if it is the double dip they say in usa like they've been saying for months, the dip can go another 6m, manybe another 15% down.
i wouldn't do anything with the assumption it'll be bright and sunny tmrw.
becos the problems aren't going away anytime soon, no major solutions in sight.
those quantitive easing, gomens buying back bonds only serve to postpone inevitable - the western world has overspent and overborrrowed.
current turmoil is just a confirmation of the underlying problems, no nation spared.
end of it all, some will be forced to default, others lose, everyone's poorer.

bolehsia's problems not going anywhere also. announcement of lrt/mrt, groups fighting over contracts will grow gdp, incr income?
bolehsia is not all that different. if you look at the gomen and household debt as %gdp, bloehsia figs are looking like spain and italy!
if gdp not growing fast, how long can debt, car and prop bbb go on?

first shot fired:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...s-gdp-forecast/

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 8 2011, 04:42 PM

the price on iproperty and agent quote price area all artificial price...

eg real case
price of 2 storey link terrace in Bandar Utama, owner bought back in 2010 for 680k and now 2011 put up for sale for 1.5m non-nego, when other units advertise at 800k+

this is crazy... i think the owner hope to find an idiot with huge pile of cash to pay upfront...n who will hv that cash and be an idiot???

friend, from your reply, it would seems your main priority is very self-centred and to stroke your bruised ego earlier on.
you wanna be right for the sake of being right without regarding others.
friend, give it a real thinker. do you think that your neighbours will be equally kind or people around you are gonna care less when economy crashes.
when economy downturns, my first thoughts are always for the safety of all. it ain't no joke when people become desperate. even a doctor or a lawyer or an accountant when push to the limit might just very well commit crime to safeguard their own interests.
am not saying you are wrong by your couldn't care less attitude. but please be sensitive to others who could be losing a lot of $$$.
when economy booms, i'm happy for others too even though i might not make a penny out of it.

The Desa Park City's Amelia terrace launched at about 1mil, and now asking 1.8mil for a double storey terrace! Only fool will pay 80% more than launch price in short 2 years, I suspect many insiders simply took up those units before launch and resale them once construction complete.

Anyone has data about the total housing loan size in Klang Valley? As far as I know, when the loan size in the previous months/quarters shrunk, the house price would fall after that period. This is a good indicator for when the tide will turn.

This post has been edited by debtismoney: Aug 8 2011, 08:02 PM

So, what you guys think we should wait and see or still buy...

Interest is high, new launch price is too high for regular Malaysian to own it and I doubt we have so many foreigner within these few years plus recent economy problem from US and Euro...

[quote=cranx,Aug 8 2011, 12:22 AM]Business man / companies went into properties because it 'was' a good place to park the excess cash. This category is not that risky.
The most risky is salaried worker, buying into the frenzy with maximum leverage. This group will be the catalyst for the coming crash.

[/quote]

Ironically, I think the main cause of our property frenzy was low/negative real interest rate during Badawi era, the rich didn't have to park their excess cash on properties if they could earn good interest return on term deposit.

In China, everyone knows that they got empty buildings everywhere, why? Because they got negative real interest rate for a long period of time (official inflation rate far higher than interest earn on savings), the Chinese would rather hold an empty property than cash that is losing purchasing power everyday.

Without good interest rate to encourage savings/capital, our capitalism system would create bubble after bubble...

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Added on August 8, 2011, 8:13 pm

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Added on August 7, 2011, 10:44 pm
I think everyone know this good indicator.
When uncle antie talk in passer to buy share, means it is bubble in share market. It happen in 1997.
When uncle antie talk in pasar to buy prop, means it is bubble in property market. It happen for the pass 1or 2 year.
Does not need a rocket scientic to tell.
All agreed?

Good luck to those that buy last year and this year. Those are waiting to bite the bullet. Still in construction type...
Especially have to wait until it hand out next year.. Like frog in the boiling water... Slowly slowly.... When notice, already burn.....

[/quote]

Totally agree! When everyone rushes to property investment, you better get out, the herd will get slaughtered.

People are queuing the night before property launch day, and snap up all units within hours, some properties are even fully taken up by insiders before launch. This maniac is a sigh of bubble top. Beware folks.

This post has been edited by debtismoney: Aug 8 2011, 08:13 PM

Take it this way, GOLD is money that the central banks can't dilute, they can't print GOLD, can't they? In this tough time ahead, GOLD should be a very good inflation hedge. All cash holders will lose a lot of their purchasing power, the only way the Eurozone/US to get out of the debt hole, is to devalue their currency in order to lower their debt load.

right, they can't print or make gold!
gold has been the haven for the last 3-4 yrs, worldwide.
from <usd1000 per troy oz to >1700.
up 3% today which tells us usd will go down again.
our gomen will clap hands n say rm very strong, very special - dunno what people will believe that.
gold is up because everyone expected and still expect usd to go down.
despite lower usd, gold's return has been incredible.
gold will continue to do well - there is only silver to compete with it.
props has done very well in most places, will do well in places short of props.
usa, bolehsia, shortage or not?
just count the launches for condos, sohos, offices, shoplots and malls!

