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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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cranx
post Jun 28 2011, 01:00 PM

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change of thread title..good one. laugh.gif

assuming the sharp increase started in 2009, assuming property boom and bust cycle is around 6 years, we might be looking at 2014.
those who have waited, you are only half way there, are you going to wait further or take the plunge ?

case study.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble

QUOTE
With the introduction of the single currency, interest rates were greatly reduced and those buying property were encouraged to borrow larger amounts of money. As prices continued upward financial institutions offered 100% loans. Newspapers carried advertising for properties urging people to get onto the property ladder as property was seen as a one way bet. In 2006 160,000 Irish people remained unemployed, 21% of all school leavers including those that completed the Leaving Certificate, were unemployed, the construction industry employed one eighth of the population, above the European average. Inflation was higher in Ireland than elsewhere.


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cranx
post Jun 29 2011, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(shyhhua @ Jun 29 2011, 09:49 AM)
Middle class homes
The Star
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News in The Star newspaper today. I think the first time house buyer will wait for this to launch since it is only eligible for 1st time buyer.  New property launches may get affected by this news, coz most of the 1st time buyer will wait and see...  hmm.gif
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thanks for sharing.
wondering what is the classification of middle class? between RM3000 ~ RM6000?

what about those earning below RM3000, are they allowed to buy middle class homes? or they must go for low class homes? hmm.gif
cranx
post Jun 30 2011, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(marcusboy @ Jun 30 2011, 11:08 AM)
Sorry, I have been checking the classified and iproperty to buy a landed property for my own stay - not for flipping.  I notce that the price of the same proeprty that could be on the market for a couple of months, increase by at least 50k - 100k when marketed by a different agent. Now this is the same property. So if the property is marketed by two or three different agents at different stages in time, the agents just put up the price. How can you say then it is because of rising cost of building materials etc? The properties are either old properties (basic) or certainly were not in the process of being renovated when they were put up for sale. So I find the agents play a very significant role in jacking up the prices far beyong the actual market value of the property. Granted, they want to earn higher commission etc, etc - who does not want more $$$ but shouldn't there be some responsibility? How easy for them to raise the prices, and to raise the vendors' impression that the property is worth that much. It's fine when the proeprty is worth its value but more often than not, it is not. It is a very dangereous situation but sad to say nobody sees it or wants to believe it till it is too late. Everyone just adds fuel to the raging fire till it gets out of control. Just my observation.
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if nearby new launch RM600psf and instant sold out, adjacent RM350psf older condo will shoot to atleast RM500psf.
new launch block B increase to RM650psf. the older condo will follow to atleast RM550psf.

not really agent's fault. if the demand is not there, no matter how high they priced it, there will be no takers.
cranx
post Jul 8 2011, 12:24 AM

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similar discussion in USJ forum, an interesting one as well.
over there mostly support the fact of bubble and no bulls there mostly bear.

http://www.usj.com.my/bulletin/upload/showthread.php?t=33052
cranx
post Jul 19 2011, 01:21 AM

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KLSE not doing well, perhaps it is time to SSS now.
cranx
post Jul 21 2011, 10:55 PM

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go watch this documentary. produced during the peak of UK housing bubble and see how similar the situation compared to ours today.

Channel4.Dispatches..The.Housing.Trap.pdtv.XviD.mp3.Remax
cranx
post Jul 23 2011, 12:03 AM

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US bubble prophecy in 2005.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...w-paradigm.html

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which stage are we right now? think prices peak already?
cranx
post Jul 23 2011, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(Vincent Pang @ Jul 23 2011, 07:29 PM)
this is my conversation with a property agent just now for her post of a semi-d selling for RM 450k at KL
Go higher while you still can ! I'm also waiting...
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no doubt subsale is slowing down tremendously. lots of properties just paper gain.
the BBB scenario is only applicable for new launch properties.


cranx
post Jul 24 2011, 09:13 PM

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i think it is ok to post the articles here, just use spoiler.
some articles will only appear for a short while and go into archive later.
cranx
post Jul 24 2011, 09:15 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 24 2011, 09:10 PM)
I use picture news..... brows.gif
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malaysia consumer debt at an all time high. danger sign.
i foresee a lot of people going into trouble very soon.
cranx
post Jul 24 2011, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 24 2011, 09:15 PM)
tha's y some articles will be missing forever whenever need it for comparison/info.

these articles got theirs values. now have to save inside my own threads somewhere.


