The empire strikes back ?

Do any one of you still have that BUY BUY BUY mode on now
being that US an EU now that crisis just starting....whether US will have double dip or end of the Euro?

Also Australia have they own property just about to bust after this debt western world ongoing isssue
read this
Eighty-Five Australian Building and Construction Firms Go Under in a Month; Crazy to Buy a House in Australia Now-------------
Peter Jones at Master Builders Australia is blaming "uncertainty". The irony is that it would make far more sense to blame "certainty".

It is quite certain that Australia's housing bubble is now in crash mode. It is equally certain there is not a damn thing the Reserve Bank of Australia or any of the home builders can do about

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...ilding-and.html


And the last one is CHINA
Debt crisis: Beijing happy to help eurozone but is wary of domestic cost
The way the US has been falling, it is bringing back some bad memories of the financial crisis," said Mr Green. "The problem is that no one is really able to quantify the situation. Just like in 2008, it is very hard to get a feeling for how bad the bad parts of the Chinese economy are doing."

Reports have circulated in the Chinese media of factories in the south going bankrupt as orders from the West dry up, and of others struggling to find financing in the current climate. Faced with the prospect of lower production, copper and aluminium prices are now also falling.

Meanwhile, there are jitters about China's own debt problems, although not on the same catastrophic scale. An official report last month suggested that local governments had run up 10.7 trillion yuan (£1.02 trillion) of debt, some of which was likely to default. Moody's was less charitable, saying the local government debt pile may be 3.5 trillion yuan higher than the government estimates, and that 8pc to 12pc could be non-performing loans. Already, there have been reports of defaults, with two large motorway building companies going bankrupt.

"According to the National Audit Office, a quarter of local government debt is to mature in 2011, with another 29pc falling due in the next two years. So we are probably going to see a wave of problems over the next few years," said Alistair Thornton, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Beijing.

However, with China's total debt standing at 80pc of gross domestic product, and the government still generating significant income, few economists are overly concerned. "The problem is that people are certainly feeling a lot more jittery," said Mr Green. "A ministry of railways bond auction failed and people have been selling off local government debt. There has been a lot of restructuring that has not been reported."

The upshot is that another pillar of Chinese growth – state-sponsored lending – is also at risk. "Three years ago, there was enough credit to bail out the economy after the financial crisis and get it going again. But now, if there was a serious credit incident in Europe or the US, the feeling is that China does not have the same credit in the cupboard," said Mr Green.

Two more pillars of the Chinese economy, domestic consumption and fixed asset investment, are both looking moribund. Investment, which has fuelled Chinese growth for years, has finally begun to slow down, according to Wang Qinwei, China economist at Capital Economics in London.

"A lot of the infrastructure projects have now been completed," he said. "And fixed asset investment has been dropping a while. Consumers are also not feeling buoyant, if you look at the consumer confidence index and they are being hit with rising inflation."

Add those issues to a slowdown in exports, and the picture is far from rosy for China. Perhaps it is not surprising that while China wants to help Europe, it has so far declined to buy more troubled debt. China does not make the list of even the top 40 holders of Greek debt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financi...estic-cost.html



Is only one of the bank going down just like lehman brother that bring whole of western world in this debt crisis like now.......
and
If only one of the bank some where of Asia country might be thailand,indonesia ,china or perhap malaysia gone over lending that will bring it down all of Asia just like 1997....???
So still have that BUY BUY BUY mode

This post has been edited by 2wong: Aug 7 2011, 09:25 PM

In my own definition, there are more categories:-

1) Speculators who care only about own profit. Even if the sky around him falls and he profits, that's ok.

2) People who has extra money but could not find better investment than property market to park their money.

3) People who has enuf money to buy a decent roof over their heads.

4) People who don't have enuf money to buy a house.

5) People who don't care whether they have a house, the most imp thing is enjoy first and worry later.

Now, who to blame? Nobody. It's just that some have not seen what others have seen. Economy is linked, and selfishness would lead to destruction.

Were there any property development recently been sold out on launch day? I reckon this is maniac behaviour, when everyone rushes to one asset class and afraid of being left out, isn't a sign of bubble top?

I presume many property investors are on teaser/low introductory interest loans. They are hoping to flip the properties within the low interest period and make a handsome profits. When everyone thinks the same, do you still think you could find the next greater fool to get a mortgage he/she can't afford to buy your overpriced properties? I have a feeling the pool of greater fool is running out very soon. Any thoughts?

