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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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godutch
post Apr 25 2011, 06:46 PM

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If the property prices go beyond the reach of average people, then the poor will suffer even more. As the income gap widen, i don't think the rich can enjoy charging whatever rentals they wish because people will go to the street and protest, maybe what is happening now in the middle east and north africa will happen in M'sia ?

This post has been edited by godutch: Apr 25 2011, 06:48 PM
IMHO
post Apr 25 2011, 10:17 PM

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this tag line "bubble burst".. makes me wonder what it actually means. M no economist but in malaysia our bankers r very safe and play safe.
So what i see is over supply situation. n with these comes many vacant units due to speculators. The longer the owner hold and gets frigthen the rental will bcom lower. Prices will not crash but slight adjustments.<10%. Bcos property prices will always increase due to land n material cost increase.
buyers have to do homework and not just buy blindly. sellers now simply cry out high prices, n some stupid fish will catch the bait blindly.
there r some criteria to calculate properties i.e land cost to location, bult-up quality cost psf.
if u find a place u intend to stay and the price is right (say 150-200psf for good apartment / 250-350psf gd condo) then go for it, so long as u can affort it.


Added on April 25, 2011, 10:26 pmand also, with new developments asking 500-650 psf.. i would think thrice. developer cost around 200psf.
i would wait for distressed seller when time comes. like recent auction on condos around KLCC area by foreign owner and shops at solaris MK.
when u pay premium price it will take long time for market to catch-up.

This post has been edited by IMHO: Apr 25 2011, 10:26 PM
bluesfingers
post Apr 25 2011, 10:50 PM

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Why dont we use this as a reason to demand higher salary? or even gang up with others to demand salary raise biggrin.gif
Instead of hoping the economy crash which is definately beyond human controls.
cherroy
post Apr 25 2011, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 25 2011, 04:23 PM)
So what does our esteemed moderator think about our residential property market? Are you a bull or a bear?
*
What we must choose to be either bull or bear?

QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 25 2011, 04:52 PM)
Anyone listen to BFM radio recently? The business, finance radio station.

This morning they interviewed the CEO of Economic Transformation Program. Just few days ago they interviewed the CEO of LHDN inland revenue.

Believe all should know now that only 10% of working population paying income tax. Remaining 90% below taxable income. (LHDN CEO trying to twist and ignore the fact, making ass out of himself in radio station, utterly unbelievable such thing can happen. Oh boy, Malaysia truly Asia mah!)

What shocking to hear that out of 10% paying income tax, only 10% paying 15% above taxes. In short, only 1% paying 15% and above tax bracket! If you are above 15% tax bracket, congrats! You and the top 1%, though the fact is take home income nothing to shout if you stay in KV.

I still firmly believe all being con by conment. But tat doesn't imply one big bubble burst, but possibility of mini bubbles in few areas. Thks to conment lah. 1Malaysia!  icon_idea.gif
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It is about personal level only, it did not mention the corporate level.
Lot of wealthy person has wealth under company level.
In fact, corporate/company tax rate is lower than personal tax rate.
Corporate tax - 25%
Personal max tax - 26%

Eg.
You can be a company CEO that own 99.9% of the company, you can have 50k annual remuneration, but company is earning millions of profit.

While holding properties under company potential has more advantage compared to individual holding, in term of expenses incurred, tax relief etc.

Has you seen an apartment or a project, a company bought 8-10 unit or almost whole floor or 2?
I had seen before.




