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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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value_investor
post Jan 16 2014, 06:44 PM

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I tell you the truth, when real estate crashes 90% of you will not have the balls to buy. When bubbles burst it usually comes hand in hand with, stock market crash, currency crash, job market crash, high interest rate, etc.

The good news is I'm in the 10%, which means the rich will always get richer!

This post has been edited by value_investor: Jan 16 2014, 06:49 PM
value_investor
post Jan 19 2014, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 19 2014, 12:32 PM)
well, the interpretation can be...

"in lyn, a random poll suggested that 62% are still invested and do not think prop prices will fall or prop market will slow down." tongue.gif
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The more ppl vote no bubble, the closer we are to a bubble burst. This is standard bell curve trend, which means we have reach the peak of the curve. What follows only down, since most ppl already invested no more buyers out there!
value_investor
post Jan 27 2014, 04:31 AM

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If you read Economics Nobel Price winner Robert J. Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance, you will notice that Malaysia Real Estate Bubble has entered 'negative sentiment' phase since 2013, and will enter 'negative feedback loop' phase soon, then burst! The entire post-bubble dynamics might take few years to play themselves out.

This guy has successfully predicted 2000 US stock market crash, and 2008 US housing market crash with quite good accuracy!

This post has been edited by value_investor: Jan 27 2014, 04:32 AM
value_investor
post Jan 28 2014, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 28 2014, 02:44 PM)
Yes I am ....
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I'm one of the type of investors you described. I have cashed out of property already. Most of my millions are in better income producing assets now. These people who says "property always goes up" are typical middle class who will never be rich becoz they possess low financial intelligence. They will forever be slave to money rather than master of it!
value_investor
post Jan 28 2014, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(lilzany @ Jan 28 2014, 09:15 PM)
so pray tell what type of assets are you having now...  hmm.gif
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Go look around what is the lowest now is probably what I'm holding now. The intelligent investor know to buy low and sell high.

Those who believe property never drops below launch price are fools. I bought so many properties in 2006 below the owners' original prices from developer from 1997!



value_investor
post Jan 28 2014, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 28 2014, 09:56 PM)
Go look around what is the lowest now is probably what I'm holding now. The intelligent investor know to buy low and sell high.

Those who believe property never drops below launch price are fools. I bought so many properties in 2006 below the owners' original prices from developer from 1997!
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Not only below. They were 30% below. That's 10 years after initial launch!
value_investor
post Jan 28 2014, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 10:38 PM)
U bought 30% below launch price in 2006 after 10 yr launched(1997)
Have u make money from tis property?. If yes, maybe u should say thank q to them instead of fool.
If not becoz of them. How can u make money, right?
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Yes, should thank the fools. But they are still fools sorry to say, it is capitalism! They are not Rawang, many in Penang, especially those projects by Goh Chun Lai!


value_investor
post Jan 28 2014, 10:56 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 28 2014, 10:51 PM)
Yes, should thank the fools. But they are still fools sorry to say, it is capitalism! They are not Rawang, many in Penang, especially those projects by Goh Chun Lai!
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But the fools also should thank me, because after i sold to them the prices still increasing up to now! Maybe the fools can find greater fools!

This post has been edited by value_investor: Jan 28 2014, 10:58 PM
value_investor
post Jan 29 2014, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 29 2014, 06:48 PM)
No increase in interest rate. My cash n fd continue to loose more to inflation n exchange rate.....want to convert it to equities or property people say high risk. Got fxxked standing straight.
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There is another class of assets you can invest and gain better return than real estate and yet potential for leveraged capital gains! Fixed deposits are for retires, while properties are for fools now!

This post has been edited by value_investor: Jan 29 2014, 07:20 PM
value_investor
post Jan 29 2014, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 29 2014, 07:27 PM)
biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif  30% of top richest in china are fools now.
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China different bro! Due to regulations many hold RE!
value_investor
post Feb 3 2014, 01:35 AM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 2 2014, 03:24 PM)
the further ringgit depreciate, the higher property price will go...property is the best hedge against inflation
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Oh yeah? Then how come during 1998 when RM hit 4.00 against USD and property prices crashed?
value_investor
post Feb 3 2014, 01:53 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 01:40 AM)
No crash laa. Those lelong house are because of bankrupt businessmen during 1998. A few happened in my area. People who went all in into stocks but then KLCI dropped from 1000++ to 200++!!. But my house still intact and i dont think it dropped.
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I bought so many properties at prices cheaper than original developer prices, how come no crash you say? Maybe you are still sucking your mama breasts then?

Indeed how properties behave now reminds me of how stocks behaved in 1997!

This post has been edited by value_investor: Feb 3 2014, 01:55 AM
value_investor
post Feb 3 2014, 09:21 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 3 2014, 07:04 PM)
If rent is enough to cover loan repayment,  most if not all tenants would have bought.

