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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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Bobby C
post Apr 27 2011, 11:05 AM

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Proposed MRT walking distance from my condo. Am I happy? Sort off.

But I still want every single penny of our hard earned money accountable! vmad.gif


Cut and paste from email:-


Subject: FW: MRT Sungai - Buloh 150km


Would you believe it?

It cost #&^@% ,,!,, to build the Sungai Buloh MRT a distance of
ONLY 150km a walloping USD17B (RM53B) or a cost of
USD $133M per km

verses

China's Bejing - Shanghai (Fastest train in the World @350km per hour)
a distance of 1,318km ONLY USD22B or USD $16M per km ??????

Check the web below

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...32&sec=business

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing%E2%80...h-Speed_Railway

Another ploy to BANKRUPT the country!



ps:- the other day read in the news half the amount goes to land acquisition. Ok, tat works out to be around USD $133/2 = USD66.6M/km compares with China USD16M/km, assuming land in China is FOC, heard it FOC land in China!

Conment boleh lah. You win, we loss. rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Apr 27 2011, 11:23 AM
sampool
post Apr 27 2011, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 27 2011, 11:52 AM)
Unlike in a big way as same as pace of properties price.

Rental market is rather weak.

Properties price surge so drastically, has a lot to do with cheap money available, extreme low interest (make people withdraw saving/FD to invest in properties), inflation (eat up people saving).
Properties price surge is not because rental market is good nor rental yield is good which lead to people invested in properties.
*
the situation in my is like china.. prop prices high, but rental is cheap.
kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 27 2011, 11:05 AM)
Proposed MRT walking distance from my condo. Am I happy? Sort off.

But I still want every single penny of our hard earned money accountable!  vmad.gif
Cut and paste from email:-


Subject: FW: MRT Sungai - Buloh 150km


Would you believe it?

It cost #&^@% ,,!,, to build the Sungai Buloh MRT a distance of
ONLY 150km a walloping USD17B (RM53B) or a cost of
USD $133M per km

verses

China's Bejing - Shanghai  (Fastest train in the World @350km per hour)
a distance of 1,318km ONLY USD22B or USD $16M per km  ??????

Check the web below

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...32&sec=business

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing%E2%80...h-Speed_Railway

Another ploy to BANKRUPT the country!
*
that's because chinese labour is cheap and malaysian labour is expensive.
made in china versus made in malaysia mah... doh.gif
we are riding straight to hell. next stop, satan's residence!

property101
post Apr 27 2011, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 27 2011, 10:23 AM)
back to one of my shitty idea?! shocking.gif
*
yeah right, back to your shitty idea laugh.gif

reason are property price risen significantly, landlord will not be able to cover loan with rental. how long is the landlord willing to bleed cash? one landlord increase rental might not have effect, but how about when most of the landlord are already feeling the pain and they slowly increase rental? previously if the tenants find the rental is high, tenant look for somewhere else, but in this situation, everywhere rental has increased, tenant cannot afford to buy, the only option is to continue paying higher rental.

i remember a business guru in taiwan once said, things will always swing from one end to another. for example, when there are too much exclusive (expensive) restaurant in the market, affordable mamak will start mushrooming. in this context, when property price has increased to certain level, which indicates has reached the end of a swing, rental will be another end to rise

secondly is combo with government high income nation transformation, what is unaffordable today will be affordable tomorrow
kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 12:22 PM)
yeah right, back to your shitty idea  laugh.gif

reason are property price risen significantly, landlord will not be able to cover loan with rental. how long is the landlord willing to bleed cash? one landlord increase rental might not have effect, but how about when most of the landlord are already feeling the pain and they slowly increase rental? previously if the tenants find the rental is high, tenant look for somewhere else, but in this situation, everywhere rental has increased, tenant cannot afford to buy, the only option is to continue paying higher rental.

