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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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AVFAN
post Apr 25 2011, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE
With soaring prices, pressure on Najib to continue pumping subsidies

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/

Analysts and politicians believe that problems affecting the economy — distorted and inefficient markets, lack of competition, low wages and a weak ringgit — will be the biggest problem for the BN administration as the country heads into the next general election, speculated to be held by year end
more and more comments/reports like this coming out.

how long can gomen hold with these subsidies? when they give up or give up partially, price of everything except wages will rise like hell.
yes, inflation theoretically should push prop prices further up, but think again in our current local context...
at a certain point, many people will barely be able to afford the essentials - food, petrol, medical, edu, how to service hefty loans?
and if at that certain point, int rates forced to rise, what happens then?

majority of mysians rich-rich, continue to buy, any price for prop still buy?
which pops will take a hit first?
which ones will hold a little better?
which ones will still up-up-up... if any?
kochin
post Apr 25 2011, 01:23 PM

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some shitty idea:
1. subsidy reduced or removed. prices shoots through the roof.
2. property prices definitely beyond reach of 'normal' consumers. forced to rent from hereon. some even sell existing home to cater to new living cost.
3. all properties in malaysia held by 'affluent' people and started monopolising rental rates. rental rates starts shooting through the roof.
what happens next is anybody's guess.
terrifying but might be a reality in the making.
wwwcomment
post Apr 25 2011, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 25 2011, 01:23 PM)
rental rates starts shooting through the roof.
*
you are really funny.
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SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 25 2011, 02:20 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 25 2011, 01:23 PM)
some shitty idea:
1. subsidy reduced or removed. prices shoots through the roof.
2. property prices definitely beyond reach of 'normal' consumers. forced to rent from hereon. some even sell existing home to cater to new living cost.
3. all properties in malaysia held by 'affluent' people and started monopolising rental rates. rental rates starts shooting through the roof.
what happens next is anybody's guess.
terrifying but might be a reality in the making.
*
Walau kalau macam ini berlaku, wear my sport shoe lari kuat-kuat lor... tongue.gif
lowyat888
post Apr 25 2011, 02:23 PM

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the is alot of vacant property even at prime area.some at low price desperate to rent out due to many competitors around. alot still cannot rent out especially the bigger units. if rental rate goes up, think can wait for flees to come.
lch78
post Apr 25 2011, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(lowyat888 @ Apr 25 2011, 03:23 PM)
the is alot of vacant property even at prime area.some at low price desperate to rent out due to many competitors around. alot still cannot rent out especially the bigger units. if rental rate goes up, think can wait for flees to come.
*
This is so true especially at KLCC so called prime area. Most of the luxury condos there are actually empty, and still empty after many years. I can recall a few fitting such description:

1. Binjai (3 years as I know still empty)
2. Avenue K residence (Only one tower is built and still empty after many years)
3. Opal (Built for 2 years, occupancy very low)
4. Newly built Troika (No idea)
5. Others (I don't know the name of the condos)

A drive around KLCC areas at night will notice these buildings above are dark or only the corridors are brightly lit.



kh8668
post Apr 25 2011, 03:07 PM

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just called idaman residence and 3 kia peng management office:

idaman residence occupancy rate about 65%
3 kia peng claimed 85%.

lol...

anyone got any idea for the rest?

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 25 2011, 03:08 PM
cherroy
post Apr 25 2011, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 25 2011, 01:23 PM)
some shitty idea:
1. subsidy reduced or removed. prices shoots through the roof.
2. property prices definitely beyond reach of 'normal' consumers. forced to rent from hereon. some even sell existing home to cater to new living cost.
3. all properties in malaysia held by 'affluent' people and started monopolising rental rates. rental rates starts shooting through the roof.
what happens next is anybody's guess.
terrifying but might be a reality in the making.
*
1. This will make the property price goes even higher.
2. What is normal? 2K per month? 5k per month? For some senior post, 5K per month is normal for them.
3. Properties mainly held by rich and wealthy people and company, yes, possible scenario in making. But rental rate is not going up even got little only for residential properties. Commercial one, may be much more, but not on residential one.
Rental market is not that good actually.
SUSwankongyew
post Apr 25 2011, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 25 2011, 04:12 PM)
1. This will make the property price goes even higher.
2. What is normal? 2K per month? 5k per month? For some senior post, 5K per month is normal for them.
3. Properties mainly held by rich and wealthy people and company, yes, possible scenario in making. But rental rate is not going up even got little only for residential properties. Commercial one, may be much more, but not on residential one.
Rental market is not that good actually.
*
So what does our esteemed moderator think about our residential property market? Are you a bull or a bear?
kh8668
post Apr 25 2011, 04:41 PM