Many inexperienced landlord tend to neglect agent fee, idle time, repair cost, etc.
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Not to mention tax, assessment, and maintenance. I think net yield is only 3% for LRT apartments, non-LRT can even go 2% net yield. Do you think RE can sustain at such yields?


value_investor
post Feb 3 2014, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 09:50 PM)
Of course i am using 400k as the value of the property instead of 600k. I mean make sure that the rental covers ur installment. So if 600k u should maybe rent at 2.7k and get a yield of 4.5%
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It may not be so bad for you since you bought at RM400k, but those who buy now at RM600k will be having negative cash flow. As financials 101 teaches: leverage + negative cash flow = disaster!


value_investor
post Feb 3 2014, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 3 2014, 10:50 PM)
i have to agree with you on your point with regards to 3% yield + capital appreciation...

to me...if i can get 3% yield and then on top of that capital appreciation...it is definitely way better than FD already... smile.gif

so at minimum, if i can get a 3% yield for a property...that is good enough....at minimum...
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Capital appreciation will correctly adjust to yield eventually. A 3% yield property leaves no room for capital appreciation! Find those in 5% to 6%

This post has been edited by value_investor: Feb 3 2014, 10:58 PM
value_investor
post Feb 4 2014, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(Salvador_Dali @ Feb 4 2014, 02:08 AM)
Nothing goes up forever, nothing goes down forever.
Remember how one barrel of oil cost USD140? now it is USD80.
Remember Gold? Peaked at USD2000, now USD 1250/oz.

There will come a time when property price crash,
the most important question is, can the person continue to service the loan in a crash. if he or she can, then it is irrelevant if it crashes.
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It is common banks asking to topup loan when property prices crashes, so it is double whammy!
value_investor
post Feb 4 2014, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Feb 4 2014, 09:23 AM)
gd opportunity come and go vely fast 1. Monitor closely. No need to pick date like getting marriage 1.
if wait for lelong hor.. need to plan 12-18 mths after clear sign of econo crisis heppened... most peoples are at deny stage and can hold for at least 6 mths, and banks need to take few mths to process and get court order bla bla ..... it may take longer time if too many cases as same banks may decide to "sell" their default outstanding to 3rd parties, smthing like Danaxxxxx during 1997 crisis.
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Agree on this ... property prices slump for the next 5 years after 1997 crisis indeed!

This post has been edited by value_investor: Feb 4 2014, 09:57 AM
value_investor
post Feb 4 2014, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(blowwater101 @ Feb 4 2014, 04:24 PM)
Hi Bro, when we borrow loan from bank, is the property shows under bank's tangible asset in balance sheet ?

i thought it should be under loan receivables? ...so there is no overvalue or under value issue...as long as client is continue serving their loan, good track record, then it is not a doubful account ....

my knowledge is limited. thanks for enlighten me...
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All loans are under bank assets. Read your agreement that bank can ask you to topup when values goes underwater.
value_investor
post Feb 4 2014, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Feb 4 2014, 05:30 PM)
Underwater property is not new phenomena, it happened before in HK properties severely back in 1997, and just years ago in US property.

Bank generally do not want to foreclose the "underwater" property.
As long as borrower service the loan, they are happy to status qou generally.

As in an "underwater" property, borrowers can be best to walk away the property, the let banks foreclose it.

Eg. A property previously 800k, with monthly loan 4K,
Now the property only worth 500k, which now 3k (just simply a number)

If the borrower willing to service the loan at 4K consistently, banks are happy to see it instead try to tell the client to top up the collateral margin which might lead to foreclosure, whereby bank only can recover 500K instead of 800K loan amount. A 300K NPL potential incurred, which in massive scale (as banks could have ten or hundred thousand of similar borrower) which could bring down a bank as well.
But if the borrowers still paying 4k every month, NPL won't incur in the bank book.

In this kind of situation. borrower can choose to walk away the property, and save 1K every month which technically is "burned" away in an "underwater property,  the borrower is paying at the valuation of 800k.
Or in other word, the borrowers are paying 800k that only worth 500k currently.

There is reason why bank reluctantly to give full valuation on properties in recent years, as it gives margin of safety for the collateral issue for the bank besides the valuation issue.
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The difference between USA and malaysia is in the states once foreclose the debtor don't have to pay the underwater loss, they can walk away without further liabilities. In malaysia, debtor have to settle the difference after foreclose, otherwise the bank will sue for bankruptcy!
value_investor
post Feb 4 2014, 09:15 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Feb 4 2014, 07:35 PM)
If u r so good.

why cant u point out margin call is not accounting rules?

why u asked question with accounts clerk knowledge? ...

oh your name is blowwater. No wonder! tongue.gif:p:p  smile.gif smile.gifsmile.gif
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Your Mark-To-Marketing accounting is the key here. People are concerned whether property value drop affects bank asset value. You have correctly answered them that it does affect, and can therefore trigger margin call as well.

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