon completion. (which is why rental yield became irrelevant) We will see how cash rich are these bunch of people to serve the monthly repayment when the market is saturated with completed units. If, just a mere 10% of them is unable to cope instantly a domino effect will come crashing down.

cranx
post Feb 9 2012, 03:20 AM

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not sure whether this will spur another round of price surge from regional investors? hmm.gif

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-real...=MW_latest_news

Asia real-estate bull turns bearish
IP Global chief says this crisis not like last one


QUOTE
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Asia’s gradually cooling property markets aren’t the great buys they once were, according to one expert in the region, who says better bargains can be found in the depressed markets in the West.

Tim Murphy, the Hong Kong-based chief executive officer of property advisory group IP Global, says he’s telling his clients to look more towards New York and San Francisco for deals, although London also ranks well in terms of rental yield in some projects.
Tim Murphy, CEO of Hong Kong-based property-advisory firm IP Global.

Back home in Asia, the only market he likes is Malaysia, where average prices in its big cities are about one-tenth of those in Hong Kong, while its commodity-backed economy should outperform its export-dependent regional rivals.

What’s changed? Murphy says the ongoing debate in Asia during the current soft patch is being driven by inflation concerns that were absent during previous periods of economic weakness.

Specifically, he sees a “role reversal” from the regional crisis that unfolded in 1997, as fresh barriers to foreign investment and speculative activity are now enacted across many parts of Asia, while hard-hit cities in the West are offering tax breaks and other concessions as incentives to invest.

Today, governments around the region, and particularly in China, are wary that too much liquidity could stoke a U.S.-style housing bubble and inflict long-term damage upon the economy, he said.

“Singapore and Hong Kong are two of the freest economies in the world, yet you pay more in stamp duties [real-estate transaction taxes] now than you would in London, because they are very worried about the markets continuing to overheat,” Murphy said.

Singapore in December imposed a 10% tax on foreign individuals and companies buying residential properties, reportedly the first such move in 15 years targeted at overseas investors.

The moves are in stark contract to what unfolded during the regional financial crisis that unfolded in 1997, when capital flight led to a crash in Thailand’s currency and property markets, as well as a slow-but-steady decline in Hong Kong home values, which eventually fell by 70% before a recovery set in.

“We see what’s happening as a great chance for Asians to buy overseas at the moment,” Murphy said, adding that in December he opened an office in Shanghai to tap the growing interest among China’s newly wealthy for overseas homes.
In Asia, better to wait

However, he isn’t upbeat on markets that are leveraged to China, viewing Hong Kong and Singapore property as six months into a correction that could another six to 12 months.

Property markets in both cities are “shaky” when it comes to the share of income that households must shell out to meet monthly mortgage payments, Murphy said.

Meanwhile, home prices in China’s leading cities could slide for another two years, adding to five straight months of falling prices up to January, he said, advising investors to “steer clear.”

cranx
post Feb 10 2012, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(peet @ Feb 10 2012, 07:53 PM)
lol, u sound like a developer.

A waitress working in HK earns the equivalent of RM5,000 a month. Waitress in KL earns RM1,200 (Myanmar worker they pay 800-1,000).

When do you think KL will reach HK/BJ/Shanghai/Spore level of per capita income?  rclxms.gif
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Where do you get the data? Waitress in HK is not earning as much as RM5000 a month.
cranx
post Feb 13 2012, 09:07 PM

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Buying for own stay is no problem if you can afford it.
Cash rich people parking their money there and let the property rot is also not a problem.
It is the flippers/speculators which will be in trouble very soon.
cranx
post Feb 20 2012, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Feb 20 2012, 12:33 PM)
Taiwan ? Taiwan uses simplified Chinese ?

Property price comes down not by accident. It's due to consistent government effort and/or global recession. There is really not enough effort on the part of our government which can cause property price to come down. Global recession is left the only choice then.
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not exactly. if the bubble is hugely inflated, one day it will burst even without any intervention from the government. prices come crashing down.
mostly, government/central bank is there to implement certain measures preventing excessive speculation, provide a soft landing.
cranx
post Feb 20 2012, 07:59 PM

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http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...but-fear-bubble

QUOTE
Malaysians still keen on buying homes but fear bubble

By Yow Hong Chieh
February 20, 2012


KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 20 — Lack of affordability stemming from rising house prices continues to be the main concern of property buyers in Malaysia, a survey by a property group has found.