The US had just been downgraded to AA+ by S&P few days ago, who is going to buy their treasury bond? I think their central bank the FED will step in and announce another round of money printing QE3 very soon, and the European Central Bank is going to print money and buy the Italian/Spanish bonds as well in order to avoid debt default. It will be an inflationary depression. Petrol, corn, grain, cotton, everything will go up in price... and you think property could cope inflation? Yes, but not overpriced properties for sole investment purposes only. When people are struggling to get food on the table or fill their gas tank, do you think they will be interested in flipping houses, upgrade to a bigger mcmansion.

Eventually interest rate will have to go up to cope runaway inflation. I suppose your parents in 70s/80s would have experienced mortgage rate more than 10%. Ring your bell? Because we had runaway inflation in late 70s/early 80s due to high money supply expansion for the Vietnam War. When the mortgage rate goes up or teaser loan reset kicks in, how many flippers could service their mortgage debt when rate is at >10%?

I really hope our Boleh Land will not experience property wreckage similar to US, Ireland, Spain, Dubai, Japan... Folks, the storm is coming, the world reserve US dollar gonna collapse, high inflation will hit our shore very soon.

At the end of the day, median house price will have to match average household income in long run, without the matching income who is going to service the mortgage debt? When running out of greater fool to get a bigger mortgage to buy the property, the music stops, the property bubble will burst... because the flippers haven't got enough income in the economy to service the mortgage debt. Falling total housing loan size is a prelude of falling housing market. Did the size of total housing loan grow in the last few months?

Nego now and get a semid 40x90 just lower than 500k in Klang.

Next 6 months will be a good indicator for those prop that over price like mont kiara, setia alam especially terrace and condo. Good luck to all of us.
Next year is good time to buy.. When those have no holding power run out of bullet. Normally will take them 6-9 months to empty their reserve. Bank also need 3-6months notice before auction.
So my calculation is that hot area will have firesale around 2q of 2012.
Now is good time to look around for your love unit and wait for the time.
Same like share, next year is good time to buy bluechip property.
Hope im right here.

A lot of the advice given for own stay buyers is that it is OK to buy as long as they could afford it.

However the person giving advice often do not educate the young buyers on what is affordable. When the Euphoria is still there, people just assume the game will go on forever. House prices will perpetually rise vertically to stratosphere and cheap interest rates will stay for good.

the biggest bubble is actually Desa Park City.
what will be the precursor of a bursting bubble? when there is little to no subsale transaction while the price is still sky high.

It is just the beginning. For business man need money. Do u think they let go of the property or their business.
for the pass few years they have been buying lots of unit. Do you think they still got bullet?

Who else got bullet? Singaporean or malaysian work in singapore? Do u think they not worry that they loss their job like 2008 time? I think few months later it will be buyer market and not sell market. Be patient....

China investor? Worst that they need to cover own problem in china. Hong kong? Same

Antie uncle that buy for their kids. Just no choice but bite the bullet lo..

Do I miss anything here? In short, how many of u still sing the up up song.

Business man / companies went into properties because it 'was' a good place to park the excess cash. This category is not that risky.
The most risky is salaried worker, buying into the frenzy with maximum leverage. This group will be the catalyst for the coming crash.

Totally agree with you.
When market good, those not enough money to buy, don blame.
When market bad, those loss money, don blame.

Just work on it, it is just a cycle...you will get your turn... Cheer up now for those waiting. Cheer up for those make money for this round too. Some time u loss, some time u win.... Just dun blame others....

---

Added on August 7, 2011, 10:35 pm

---

Added on August 7, 2011, 10:44 pmI think everyone know this good indicator.
When uncle antie talk in passer to buy share, means it is bubble in share market. It happen in 1997.
When uncle antie talk in pasar to buy prop, means it is bubble in property market. It happen for the pass 1or 2 year.
Does not need a rocket scientic to tell.
All agreed?

Good luck to those that buy last year and this year. Those are waiting to bite the bullet. Still in construction type...
Especially have to wait until it hand out next year.. Like frog in the boiling water... Slowly slowly.... When notice, already burn.....