i remember a business guru in taiwan once said, things will always swing from one end to another. for example, when there are too much exclusive (expensive) restaurant in the market, affordable mamak will start mushrooming. in this context, when property price has increased to certain level, which indicates has reached the end of a swing, rental will be another end to rise

secondly is combo with government high income nation transformation, what is unaffordable today will be affordable tomorrow
*
nice analysis. but mamak is great at their disguise. selling sub-standard food at fair value price. but when compared apple to apple, we might end up paying more for mamak's food versus fancy restaurant.
nowadays, cheap food is McValue lunch! many years ago, i recall fast food are premium food for myself. can only eat once in a blue moon. nowadays, it's one of the cheapest choice for me (but extremely unhealthy lor).

just to add on, when a tenant starts jumping and looking for lower rent, they might be sacrificing some comfort in their selection. eg. say rm1k ro rm800 per month. maybe they jump from a better apartment to a slightly worse off apartment with smaller built up.
in reality, he might be paying rm200 less but he's paying a higher psf basis.

cherroy
post Apr 27 2011, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 12:22 PM)
yeah right, back to your shitty idea  laugh.gif

reason are property price risen significantly, landlord will not be able to cover loan with rental. how long is the landlord willing to bleed cash? one landlord increase rental might not have effect, but how about when most of the landlord are already feeling the pain and they slowly increase rental? previously if the tenants find the rental is high, tenant look for somewhere else, but in this situation, everywhere rental has increased, tenant cannot afford to buy, the only option is to continue paying higher rental.

i remember a business guru in taiwan once said, things will always swing from one end to another. for example, when there are too much exclusive (expensive) restaurant in the market, affordable mamak will start mushrooming. in this context, when property price has increased to certain level, which indicates has reached the end of a swing, rental will be another end to rise

secondly is combo with government high income nation transformation, what is unaffordable today will be affordable tomorrow
*
There are a lot of vacant condo, apartment waiting for tenants.
You can go to see those mid, mid high range apartment, you can see mostly are not not >80% occupied.
There are few condo I personally know, after 3-4 years completed, the apartment just being left like that, occassionally got tenant for a few months, then missing again, and left vacant for a year or two.
But the condo price shoot up 70-80% in this 3-4 years time, or precisely after completed until now (about 4 years)

This will keep rental rate supress and not shooting like the same pace with properties.
Yes, rental may creep out a little but definitely won't be the same pace with properties price.
soongkm
post Apr 27 2011, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 12:22 PM)
yeah right, back to your shitty idea  laugh.gif

reason are property price risen significantly, landlord will not be able to cover loan with rental. how long is the landlord willing to bleed cash? one landlord increase rental might not have effect, but how about when most of the landlord are already feeling the pain and they slowly increase rental? previously if the tenants find the rental is high, tenant look for somewhere else, but in this situation, everywhere rental has increased, tenant cannot afford to buy, the only option is to continue paying higher rental.

i remember a business guru in taiwan once said, things will always swing from one end to another. for example, when there are too much exclusive (expensive) restaurant in the market, affordable mamak will start mushrooming. in this context, when property price has increased to certain level, which indicates has reached the end of a swing, rental will be another end to rise

secondly is combo with government high income nation transformation, what is unaffordable today will be affordable tomorrow
*
When you said the govt is trying to transform malaysia into a high income nation, what are the concrete steps that the govt has taken to increase the salary or income of public servant? And how will malaysia be transformed into a high income nation when you dun even have a minimum wage legislation? Also, how will / can the govt forced the private sector to increase the salary of their employees? So pls dun use terms and jargon just because najis and his msm keep on using it, without thinking the actual policies and procedures to implement them to actually reach their expected end results.
cherroy
post Apr 27 2011, 01:26 PM

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Minimum wages policy won't able to lead nation into high income.

If you set minimum wages at Rm1000, then those above Rm1000 is not going to be affected, same income.
Those earn Rm800, now getting Rm1000 due to minimum wages, but employer may feel profit margin being squeezed or no profit at all, so raise the product, the wages increase back to square 1.
Wages increase 20%, goods increase 20%, house increase 20%, you get zero benefit in the process.

