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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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IMHO
post Mar 2 2011, 01:06 PM

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Hi everyone,
Buying a prop is a long term investment, lately the prices have spiraled so high bcos of speculators and buyers who are “Kiasu”
No hard fact to buying, if for own use, buy on location and affordability. ( must have rserve for instalment for 1yr if out of job). Banks ask u to sign PA with loan, the moment u can’t service loan, yr prop is on the auction table. And when that happens all is lost.

Back in 2004, young couples buy into BU hses RM550-650K+, both have to combine income to survive. As time goes family add on and expenses increase. So stressed out living in upscale community (but got face..mah). Now increase RM750~850k but cannot cashout unless can afford another unit (yr best guess) or down-size(more cramp). So can’t benefit right now. Maybe later but with inflation everything so expensive.

When u buy expensive how much more do u expect it to increase? And if it does, can you cash-in and buy another? Unless u strike it rich or u downsize.
Therefore, buy slightly below yr capacity, u can save some and invest in next prop. Make such u have savings for rainy days (if out of job 6-12mths instalment, medical bills , insurance,etc,.)

Buy smart – developers are laughing to the bank and u can’t stop this unless u r smart and speculators are wiped-out . So the next best thing, be knowlegable.

Buying Bench mark (depand on location, eg here is puchong area)–
a) landed prop – land area cost RM 80-120psf (leasehold)
RM 120-180psf (freehold)
build-up cost RM 150-250psf(depend on layout &
quality of finishes)

b) high-rise prop – build-up mid-cost RM150 – 350psf(freehold) depend
of common area and facilities provided.
Critical would be parking facility.

Hope this info can help some.

IMHO
post Mar 2 2011, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Mar 2 2011, 01:24 PM)
y wan to wipe out speculators?  hmm.gif
we dun wan put moolah in fd earn peanuts, so we put moolah to hard work when u guys were wetting pants
coz recession is alwiz an opportunity

now the warren buffet wanna use his elephant gun
2 years ago, we speculators alredi using all our gun + water gun liao to buy, buy & buy  drool.gif
so now u guys late to the party & wanna blame speculators?  doh.gif
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no lah bro..not wipe them out , just to comment only cos not possible ... blush.gif
they play a big part in price increase lor... whistling.gif

like i said buy cos u need, invest when u can ....but buy/invest smart lor. icon_idea.gif

u remember b4 1997 property/ stock mrket crush, u talk to everone is into
stock market ..wah so easy make money, restaurant business oso so good.

bcos over-play oredi rclxub.gif
IMHO
post Mar 2 2011, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Mar 2 2011, 02:43 PM)
i tot chinese become less and less % in urban since dont want to get maaried or hv childred?
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rural areas has less earning opportunity....
so come to urban with more activity
IMHO
post Mar 3 2011, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Mar 3 2011, 03:13 PM)
Not exactly true. Things might change in future when people from urban moving back to rural.

Friend of mine staying in so call rural area and work part time as a broker. Personal property/land acquisition like every 3 mths. City folks like us can only dream of tat once every few yrs. If you are resourceful and got plenty of insights eg where the development going even when the land is still full of lalang, that where these 'genius' hit. Last thing they look for is when it has been developed into another KLCC or Mutiara, tat when they already gone far far pocketed heaps of profit.

Moral of the story, never look down at rural folks. You never know how full their bank account even only wearing slippers and riding motorbike. [tongue.gif]
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Man..it is not look down on rural pppl... icon_question.gif
Every human being have their purpose on earth
all are equal.....same flesh n blood icon_rolleyes.gif
Gosh i dream of owning a house out in the country
for retirement.... whistling.gif

it is just that there are fewer opportunity in rural areas. doh.gif
IMHO
post Mar 8 2011, 01:12 PM

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I would say in Japan the prices had reached a level much higher then the cost of construction... that is why it is at current levels in relation to cost...our current property prices are partly due to speculation...
Buyers/Investors should be smart and apply a bench mark and not just accept what the market offer... developers are all going highend bcos they can charge premium prices...and buyer are supporting such high prices...which are going to be like Japan in 1981.
Just my bench mark:-
in year 2000 price of land leasehold rm35 psf...now rm80-120psf.
it is reasonable if u factor in the landscape, roads, etc, provided by the housing scheme.
for building in 2000 , rm 80-150psf...now rm200-280psf...and material n labour cost only up 20-30%.
this indicate that the prices are at a high premium for developers..
and they are making a killing...

so when the buying stops the killing stops...