hey guy,
from the page 30 onward ,I could see most of you posting the comment here from getting toward negetive view about property market....remmebr pro market all about confident and positive view.
read this topic
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1988111
Banks are tightening the credit suppy!, Beware! (Financial)


Yes,if the market have a bit of crash of couse you can have a bargain to buy.....but you should see the whole picture,perhap the bank not lending again to the small business to survive or creat the job just like 2008,people losing the job wherether you are banker,lawyer or factory worker.....this link to US and EU slower growth,becouse malaysia the economy all most base on itse exporting ,it all about domino effect situatioan here.....
so do you think your self still have that buy buy buy mode going on even in the hard time when the bubble bust.....


one comment those people quien to buy or to put down that downpayment when it first luanch well good luck to them......what if the next 12 month or so the malaysia slower growth then the business will lay off staff that another domino effect as well as to these people.....can you see that the whole picture?

stock markets in Europe and US continued to fall on 8 August.

if u go iprop expo @midvalley last weekend u could see many projects throw disc% + free s&p + dibs. Even mahsing's m-city is throwing.

speculators will push it till crash.... global recession is not too far away...

gud question, this... even if this is it, prop prices not gonna be slide immediately. the last time dow went from 14000 to 7000, it was >1/2 year.
i would think some signs might be:
.slow down of new launches, esp >800k (or maybe 500k?)
.more reports of lackluster takeup rate of new launches
.developer new launches little or no price incr and with more freebies
.freehold houses takeup rate decline (they are traditionally the most resilient type)
.reduction of subsale transactions (data hard to find, maybe can check more agents)
again, some prop types, some areas will be affected first and more than others.
we'll see... i think not so soon. maybe in 3m time.
we'll still be here...

been waiting for the property price to come down since 5 years ago.
instead it went higher and higher.
guess it will never come down.
even if it did, it will only drop to as much as last year.
so better buy at the earliest possible.

I think the previous poster is just saying he is happy that he got his prediction right. Whether he wants the economy up or down is out of his control He is happy he got it correct. What's wrong with that? Maybe be you lose alot in share, that is why you are so emotional when you heard him say he is happy that he got it his prediction right.

You think he is so powerful? He can talk up or talk down the economy and it will just happen to his prediction? Anyway, we are all in this forum with our own guessing game, what's wrong if he feels happy when he got his prediction correct?

Dow plunges more than 634 points after downgrade
Asia will most probably see another day of bloodbath
Wonder in months to come will developer and banks defer their launching dates and alter financing package respectively.

Actually if the economy really crashes, the best position we can be is to own our own house to stay and have some gold bars lying around. No need to worry about installment payments to banks cause everybody will be defaulting and banks will probably go under as well before they come to re-possess our houses.

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Added on August 9, 2011, 9:02 amActually I also feel the down cycle has already begun, and normally a down cycle will last 6 to 12 months. Therefore I have estimated that a good entry would be around 2H 2012. What you guys think?

This post has been edited by lch78: Aug 9 2011, 09:02 AM

http://www.starproperty.my/PropertyScene/P...yNews/13889/0/0

Mixed outlook for property in H2

-The outlook of the property market is mixed, with developers reporting firm sales while property agents report tell-tale signs of a slowdown in certain market segments.

-Rahim & Co executive chairman Datuk Abdul Rahim Rahman said: “The market is giving a mixed indication, but what is happening in the United States and Europe is very serious and will have an effect on this part of the world. For example, the take-up rates of newly-launched condominiums have been very encouraging with more than 60% sold just a few months after launching. However, on the rental market, leasing has been less active and rental rate has not increased that much.”

-Senior vice-president Gerard Kho of real estate consultancy Reapfield, reckoned that the market might be rather flat when compared with the first half of this year and the whole of last year. The market during the last 18 months have been exceptionally buoyant and the full impact of the US-Europe problems were not factored in by the market then.

-he said the prices of landed units would continue to go but they are seeing a disparity between asking price and transacted price widening. This disparity was seen a couple of months ago, he said. Prices have gone up compared with the first half of this year but the increase was less.

-As for the condominium market, excluding the KLCC and Mont’ Kiara, prices have not gone down and rental remains strong. Kho said prices were flat in the Mont’Kiara and KLCC market.

-“But they are not going for fire-sale prices,” he said.

-Kho said in terms of market activities, the first half of this year was the most buoyant compared with the Jan-June 2009 and Jan-June 2010 periods.

-As for the healthy take-up rates, this may largely be attributed to the attractive lending terms offered by the banks together with the various rebates offered by developers.

It is very likely the US Federal Reserve will announce QE3 (or call something else) tonight, they simply need a reason before they can print more money, what reason is better than the world stock markets plunge!

I suspect this round of market correction will not be more than 25%. Buy GOLD and SILVER before they steal/dilute your cash savings by inflation!

If the FED announces QE3 tonight, GOLD/SILVER will spike up, we'll see... hmm

Many can already smell QE3. My first entry to gold somewhere early June this year. Just couldn't imagine the rate it have moved up since then! Could be a little late but based on gold expert's analysis it's still going to be somehow bullish. Keeping finger's crossed