High income is not about minimum wages.
High income is about your country able to produce more and more valued added product.
For eg.
Instead export timber log directly at Rm1000, now you set up local mill, furniture factory, turn the timber into high class furniture which can be export and sold at Rm5,000.
You valued added Rm4,000 locally, as compared export raw timber log Rm 1000
There is extra Rm4,000 opportunities created, money being earned, can be spreaded to more wages to more people locally.

Increase salary blindly or can mean straight away can turn country into high income earner without any output increment.
kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 27 2011, 01:26 PM)
Minimum wages policy won't able to lead nation into high income.

If you set minimum wages at Rm1000, then those above Rm1000 is not going to be affected, same income.
Those earn Rm800, now getting Rm1000 due to minimum wages, but employer may feel profit margin being squeezed or no profit at all, so raise the product, the wages increase back to square 1.
Wages increase 20%, goods increase 20%, house increase 20%, you get zero benefit in the process.

High income is not about minimum wages.
High income is about your country able to produce more and more valued added product.
For eg.
Instead export timber log directly at Rm1000, now you set up local mill, furniture factory, turn the timber into high class furniture which can be export and sold at Rm5,000.
You valued added Rm4,000 locally, as compared export raw timber log Rm 1000
There is extra Rm4,000 opportunities created, money being earned, can be spreaded to more wages to more people locally.

Increase salary blindly or can mean straight away can turn country into high income earner without any output increment.
*
mod is right.
i remember when working under my previous firm, my big boss constantly reminded me
"you must work harder and produce more and the salary adjustment will follow suit"
then we just thought it's typical boss saying.
now we realise that if we work harder and better, automatically transform to better profitability to company and translating to better pay and bonuses to the staff.
so until now, i still remember my boss preaching, work first, pay later. funny thing is somehow things are going smoother once i'd accepted the idea.
to those hoping for a payrise, make sure your company is in a position to do so.
AVFAN
post Apr 27 2011, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 27 2011, 01:26 PM)
Minimum wages policy won't able to lead nation into high income.

If you set minimum wages at Rm1000, then those above Rm1000 is not going to be affected, same income.
Those earn Rm800, now getting Rm1000 due to minimum wages, but employer may feel profit margin being squeezed or no profit at all, so raise the product, the wages increase back to square 1.
Wages increase 20%, goods increase 20%, house increase 20%, you get zero benefit in the process.

High income is not about minimum wages.
High income is about your country able to produce more and more valued added product.
For eg.
Instead export timber log directly at Rm1000, now you set up local mill, furniture factory, turn the timber into high class furniture which can be export and sold at Rm5,000.
You valued added Rm4,000 locally, as compared export raw timber log Rm 1000
There is extra Rm4,000 opportunities created, money being earned, can be spreaded to more wages to more people locally.

Increase salary blindly or can mean straight away can turn country into high income earner without any output increment.
*
productivity is the word.

i remember an expert said that if competitive productivity is factored into some industries, wages need to be cut by 20%. tongue.gif
property101
post Apr 27 2011, 02:16 PM

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i wouldnt be too negative about the high income transformation program, government has announced it not long ago, i believe it's only fair if we rakyat give them time to implement what they have promised to deliver.

i do recognize that politicians can say many things, but the point is they also can make things happen, especially they are the politicians in power
SUSwankongyew
post Apr 27 2011, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 02:16 PM)
i wouldnt be too negative about the high income transformation program, government has announced it not long ago, i believe it's only fair if we rakyat give them time to implement what they have promised to deliver.

i do recognize that politicians can say many things, but the point is they also can make things happen, especially they are the politicians in power
*
Actually I am very pessimistic about the chances of the present government successfully making that transition. The required changes are just too opposed to their core interests. Very broadly speaking, you need the following:

1. To woo back all those highly qualified Malaysians who are working overseas.
2. To award educational opportunities based solely on merit and to orient education solely towards subjects that are valued by the job market.
3. To ensure that the economy is competitive and that the best rewards go towards those companies that perform the best at satisfying their customers' need.