property101
post Apr 26 2011, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(bluesfingers @ Apr 25 2011, 10:50 PM)
Why dont we use this as a reason to demand higher salary? or even gang up with others to demand salary raise  biggrin.gif
Instead of hoping the economy crash which is definately beyond human controls.
i would like to see you do it tongue.gif tell me if it works, i will do the same to my boss too
lch78
post Apr 26 2011, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(bluesfingers @ Apr 25 2011, 11:50 PM)
Why dont we use this as a reason to demand higher salary? or even gang up with others to demand salary raise  biggrin.gif
Instead of hoping the economy crash which is definately beyond human controls.
*
Don't think anyone like to see an economic crash...
TheDoer
post Apr 26 2011, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 25 2011, 05:36 PM)
2 is quite high class condo and 1 is like very old.. look alike malay condo..
so around my place.. the occupancy rate is quite low as well.. Surprised me that those owner can tahan that long with no tenant help paying the monthly installment..
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Ah... that's a money sink hole. I hope they have enough to dump in. rolleyes.gif
Bobby C
post Apr 26 2011, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 25 2011, 11:35 PM)
What we must choose to be either bull or bear?
It is about personal level only, it did not mention the corporate level.
Lot of wealthy person has wealth under company level.
In fact, corporate/company tax rate is lower than personal tax rate.
Corporate tax - 25%
Personal max tax - 26%

Eg.
You can be a company CEO that own 99.9% of the company, you can have 50k annual remuneration, but company is earning millions of profit.

While holding properties under company potential has more advantage compared to individual holding, in term of expenses incurred, tax relief etc.

Has you seen an apartment or a project, a company bought 8-10 unit or almost whole floor or 2?
I had seen before.
*
Yup, tat's what some experts do when the elevate to the next level, form a Sdn Bhd. Main purpose to be eligible for tax relieve. Check v our Pai Sifu if he his around lah. Heard he was trying to acquire the entire block .. hehe tongue.gif

Personal 26%? You are right for 2010, ref to:- http://www.hasil.gov.my/goindex.php?kump=5...it=5000&sequ=11

Again, question is what is the percentage of CEO vs average jones. 1 vs 500? So your are focus on the top 0.01%. Micro Minority vs majority.

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Apr 26 2011, 09:58 AM
kh8668
post Apr 26 2011, 09:46 AM

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Tuesday April 26, 2011
Cost of hiring maids on the rise
By NELSON BENJAMIN
nelson@thestar.com.my


JOHOR BARU: The Government should look into allowing maids to be recruited from more countries as the cost of hiring them is getting expensive.

Malaysian Indian Business Association chairman P. Sivakumar said the Government should consider allowing maids from India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Myanmar.

“We should not depend on countries like Indonesia and Cambodia as it can cost up to RM8,000 to get a maid.

“This does not include the monthly salary,” he said here yesterday.

Sivakumar said both husband and wife had to work these days due to the increasing cost of living, and maids played a critical role especially in taking care of their children at home.

“By making it expensive to hire maids, many women will have to stop working to take care of their children.

“This way, we are losing good talent that can contribute towards the country's growth and economy.

On the memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the recruitment of maids from Indonesia, Sivakumar hoped the Government would not sign a lopsided MoU which favoured Indonesia.

Sivakumar said Singapore was able to get maids as it did not rely on just a few countries.

On language or cultural problems faced by maids from other Asian countries, he said this could be overcome by on-the-job training from their employers.

He was responding to Human Resources Minister Datuk Dr S. Subramaniam's announcement that the MoU with Indonesia would be signed at the end of May.




Apa pun naik harga....
it.fusion
post Apr 26 2011, 12:52 PM

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Really hoping that there will be oversupply...and low demand for those super expensive houses... and the price drop like water biggrin.gif

i still wonder where those money goes ? goverment tax ? how come last time a house is 200K and now it is rm 1.2 million ?
this is really crap sad.gif
kh8668
post Apr 26 2011, 04:21 PM

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Published: Tuesday April 26, 2011 MYT 2:38:00 PM
Malaysian households use almost half their income to pay off debts
By JOSEPHINE JALLEH

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=..._medium=twitter

GEORGE TOWN: The Consumers Association of Penang (CAP) revealed that Malaysian households are spending about half of their income to pay off their debts.

CAP president S.M. Mohamed Idris said the Malaysian household debt service ratio (the ratio of the debt payments to disposable income) of 47.8% last year was higher than the acceptable debt service ratio of 30% or one third of a household income used to pay of debt.