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OCR's Residence 8 almost sold out
Apr 25, 2011 - HomeGuru.com.my
Share | | Comment | E-mail to friend | Bookmark & Share Ong Chong Realty Sdn Bhd’s (OCR) 25-storey condominium project located off the Old Klang Road in Kuala Lumpur has nearly sold out since its launch in early January.

The Residence 8 @ Kuala Lumpur has attained a 70 percent take-up rate since January and the company is confident that its first condominium project is to be sold out by the end of 2011, said Bill Ong, Managing Director at OCR.

The freehold condominium project is located within the Old Klang Road and Jalan Puchong area and has a gross development value (GDV) of RM140 million.

The company is known for its niche luxury developments of up to 60 units per project in the Klang Valley. The Residence 8 will complete OCR’s portfolio of commercial, residential and other high-rise properties.

Comprising two blocks with a total of 308 units, the condominium project offers a two-in-one concept that gives the homeowner the option of owning “two properties for the price of one”. Ong noted that each unit at Residence 8 features dual entrances, one leading to a two-bedroom unit for families and the other leading to a studio space with an attached bathroom.

The concept also gives homeowners the option to either rent the studio or the two-bedroom unit, or both to create a roomy three-bedroom family home that is minutes away from downtown Kuala Lumpur, Subang Jaya, Sunway, Petaling Jaya and Puchong.

“We believe there is demand for such a concept, as homeowners today are looking for quality properties in prime locations that give them room to grow into and with the potential to offer good investment returns,” said Ong.

With seven units per floor, the size of the units ranges between 1,228 sq ft and 1,486 sq ft and are offered at prices starting from RM384,000.

The development’s facilities include gardens, a pool, sauna and gymnasium coupled with Residence 8’s three-tiered security system consisting of a state-of-the-art guardhouse, intuitive smart access to the lift lobby and year-round security guard service.




STILL BULL
tchtax
post Apr 25 2011, 04:42 PM

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I think if the govt goes through the economic reforms, there will be pain felt among the masses for some time. These reforms really should have been done long time ago.

Is this a process we have to go through to be more efficient and competitive..yes.
kh8668
post Apr 25 2011, 04:51 PM

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time to grab one

http://edm.iproperty.com/my/CIMB_25042011/index.html


Bobby C
post Apr 25 2011, 04:52 PM

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Anyone listen to BFM radio recently? The business, finance radio station.

This morning they interviewed the CEO of Economic Transformation Program. Just few days ago they interviewed the CEO of LHDN inland revenue.

Believe all should know now that only 10% of working population paying income tax. Remaining 90% below taxable income. (LHDN CEO trying to twist and ignore the fact, making ass out of himself in radio station, utterly unbelievable such thing can happen. Oh boy, Malaysia truly Asia mah!)

What shocking to hear that out of 10% paying income tax, only 10% paying 15% above taxes. In short, only 1% paying 15% and above tax bracket! If you are above 15% tax bracket, congrats! You and the top 1%, though the fact is take home income nothing to shout if you stay in KV.

I still firmly believe all being con by conment. But tat doesn't imply one big bubble burst, but possibility of mini bubbles in few areas. Thks to conment lah. 1Malaysia! icon_idea.gif

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Apr 25 2011, 04:53 PM
SUSwankongyew
post Apr 25 2011, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 25 2011, 04:52 PM)
Anyone listen to BFM radio recently? The business, finance radio station.

This morning they interviewed the CEO of Economic Transformation Program. Just few days ago they interviewed the CEO of LHDN inland revenue.

Believe all should know now that only 10% of working population paying income tax. Remaining 90% below taxable income. (LHDN CEO trying to twist and ignore the fact, making ass out of himself in radio station, utterly unbelievable such thing can happen. Oh boy, Malaysia truly Asia mah!)

