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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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ayha2009
post Jul 15 2011, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(Nikmon @ Jul 15 2011, 04:19 PM)
I think there are a lot of 'casual' player enter the property market

their 'optimistic' view is the most dangerous thing and help to push up the property price further..

Gov should find a way to educate pp the 'risk' of invest on property else this group of young pp will get hurt badly if
economic condition turn sour...... and all those rich pp will benefit from it.
*
No pain no gain.. no one force you buy/slip property.. right.
So ppl need to realize themself (grow up lah).
still govman to take care this , take care that. remind you this, remind you that - like a small baby....

most greedy ppl have short memory sickness... 1993, 1997, 2009 etc... take care yourself.... rclxub.gif rclxms.gif


Added on July 15, 2011, 4:40 pm
QUOTE(ayha2009 @ Jul 15 2011, 04:26 PM)
No pain no gain.. no one force you buy/slip property.. right.
So ppl need to realize themself (grow up lah).
still govman to take care this , take care that. remind you this, remind you that - like a small baby....

most greedy ppl have short memory sickness... 1993, 1997, 2009 etc... take care yourself.... rclxub.gif  rclxms.gif
*
read it yourself.... most popular developer...

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business/18...downgrades.html

This post has been edited by ayha2009: Jul 15 2011, 04:40 PM
ayha2009
post Aug 4 2011, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(clothesforababy @ Aug 4 2011, 02:15 PM)
If the property price continue to rise, eventually we will be like them. But I do not think it will be our generation, our next generation are sure to suffer from this.

Anyhow, Malaysia property is considered very affordable to overseas investors, that's why our property can soon become their target for investment, for example, KL property prices are so much lower than Jakarta giving the fact that our political stability is also much stronger than theirs.

Giving the fact that Malaysia property prices are increasing rapidly, when will our income level follow suit?
*
Sorry to say that it is not correct.
I only see Indonesia professional come over to malaysia work especially Information technology.
I believe our salary is higher than them as compare to the living standard too.
First time heard that jakarta property is higher than kl. notworthy.gif rclxm9.gif

ayha2009
post Aug 5 2011, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(1ullaby @ Aug 5 2011, 08:12 AM)
lol. Jakarta is indeed higher. Income factor apart there's also population pressure la.
Manila median also higher than kv median, I stand corrected.
*
May be my working area is small.
I found that people from india, indo, philipine flood singapore and malaysia to work.
My logic is that if their country property is higher price than malaysia, i believe their salary/earning is higher. (in average and the topic is focus on city like manila/kl/jakarta).
It's because only higher income can support higher property price. (exclude speculation).

Additionally, do you ever heard of any malaysian go to work in Jakarta/Manila - how many cases as compare?
You can go to cyberjaya and you will found lots of indo, india, philipino.. rclxm9.gif rclxms.gif
That concludes my logic and make sense. right? rclxub.gif thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by ayha2009: Aug 5 2011, 11:23 AM
ayha2009
post Aug 6 2011, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(keithcky @ Aug 6 2011, 12:12 PM)
May be true and may not be. Always be ready! We will never know when is the opportunity / disaster...
*
Change is constant. Never say never. Who know one day property drop like us.. You will agreed with us folk now..
I do believe they have the same believe as you.. flex.gif


Added on August 6, 2011, 11:43 pm
QUOTE(GangHo @ Aug 6 2011, 09:09 PM)
Double Dip Recession may be happening, refer the link below:-

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44029985

Do take note of the global PMI data released recently. China is not spared as well.
*
It is just the beginning like 2007. So do expect next year or 2013, lots of fire sale. In fact it is happening now. rclxms.gif
Search for auction or ask the agent.
I' waiting for the good chance next year. icon_rolleyes.gif