“After paying off the debt, there is not much left to spend on food, transport, education and emergencies.

“The biggest portion of the Malaysian household debt goes to paying off housing loans, passenger car loans, personal use, securities purchase and credit cards,” he said in a press conference Tuesday.

He added that the loans taken by each household in Malaysia was, on average, 1.4 times more than its household income.

“Looking at the problem from the ratio of household debt to disposable income, this ratio is 140.4% for Malaysia, one of the highest in the world, above that of Singapore at 105.3%, USA at 123.3% and Thailand at 52.7% in 2009,” he said.

He explained that the rising household debt restricted the government's monetary policy.

“The growth in personal consumption driven by debt, rather than by income growth, is not sustainable and will be derailed with an increase in interest rates and inflation.

“While today's non-performing loan ratio is low at 2.3%, Bank Negara should not take too much comfort in this. This ratio can easily balloon when interest rates rise and growth falters leading to household insolvency,” he added.

Idris urged the government to start a public housing policy that provided affordable housing particularly in urban areas.

“It also needs to tighten the rules on car loans as well as stop advertisements for loans and credit cards that are not transparent about the costs involved,” he said.

He added that families with high household debts would be liable to suffer from stress, depression, mental problems, suicides and possible family break-ups.

sampool
post Apr 26 2011, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(it.fusion @ Apr 26 2011, 01:52 PM)
Really hoping that there will be oversupply...and low demand for those super expensive houses... and the price drop like water biggrin.gif

i still wonder where those money goes ? goverment tax ? how come last time a house is 200K and now it is rm 1.2 million ?
this is really crap sad.gif
*
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/162509

马币汇率攻顶却无助抑制通膨
行动党促政府解释钱到哪里?
CKHong
post Apr 26 2011, 05:36 PM

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household debt for malaysian is worrying... simply a jump of the BLR to 0.5~2% affect alot.. just read news.. foods in asia increase alot during this few years.. ><"
kh8668
post Apr 26 2011, 06:26 PM

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明年以後或硬著陸‧羅比尼看空中國經濟
財經拼盤 2011-04-25 19:15


新“末日博士”羅比尼估計,中國大概會在2013年後遭遇一場硬著陸。

羅比尼在Project Syndicate發表文章稱,硬著陸“事實上所有與過度投資有關的歷史場景――包括上世紀90年代的東亞地區所發生的一切――都會以一場金融危機和/或長期的低增長來謝幕”。

他表示,“中國內部到處充斥著在實物資本、基礎設施和不動產方面的過量投資。在一個訪問者眼中,證據就是那些光鮮亮麗卻旅客寥寥的機場和高速列車(這將減少45個計劃興建中的機場的客流量),通往偏僻之地的高速公路,數千座高大的中央與地方政府建築,空無一人的新城區,以及被迫關閉以避免引發全球價格下跌的嶄新鋁冶煉廠。”

沒有限死具體時間

英國《金融時報》表示,羅比尼竟然給偉大中國的崩盤確定了一個時間,真是膽大。過去20年間,有許多人做過類似的嘗試,但都遭遇慘敗。

“羅比尼很聰明,他並沒有限死具體時間,而且如果你對他的話進行重新措辭,你會發現他實際上是在說自己認為未來兩年中國不會遭遇硬著陸。”

有人反駁羅比尼的悲觀分析,指出中國的過度建設與過度投資已經持續了十幾年,而且每當投資與基礎設施似乎已經超量時,經濟增長又追趕了上來,消化了閒置產能。畢竟中國人口眾多。

另一些人或許還會指出,大部份建設項目的質量很差,這意味不到10年或20年,老舊的基礎設施就不得不被拆除,進行重建。

過度投資造成巨大浪費

不過,《金融時報》認為,羅比尼很可能是正確的,他關於中國對過度投資的沉迷最終將造成巨大浪費並導致未來經濟增長大幅放緩的論述也相當有說服力。

羅比尼在文章中說,任何國家都不可能擁有足夠的發展速度,足以在將50%的國內生產總值(GDP)重新投資的情況下最終避免遭遇巨大的產能過剩和令人憂心的不良貸款問題。

“繼續沿著這條投資導向的道路走下去,將使已經暴露出來的製造業、房地產和基礎設施產能飽和現象進一步惡化,並在固定資產投資增長無法繼續擴大的情況下加劇未來的經濟放緩。

