Lazy to search for the earlier published chart. I roughly remember that during year 1997, the high rise price averagely dropped 15% and landed properties depending on type of property whether terrace, semi-D or bungalow(5% to 12%) but the terrace dropped the least. However this time around, it is my own observation that more people goes into property compared to year 1997. Back then, lots of people invested in the share market, interest rates much higher and more bonus for the employees.

During a severe crash, bank would be overcompensated and there would be credit crunch. The market is out of cash and people cannot get loan to finance their purchase. A panic sales in the market could cost the price to drop well below the price before the boom period. At that time, we could be talking about more than 20%.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 28 2011, 01:54 PM

It's interesting to know that Irish property tripled during year 2000 to 2006.

A quick calculation reviews that for a combined household income of RM20,000, interest rates of 4%, 30 years repayment. The family could be able to get a loan of RM2,000,000 with a monthly repayment of RM10,000 per month. The question is how many household has got a combined income of RM20,000? Since many has jumped into the property market, the eligibility to get loan would be less now.

Therefore, the ultimate limit of house price in our market could be less than RM2,000,000. And for those who own multiple houses, they might have reached their own limit. Who is going to afford those houses if the house price going up further? As reported in the newspaper, our property market is mainly supported by locals. What then is our buying capacity? If our income is say half of Irish, then our house price limit would be?

Although it looks dramatic but it is equivalent about 30%++ dropping only.

RM600,000 link house drop to RM420,000, not do dramatic if we look at it this way, right?

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Added on June 28, 2011, 3:11 pmIf it comes, it's going to be worst than 1998.

Year 1998 was not a property crash. It's an economy slow down that affected the house price.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 28 2011, 03:11 PM

You are right, it's economic crisis I stand corrected. The point is it is not triggered by property market.

You are also right to say that there is no reverse in inflation, this is evident in history. Lots of news reports in malaysia has some how reached the conclusion that material price increase in not the cause of property price increase.

Stagflation --> High inflation + Stagnation would definitely trigger the total collapse of the economy and then the depreciation in house price. With our national debts running high, it would suicidal to have high profile projects at the peak of inflation. When the oil price drops back, our revenue would be reduced, however material price stays, would we continue with our mega projects?

And the price drop, i didn't say it is not dramatic.... i said it is not so dramatic as it looks......

However, since property price has appreciated more than 30% in lots of area in KV. It is possible for the property price to drop 30% and this is evident in many parts of the world.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 28 2011, 03:44 PM

Dear Kochin,

It is my humble opinion that the current world economy is not strong as we reckon it to be. In fact it is rather fragile and a wrong move would subject the global economy to severe down turn.

While we all pray and hope that it would turn out to be good. Let's also embrace and be prepared for whatever that is coming.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 28 2011, 03:33 PM

I also hope and pray that the house price will go up as I do have interest in property as well.

However, I sincerely do not wish that all these appreciation is at the expense of the possible economy collapse and later lots of people are caught in between.

Still remember how my friend wishes to use my name to borrow money from the bank to solve his livelihood problem.

The next thing is the fact about global economy, American,Europe and Japan economy now all facing problems. We have to be careful.

The bank should do it moderately and in stages or else there would be a credit crunch. No cash in circulation. It will hurt our economy badly.

I have got myself prepared. Anything that come, I will face it head on and come out unscratched.

Soft landing......

Hope that we manage to turn/divert the course of the speed train.

I rather earn less, or no profit rather than the whole country gets into trouble and back fire on me.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jul 4 2011, 04:37 PM

Let's pray and hope that everybody makes money, nobody loses money and the economy stays strong.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jul 5 2011, 01:49 PM

In that case, I choose to be the losing party as long as the whole country economy remains intact and people dun have to go the street to protest.....

Ya, hope that the government knows what they are doing and not digging our own grave.

It's recorded in the book ,"The world is flat" that American outsource too much jobs to the outside world that it affected the locals.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jul 5 2011, 07:23 PM

360K annual rental? Plenty some more........ Wow!

Wow.....

0.25% = extra 8000/mth int

Based on 4% rate, the monthly repayment would be a whooping RM128,000 per month

If the repayment period is 10 years, the loan amount would be ~13 Million

If the repayment period is 30 years, the loan amount would be ~26 Million

BIG EXPOSURE!!

There is some data in the following homepage although it might not be in your required format:-

http://www.jpph.gov.my/V1/index3service.ph...mat=3&no_item=4

Mind tell us which age group are those people?

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Added on July 23, 2011, 2:11 pmCredit Crunching!!

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Added on July 23, 2011, 2:50 pmI have yet to see any of the political figure saying that bad time is coming and that we should prepare ourselves. Everything is only good. **IF** the finance ministry knows anything coming, e.g. credit crunching, he should warn us and not give us false hope that property price will increase further.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jul 23 2011, 02:50 PM

IF majority(depending on your definition) REALLY cannot afford to pay 30% to 40% of down payment and it is the regulation set, it mean only minority(Depending on your definition) is buying houses.

Under the above situation, price will definitely drop because the property sector could not be supported only by minority.

Lazy to count. But I sense that property forum "traffic" is reduced compared to few months back.

However, this tread is still particularly active.

Other property forum also more quiet now.

The silence below the tragedy???