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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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KChan
post Jan 27 2014, 12:01 AM

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Well business is different. If your business is small amount, they sure sue till you hangus. But if you owe them hell lots of money!!! They have to ensure your continue success so they can recover the money lar.

But make sure to have debts in the region of few hundred millions lar. Then the bank won't dare to sue you till you bankrupt. Cause writing off few hundred million is painful.

Also, property go lelong easier to sell cause got ready buyer. But business lelong no body want.

By the way, I'm not sure how property lelong price works yet. But I got a friend who is in car lelong business. Heard from him that the bank will put the car on auction at the outstanding loan amount. If this auction no body buys, they will lower a few thousand or % as I don't remember the details.

This go on until the car successfully auctioned off. To the bank they just want to recover their money or part of it. If the auctioned off price is lower than the outstanding loan, then the owner is still liable to the bank on the balance. As for car lelong, they held it every week. So if week after week nobody buy, it gets cheaper and cheaper till someone buy.

I'm just wondering if that's the same with property? Seriously looking to participate in property auction already.


Showtime747
post Jan 27 2014, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 26 2014, 11:29 PM)
For business loan, a friend of mine was allowed to service interest only as his loan amount was too big and his business failed. Is there a similar one for property loan ?
*
In Australia there is "interest only" property loan. If crash happens in malaysia, that is another way BNM and banks can take to make NPL looks better
KChan
post Jan 27 2014, 12:03 AM

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Even in UK they do the same as well.
KChan
post Jan 27 2014, 12:19 AM

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By the way, BNM will be having it's Monetary Policy Meeting on 29 January 2014. So let's see at 6pm if there is any news regarding the OPR changes.
brother love
post Jan 27 2014, 12:50 AM

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Do no be so naive tat we cannot end up like the us sub prime crisis...some banks use > 70dsr to grant approval, now imagine young flipper easily got loan approved and relaxs, no need pay anyting as dibs, but upon completion, he bought a 1000+ unit condo project, competing wit others for rent and sell....surely he cant hold the property for long as he has little left for petrol, etc after paying the monthly mortgage installment....And if he invested in an overpriced project. ( some bought more than one unit), than gone la...imagine paying Rm630k for a studio somwehere in Ampang, and upon completion MV Rm700k, even he he sell, kena 30% RPGT, agent fees, legal fees etc, to make few thousnad from Rm630k poperty and holding all the risk during construction...no komen...( if he managed to find a big waterfish to buy his studio unit)...and he is lucky becoz he bought at " soft launch", the develoepr raised the price to Rm 900k in a few months time...All these r real life scenarios, for those experienced posters, u should know where and wat im talking about..Imagine paying Rm900k to find out MV Rm 700k upon completion...tats how overpriced some new launches r today...yet mostly young inexperienced people keep buying without doing any analysis...
peterhealth
post Jan 27 2014, 01:45 AM

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Just read this:

http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20140123-G...property-bubble

Anyone knows where is this 2 unfinished located in KL town centre?

Anyway, I wanted to vote "Bubble yet to burst, but it will be within 2-3 years time"
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 01:49 AM

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U guys really really dont have any idea what really happened in the subprime crisis. In america subprime crisis was a situation where somebody who is bankrupt can get a loan buying a bungalow, get it? Is that happening in malaysia? No! Enuff said.
HuiChyr
post Jan 27 2014, 02:45 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 01:49 AM)
U guys really really dont have any idea what really happened in the subprime crisis. In america subprime crisis was a situation where somebody who is bankrupt can get a loan buying a bungalow, get it? Is that happening in malaysia? No! Enuff said.
*
No ... that's not what subprime means.
SUBPRIME in USA are category of ppl NOT qualified to get house loans. Not just bankrupt. It's bcoz banks in USA got a plan to reduce their risk from subprime borrowers with MBS (mortgage backed securities). They sell this MBS to other investors hence "transferring" the risk. With MBS, they also "average" out the risk bcoz it's a mixed of subprime and prime borrowers.