This post has been edited by ayha2009: Aug 6 2011, 11:43 PM
ayha2009
post Aug 7 2011, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Aug 6 2011, 11:58 PM)
Do you manage to get one good fire sale?
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Nego now and get a semid 40x90 just lower than 500k in Klang.
rclxms.gif icon_idea.gif
Next 6 months will be a good indicator for those prop that over price like mont kiara, setia alam especially terrace and condo. Good luck to all of us.
Next year is good time to buy.. When those have no holding power run out of bullet. Normally will take them 6-9 months to empty their reserve. Bank also need 3-6months notice before auction.
So my calculation is that hot area will have firesale around 2q of 2012.
Now is good time to look around for your love unit and wait for the time.
Same like share, next year is good time to buy bluechip property.
Hope im right here.
ayha2009
post Aug 7 2011, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(GangHo @ Aug 7 2011, 03:19 PM)
I see lots of good properties on auction.

http://thinkproperty.com.my/realestate/Auc...ults&type1_my=3

Think property dot com has got 1364 properties on auction on all types of properties:-

Link House, Bungalow, condo/apartment, shop office, commercial land, industrial land, residential land, semi-D

in Kepong, Kajang, Old Kland road, Shah Alam, Kajang, Ampang, Puchong, Bukit Bintang, Subang Jaya, Sentul

and prestigious place like Beverly Hills-Ampang, Sierramas-Sungai Buloh, Country Height-Kajang, Bandar Sri Damansara, Mont Kiara

Auction date between August to December 2011.

This is just one homepage.

Find hard enough, you should be able to find one from these properties. good Luck.
*
It is just the beginning. For business man need money. Do u think they let go of the property or their business.
for the pass few years they have been buying lots of unit. Do you think they still got bullet?

Who else got bullet? Singaporean or malaysian work in singapore? Do u think they not worry that they loss their job like 2008 time? I think few months later it will be buyer market and not sell market. Be patient....

China investor? Worst that they need to cover own problem in china. Hong kong? Same

Antie uncle that buy for their kids. Just no choice but bite the bullet lo..

Do I miss anything here? In short, how many of u still sing the up up song.


ayha2009
post Aug 7 2011, 10:31 PM

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QUOTE(GangHo @ Aug 7 2011, 09:27 PM)
In my own definition, there are more categories:-

1) Speculators who care only about own profit. Even if the sky around him falls and he profits, that's ok.

2) People who has extra money but could not find better investment than property market to park their money.

3) People who has enuf money to buy a decent roof over their heads.

4) People who don't have enuf money to buy a house.

5) People who don't care whether they have a house, the most imp thing is enjoy first and worry later.

Now, who to blame? Nobody. It's just that some have not seen what others have seen. Economy is linked, and selfishness would lead to destruction.
*
Totally agree with you.
When market good, those not enough money to buy, don blame.
When market bad, those loss money, don blame.

Just work on it, it is just a cycle...you will get your turn... Cheer up now for those waiting. Cheer up for those make money for this round too. Some time u loss, some time u win.... Just dun blame others.... thumbup.gif rclxm9.gif


Added on August 7, 2011, 10:35 pm
QUOTE(2wong @ Aug 7 2011, 09:24 PM)
Do any one of you still have that BUY   BUY   BUY mode on now
being that US an EU now that crisis just starting....whether US will have double dip or end of the Euro?

Also Australia have they own property just about to bust  after this debt western world ongoing isssue
read this
Eighty-Five Australian Building and Construction Firms Go Under in a Month; Crazy to Buy a House in Australia Now-------------
Peter Jones at Master Builders Australia is blaming "uncertainty". The irony is that it would make far more sense to blame "certainty".

It is quite certain that Australia's housing bubble is now in crash mode. It is equally certain there is not a damn thing the Reserve Bank of Australia or any of the home builders can do about

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...ilding-and.html
And the last one is   CHINA
Debt crisis: Beijing happy to help eurozone but is wary of domestic cost
The way the US has been falling, it is bringing back some bad memories of the financial crisis," said Mr Green. "The problem is that no one is really able to quantify the situation. Just like in 2008, it is very hard to get a feeling for how bad the bad parts of the Chinese economy are doing."

