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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 14 2014, 06:18 PM

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Main culprit - Banks
Hand in hand work closely with developers to goreng the market.

SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 15 2014, 01:42 AM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jan 14 2014, 11:52 PM)
Any comment?
"BBB" FOR RM2,100 PSF

::: Dorsett Residences Bukit Bintang by Far East Consortium of Hong Kong has a pretty good take up rate before obtaining AP. As many international buyers as Malaysian buyers. All you see, all you get - as shown in a luxuriously fully- furnished, fully-decorated showflat. Marble. Bosch and Gaggenau appliances provided. Close to Jalan Bukit Bintang. For walk-in customers, not many units left as of 13/1/2014.
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Nett around 1800/sf, doable I guess
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 17 2014, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 17 2014, 12:52 PM)
Dev job is to rollover the cash flow for new launches. In biz, they can just sit on tat stock in hand.
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Obviously he dun understand how developers run their business

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 17 2014, 01:38 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 18 2014, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 18 2014, 07:17 AM)
Let's oso put tis pic here.  brows.gif

I know ppl who earn few k a mth but spending on branded stuffs like no tomolo. New watches new bags new shoes nice car modify car hair style etc etc.

Oso seen some vely down to earth mega rich guys wearing singlet hair cut at barber no watch but phone watch, ethg they use or hav is just above average but not branded chaser. However, they live in vely huge bungalow, hav Ferrari kept at home (ppl say u r not rich driving an expensive car but u r when u hav spare cash to just keep it in ur garage), chauffeured driven, props everywhere, etc etc.

Guess I mentioned b4 somewhere in the previous pinned thread tat the bro of my fren can't even remember where he bot. Once he asked his sister (oso his PA) to enquire for a land tat ended up sister told him tat he actually bot it yrs ago. Tis ppl r so rich tat they dun worry bout having expensive stuffs. However, his kids r driving cars tat under 100k. Tats the rule. He make sure his kids hav to work for it eventhou he is filthy rich. For sharing, he has more than 50 cars at home. Imagine how big is the house. And he is running a biz produce goods tat most ppl need.  sweat.gif  thumbup.gif  bruce.gif
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Quite true,
Indeed Western and Asian tycoon are different,
One pretends like a King, One pretends like a layman on the street.
One has many mistresses, one has many kids
One spend a lot for themselves (& mistresses), one spend a lot for their kids
One donates a lot, one donate peanuts
One show off with luxury cars or lifestyle, one keeps buying properties to show off, a symbolic of wealth

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 18 2014, 09:14 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 20 2014, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jan 20 2014, 02:38 PM)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/115179435202482/

BREAKING NEWS ::: Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin has resigned as President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of S P Setia Bhd today. Datuk Teow Leong Seng also resigned as chief financial officer (CFO), while Tan Sri Lee Lam Thye stepped down as non-independent & non-executive director of the company.

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Great man. Who will take over? I&P chief?
Top 10% best performance staff would probably follow him to EcoWorld
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 25 2014, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 25 2014, 01:56 PM)
I SAY.. IN PROPERTY TRANSACTION RATIO, SUBSALE TRANSACTION ALWAYS HIGHER THAN PRIMARY.. THIS YEAE WE MIGHT SEE THE RATIO ON SUBSALE TRANSACTION COULD FURTHER INCREASE.. DONT SKEW MY WORDS ..  READ MORE NEWS PAPER, STATISTICS AND UPDATE URSELF.
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He..he..
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 07:28 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 12:09 AM)
850k after 10 years... sure up lor.. u di pay 420k installment.. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k..

so 650k -420k-75k-25k -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. U STILL OWE THE BANK 30K.. Do you know ?  Flipping instantly.. those say long term investment is lying through their teeth..

lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
Means loan 650k -420k-75k-25k-200k= you earn 70k for 10 years.. means a year is 7k... per month is rm583 DSL per month rental.. hardly can get a room even flat sin KL..  u sure.. just to say up..

We have not factored legal fees.. stamp duties.. gosh.. maybe think .. subsales 750k DSL hoping for 200k.. srlling 10 years is sucide.. immediately sales upon VP can..

so those agent tell you sure untung.. let them hold.. 5 years above also die.. even home owners be prudent.. a DSL outskirt cannot reach 950k.. who wanna buy 10 year old prop.. haizz..
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Tis is true. Agree
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 07:35 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 26 2014, 12:32 AM)
yes, i said price guarantee UP, so it's definitely UP UP UP.
BUT, if the price UP not so much, after your calculation example, then it is not worth it, but the price is still UP ...

that is the main point i'm trying to drill in... i've seen example of property price drop after the 97 crisis but eventually it will be UP and more than the purchase price and it's uptrend if consider today's price...

come on...you have to agree with me on this, the price will definitely go up in the long run... 10 years time frame...
smile.gif
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Landed is very very safe.
For those highrise launched last year, I feel that certain project price are too aggressive, is it hard to say that price will be higher after 5/10 yrs. IMO rental market is so encouraging, largely due to oversupply
However if RM further depreciate significantly (which I am fully confident with), no way for property price to drop in long run.
My main purpose to buy property in MALAYSIA is to safeguard my buying power. Real estate is a good instrument to hedge RM depreciation

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 26 2014, 07:44 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 07:39 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 26 2014, 06:39 AM)
Boss think of the brighter side. Rental income is not mentioned in ur assumption le.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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I did factor in this aspect but to my surprise that some people dun agree it.
IMO, if buy for own stay, rental shd be calculated in also, it is part of the savings