What shocking to hear that out of 10% paying income tax, only 10% paying 15% above taxes. In short, only 1% paying 15% and above tax bracket! If you are above 15% tax bracket, congrats! You and the top 1%, though the fact is take home income nothing to shout if you stay in KV.

I still firmly believe all being con by conment. But tat doesn't imply one big bubble burst, but possibility of mini bubbles in few areas. Thks to conment lah. 1Malaysia!  icon_idea.gif
*
That's just an example of tax evasion though, not that Malaysians are poor. I don't think Malaysians in the Klang valley are poor. Many are businessmen and almost everyone has side income that isn't taxed.
cybermaster98
post Apr 25 2011, 05:27 PM

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What do you guys think of Pelangi Mont Kiara?
CKHong
post Apr 25 2011, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 25 2011, 01:23 PM)
3. all properties in malaysia held by 'affluent' people and started monopolising rental rates. rental rates starts shooting through the roof.
bro.. it is amazing how ur positive attitude towards our bolehland market..
malaysian need more ppl like u..
The place i'm renting.. i admit the occupancy rate is very high.. around 80% ++
but there's 3 condo's very near my place is like less than 30% occupancy rate..
2 is quite high class condo and 1 is like very old.. look alike malay condo..
so around my place.. the occupancy rate is quite low as well.. Surprised me that those owner can tahan that long with no tenant help paying the monthly installment..
rental rates shoot up.. i'm going to move to further away + cheaper place to rent..
let see how long the owner can tahan empty unit rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by CKHong: Apr 25 2011, 05:40 PM
kochin
post Apr 25 2011, 05:49 PM

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you guys are taking my comments too seriously. i oledi upfront say 'some shitty ideas' lah. i stated it here out of curiousity and fun's sake for discussion and debates.
BUT in all honesty, our rentals does not reflect the property prices. yields for most properties are very low (if compared to market value). so general conclusion is either property prices is too high or rentals are too low. you guys ought to analyse which of these would comes first?
i know a lot of you guys here are saying the former, but let's just not rule out the later too. when shit happens, it's really shitty.
Bobby C
post Apr 25 2011, 06:03 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Apr 25 2011, 05:09 PM)
That's just an example of tax evasion though, not that Malaysians are poor. I don't think Malaysians in the Klang valley are poor. Many are businessmen and almost everyone has side income that isn't taxed.
*
You are quite right, even if kena near max 27% tax also nothing much to shout if u ever see how businessmen wallop properties aft properties. Typical employees like to shout in forum but sky is actually limit. In fact, employees are all just kulis, if you can see how your tax money kena wallop by conment sad.gif

Just wonder percentage of self-employed vs employed. 5%? 2%?

Yup, else where got RM40 mil palace of Dtk Z, RM15 mil place of formal MB?..

godutch
post Apr 25 2011, 06:17 PM

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i think people start to "think" now b4 the just jump in, that's why we have many mixed reports lately:

http://www.homeguru.com.my/property-news/2...to-home-buyers-

KL property less attractive to home buyers?
Apr 25, 2011 - HomeGuru.com.my
Share | | Comment | E-mail to friend | Bookmark & Share Kuala Lumpur’s residential property market sentiment is a blend of optimism and concern as property prices continue to rise. However, it is becoming less attractive to the average home buyer, according to DTZ’s latest Property Times KL first quarter report.

“Developers are generally optimistic with planned new launches. However, with prices and affordability moving in different directions, the market may enter into an uncertain patch before settling into a more discernible trend,” DTZ said.

Higher land prices and construction costs naturally spell higher property prices. Additionally, sustained liquidity and the momentum to lower interest rates are also contributing to the price hikes.

“It is unknown whether the latest revisions on the margin of financing on third property purchases and a reduction in banking liquidity through the increase in statutory reserves will rein in runaway prices,” noted DTZ in the report.

The underlying demand for more affordable property is increasing, adding to the proposed billion-ringgit mass rapid transit (MRT) project that will provide easier access to sites situated far from the city centre.

“A recent survey of completed projects around the KLCC area revealed that occupancy ranged from a low of about 10% to a high of 80%, with an average 56%, an issue that investors should be wary of,” DTZ said.

As for KL condos, it remains stable at RM603 psf with KLCC property averaging at RM910 psf. The soft launch in March of the Capers at Sentul by YTL Land & Development Bhd saw an average price of RM600 psf, a new benchmark for the area.