So in Msia ... are there ppl NOT qualified to get loans, getting loans. YES. They are consider SUBPRIME.
Ppl who uses REFINANCING to buy another property with 10% downpayment. They refinance one property to buy 2 properties. And then they flip these property to make a huge profit margin. The process repeats until they are holding more and more properties. This is ONLY good when the market is in BULL mode.

Some even quit their day job doing this, living on rents. So their credit worthiness is compromised when they quit their jobs. Basically putting ALL in one basket .... Property basket. They also moved themselves frm PRIME to SUBPRIME category. The Msian banks may be prudent in their loans approval but borrowers were not. They think good times will keep rolling and property prices NEVER drop.... whistling.gif


value_investor
post Jan 27 2014, 04:31 AM

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If you read Economics Nobel Price winner Robert J. Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance, you will notice that Malaysia Real Estate Bubble has entered 'negative sentiment' phase since 2013, and will enter 'negative feedback loop' phase soon, then burst! The entire post-bubble dynamics might take few years to play themselves out.

This guy has successfully predicted 2000 US stock market crash, and 2008 US housing market crash with quite good accuracy!

This post has been edited by value_investor: Jan 27 2014, 04:32 AM
kidmad
post Jan 27 2014, 07:40 AM

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i have been waiting for quite sometime for things to happen.. but still it's business as usual... when the burst going to be?

to be really honest i don't think anything terrible will happen in 2014. this year most likely would be a major slowdown in the market.. next year would be the deciding factor year on where property market is heading to...
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 07:52 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 02:45 AM)
No ... that's not what subprime means.
SUBPRIME in USA are category of ppl NOT qualified to get house loans. Not just bankrupt. It's bcoz banks in USA got a plan to reduce their risk from subprime borrowers with MBS (mortgage backed securities). They sell this MBS to other investors hence "transferring" the risk. With MBS, they also "average" out the risk bcoz it's a mixed of subprime and prime borrowers.

So in Msia ... are there ppl NOT qualified to get loans, getting loans. YES. They are consider SUBPRIME.
Ppl who uses  REFINANCING to buy another property with 10% downpayment. They refinance one property to buy 2 properties. And then they flip these property to make a huge profit margin. The process repeats until they are holding more and more properties. This is ONLY good when the market is in BULL mode.

Some even quit their day job doing this, living on rents. So their credit worthiness is compromised when they quit their jobs. Basically putting ALL in one basket .... Property basket. They also moved themselves frm PRIME to SUBPRIME category. The Msian banks may be prudent in their loans approval but borrowers were not. They think good times will keep rolling and property prices NEVER drop....  whistling.gif
*
Dont act clever la, i am just giving that as one example of an EXTREME situation. I work in a bank, no banks in malaysia will give bankrupt people loan. Understand? Banks in US were not properly regulated, now they learned their lesson.

This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM
sampool
post Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jan 27 2014, 08:40 AM)
i have been waiting for quite sometime for things to happen.. but still it's business as usual... when the burst going to be?

to be really honest i don't think anything terrible will happen in 2014. this year most likely would be a major slowdown in the market.. next year would be the deciding factor year on where property market is heading to...
*
ya lo.. many ppl said property will crash in 2013 kau kau.. but it is up 5-10% again... paper gain only la hmm.gif

2014.... juz focus on stock market movement n prop interest... if something big changes, then prop market will be impact. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 27 2014, 07:54 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 02:45 AM)
No ... that's not what subprime means.
SUBPRIME in USA are category of ppl NOT qualified to get house loans. Not just bankrupt. It's bcoz banks in USA got a plan to reduce their risk from subprime borrowers with MBS (mortgage backed securities). They sell this MBS to other investors hence "transferring" the risk. With MBS, they also "average" out the risk bcoz it's a mixed of subprime and prime borrowers.