Reports have circulated in the Chinese media of factories in the south going bankrupt as orders from the West dry up, and of others struggling to find financing in the current climate. Faced with the prospect of lower production, copper and aluminium prices are now also falling.

Meanwhile, there are jitters about China's own debt problems, although not on the same catastrophic scale. An official report last month suggested that local governments had run up 10.7 trillion yuan (£1.02 trillion) of debt, some of which was likely to default. Moody's was less charitable, saying the local government debt pile may be 3.5 trillion yuan higher than the government estimates, and that 8pc to 12pc could be non-performing loans. Already, there have been reports of defaults, with two large motorway building companies going bankrupt.

"According to the National Audit Office, a quarter of local government debt is to mature in 2011, with another 29pc falling due in the next two years. So we are probably going to see a wave of problems over the next few years," said Alistair Thornton, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Beijing.

However, with China's total debt standing at 80pc of gross domestic product, and the government still generating significant income, few economists are overly concerned. "The problem is that people are certainly feeling a lot more jittery," said Mr Green. "A ministry of railways bond auction failed and people have been selling off local government debt. There has been a lot of restructuring that has not been reported."

The upshot is that another pillar of Chinese growth – state-sponsored lending – is also at risk. "Three years ago, there was enough credit to bail out the economy after the financial crisis and get it going again. But now, if there was a serious credit incident in Europe or the US, the feeling is that China does not have the same credit in the cupboard," said Mr Green.

Two more pillars of the Chinese economy, domestic consumption and fixed asset investment, are both looking moribund. Investment, which has fuelled Chinese growth for years, has finally begun to slow down, according to Wang Qinwei, China economist at Capital Economics in London.

"A lot of the infrastructure projects have now been completed," he said. "And fixed asset investment has been dropping a while. Consumers are also not feeling buoyant, if you look at the consumer confidence index and they are being hit with rising inflation."

Add those issues to a slowdown in exports, and the picture is far from rosy for China. Perhaps it is not surprising that while China wants to help Europe, it has so far declined to buy more troubled debt. China does not make the list of even the top 40 holders of Greek debt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financi...estic-cost.html
Is only one of the bank going down just like lehman brother that bring whole of western world in this debt crisis like now.......
and
If only one of the bank some where of Asia country might  be thailand,indonesia ,china or perhap malaysia gone over lending  that will bring it down all of Asia just like 1997....???
So still have that BUY BUY BUY mode
*

Added on August 7, 2011, 10:44 pm
QUOTE(cranx @ Aug 7 2011, 10:22 PM)
Business man / companies went into properties because it 'was' a good place to park the excess cash. This category is not that risky.
The most risky is salaried worker, buying into the frenzy with maximum leverage. This group will be the catalyst for the coming crash.
*
I think everyone know this good indicator.
When uncle antie talk in passer to buy share, means it is bubble in share market. It happen in 1997.
When uncle antie talk in pasar to buy prop, means it is bubble in property market. It happen for the pass 1or 2 year.
Does not need a rocket scientic to tell. rclxm9.gif rclxms.gif
All agreed?

Good luck to those that buy last year and this year. Those are waiting to bite the bullet. Still in construction type...
Especially have to wait until it hand out next year.. Like frog in the boiling water... Slowly slowly.... When notice, already burn..... icon_question.gif


Added on August 7, 2011, 11:16 pm
QUOTE(keithcky @ Aug 6 2011, 12:12 PM)
May be true and may not be. Always be ready! We will never know when is the opportunity / disaster...
*
For those who think the prop only go up.. I think they might be wrong.
Just ask gamuda, in year2007,they give discount % and free club member to those buyer for bandar botanic terrace house to clear their stock. Not sure this time, thier directors had hold how many stock?
Think this time they might have firesale again. Wait and see next year.
rclxms.gif rclxm9.gif

This post has been edited by ayha2009: Aug 7 2011, 11:16 PM
ayha2009
post Aug 8 2011, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(humble_tot @ Aug 8 2011, 02:25 AM)
appreciate u can share the data or elaborate some examples.. I see price no drop @iproperty. Maybe the price there not updated yet.
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I notice that those in iproperty, homeguru, mudah etc... are those agent that advertise to scare the buyer that house price is that range.
I usually use it as benthmark - 20-30%, which is the market price.