The projects to be completed in H1 this year are Sentul 1, Clearwater Residences, Kiara 3 & 9 and Sunway Palazzio.

“Future supply of prime condominiums in KL will mostly come from outside the city centre,” the report said.

DTZ said the office market will remain soft in the next few years. Average prime office rents increased slightly to RM6.12 psf per month in Q1 2011 from RM5.97 psf per month in Q4 2010. With the anticipation of new supply in the pipeline, office rents continue to be under pressure. Current occupancy rate rose from 86.4 percent in Q4 2010 to 86.9 percent in Q1 2011, which contributed to the 240,000 sq ft added to available stock in KL.
22222222
post Apr 25 2011, 06:43 PM

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在80年代至90年代初,產業發展蓬勃,人們“一窩蜂”瘋狂購買產業,製造業出現泡沫,之後產業市場跟隨下挫,產業泡沫因此破裂,在亞洲少數一些市場的特定產業領域,至今仍未完全恢復元氣。

投資、購買產業是一件令人欣喜的事,它也可能是你有生以來金額最大宗的交易,即可保值、也可充當退休後的收入來源,還可對衝通膨,避免現金貶值的衝擊。

但是投資、置業,也不能在水平太高時進場,萬一泡沫真的形成,並且在支撐不住時爆破,燒傷的是我們這些本金不大的購屋者。

確保能承擔所需開銷

購買產業之前,首先應進行規劃及預算,確保能夠承擔投資買房所需的開銷,例如律師費、印花稅、房貸保險、每月份期等成本,即使在產業市場不景氣時,也有能力支撐。

不論是經濟好景或市況欠佳,都會有人進行產業投資,只是投資的產業類型稍有不同;在市場好景時,商業產業、零售產業的交易蓬勃,在市況欠佳時,住宅產業依然會有零星交易,不少人趁這個時候購買一些單位,準備提昇自己居住質量。

投資商業產業的回酬,一般來說,比住宅產業理想,當然,風險也相對較高,這與投資其他工具,原理是一樣的。

由於巴生河流域一些有地房產已上漲到相當高的水平,若買來投資賺取租金,其實並不劃算,假設資本回酬較可觀,一年內能取得至少10%的漲幅,那麼獨資、合資或集資購買,仍是可行的計劃。

過去一年來,巴生河流域部份地區,商業、住宅產業的價格,皆取得可觀漲幅,少數一些住宅社區,漲幅達到30%,甚至更高漲幅,令許多在一年前遲疑的投資者有些懊惱。

表面看來,雖然是遲了一些,但投資產業,儘管說時機是關鍵,但這並不意味接下來沒有適當的投資機會,只是我們需轉移鎖定的地點,A區成本太大了,我們需要調整,轉向B區、C區或其他有增值潛能的地點。

投資的成本升高,回酬自然相對降低,本大的投資,除非是回酬非常可觀,否則,結算起來並不劃算。

產業投資若回酬不到8%,其吸引力自然褪色,畢竟這是一筆金額較大的投資,至少要比定期存款的回酬高一倍,同時,也不能比公積金儲蓄遜色。

附帶許多隱藏成本

有產業投資經驗的人士,相信會同意這樣的看法,產業投資附帶許多隱藏的成本,每月的分期付款、每月附加的利息,大筆首期錢的投入,個人投資其他工具的選擇減少,都是數目可觀的支出。

普通市民的小投資者,鎖定產業投資,數額最好在20萬令吉之下,如果一間在50萬至80萬令吉之間的雙層排屋,可收取的租金,只不過1千800令吉至2千200令吉,嚴格來說,一點也不值得;假設是共管公寓,可以不只這個價位,但別忘了屋子需要支付數目在300至500令吉之間管理與維修費,扣除每月這筆管理費,剩下的租金凈額,可能不足2千令吉。

反觀一間價格在20萬令吉以內的房屋,租金在850令吉至1千200令吉之間,兩者之間幅度的對比,其實不會比上面所提的例子遜色。

因此,大家在投資產業之前,一定要認真計算與思考,不要因為有地房屋越來越少,擔心房價一再走高,“一窩蜂”跟隨進場,然後將價格不斷炒高,別忘了,最後受牽累的其實是自己的小輩們。

星洲日報/財經‧2011.04.24


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