So in Msia ... are there ppl NOT qualified to get loans, getting loans. YES. They are consider SUBPRIME.
Ppl who uses  REFINANCING to buy another property with 10% downpayment. They refinance one property to buy 2 properties. And then they flip these property to make a huge profit margin. The process repeats until they are holding more and more properties. This is ONLY good when the market is in BULL mode.

Some even quit their day job doing this, living on rents. So their credit worthiness is compromised when they quit their jobs. Basically putting ALL in one basket .... Property basket. They also moved themselves frm PRIME to SUBPRIME category. The Msian banks may be prudent in their loans approval but borrowers were not. They think good times will keep rolling and property prices NEVER drop....  whistling.gif
*
I hv a 70% loan with a bank, my property has gone up 67% now, I try to refinance my property with new valuation but it was rejected, bank says my income cannot support a higher loan. I try 2 banks
It is not easy to refinance as claimed by you
My LTV stands at 43% now

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 27 2014, 07:56 AM
kidmad
post Jan 27 2014, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM)
ya lo.. many ppl said property will crash in 2013 kau kau.. but it is up 5-10% again... paper gain only la  hmm.gif

2014.... juz focus on stock market movement n prop interest... if something big changes, then prop market will be impact.  biggrin.gif
*
stock market? i don't even dare to touch. hahahha.
sampool
post Jan 27 2014, 07:57 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 08:53 AM)
I hv a 70% loan with a bank, my property has gone up 67% now, I try to refinance my property with new valuation but it was rejected, bank says my income cannot support a higher loan. I try 2 banks
It is not easy to refinance as claimed by you
*
it is logic bank do that... because U JUZ UNABLE TO SERVICE THE LOAN.. THAT'S ALL. This happen to anyone too!!! except u can prove to them u got other income lo..
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 27 2014, 07:57 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM)
ya lo.. many ppl said property will crash in 2013 kau kau.. but it is up 5-10% again... paper gain only la  hmm.gif

2014.... juz focus on stock market movement n prop interest... if something big changes, then prop market will be impact.  biggrin.gif
*
Sampool tk, where is yr buddy? Gold TK?

sampool
post Jan 27 2014, 07:57 AM

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QUOTE(manapergi @ Jan 27 2014, 08:56 AM)
if property market is to crash, share market comes 1st
oh wai  wink.gif
*
YES. but it must crash to 1500 point only consider is crash hmm.gif

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 27 2014, 08:01 AM
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 07:58 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM)
I hv a 70% loan with a bank, my property has gone up 67% now, I try to refinance my property with new valuation but it was rejected, bank says my income cannot support a higher loan. I try 2 banks
It is not easy to refinance as claimed by you
My LTV stands at 43% now
*
Correct and if u are bankrupt u will never get a loan. This people in the forum really dont know what really happened in the US of this subprime crisis. Talk talk talk only. That is just the first phase, havent talk about the toxic derivatives yet.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 08:04 AM

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QUOTE(manapergi @ Jan 27 2014, 07:56 AM)
if property market is to crash, share market comes 1st
oh wai  wink.gif
*
Not necessary true. In the subprime crisis in the US, properties were hit first. Then the deivatives that has the mortgages as the underlying, then when all the financial institutions that hold these derivatives realized that they are holding worthless assets they tried to sell them off but cant. Hit their books and then total financial meltdown in the US.
Showtime747
post Jan 27 2014, 08:22 AM

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Is it that difficult to google "Subprime mortgage crisis" ?

QUOTE
The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was a set of events and conditions that led to a financial crisis and subsequent recession that began in 2008. It was characterized by a rise in subprime mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, and the resulting decline of securities backed by said mortgages. These mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO) initially offered attractive rates of return due to the higher interest rates on the mortgages; however, the lower credit quality ultimately caused massive defaults.[1] While elements of the crisis first became more visible during 2007, several major financial institutions collapsed in September 2008, with significant disruption in the flow of credit to businesses and consumers and the onset of a severe global recession.