Added on July 24, 2011, 9:16 pm
hmm each transaction about RM250....kekekeke...still can be afforded gua.

yesterday went to Maybank treats fair also spend more than this amount.
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lyn members are rich. cannot compare with the general public.
noticed the hardcore bulls and bears no longer debate or post anything here.

only left with the neutrals.
cranx
post Jul 24 2011, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jul 24 2011, 09:33 PM)
oz all the Taikors start the buying spree quietly without sharing more due to scarcity of quality properties ..kekekekeke..check the CLASSIFIED
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what clue can we get from the classified?
lots of WTS from flippers?
cranx
post Jul 24 2011, 09:46 PM

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new trend is auntie uncle, and fresh new out of college investors buy buy buy all the new launch.
cranx
post Jul 24 2011, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(GangHo @ Jul 24 2011, 10:01 PM)
Other property forum also more quiet now.

The silence below the tragedy???  sweat.gif  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
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yes, the ones i follow realestate and myrealestate both very slow these days.
cranx
post Jul 29 2011, 01:33 AM

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QUOTE(keithcky @ Jul 29 2011, 01:17 AM)
Yes i heard it will keep going up for next 10yrs. Dont let the buying stops  smile.gif
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exactly man. prices you think is expensive now, revisit again in 2 years time.
I dont think you could find any condo for less than RM1000psf by then.

please take note our property is one of the cheapest in the region and there are lots of foreign investors.
better buy now and sell to the foreigners at a profit later.

also, it is damn shame without your own house when most of the working class has more than 3 properties. smile.gif
cranx
post Jul 31 2011, 04:43 PM

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if the price increase is gradual, in case of a downturn or recession, price will be stagnant/slight decrease.
in the case of rapid price increase (eg. 2nd phase increase RM50k, 3rd phase RM100k). it will be hard landing. no doubt about it.
cranx
post Aug 3 2011, 03:41 AM

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QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Aug 2 2011, 09:30 PM)
I don't know for certain if a bubble is coming, but I do think that it's time to be a little bit more careful.  Just for fun, i'd like to share some anecdotal evidence on why a bubble MAY be happening

1. If u talk to some bankers around town, they will tell you that 7 out of 10 loans do not meet the valuation given.  In order words, prospective buyers are forced to top up.  In other words, transacted prices r consistently above valuation.

2. Yes, we all know about the escalating prices of 30% blah blah blah....enuf said.

3. There are more people in the property forum vs. the stock market forum, compared to 3 years ago smile.gif (couldn't resist typing this)

4. Developments are coming up at a frenzied pace now.  Almost frightening really.....with new psf barriers being breached.

5. Again, just based on anecdotal evidence from some bankers - Year 2013 will see the country's highest number of VP-ed units in history.  Fu-yoh! That's when we'll really see if people can flip so easily, or perhaps even service their installments.....
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1. Mostly with parents support in case of major top up. New launch easy entry, DIBS, few years later salary already triple sure can afford.

4. So true, very much similar to US before the bubble pops.

5. 2013 will be interesting, don't think the game could last until 2013 though.
cranx
post Aug 7 2011, 10:04 PM

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A lot of the advice given for own stay buyers is that it is OK to buy as long as they could afford it.

However the person giving advice often do not educate the young buyers on what is affordable. When the Euphoria is still there, people just assume the game will go on forever. House prices will perpetually rise vertically to stratosphere and cheap interest rates will stay for good.


cranx
post Aug 7 2011, 10:08 PM

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QUOTE(ayha2009 @ Aug 7 2011, 09:59 PM)
Nego now and get a semid 40x90 just lower than 500k in Klang.
rclxms.gif  icon_idea.gif
Next 6 months will be a good indicator for those prop that over price like mont kiara, setia alam especially terrace and condo. Good luck to all of us.
Next year is good time to buy.. When those have no holding power run out of bullet. Normally will take them 6-9 months to empty their reserve. Bank also need 3-6months notice before auction.
So my calculation is that hot area will have firesale around 2q of 2012.
Now is good time to look around for your love unit and wait for the time.
Same like share, next year is good time to buy bluechip property.
Hope im right here.
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the biggest bubble is actually Desa Park City.
what will be the precursor of a bursting bubble? when there is little to no subsale transaction while the price is still sky high.





cranx
post Aug 7 2011, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(ayha2009 @ Aug 7 2011, 10:16 PM)
It is just the beginning. For business man need money. Do u think they let go of the property or their business.
for the pass few years they have been buying lots of unit. Do you think they still got bullet?

Who else got bullet? Singaporean or malaysian work in singapore? Do u think they not worry that they loss their job like 2008 time? I think few months later it will be buyer market and not sell market. Be patient....

China investor? Worst that they need to cover own problem in china. Hong kong? Same

Antie uncle that buy for their kids. Just no choice but bite the bullet lo..

Do I miss anything here? In short, how many of u still sing the up up song.
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Business man / companies went into properties because it 'was' a good place to park the excess cash. This category is not that risky.
The most risky is salaried worker, buying into the frenzy with maximum leverage. This group will be the catalyst for the coming crash.

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