A bit contradictory. If the bubble already burst, why do we need more curbs? Maybe you meant the bubble has already formed, waiting to burst?

well, i am not an expert in property and is not in the business of investing in it to make money either.  Though i am involve in plenty of speculation nonetheless...  The first step is to identify and recognize the issue.  Here i see the main risk as twofold - political and the banking system.  Politically, BNM, although Zeti, well regarded in the region as independent, will still be subjected to the ruling party's  agenda.  Very much like China, there will be widespread unrest, if property price were to continue the appreciation trajectory of 2005-20010;  thus with the crisis in Europe and the monetary tightening measures in China, coupled with outright regulation on property, pxs came off and is in check.  The Chinese took two very important measures to stir the market lower (the measure were introduced before but the timing of the cooling actually coincides with the default of greece - The Communist party will claim full credit nonetheless), one direct regulation on property ownership and restrict lending on 2nd or 3rd property -think foreigners are shut out of local financing also.. cant be too sure of the details... Second, they turn the tap off for developers, directing the banks to NOT lend to developers.  Well, but frankly we can only control supply side and liquidity but DEMAND is stochastic.  ie, if SNP breaks 2008 high, or China A shares sky rocket 200%, be sure that DEMAND will pick up regardless.  on the flipside, if Italy or Spains next to blow up.. more measures on property may be not the right Medicine. 

For the banking system, the risk is if banks takes took large a hit on the loan portfolio which ultimately will than force BNM to bail them out.  Local banks have transform their books from predominantly corporate to household loans..  the rapid increase in household debt is unprecedented (this is consistent with many developing countries but Msia is up there on the most impressive year on year increase).  The good news is the country treasury is abundance, and if theres a need for bail out, it should still be manageable if its not widespread.  This time unlike 1997, the trigger will not be corporate debt defaulting, but household. 

If we could turn back time, with the benefit of hindsight, the following can work

A - We want inflow, and we applaud the marketing (Najib and his crew has been infront of the foreign investors since 2009 when they start communicating their willingness for a strong ringgit - which most asian countries try to stir away as a stronger local currency will hurt exports) to bring in more capital inflows .  But if this is flowing into property and unintentional consequences, than intervention is needed.  We can slap duty/ tax on purchase of sales within x amount of time.  ie if sold within 2 yrs, the stamp duty even for the seller would be x %, if 3 yrs y% etc.

B - More Regulations governing banks lending to developers or household on properties not finished yet.  Stop financing 5% down payment with 0% financing during construction period programmes. 

C - If you want to help young middle class, make it official instead of doing it at the developer level.  Create a  government body which can make up the difference for the required 30% downpayment.  Ie, the govenrnment body pays 25%, and the couple pays 5%.  For the 25%, the couple will have to pay a set interest rate determined by the government body.  Thus the bank will be safeguarded and the government takes the first 25% hit, if the property falls in value.  

These are some to share for now...  notice i said if we can turn back time.. at the moment i think more careful consideration is needed before more measures are implemented.  The bubble has already burst.  I suspect if anything, there will be more curbs post election as policymakers for sure is taking into account that the election is a 'risk point'.

How to determine "burst"? it is very subjective too, I had said our mkt has experienced multiple "price correction" since 1997 (except 2010-2011), it just happen at different place, different mkt sector at different time. For one to wait for a real mkt collapse, IMHO it will only happen when it comes to mkt depression like wat happen in US in 1929. Are we heading to that? I dun think so. Even in 2011, I hv totally stop considering highrise as a good investment as I am quite sure the strata supply will reach the peak (over supply) by 2014, current number of strata property in KL is 303K unit, it will reach 750K-900K by 2015, which I think is too much unless we hv :-
1) Booming in city population to 2 mil (by 2015) Or
2) Booming in foreign workers (expat)like Singapore
3) Booming in Torism industry (which I think it's still possible but definitely not under the regime of BN hoodlum)

The above three are unlikely to happen

well, i am not an expert in property and is not in the business of investing in it to make money either.  Though i am involve in plenty of speculation nonetheless...  The first step is to identify and recognize the issue.  Here i see the main risk as twofold - political and the banking system.  Politically, BNM, although Zeti, well regarded in the region as independent, will still be subjected to the ruling party's  agenda.  Very much like China, there will be widespread unrest, if property price were to continue the appreciation trajectory of 2005-20010;  thus with the crisis in Europe and the monetary tightening measures in China, coupled with outright regulation on property, pxs came off and is in check.  The Chinese took two very important measures to stir the market lower (the measure were introduced before but the timing of the cooling actually coincides with the default of greece - The Communist party will claim full credit nonetheless), one direct regulation on property ownership and restrict lending on 2nd or 3rd property -think foreigners are shut out of local financing also.. cant be too sure of the details... Second, they turn the tap off for developers, directing the banks to NOT lend to developers.  Well, but frankly we can only control supply side and liquidity but DEMAND is stochastic.  ie, if SNP breaks 2008 high, or China A shares sky rocket 200%, be sure that DEMAND will pick up regardless.  on the flipside, if Italy or Spains next to blow up.. more measures on property may be not the right Medicine. 

For the banking system, the risk is if banks takes took large a hit on the loan portfolio which ultimately will than force BNM to bail them out.  Local banks have transform their books from predominantly corporate to household loans..  the rapid increase in household debt is unprecedented (this is consistent with many developing countries but Msia is up there on the most impressive year on year increase).  The good news is the country treasury is abundance, and if theres a need for bail out, it should still be manageable if its not widespread.  This time unlike 1997, the trigger will not be corporate debt defaulting, but household. 