但直到2012至13年領導層換屆之前,中國的政策制定者們或許都能在繼續罔顧可以預見的巨額成本的情況下,維持一個高增長率。”

星洲日報/財經‧2011.04.25

bluesfingers
post Apr 26 2011, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 26 2011, 04:21 PM)
Published: Tuesday April 26, 2011 MYT 2:38:00 PM
Malaysian households use almost half their income to pay off debts
By JOSEPHINE JALLEH

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=..._medium=twitter


“Looking at the problem from the ratio of household debt to disposable income, this ratio is 140.4% for Malaysia, one of the highest in the world, above that of Singapore at 105.3%, USA at 123.3% and Thailand at 52.7% in 2009,” he said.

*
doh.gif our household debt level worst than US shocking.gif
Our economy is heading the portal of HELL
kochin
post Apr 26 2011, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(bluesfingers @ Apr 26 2011, 06:31 PM)
doh.gif our household debt level worst than US shocking.gif
Our economy is heading the portal of HELL
*
if that's true, make sure it's hot!
so we can really fry and burn! rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

time to separate the man from the boys!
super911
post Apr 26 2011, 07:08 PM

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The rakyat is 'robbed' by the government due to policies benefiting the cronies. When our currency is down, things are going up in price. When our currency is up now, things are not getting any cheaper but more expensive. Public transport are not build property and thus, all of us need to buy a car. Because of protecting proton, we are forced to buy a cheap quality car with high price tag. Rakyat keep borrowing from the bank, government's cronies continue to telan us hidup hidup. Coming election, if we don't go for government change, we all sink ship together.
Bobby C
post Apr 26 2011, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(bluesfingers @ Apr 26 2011, 06:31 PM)
doh.gif our household debt level worst than US shocking.gif
Our economy is heading the portal of HELL
*
Bet most of the debt arise from buying new cars.

Buying properties at least you can assure over 5-10yrs, value worst case stagnant usually appreciate.

Buying car, when you drive out of showroom, you already lose easily 5-10%. Drive a BM & MB for 10 yrs you probably left 10% of the value, 90% guarantee lost excl. expenses/repair/insurance/road tax/toll etc etc.

Australia such an affluent nation rich with mineral, population less than M'sia, currency 3x, you see more Hyundai on the road, hardly and MB or BM to show off.

People here too immune to high price, unaware kena con by the stupid policies started in the '80.

Again, thks to this visionary Dr M and his Potong, AP, NAP etc etc. Now we are screwed, like this cannot, like tat cannot shakehead.gif


This post has been edited by Bobby C: Apr 26 2011, 07:20 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 26 2011, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(super911 @ Apr 26 2011, 07:08 PM)
Coming election, if we don't go for government change, we all sink ship together.
*
this change will not happen yet, the sinking deepens.
QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 26 2011, 07:11 PM)
Bet most of the debt arise from buying new cars.

no, cars are behind housing debt.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/breakin....mohamed-idris/
QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 26 2011, 06:40 PM)
time to separate the man from the boys!
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can only guess u r one of the privileged boys?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 26 2011, 07:25 PM
property101
post Apr 26 2011, 07:29 PM

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the household debt level does not necessary directly reflect / caused by property price
one's debt major portion may due to mortgage, that is no surprise as property IS SUPPOSED to be the most expensive purchase / debt
the high level of household debt mainly cause by people spending beyond their mean, buying expensive toy which depreciate in value, maxing out credit limit, repayment of personal loan
to solve the household debt level issue, measurement need to be taken to tighten credit card limit, tighten personal loan approval, educating public on their spending habit

This post has been edited by property101: Apr 26 2011, 07:30 PM

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