The online poll by iProperty, which owns Asia's largest network of property sites, found that 85.8 per cent of respondents thought the high cost of buying a home was the biggest concern facing the local property market. Errant developers and build quality was also an issue, with 57.2 per cent saying it was of “high concern”, with worries over home financing policies and interest rates coming in a close third at 53.6 per cent of those polled in the Asia Property Market Sentiment Report 2012. Only 31.4 per cent felt economic and political uncertainty would affect their decision to buy or invest in property in the coming year.

Despite this, Malaysians were bullish on the local property market and expect it to continue growing despite lingering doubts over the health of the global economy. Nearly 60 per cent said the market was holding up well despite the threat of a worldwide recession, compared to just 19 per cent who felt otherwise. Likewise, 55.6 per cent of those polled felt the current economic and political climate was conducive to investing in property, while 29.1 per cent did not.

“The majority of people are still confident that the property market will continue to grow... The love affair continues,” Shaun Di Gregario, chief executive of iProperty, told reporters here today. Interestingly almost an equal number do believe or fear that Malaysia is heading toward or on the cusp of a property bubble.”

At the same time, some 58 per cent of respondents said they were wary of the possibility that Malaysia was close to a property bubble, compared to 23.4 per cent who felt such an event was unlikely.

The survey nonetheless found that 62.3 per cent were keen on buying property in the next six to 12 months, with 71.3 per cent indicating a budget of under RM500,000.

Motivations for purchasing property were fairly evenly divided. About 40 per cent desired to own their own property, 31.3 per cent were looking for rental income investment and 28.2 per cent wished to buy property for resale — more than in any other country canvassed.

The poll found that a “surprising” 41.4 per cent owned two or more properties, second only to neighbouring Indonesia in the four-nation survey. Di Gregario attributed the findings to Malaysia's low mortgage rates, 100 per cent financing, stamp duty exemptions and long repayment periods of up to 30 years or until age 75.

A sizeable minority of Malaysians were also keen to invest in properties abroad, with Australia, Singapore, the UK and US being the most popular destinations. Nearly half (45.1 per cent) of them cited migration or retirement plans as the reason for buying overseas properties. Most, however, were not in a rush to do so, as 71.7 per cent admitted they did not plan to buy any properties outside of Malaysia for at least another one year.

A total of 8,499 respondents were polled from 29 November, 2011 and January 17, 2012 for the survey, which examined buyer sentiment in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Hong Kong.

cranx
post Feb 26 2012, 11:14 PM

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Thesedays even economy rice average rm5 to rm6. Say you skip breakfast, just lunch and dinner without drinks. Rm10 per day rm300 per month. Still it is very tight and better pray nothing out of the ordinary came up. Car broke down, saman, computer break down, tooth ache, friends wedding, farewell gift etc etc.
cranx
post Mar 2 2012, 10:12 PM

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it could play out as deflating the bubble OR bursting of bubble when hundreds of thousands of speculative condo units come on stream and buyer is no where to be found.
cranx
post Mar 5 2012, 01:26 PM

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danger signs of a soon to be abandoned project

http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1670768/+600
cranx
post Mar 8 2012, 08:48 AM

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very similar to our very own discussion of the local market, bubble talks in vancouver, canada.

user posted image

http://www.businessinsider.com/see-what-89...3#ixzz1oHMQibKN


cranx
post Mar 9 2012, 12:39 AM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ Mar 9 2012, 12:02 AM)
English please...
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malaysia property price is still way too low, need to increase another 50% to 100% from the current price.
cranx
post Mar 9 2012, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ Mar 9 2012, 01:37 AM)
Waaaa...
Means a condo that cost RM 350k - RM 600k should jump to RM 525k - RM 900k
And flat that cost about RM 100k should jump to RM 150k

Soon the entire rakyat will be a slave as a property renter
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Basically the article is saying our household income increase is more than the rate of property price increase.
Also, comparing to other regional countries, our property is the most affordable.