If we could turn back time, with the benefit of hindsight, the following can work

A - We want inflow, and we applaud the marketing (Najib and his crew has been infront of the foreign investors since 2009 when they start communicating their willingness for a strong ringgit - which most asian countries try to stir away as a stronger local currency will hurt exports) to bring in more capital inflows .  But if this is flowing into property and unintentional consequences, than intervention is needed.  We can slap duty/ tax on purchase of sales within x amount of time.  ie if sold within 2 yrs, the stamp duty even for the seller would be x %, if 3 yrs y% etc.

B - More Regulations governing banks lending to developers or household on properties not finished yet.  Stop financing 5% down payment with 0% financing during construction period programmes. 

C - If you want to help young middle class, make it official instead of doing it at the developer level.  Create a  government body which can make up the difference for the required 30% downpayment.  Ie, the govenrnment body pays 25%, and the couple pays 5%.  For the 25%, the couple will have to pay a set interest rate determined by the government body.  Thus the bank will be safeguarded and the government takes the first 25% hit, if the property falls in value. 

These are some to share for now...  notice i said if we can turn back time.. at the moment i think more careful consideration is needed before more measures are implemented.  The bubble has already burst.  I suspect if anything, there will be more curbs post election as policymakers for sure is taking into account that the election is a 'risk point'.

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012...nt_15007548.htm

Beijing housing prices 21% down in Q1

"Prices for newly-built residential houses in Beijing averaged at 12,326 yuan ($1,948) per square meter in the first quarter, down 20.7 percent year-on-year, Shanghai Securities News reported on Monday.

As a sluggish scenario looms large in the coming months, discount sales became the first resort for developers to boost their market share. Eight out of the ten top house sellers in the first quarter slashed their prices, according to Chen.

Chen also predicted that the housing market would continue to fall lower and discount sales would also be inevitable in the months to come,

price-cuts would be the only way out for developers, who have been stuck between the pressure of capital turnover and the stubbornly high inventory of commercial houses, Chen added.
Residential housing sales dropped 14.2 percent year-on-year to 18,000 units, a record low since 2007."
Will Chinese investors keep buying property in bolehland while their housing bubble back home is bursting?

Q1 haven't finished already drop 21%.... 

Is property situation in China similar to Malaysia?
Doubt so as as there are plenty of speculator that goreng KL/PG property

If we could turn back time, with the benefit of hindsight, the following can work

A - We want inflow, and we applaud the marketing (Najib and his crew has been infront of the foreign investors since 2009 when they start communicating their willingness for a strong ringgit - which most asian countries try to stir away as a stronger local currency will hurt exports) to bring in more capital inflows .  But if this is flowing into property and unintentional consequences, than intervention is needed.  We can slap duty/ tax on purchase of sales within x amount of time.  ie if sold within 2 yrs, the stamp duty even for the seller would be x %, if 3 yrs y% etc.

B - More Regulations governing banks lending to developers or household on properties not finished yet.  Stop financing 5% down payment with 0% financing during construction period programmes. 

C - If you want to help young middle class, make it official instead of doing it at the developer level.  Create a  government body which can make up the difference for the required 30% downpayment.  Ie, the govenrnment body pays 25%, and the couple pays 5%.  For the 25%, the couple will have to pay a set interest rate determined by the government body.  Thus the bank will be safeguarded and the government takes the first 25% hit, if the property falls in value. 

These are some to share for now...  notice i said if we can turn back time.. at the moment i think more careful consideration is needed before more measures are implemented.  The bubble has already burst.  I suspect if anything, there will be more curbs post election as policymakers for sure is taking into account that the election is a 'risk point'.

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/59230?tid=8

http://mykampung.sinchew.com.my/node/187904?tid=5

http://mykampung.sinchew.com.my/node/187769?tid=6

recently so many article about prop expensive.. u think Barang Naik will scare the impact... to the GE.. or they will take action on it... studay carefully... a perfect storm.

INCREASING the floor price of residential property for foreign buyers from RM500,000 to RM1mil will be a positive development for the housing market, according to analysts and consultants. Click HERE to read more!

What say you?

I am very confused with the epf 2nd account, please help!

heard so many stories, i also don't who is right now.

1) can i withdraw all my 2nd account money? or is it dependent on the property i am buying, say 250k or 500k?

2) if i do withdraw all the money, will i get the money in my bank account? coz if i use own money 10%, very sakit. If can't get back the money, too risky?

coz rumours tell me i can't get the money directly, they said epf will pay the developer or bank

some even said i only get phase by phase? aiyoyo!

any help? Thanks.

See the parabolic/hockey stick chart of house price index in Selangor? Scary! I really doubtful why KL didn't have a similar curve?

My friendly advice is, do not touch anything that has a chart like this...    pops pops

See the parabolic/hockey stick chart of house price index in Selangor? Scary! I really doubtful why KL didn't have a similar curve?

My friendly advice is, do not touch anything that has a chart like this...    pops pops

this say different thing wor 



"產業重鎮已達飽和

當然，產業供應成長率的下跌，是意料中事，大馬產業市場重鎮，例如巴生河流域、柔佛與檳城，已經達到某種程度的飽和，供應已追上市場的需求，吉隆坡與檳城住宅產業的不足並不顯著，這是兩個幾乎已全面城市化的市場。

柔佛與雪蘭莪仍面對住宅產業不足應付需求的局面，其他州屬也存在供應不足的情況，只有森美蘭州除外，全國不足的總數接近200萬個單位，許多大馬人仍住在店屋、非法屋、長屋及非石磚房屋。"
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/59230?tid=8