IMHO
post Mar 8 2011, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Mar 7 2011, 08:36 AM)
really?
i am aiming one very tempting subsale now...
oh my goodness
shud i wait?
but worry grab by other buyer... rclxub.gif
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use your judgement ..... if u can afford it and have saving
in event of downturn .

prices will always go up cos of inflation..but when u buy expensive
it will take longer for actual infaltion to catch-up..so property appreciation
will take longer.


Added on March 8, 2011, 1:27 pm1 Malaysia .....mah

U all "chap sang" lah...

who getting the alll the goodies....starting 5%

This post has been edited by IMHO: Mar 8 2011, 01:27 PM
IMHO
post Mar 10 2011, 08:15 AM

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household loans go up up up

maybe due to gov clamp down on "loan sharks" and
easy to get advance from banks.. brows.gif

This post has been edited by IMHO: Mar 10 2011, 08:17 AM
IMHO
post Mar 19 2011, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Mar 7 2011, 09:49 AM)
haha
u tot i am rich like those investors / speculators here meh?
i also a salary earner only
and also doing part time jobzzzzz
if price really drop
then i rugi my hard earn $$$, which earn with sweat and blood...

unsure.gif
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i do see current subsale prices coming down a littlle... icon_rolleyes.gif
if the BBB mentality hold a few months untl after election
prices will come down slightly. rclxm9.gif

property is about location... if it has limited or no supply oredi..

so go for it thumbup.gif if it is within your "means".....do not put yrself on the
fence of financial capabilities...always have emergency cashflow
in hand... whistling.gif


Added on March 19, 2011, 11:30 am
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 13 2011, 06:50 PM)
dun worry... they can only do this for so long. keep blowing the prop/constr section and nowhere else. when the debt levels, subsidies and inflation can't be sustained, there will be only high priced homes with few buyers as people need to first deal with food, transport, medical and education. only then will we see how prices will change. or how people will behave on the streets.
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i would seriously consider this comment... notworthy.gif

not when the gov doing is approv. loans and more loans..
to create sendiwara..... cool2.gif

stuff more money into their pockets and take out of country.. vmad.gif



This post has been edited by IMHO: Mar 19 2011, 11:30 AM
IMHO
post Apr 25 2011, 10:17 PM

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this tag line "bubble burst".. makes me wonder what it actually means. M no economist but in malaysia our bankers r very safe and play safe.
So what i see is over supply situation. n with these comes many vacant units due to speculators. The longer the owner hold and gets frigthen the rental will bcom lower. Prices will not crash but slight adjustments.<10%. Bcos property prices will always increase due to land n material cost increase.
buyers have to do homework and not just buy blindly. sellers now simply cry out high prices, n some stupid fish will catch the bait blindly.
there r some criteria to calculate properties i.e land cost to location, bult-up quality cost psf.
if u find a place u intend to stay and the price is right (say 150-200psf for good apartment / 250-350psf gd condo) then go for it, so long as u can affort it.


Added on April 25, 2011, 10:26 pmand also, with new developments asking 500-650 psf.. i would think thrice. developer cost around 200psf.
i would wait for distressed seller when time comes. like recent auction on condos around KLCC area by foreign owner and shops at solaris MK.
when u pay premium price it will take long time for market to catch-up.

This post has been edited by IMHO: Apr 25 2011, 10:26 PM
IMHO
post May 12 2011, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ May 11 2011, 11:13 AM)
Ya agree. REIT is likely unit trust or privatization, idea, concept & purpose are good, but implementation & real execution cannot work onelah (particulary in Bolehland)
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U r right! Bolehland cannot trust toouch. whistling.gif
I look overall these big property owners are "cashing out"..i.e Sumway (last yr) n YTL n if not wrong a few more now Pavillion.
This is to spread out the risk if market slow and BLR increase to the public on being listed. rclxub.gif

if make good manoey delist and corek empty and list again..like maxis.

Banks now very selective especially on commercial prop.

So think hard before investing.

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