Those advertise was never sold and repeatedly advertise and advertise....
u know how advestisement work right? if it advertise long enough, you will believe it.
Can ask those who work on the advertisement company.. rclxm9.gif flex.gif rclxms.gif



ayha2009
post Aug 9 2011, 11:02 PM

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QUOTE(jeffschuen @ Aug 9 2011, 05:46 PM)
Totally agreed wit u. Prices shown on iproperty @ RM900k & RM915k. When check wit agents, RM920k & RM945k at least. I thought usually can bargain the advertised price lower but tis totally opposite  doh.gif . Think searchin newspaper better. Any other recommend sources of ref?
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I have the same experience. Sugguest u drive around the area you like rather than iproperty or mudah etc... Website is more for reference and agent used it to attract foreigner only. It is also part of advertisement only.
I manage to spot my love property when I drive around the area.
Good luck to u.

I think we need to be constructive here.
Anyone know or read any good info that help us to decide when is the right time, the bottom of the crisis.
It help a lot rather than give negative comments.
Any guru got private info to share?


Added on August 9, 2011, 11:10 pm
QUOTE(debtismoney @ Aug 9 2011, 10:47 AM)
notworthy.gif

Boleh Land is overbuilding, we will have property glut, just look at how many new housing projects on iProperty.com, at this price, how many of them could be rented or flipped to next greater fool.
*
Would you able to share more info?
I think best to monitor job market and developer reaction.
Pls post if anyone got latest news from banker. Interest rate. Borrowing cases drop etc..
Those are better indicator rather than property website.
Pls share ... icon_question.gif drool.gif notworthy.gif icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by ayha2009: Aug 9 2011, 11:10 PM
ayha2009
post Aug 10 2011, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Aug 10 2011, 02:03 PM)
Many of those hoping property price to drop will not buy even though property really drop...
Till to-date, I still can't relate property mkt to stock mkt in Malaysia, why must property prices go up when stock mkt bull & vice versa, one is paper dealing (intangible) while the other is tangible goods (construction materials).
IMO, property price is close related to gomen development policies (township, infrastructure & amenities planning), politic stability, foreign investment policy, change in demographic between urban & sub-urban & commodity supply & prices changes, all fundamental issue.
Highrise properties are likely over supply in 2013-2015 judging fr the massive new highrise development launched lately, it is regarless of whether KLSE index is reaching 2000 mark or fall back to 500 point.
Be wise when selecting a right property, location & type of property are more essence than timing.
My 2 bakuli
*
I think it's related if you refer back in year 1997.
that time stock market is record high and same as property market.
History never liar... i only problem is ppl have short memory.... rclxm9.gif icon_idea.gif rclxms.gif
anyway, time change, thing change.... so it is up to your own interpretation...
ayha2009
post Aug 12 2011, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(gregy @ Aug 12 2011, 02:56 AM)
My boss who's got a prop business tells me that most of the time, those "nearly sold out" print ads all BS wan. They reserve many units for flipping. Hope to get the hype going, then when demand goes up, they slowly let go their own units at a good margin above base price. That's how the game has been played all along. Dunno how true but sounds plausible innit?
*
This is the marketing strategy... like apple or harry porter.
Business man create the hype to lunch it will small amount. like apple, it lunch ipad/iphone slowly...
Harry porter, the publisher create news that the book will sold out immediately.
This two example create hype that ppl queue up to buy... Only novice will believe them...
ha..ha...


