Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed
3 Pages  1 2 3 >Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

views
     
sampool
post Jan 20 2014, 11:31 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Jan 20 2014, 11:18 AM)
HK property tycoon with 50 years property experience said kl property price tooo low untill no logic.... he said invest KL only... and don't invest johor iskandar...
*
i think because he forget our salary n standard living are few times below hk
sampool
post Jan 22 2014, 09:29 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 22 2014, 10:43 AM)
Haizzzz, kl center property too expensive can not buy, collect rental oso die. Outskirt landed property, can not buy oso, too far away, traffic jam, collect rental oso die.

like that no need to buy house oredy lor. Forever rent house Lar
Want cheaper one
Want fresh one
Want big one
Somemore must  guarantee can produce baby one

Walau, mana cari? cry.gif  cry.gif  cry.gif
*
this is the beauty of investment in prop... where there are risks, there are opportunities!!!!!
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 04:06 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(manapergi @ Jan 26 2014, 05:02 PM)
Your guessing is totally wrong. Hong leong bank own the building in HQ jln perak, ex eon hq at jln raja laut, pjcity at federal highway, and the upcoming damansara city near damansara height.

It is not that bank don't want buy shoplot for branches but owner won't sell for matured area.

A lot of outsider like you simply assume without the insight and that's why you are forever poorfag.
*
yes.. i agreed.. once the owner know bank wan to buy the shop/property from them.. the asking price will be as high as sky... bank also investor, they won't buy any above their evaluation price.

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 26 2014, 04:06 PM
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 04:20 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(manapergi @ Jan 26 2014, 05:15 PM)
So free to write TLDR

8k in common for those 30yo

even 20+ yo combined income already 10k above
*
good to hear that.. high income nation liao... rclxms.gif
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 04:44 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 26 2014, 05:41 PM)
Bro, first I must say that like you, I expect the property price to come down starting 2014. At the very least, property price should stay stagnant. It wouldn't increase like in the past few years

And from your replies, I notice that you have dead set your sight to see a Property Armageddon. As such, whatever you think, your lines of thought are set to justify a popping property bubble. Whatever you see, there is a link to property bubble. Your ends is now justifying your means

While I wanted to see property prices to go down by 30%-50% (so that I can pick up dead chicken), I must be realistic at the same time. Malaysian property loan is nowhere similar to USA sub-prime loans. If ever there is a property bubble bursting, it would not be caused by something similar to sub-prime. Instead, it could be due to other factors such as economic crisis which leads to high employment rate, or some other causes.

Let's be realistic. Until today, there is still no signs of an all out property bubble burst, which honestly I am somewhat disappointed. We could be witnessing a soft landing instead
*
we hv huge mid class support the rental... how to drop. hmm.gif
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 05:49 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 06:41 PM)
Unlike stock and commodities, property is illiquid and foreclosures take time, price won't crash but take years to bottom.

It take a number of events leading to any crisis, seeds are planted and waiting for the perfect storm. Unless the property market defy conventional economic theory, property crisis is inevitable.
*
actually property crisis happen before la.. it is not new to us... between 1997 to 2003 is the crisis what ever new launch price will down 10-15% after completed and hand over the key to owner, 2004 start to pick up only... but that time increase 2-3% per annum.

so, if u think prop to down 10-15% is normal... but bankrupt is minority for the NEW flipper or owner.

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 26 2014, 05:53 PM
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 05:56 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 26 2014, 06:53 PM)
10-15% is not a "crisis". I want 30-50%  drool.gif
*
haha.. u better monitor ioi property share (it is my bench mark)... if it down 50% from now.. then there is hope... if not dun think about it.... 15% is max already in history in general.
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 05:59 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 06:56 PM)
Wow really? Can you PM me which company you are working? I know a lot of people in the mid twenties and a degree holder looking for jobs paying atleast above 5k. I shall refer them to your company.
What's the definition of middle class? And what is the income level? Assuming middle class is define from 5000-7000/month, would they rent a 750,000 property at RM 3500? The 3500 is the mortgage repayment just for the 90% loan + maintenance. And that price is probably bare unfurnished unit. If furnish then shall be slightly higher at RM 4000? That's more than half of the gross salary goes toward rental?
Yes a lot of things in BAFIA is illegal. For example it's illegal to for bankers to take our details and sell to property agent, but this goes on so rampantly. The chances for them to be caught is very slim, as there is no mechanism to check and penalise. How many person ever being charge in Court for BAFIA anyway?