How to define subprime in USA ?

QUOTE
In finance, subprime lending (also referred to as near-prime, non-prime, and second-chance lending) means making loans to people who may have difficulty maintaining the repayment schedule, sometimes reflecting setbacks such as unemployment, divorce, medical emergencies, etc.[1] Historically, subprime borrowers were defined as having a FICO scores below 640, although "this has varied over time and circumstances."


FICO score

QUOTE
The FICO score is the best-known and most widely used credit score model in the United States. It was first introduced in 1989 by FICO, then called Fair, Isaac, and Company. The FICO model is used by credit reporting bureaus such as Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion to produce a FICO score. Because a consumer's credit report may contain different information at each of the bureaus, FICO scores can vary depending on which bureau provides the score.

Makeup of the FICO score
The approximate makeup of the FICO score used by US lenders

Credit scores are designed to measure the risk of default by taking into account various factors in a person's financial history. Although the exact formulas for calculating credit scores are secret, FICO has disclosed the following components:[3][4]

35%: Payment history—Late payments on bills, such as a mortgage, credit card or automobile loan, will cause a FICO score to drop.[5] Bills paid on time will improve a FICO score.[6]

30%: Credit utilization—The ratio of current revolving debt (such as credit card balances) to the total available revolving credit or credit limit. FICO scores can be improved by paying off debt and lowering the credit utilization ratio.[7] Alternatively, applications for and receiving the credit limit increase will also drive down the utilization ratio. Alternatively, opening new lines of credit will have the same effect (keep in mind the "Average age of tradelines" and "Hard inquiries" matrices on the last possibility). The closing of existing revolving accounts will typically adversely affect this ratio and therefore have a negative impact on a FICO score.

15%: Length of credit history—As a credit history ages it can have a positive impact on its FICO score.[8]

10%: Types of credit used (installment, revolving, consumer finance, mortgage)—Consumers can benefit by having a history of managing different types of credit.[9]

10%: Recent searches for credit—hard credit inquiries, which occur when consumers apply for a credit card or loan (revolving or otherwise), can hurt scores, especially if done in great numbers; often three to five points per inquiry. Individuals "rate shopping" for a mortgage or auto loan over a short period (a fortnight or 45 days, depending on whether old FICO or FICO 08 are used) will likely not experience a large decrease in their scores as a result of these types of inquiries, as automated computer algorithms attempt to detect when a consumer is rate shopping (and not attempting to receive many new lines of credit), and roll all of the hard inquiries into one; this can often take several months, and isn't always effective, although a consumer who believes he or she has received many hard inquiries on their report while searching for one loan (where the automated system has failed to detect it as such) can dispute these with the credit bureau in question.[10] While all credit inquiries are recorded and displayed on personal credit reports for two years (their effect decreases at the six-month and one-year mark; they have no real effect after the first year), credit inquiries that were made by the consumer (such as pulling a credit report for personal use), by an employer (for employee verification) or by companies initiating pre-screened offers of credit or insurance do not have any impact on a credit score: these are called "soft inquiries" or "soft pulls", and do not appear on a credit report used by lenders, only on personal reports.



BNM strict rulings and CCRIS checks essentially is the malaysia version of FICO. I suspect the current stringent of credit granting has cause the score to move to the 90s.
1. Payment history - those "0s" in CCRIS report
2. Credit utilisation - have you repaid down the outstanding loans. How many years to go
3. Length of credit history - to determine whether you are good paymaster
4. Types of credit used - list down the CC, car loan, personal loan, property loan
5. Recent searches for credit - all your existing application (not yet approved) are reflected in CCRIS

On top of that, BNM also has LTV 90%/70%, net income ruling, top up loan limited to 10 years, personal loan limited to 10 years etc

You guys judge for yourself if there is any resemblance of malaysian property loan to US subprime mortgage


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