The price has to increase further in order to normalized this situation.
cranx
post Mar 9 2012, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Mar 9 2012, 09:26 PM)
good question bro.

anyway nowadays so many articles to justify the high prices and why people should keep on buying, sms also non-stop  cool2.gif
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Parties with vested interests getting panicky.
cranx
post Mar 10 2012, 04:05 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Mar 10 2012, 02:21 AM)
You guys have forgotten 1 important rule. When the buying stops so will the killing but in this case When the buying stops so will the building. Until the day i see ppl stop buying i don't think we are anywhere near bubble. It's up to you to judge from here onwards. Good Luck
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I believe what you meant is that bubble is still building up and long way to go before popping.
To say there is no bubble at all is kidding yourself.

It is no point arguing actually. For if you really believe in the fundamental of our economy, the country going towards high income nation, it is good to buy and continue buying as sound investment. And even better NOT to defend against the doom sayers. Join them and say the market is going down, good way of reducing your competitors mah! tongue.gif

Impressive rise of property prices over the past few years was due to 2 main culprit. Loose lending from the banks and developers selling at a premium while offering DIBS. Revised RPGT plays a role as well, somewhat. That is all.

In the long run of course prices go up, though what we are seeing right now is very dangerous. Consumer debt is at an all time high, and almost everyone (especially the very young ones) jump right into real estate which created a lot of demand, i do not know for sure it is the majority but A LOT of them has absolutely NO WAY of repaying the monthly installment. It doesn't help either when there is a group of people leverage to the max and buy up huge inventory to flip. (artificial demand).

*True Story: The seasoned investors are quietly exiting the market already, waiting for correction (crash) to come right back into the market. Below case took the limelight though with such major sell off.

http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2255629

cranx
post Mar 10 2012, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(SKfolk @ Mar 10 2012, 12:33 PM)
The property prise will not drop but maintain the same only worse come to worse. Propert prise is still low compare in worldwide. It still has room to increase just got to wait for the household income increase only.If other country increase we don increase we are obsolete.
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user posted image
cranx
post Mar 10 2012, 05:59 PM

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Read this research paper. Accurately depicting our current RE situation.

http://www.aseanvaluers.org/PDF/The%20Real...te%20Cycles.pdf
cranx
post Mar 11 2012, 01:01 AM

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More and more syok sendiri news by the 'experts'.. wink.gif

http://www.iproperty.com.my/news/5036/A-Th...ket-in-Malaysia

QUOTE
A Thriving Property Market in Malaysia
Mar 09, 2012

Kuala Lumpur, 9th March 2012 – Despite the economy uncertainty, the Euro crisis and slowing demands from Asia’s key trading partners, trends on the iProperty.com Malaysia website, the country’s No.1 property portal, revealed that Malaysians are unfazed by the economic cycle and continue to remain optimistic about the property market.

“Over the past two months, we have seen an influx in the number unique visitors and leads generated on our website for agents. Despite it being the festive season, these numbers has surged, breaking our previous records during a similar time frame in previous years.” said Shaun Di Gregorio, iProperty Group’s Chief Executive Officer

A survey finding released by the company recently, conducted across the group’s four key markets from November 2011 to January 2012, showed that while Malaysians were wary of a possible bubble, they were still optimistic about the property market. 62.3% of the respondents indicated that they were keen on investing in property within the next 6 to 12 months with a vast majority keen on landed property.

"We have also seen a 45% increase, that’s over 291,000 leads generated for our agents from the month of January to February alone. With such a high growth, we foresee that in the months to follow, this will increase tremendously. This double-digit growth certainly conveys that the Malaysian property market is headed for a strong growth and Malaysians are rapidly looking at purchasing or investing. It looks that despite the uncertainty about the market around the world, the Malaysian love affair for property continues,” said Di Gregorio

He attributed the high turnover in the number of leads generated as a testament to the company’s dedication to provide consumers with a one-stop platform to search for all things property related.

He added that in the month of February, more than 80% of visitors to the site searched for properties for sale and the top three areas were Puchong, Cheras and Setia Alam.

“With the emergence of the internet, the search for property has never been more refined. All our portals offer consumers the convenience of searching for properties based on their preference, location, budget and also size,” added Di Gregorio

Interestingly, this trend was also seen across our other portals in Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore. Each of these portals recorded a generated over 40% in leads. This is a key indication that the Asian property market is booming,” concluded Di Gregorio.

cranx
post Mar 14 2012, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(debtismoney @ Mar 14 2012, 05:59 PM)
Opps... am I teaching you?

BTW, my tax return last year touches 6 mil gross
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that is a lot of money.
other than gold, what else you invest? just gold?

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