All sales person just want to close sales as in Malaysian style. Apa pun boleh. Asalkan got big big commission. And for the bank, they know this is happening and just closing one eye for the sake of profit. I even heard of an insider story that certain banks personnel cheat customer money. But in the end there is no case. As the bank resolve it internally and just ask that particular staff to leave. You think any bank will admit they are part of the fraud and tarnished their own reputation unless of course its a very very large figure transaction?

P/S. I knew a few bankers around.
*
mid class mean ppl no $$ for down payment (like u said it could be $100k)... but they got $$ for monthly instalment/rental hmm.gif
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 06:09 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 26 2014, 07:06 PM)
How could that be ? Isn't property is guaranteed crisis resistant investment ? ..lol

Just those who earlier said oil price would only go up as oil is depleting resources & all the oil production country cannot produce enough oil to meet the demand & expect oil price to exceed USD 200 by 2009 ? What happened in 2008 ? oil price tumbled till today oil price had never regained peak of USD 148 in 2008, so what the explanation ??

Just a few years back everyone is talking how safe is Gold investment,  Gold is the best investment & hedge against inflation,  so much so that people e saying the world should use gold as currency against ever depreciate USD,  so now what happened ? Gold price tumbler no one taking about keeping gold rather than cash.

I bet U when u look back in next few years when over supplied properties price tumbled, then these people u see today talking about property price would never fall, will keep quiet just like those Oil & Gold speculators. ..lol
*
the majority (especially the big player) wanted oil and gold to drop.. then it will drop....

ask urself is now majority (sp, ms, ioi, uem, me, flipper, owner, etc) want property to go down or not ????
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 06:30 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 07:26 PM)
Alright, if double then sure can. Then the questions is, if double income, they could definitely buy a house instead of renting right? And since they can afford to buy for own stay and perhaps have also bought it already. Then who is gonna rent the rest of it from the market?
*
again in kangkung age, there still need time to accumulate for down payment.... n many misc charges...
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 06:37 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 26 2014, 07:31 PM)
So u mean Shell, Petronas, Exxon, Total want oil price to fall ? or UAE, Saudi Arabia want oil price to fall ? or was it Malaysia government who highly depends on oil income want oil price to fall ?

Maybe CMMC Goldmine or Peninsular Gold in Raub want Gold price to fall ? so that they can earn less ? or those who invest life time saving into Gold r very happy to see the money tumbling.

Flipper r actually just a bunch of kucirap insignificant to determine the property price, it 8s the buyer demand, looking at current over supplied properties, price fall in not an option anymore is a definiteness, just that Lowyat forum flipper/owner/real estate agent wanna live in Fantasy Island & shouting "The Plane The Plane" every time they see a new project launching. .lol
*
gold n oil have global player... they not need to answer to their investors... global issue.. then close shop.

but, those local prop players need to answer to their local investors... biggrin.gif



This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 26 2014, 06:50 PM
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 08:17 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 26 2014, 09:00 PM)
Yeah, rental rates never really goes up but prices of property goes all the way up. I foresee that many people will not buy property in the future and just go on renting. Why buy and pay instalment at RM 2500 for the mortgage. If for me, I would rather rent at 1500-1800. Let the owner worry about the instalment and maintenance and miscellaneous. If owner wanna increase rental, cabut to another cheaper rental location. Living nomad live. Atleast can stay in many new house and make the house dirty and move to new place again.

I definitely know some people is doing that already. LOL
*
but when u retire times... u hv property and no property is matter u (retirement!!!)

there is no free lunch.. house owner not stupid anyway!!!

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 26 2014, 08:22 PM
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 11:19 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(500Kmission @ Jan 26 2014, 11:39 PM)
I am kind of want to do that after selling my properties.
*
in fact the owner also not really want the tenant to stay forever in the same house.. as the owner can raise the rental up to market value to new tenant more easily then to increase the rental for the current tenant.

again every cent is count.. no free lunch actually..
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 11:32 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 27 2014, 12:29 AM)
For business loan, a friend of mine was allowed to service interest only as his loan amount was too big and his business failed. Is there a similar one for property loan ?
*
i dun think so.. bank will lelong the house quickly.. but for businesses, bank cannot lelong the business ma, who want the losing business then.
sampool
post Jan 26 2014, 11:58 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 27 2014, 12:47 AM)
Yup its about 1.15 to 1.2% from the parameters. Even if the bank allows servicing of just interest alone of additional of 769.33 p/m. That's a whopping 32% increase of instalment with just about 1% changes in BLR rates.

If I'm the bank, I would definitely allow that. Just pay me interest every month at 3166.67. And he/she still owe me 500k without any reduction. If can't pay, I foreclose the property and he/she still owe me that full sum minus what I sell the property and other miscellaneous charges. Win-Win to the bank only lar.