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Added on August 7, 2011, 11:16 pmFor those who think the prop only go up.. I think they might be wrong.
Just ask gamuda, in year2007,they give discount % and free club member to those buyer for bandar botanic terrace house to clear their stock. Not sure this time, thier directors had hold how many stock?
Think this time they might have firesale again. Wait and see next year.


This post has been edited by ayha2009: Aug 7 2011, 11:16 PM

phew....luckily....i thought you were going to say nego to get a 500k sd at desa park city/mutiara damansara/pj/kl/shah alam.....

Return of the Jedi

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Added on August 7, 2011, 11:51 pmI absolutely despise 1). They are usually heavily leveraged and bought properties like buying vegetables.

Have encountered their type at property launches. Walked in and said loudly: "I want 3 units!". "Wendy, book 4 units for me!" "We should enbloc this project".

No issues with 2) as most buy only 1-2 for investment.

This post has been edited by GenY: Aug 7 2011, 11:51 PM

appreciate u can share the data or elaborate some examples.. I see price no drop @iproperty. Maybe the price there not updated yet.

There is always a pattern buyers can detect before the actual property price cycle going down, that is developers will give more freebies (or even discounts) for new launches.

Anyone detect this sign in the market now?

I guess I don't see this sign in the market, not in Klang Valley at least.

This post has been edited by lch78: Aug 8 2011, 10:34 AM

dont say flippers, even normal "buy for own stay" owners like me are scared of escalating interest rates. i used iproperty calculator and discovered that if interest rates goes up to 12%, i'll be paying RM1200 more for my pigeon hole apartment. sustainability is still there but financial quality of life will disappear. and that's just me with my RM250k loan. cant imagine what will happen to those who have overleveraged. i dont wish hard times on anyone.

it is not yet declare officially.. that is y... ur dun felt it....

2008 recession declare officially when ci drop to below 900.. together with dj at 9000...

but, declaration will be sooner this round as job cut is serious then 2008 this time...


BBB... pls so on.. at least got someone can do some charity who can support economic... hehe..

From 24 May in V2.

Prices of properties in Malaysia have dropped in Q1 2011 vs Q4 2010.
Malaysian house price index dropped from 146.9 to 145.7.
So looks like market reacted very fast to the increase in LTV and BLR.

http://www.jpph.gov.my/V1/pdf/IHRM_Q1_2011_P.pdf

Prices of landed in KL are still going up.
Prices of high rise in KL have stagnated already.

GO FOR GOLD INSTEAD OF PROP?

Gold Price Spikes as U.S. Hit with Downgrade
Sunday, August 7, 2011, 6:32pm EDT Written by GoldAlert Staff. Tweet

GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price traded higher Sunday night, gaining $25.50 to $1689.25 per ounce. The price of gold spiked higher in reaction to the news late Friday that Standard & Poor’s downgraded the United States credit rating to AA+ from AAA – stripping the U.S. of the top rating it held for 70 years. The move prompted the European Central Bank to begin “actively” purchasing sovereign debt of Euro-zone nations.

The S&P 500 sank 7.2% last week and has now plunged nearly 200 points, or 13%, from peak to trough in a short two weeks. Stocks in the U.S. have fallen for nine of the past ten sessions. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell as low as 2.33% on Friday and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) soared toward the 40 level. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index touched its lowest level in seven months. The gold price rose $37.20 last week, making it one of the only asset classes outside of Treasury bonds to move higher.

Fear is back.

S&P 500 stock futures opened dramatically lower, sinking 29.10 to 1168.70 at 6:30pm eastern time Sunday night. With the gold price posting yet another all-time high, there is no overhead resistance above and $1,700 per ounce is less than $10.00 away.

Yes, they could but they wouldn't. In their mind now is the owner wants to make a profit. He definately will not sell it at a lost. And if the owners is cash rich, and is just looking for someplace to dump his cash then again he wouldn't be bothered whether people buy his house or not. For the agent, the more houses he sells the more money he makes, so he wouldn't increase the price beyond what he can sell.

The reason why an agent dares to raise prices is because there is a demand. And the demand here comes from Speculators who are thinking of raising the price further later .

I know of a case, whereby an agent doesn't want to sell a house because the owner had markup his price above market rate.

But yes, I do find it ridiculous what the agents are making. For a 300K prop in kv, the agent was asking for RM10K in comission.

Why are we so dumb, playing investor, when we should be agents instead?