Added on August 12, 2011, 4:35 pm
QUOTE(lch78 @ Aug 12 2011, 03:00 PM)
For good commercial props location, you might want to check out Kota Damansara The Strand area. It seems to fit your requirements above.  smile.gif 

But the price there has appreciated quite substantial over the last few years.
*
Since our friend are so kang... i suggest u look at bandar botanic klang shop opposite jaya jusco...
it have more than 100 shops empty even the location is just 1 minutes oppsite JJ. the shops have been empty 3 years++

In addition, there are another 100 shops build by gamuda and VP end this year..

Do you think good location is always right? unless u have very strong holding power.... ~10 years.
Or else u just have to wait for ppl to rent.... wait wait. wait...

Good location means???? very subjective.... i think... rclxm9.gif

This post has been edited by ayha2009: Aug 12 2011, 04:37 PM
ayha2009
post Sep 11 2011, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(1ullaby @ Sep 10 2011, 10:35 PM)
Dude, a property forum naturally has alot of optimist, do you expect all pessimist together the forum everyday and be negative?
No one will be so mou liu lo. lol
*
seller want to sell so create sentiment on the high side price.
Buyer want to buy lower price.
Pure real estate agent want more transaction and in the middle.
One of the problem, is that some real estate is the flipper too.
This make us not trusting them.

Some like remixer in share long time ago.
Lesson learn, most of the remixer now would not make any recommendation.

Soon or later, real estate agent ago follow suit. Because scold by many ppl.

One more point, last time remixer can get good commission but not now because most can get investment advice easily. No value add, no commission.

Now Real estate can get 2 or 3% commission on transaction but i think it will soon get lower. Ppl can easily get housing info from any internet. No value add, less commission. Personally, I search property myself in my area. Why pay commission and u can easily the the owner contact from the house neighbour or from developer.
U can easily get lawyer contact from Internet too.

Agreed? Real estate agent, pls be professional and provide advice professionally.
Never advice or else get scold like reminser long time ago.
ayha2009
post Sep 12 2011, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(macho dog @ Sep 11 2011, 12:49 PM)
U think everybody so free like u meh? Everytime someone wan 2 buy or rent, go and attend the viewing personally?

What do u expect a  RE agent to say to be professional in their service?

Buyer: is the selling price fair?

Agent: no comment

Buyer: is the unit easy to rent out?

Agent: no comment

Buyer: is the access good and traffic jam or not?

Agent: no comment

LOL
An investor or home finder shud not trust the agent words blindly but to study the recomendations and facts to make judgement.

I m not a RE agent but happily using their service.

Dun be penny wise pound foolish lor....
*
I think this way as example: if my salary is RM10k permonth and i'm looking for a 800k property.
My daily earning is RM10k/20 = rm 500.
Re Agent will get ~2% of 800k = 16k.

If i spent my time to look for property is ~10 days (for during of 5 months - each month sent 2 days), it only cost me RM5k.

even through RE fee is giving go the RE agent by the seller, if i can ask the seller to pass that cost to me (RM16K), i safe RM11k.

Is this math simple and easy.. i think i spent less instantly in purchase of my dream house rather than wait for the market drop.

Anyway, it's up to individual on how they want to spent their $$$. Only superman and superrich is busy.

Along the line of search for my own dream house, i also learn about the property market which eventually can help me to become a good investor too. when i grow my profile.... icon_rolleyes.gif thumbup.gif

One stone kill two birds.. rclxms.gif


ayha2009
post Sep 12 2011, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Sep 12 2011, 01:04 PM)
called up an agent, he said bad time to buy now because price too high, advice to rent or wait.
*
Look like your real estate agent is your good friend.
Normally it's more like they encourage more transaction for their own benefit.
Anyway, it's not all RE agent is unprofessional.. good to know that you have a good agent. rclxms.gif
ayha2009
post Nov 11 2011, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Nov 8 2011, 09:40 PM)
long time no post here, all the super negative pessimistic complain king forumers & their followers had a fun time?
I was busy gambling in share market making moolah & those who 'buy low & sell high' with me r now veli hapi indeed  rclxms.gif
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1935875/+1740 Post #1744
look at gld, gain of 30%  smile.gif call option now is $32 with strike price $160 expiring on 15 march 2013
if anyone bought the etf at $160 and sells now at $175, gain only pathetic 9%. options is a powerful tool, if u understand its timing & TA  cool2.gif