In short, everything is about meritocracy which the present government can never accept. Rewarding only cronies and those best connected to the government disgusts the most talented Malaysians and drives the best performing companies away. In their place, we have instead people whose main skill is boot-licking. At the same time, you waste students' time with moral education subjects and insistence on using the dead-end Malaysian language. What do you expect when you insult the best and most qualified Malaysians that they're not even real Malaysians and don't deserve a place in the country?

This post has been edited by wankongyew: Apr 27 2011, 02:36 PM
sampool
post Apr 27 2011, 02:36 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 03:16 PM)
i wouldnt be too negative about the high income transformation program, government has announced it not long ago, i believe it's only fair if we rakyat give them time to implement what they have promised to deliver.

i do recognize that politicians can say many things, but the point is they also can make things happen, especially they are the politicians in power
*
haha.. they also can bring us to holand wat... laugh.gif
kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 02:42 PM

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one of the saddest 'incentive' given to date was luring the overseas people coming back by giving them tax rebates.
to me, it's another demotivator for presently local people. especially good local people. indirectly, they are just saying outside=good, inside=no good.
by virtue of this incentive alone, i never felt more urge to venture outside.
classic case of bad implementation.
at least to muah.
lch78
post Apr 27 2011, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 27 2011, 03:34 PM)
Actually I am very pessimistic about the chances of the present government successfully making that transition. The required changes are just too opposed to their core interests. Very broadly speaking, you need the following:

1. To woo back all those highly qualified Malaysians who are working overseas.
2. To award educational opportunities based solely on merit and to orient education solely towards subjects that are valued by the job market.
3. To ensure that the economy is competitive and that the best rewards go towards those companies that perform the best at satisfying their customers' need.

In short, everything is about meritocracy which the present government can never accept. Rewarding only cronies and those best connected to the government disgusts the most talented Malaysians and drives the best performing companies away. In their place, we have instead people whose main skill is boot-licking. At the same time, you waste students' time with moral education subjects and insistence on using the dead-end Malaysian language. What do you expect when you insult the best and most qualified Malaysians that they're not even real Malaysians and don't deserve a place in the country?
*
Don't be pessimistic bro. Just don't put too much hope on the transformation. It is a good thing that the Gov can have such a plan in the first place. Just that saying and achieving it is totally different thing. I only expect min 50% achievement from the ETP to a max of 70%. I don't expect ETP to be successfully implemented at 100% also.

I guess every sane person can see that M'sia is going on a slow downhill train. But we have not reach the point of no return yet, so there is still hope for a rebound, I hope.. sweat.gif

Prop price going up with low rentals and people cannot afford it is due to the imbalances in the economic structure. Prop price increase is inevitable due to raw material price increase and inflation. Affordability remains low because our income has not really increase in tandem with inflation. The demand is still high due to young population but many can only afford to buy flats...

The expensive condos and houses are mostly purchased by the rich, and don't expect a mega sale due to current situation of low occupancy coz the rich also facing dilemma on where to put their money. Put in banks, the money got eaten slowly by inflation, so better to put in properties for it can provide stability and a better hedge against inflation.

This post has been edited by lch78: Apr 27 2011, 04:05 PM
blasto
post Apr 27 2011, 05:47 PM

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Our daily needs are increasing slowly like petrol, bit by bit no effect/complain, sekali 50-70cents sure jump but salary same.

Bit by bit inflation will cause the chain reaction, it's a matter of time & how long we can sustain. Kids expenses, tutions, books, needs etc... the population growing & time fly very fast.

If good location & price right tenants will continue to rent, landlord must save up & spend on tenant once a while. my 2cents...
Beth79
post Apr 27 2011, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 27 2011, 02:34 PM)
At the same time, you waste students' time with moral education subjects and insistence on using the dead-end Malaysian language. What do you expect when you insult the best and most qualified Malaysians that they're not even real Malaysians and don't deserve a place in the country?
*
some university grads are surprising. we recently had two girls come in with degrees, one works directly under me. they are not fresh grads and have been working in the market for a number of years. both of their salaries at their last employment were in the region of RM1500. i was shocked considering that they had worked 5 years in the market. once they started working, everything made sense. how can a degree graduate with 5 years working experience be unable to draft a simple one paragraph letter in English, not have basic mathematic skills and not know basic microsoft word rclxub.gif

if this is the standard of our grads nowdays, i am really not surprised that grads are unemployed.