Sounds very like loan shark already. Every month service interest only without reducing balance. That's is even more expensive than renting I think.  cry.gif
*
that is why.. property is big investment... not like buying kangkung in pasar lo... many ppl think think and end up still renting the house.... hmm.gif
sampool
post Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jan 27 2014, 08:40 AM)
i have been waiting for quite sometime for things to happen.. but still it's business as usual... when the burst going to be?

to be really honest i don't think anything terrible will happen in 2014. this year most likely would be a major slowdown in the market.. next year would be the deciding factor year on where property market is heading to...
*
ya lo.. many ppl said property will crash in 2013 kau kau.. but it is up 5-10% again... paper gain only la hmm.gif

2014.... juz focus on stock market movement n prop interest... if something big changes, then prop market will be impact. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 27 2014, 07:54 AM
sampool
post Jan 27 2014, 07:57 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 27 2014, 08:53 AM)
I hv a 70% loan with a bank, my property has gone up 67% now, I try to refinance my property with new valuation but it was rejected, bank says my income cannot support a higher loan. I try 2 banks
It is not easy to refinance as claimed by you
*
it is logic bank do that... because U JUZ UNABLE TO SERVICE THE LOAN.. THAT'S ALL. This happen to anyone too!!! except u can prove to them u got other income lo..
sampool
post Jan 27 2014, 07:57 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(manapergi @ Jan 27 2014, 08:56 AM)
if property market is to crash, share market comes 1st
oh wai  wink.gif
*
YES. but it must crash to 1500 point only consider is crash hmm.gif

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 27 2014, 08:01 AM
sampool
post Jan 28 2014, 11:29 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 29 2014, 12:14 AM)
Everyone has their own strategy and risk profile and risk appetite. Therefore, I only generalise on the majority based on the EPF report and statistics.

5.3 million active contributors with salary below 5000 to benefits 1% increment for employer portion

Based on the same year 2011 report there is about 6.2 million active EPF contributors

Although based on old report for 2011 which I can only find online right now, there is 6,262,832 active EPF contributor. Based on the news report that there is 5.3 million contributor which will benefits 1% EPF increase in contribution by employer for 5000 and below salary. Therefore I conclude that there is only:-

(6,262,832 - 5,300,000) / 6,262,832 * 100 = 15.37% who is making above 5000 per month

Generally assume that there is increment and adjustment within the last 2 years and therefore there is 20% of active contributor to EPF which is making 5000 and above per month. So based on this figure alone, the affordability for property beyond 500-600k is only within the reach of 20% of salary earner.

I do not have the statistic on how many self-employed, business man and so on. Even there is lets say the figure is 10%. (This part is purely speculation by me)

So in the end, based on that statistic, I truly felt that that property (residential) has now gone beyond the threshold of general public. I also felt that the upside to the trend is limited right now based what I mentioned above.

I have yet to mentioned that those who is rich, super rich or mega rich which usually form 5% of the top tier of the population which has tons of money to buy cash for any luxury property and any property they want which I felt (personal opinion) that they won't even bother with property that we are looking at.

Also there is a lot other factors like external economy, currency performance, FDI, inflation and so on.

Although what I said sounds negative to general UUU investor, but please do acknowledge that this is some facts that we shall look at as well. I will not say there is overall bubble in property investment, there is some indicators that the uptrend might not last long enough especially for those who enter into the market within the last 2 years.

This is based on my own analysis. I welcome feedback by anyone on this as I want to get some insights on what is the factor which they think otherwise
*
i think u cannot compare like that... some epf contributors although below 5000, but they may bought prop 10 years ago and some got part time business but never declare.... some parent bought prop for them... some combine name to buy... too many scenario.

anyway, now is the rental play times... especially expat not easy to buy 1 million prop now. so dun expect the rental will remind unchange... if rental up, prop price will definitely up too.

prop investor need to scarify their time and money, so they should get pay for every prop they invest... if not now should be future as long as holding power is there. hmm.gif

This post has been edited by sampool: Jan 28 2014, 11:33 PM
sampool
post Jan 30 2014, 09:25 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,294 posts

Joined: Mar 2009
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 29 2014, 08:48 PM)
Oh yeah just to add, bubble? What bubble when you can buy a house for 110k in sungai petani. Ok i am not sure if is landed house or apartment. I should hav ask my friend that.
*
maybe ur frenz one is kampung house la..

3 yrs ago i hear one uncle said he regret to sell his shop in perak... he bought 200k and sell at 250k... after 5 years jump to about 700k.

3 Pages  1 2 3 >Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0497sec    0.36    8 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 14th December 2025 - 06:43 PM