anyway, another 80 post and we can hav v4  rclxms.gif ever since v1, hav the prop price drop? tongue.gif
of coz, we exclude those super high end and unheard of areas, coz prop investment is all about location3
the poll where >70% forumers voted, shows the situation where super negative pessimistic complain king forumers stands  laugh.gif

do u think bolehland political situation now is similar to yr 2008 under the previous pm ruling?
do u think u can buy 10 props only earning the average wage of $3k?  
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=...5158&sec=nation

"When it comes to governance, Malaysians are very satisfied with their government. In a 2010 survey, 82% expressed approval of the government, and around 67% approximately approved of the country’s efforts to address poverty and preserve the environment,” said the report & “Public faith in financial institutions remains extremely high, with 87% expressing confidence in Malaysia’s financial sector,” said the report

there is pent up demand for props by this group (ie.70% forumers) who missed the gravy train due to bubble mindset  doh.gif
there is zero chance for their wages to catch up to props affordability. they will need to find innovative ways to complain until v2020
those who takut of yr2012 maya cartoons. better sell everything & stay in deep jungles of pahang with astro hd subscription, its much safer 

its very high chance those 70% forumers r in the youngster group who just started working or r those oldies with bubble mindset
since every year we hav so many graduates cuming out to work, where u think they wanna stay after working for few years?
of coz buy their own la, then if got excess, can do investment. but life is never fair. so SUCK it up loh  shakehead.gif

I m doing my part to rent props to this group of 70% forumers, who thinks props prices r overpriced
however due to inflation, my rental hav to increase & if tenants no agree, they can go stay further away or at those graffiti prone areas
if those 70% forumers can convince me that there r places which sells nasi lemak at 1sen. ie nenek moyang prices, then we got bubble  tongue.gif 

once their wages roket up as they climb corporate ladder, they can go buy props at mkt value, provided my type of speculators wanna sell  brows.gif
as our debate continues on & to rerepeat again - if life hand u a lemonade, try find ways to be a supplier of lemonade instead of opening the stall
now, we await those super negative pessimistic forumers to present facts & data that their waiting is well worth it, within the context of bolehland la

u can talk abt usa on subprime lending, but any mat rempit able to buy 10 props? which bank allows that type of lending standards?
u can talk abt china where their developers r slashing prices, but r our developers doing it? 
u can oso talk abt euro debt crisis, but if it meletup, would u even hav a job to think of buying props?
*

Added on November 11, 2011, 7:27 pmJust to share.
This prop was auction last year at 890k.
http://thinkproperty.com.my/realestate/ind...tail&id=1221056

Now was auction with 10%less. First time no one bid.
Who say bank belong is always lowest. It can go lower.
This is just one real case and there are many to come.


Added on November 11, 2011, 7:34 pmLet give another example.
http://www.iproperty.com.my/propertylistin...d_House_ForSale

This one was asking 790k.
Do you think bandar botanic and kiang bandar baru is not good location?
It has jj, tesco and giant nearby.
Any feedback is welcome but pls give facts and example rather blow water..


This post has been edited by ayha2009: Nov 11 2011, 07:34 PM
ayha2009
post Nov 12 2011, 03:29 PM

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Just want to ask the sifu here.
Do u interested to buy at the current economy, situation etc..
What is the buyer mode index for property in Malaysia?
I think it is better to talk about it with focus on area like klang, bangsar, pj, subang.
I think klang is not looking good, as u can see there is over supply of shop lot in bandar botanic, parkland 3,glenamrie cove, bayumas etc..
Even the location is very near jj, estimated 200 to 400 shop lots is empty for the last 2 years at ambang botanic.
Not sure where the money come? Those property are unproductive.
Easily can see ppl throw prices when economy turn worst next year.

Any comments.. Who know the situation in mont kiara, setia alam, sg long area? Kindly share.


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