Added on April 27, 2011, 7:49 pm
QUOTE(blasto @ Apr 27 2011, 05:47 PM)
Our daily needs are increasing slowly like petrol, bit by bit no effect/complain, sekali 50-70cents sure jump but salary same.

Bit by bit inflation will cause the chain reaction, it's a matter of time & how long we can sustain. Kids expenses, tutions, books, needs etc... the population growing & time fly very fast. 

If good location & price right tenants will continue to rent, landlord must  save up & spend on tenant once a while. my 2cents...
*
ya, good tenants can be "manja-ed" a bit. my former landlord (before i bought my own place) didnt raise my rent for 4 years cos at the beginning of every year i handover to him 12 postdated cheques for him to bank in monthly. that way i dont have to have the headache of running to the bank every month and he doesnt have to worry about late payment (plus none of the cheques ever bounced). rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by Beth79: Apr 27 2011, 07:49 PM
TSVeda
post Apr 27 2011, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE
I f you compare rental rates of property compare to their value, renting is more viable. The owner can't even cover the interest alone


Let's not generalise. Some properties, even at current prices, command enough rental to cover installments comfortably. No doubt some can't.

This post has been edited by Veda: Apr 28 2011, 06:20 AM
property101
post Apr 27 2011, 08:48 PM

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QUOTE(Beth79 @ Apr 27 2011, 07:44 PM)
some university grads are surprising. we recently had two girls come in with degrees, one works directly under me. they are not fresh grads and have been working in the market for a number of years. both of their salaries at their last employment were in the region of RM1500. i was shocked considering that they had worked 5 years in the market. once they started working, everything made sense. how can a degree graduate with 5 years working experience be unable to draft a simple one paragraph letter in English, not have basic mathematic skills and not know basic microsoft word rclxub.gif
our job market has changed so much, 20 years ago, a degree qualification belongs to someone who study really really hard
today, a degree is a norm, something that people expect you to have by default. not long ago, i was talking to my colleague, he was asking me when i am i going to get a master, as if it is something perfectly normal to do, something everyone is expected to have - but the fact is i have not even complete my degree tongue.gif
in the next 20 years, i foresee having a degree would be as normal as completing SPM

back to your 5 years working experience girl, i believe this really comes down to how much the person have the passion to improve himself. i know people who assume upon completing degree, he already knows all that he needs to know. the person has no intention to further educate himself. as some gurus said, you are either growing or dying, there is no standing still. the grad you mentioned might have the appropriate skill to enter job market 5 years back, but unfortunately she chosen not to further growing, therefore she is lacking behind the job market. this has a lot to do with the mentality rather than the education she received.

example here: assume there are 2 IT graduate, upon graduation, one decided to work in a small china man style company doing non IT related work (perhaps admin work) for salary RM1500/month, life is easy. another started to work in cutting edge IT firm, salary RM1500/month also, tasks are very challenging, life is hard. 5 years down the road, assuming both these graduate didnt change job, the first graduate work in a small firm has been promoted to be a supervisor with salary rm3000, while second graduate worked in IT firm might be earning rm5000. the bigger picture here is that although they both are university graduate, their skill set are totally different now. one's skill is way more valuable than another. and most interestingly is the person who worked in a small firm with admin work has wasted the skilled he acquired during his university time, he is merely 5 years more experienced (in a specific industry) compare to a fresh SPM graduate. while another grad who took the harder route initially leverage on his education that potentially lead him to soar.

in the job market today, instead of hiring the person with a good paper qualification and impressive number of working experience years, i would rather hire the person with the correct mentality for the productivity.

This post has been edited by property101: Apr 27 2011, 08:52 PM
TSVeda
post Apr 27 2011, 09:01 PM

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I'll also like to point out that to get a "comfortable" salary in Malaysia, a graduate needs to job hop quite a few times, and/or work for a profitable company that is willing to reward performance.




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