Monday August 8, 2011
Mixed outlook for property in H2
By THEAN LEE CHENG
leecheng@thestar.com.my

Industry players are bracing for the impact of the US and Europe debt debacles

PETALING JAYA: The outlook of the property market is mixed, with developers reporting firm sales while property agents report tell-tale signs of a slowdown in certain market segments.

Rahim & Co executive chairman Datuk Abdul Rahim Rahman said: “The market is giving a mixed indication, but what is happening in the United States and Europe is very serious and will have an effect on this part of the world. For example, the take-up rates of newly-launched condominiums have been very encouraging with more than 60% sold just a few months after launching. However, on the rental market, leasing has been less active and rental rate has not increased that much.”

“The quick and healthy take-up rates reported by developers mean that people are still confidently investing despite the seriousness of the US and European debt issues,” he said.

He expects the number of launches to continue to be fairly healthy with good take-up rates, especially for those outside the Kuala Lumpur city centre

“The market is not saturated. Although prices of landed units may have gone up quite a bit, it is possible to buy detached houses at RM1mil in Shah Alam,” he said.


Reapfield says prices in the condominium market, excluding Mont’Kiara and KLCC, have not gone down and rental remains strong.

Senior vice-president Gerard Kho of real estate consultancy Reapfield, reckoned that the market might be rather flat when compared with the first half of this year and the whole of last year. The market during the last 18 months have been exceptionally buoyant and the full impact of the US-Europe problems were not factored in by the market then.

“We are not sure what will happen in the second half of this year, but we are taking a cautious stand,” said Kho.

He said the prices of landed units would continue to go but they are seeing a disparity between asking price and transacted price widening. This disparity was seen a couple of months ago, he said. Prices have gone up compared with the first half of this year but the increase was less.

“We expect this situation to continue - growing disparity between asking and transacted price,” Kho said.

As for the condominium market, excluding the KLCC and Mont' Kiara, prices have not gone down and rental remains strong. Kho said prices were flat in the Mont'Kiara and KLCC market.

The company was also seeing more listings coming into the market which means there were more units available now and buyers were waiting on the sidelines looking for a good buy, he said.

“But they are not going for fire-sale prices,” he said.

“People today will be buying at more realistic prices, unlike the first half of this year when they were prepared to pay more than the current market prices. As more stocks entering the market, the market may soften but despite that, high-rise units costing less than RM500,000 are expected to do well.

“If one is looking at the Klang Valley specifically, whether the market is up or down, there will be demand,” he said.

Kho said in terms of market activities, the first half of this year was the most buoyant compared with the Jan-June 2009 and Jan-June 2010 periods.

As for the healthy take-up rates, this may largely be attributed to the attractive lending terms offered by the banks together with the various rebates offered by developers.

In a 23-acre development known as Empire City next to the Lebuhraya Damansara-Puchong (LDP) by the Empire Group, a marketing agent reported that sales have been brisk with five to six units sold on a daily basis about two weeks ago.

Known as serviced office suites, the units are located on top of what will be a five-star hotel.

“This enables the buyer to apply for a 90% loan because this project is on a commercial title. If it were a residential title, he can only get 70% loan, if this is his third mortgage,” the agent said.

He explained that buyers need only pay a deposit of RM5,000. There is a 5% rebate. If a unit costs half a million, a buyer gets RM25,000 discount. He needs to pay the remaining 5% (RM25,000) upon signing the Sale and Purchase Agreement, less the RM5,000 booking fee. His initial capital outlay amounts to only RM20,000. The entire 23-acre development is expected to be completed by 2015.

Rebates have become a feature in today's launches and may be a sign of the competitive property market, particularly for condominium sales.

In a three-acre development in Jalan Kiara 3, near Mont'Kiara heading towards Segambut, Mitrajaya Homes group relaunched Kiara 9 Residency over the weekend. The completed project comprises about 200 units of condominiums and 16 units of 3.5 storey villas. The condominium block is 70% sold, the villas, 50% sold.

There is a 20% rebate for condominium units facing west, those facing east, a 12% discount and those facing another upcoming condominium block, a 15% discount.

Some of the discounts could go as high as RM200,000. Landed villas come with a 5% rebate.

As an indication, a 2,200 sq ft unit complete with cabinet fixtures and electrical appliances on the 10th floor facing another ongoing block of high-rise apartment is priced at RM1.7mil, and a discount of up RM256,000 has been given.