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 26 2014, 07:39 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 07:59 AM)
Kangkong mentality mean for kangkong income and not geared for steak, shashimi income.
Due to inflation, absolute price is increased over the year. However, buying property incurs interest payment and should be included for valuation.
Unlike stock or commodity, property is illiquid. As foreclosures take 12 to 24 months, hence, please be patient and crunch time will come after vp of many dibs developments.
It is common for people to apply loan from a few banks simultaneously, after received offers from a few banks supposedly for one unit, as few banks check ccris again after loan approval, it is not unknown for flippers to accept all offer and bought multiple units. Further, many flippers paid deposit by cc installment i.e. zero cash investment. If this does not constitute sub-prime, what is?
Property market is not something new. Ever wonder why older people (e.g. gen x) and have more resources are not overwhelming in current property market frenzy?
Property in Malaysia is priced in RM, how to hedge against RM depreciation?  rclxub.gif
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Better study subprime deeply before comment
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jan 26 2014, 08:29 AM)
He doesn't factor in the current value and future value of money. In long term investment, one must factor in the time value of money (discounted cash flow method) to analyze investment as a dollar today is not the same value after 10 years. U need to discount back your loan amount after 10 years into today's value to analyze it.

Assuming the average mortgage loan interest is 5% pa for the next 10 years (Currently 4.2% with blr-2.4%), u r better off with the borrowing if the yearly inflation rate is > borrowing rate.

In the long term, those who keep FD in the bank will loose out for those who invest with better return.  We need to at least beat the inflation rate.
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+1
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 11:42 AM)
In these kind of climate/ sentimens( government measures) buying new prop launcheas runs the risk of holding for prop in vacant mode eithout rental for d next 5 years.. for subsales for own stay.. still can wait longer price sure up.. for invesment on flipp prop.. better check d locatiin and affordability... sin good developers also produce lapsap  project like iskandar.. all vacant klang valley got 2 megatownship.. look at their coming supplies
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After reading so many posts, I still dunno yr intention...
Are you planning to buy a property (now or future)
Are you going to buy more properties?
Hv you purchased property before?
Hv you actually met an agent before? If yes then how many?

If you plan to buy a property, I just have a feeling that, once the mkt crash 30%-40%, you dare not to buy

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 26 2014, 11:53 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 12:15 PM

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It is much easier to make a decision (to buy) during bullish mkt than mkt downturn

Recently met a banker purchaser looking for own stay (bout 40++), I show him -
1) Property A - 950K (launching price 2011), now 1.60 mil
Banker likes but says "Over inflated price, why shd I pay so much for the seller to earn, no rooms for appreciation"

2) Property B - 910K -1.15 m (launching price 2010), now 1.03 mil - 1.15 mil
Banker likes but says "why the price so slow, seems cannot appreciate one, why the owner want to sell this price??"
I answer "If you feel 1.03 mil is too low, I can always quote you 1.3 mil to make you feel better"

I ask why not buy fr developer, he says "I like finished product especially new VP house, can check the quality"

When one decides not to buy, he always has excuses, real case for sharing

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 26 2014, 01:26 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 04:23 PM

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Sometimes there are some "inexperience" property investors asking me to look for corner shop which rented to bank.
Investor : "I like corner shop, shop can rent to bank"
Me : "ya, good. Everyone also knows that"
Investor : "Find for me good corner which rented to bank"
Me : "wats yr target gross ROI"
Investor : "6%-8%"
Me : "Good, if I found one, probably I will be the purchaser"

A corner shoplot facing main road which rented to bank for 15K/mth wd probably asking for > 5.4 mil easily

Agent who advertises shoplot which achieves 8% return are 99% bullshxx! Must be careful

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 26 2014, 04:24 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 26 2014, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 26 2014, 04:56 PM)
Thank you very detail elobration.. planning to do this but thank you.. agent and investors know THIS LONG TIME..  but they just dun care..

affordability never dies as long as the market is targeting them previously working low middle vlass now uppet middle classs... I tink in bank.. manager level only get how much 6k.. lawyer of 6 years pracyice with very good skill only maybe can get 8 k.. these agent will humiliate u.. say so many ppl eatn more money.. just u cant afford ( part of the  commission contribiuted by us)

God bless we are not the lone ranger after all
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Many lawyers are jobless indeed
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 02:45 AM)
No ... that's not what subprime means.
SUBPRIME in USA are category of ppl NOT qualified to get house loans. Not just bankrupt. It's bcoz banks in USA got a plan to reduce their risk from subprime borrowers with MBS (mortgage backed securities). They sell this MBS to other investors hence "transferring" the risk. With MBS, they also "average" out the risk bcoz it's a mixed of subprime and prime borrowers.

So in Msia ... are there ppl NOT qualified to get loans, getting loans. YES. They are consider SUBPRIME.
Ppl who uses  REFINANCING to buy another property with 10% downpayment. They refinance one property to buy 2 properties. And then they flip these property to make a huge profit margin. The process repeats until they are holding more and more properties. This is ONLY good when the market is in BULL mode.

Some even quit their day job doing this, living on rents. So their credit worthiness is compromised when they quit their jobs. Basically putting ALL in one basket .... Property basket. They also moved themselves frm PRIME to SUBPRIME category. The Msian banks may be prudent in their loans approval but borrowers were not. They think good times will keep rolling and property prices NEVER drop....  whistling.gif
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I hv a 70% loan with a bank, my property has gone up 67% now, I try to refinance my property with new valuation but it was rejected, bank says my income cannot support a higher loan. I try 2 banks
It is not easy to refinance as claimed by you
My LTV stands at 43% now

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 27 2014, 07:56 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 27 2014, 07:57 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jan 27 2014, 07:53 AM)
ya lo.. many ppl said property will crash in 2013 kau kau.. but it is up 5-10% again... paper gain only la  hmm.gif

2014.... juz focus on stock market movement n prop interest... if something big changes, then prop market will be impact.  biggrin.gif
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Sampool tk, where is yr buddy? Gold TK?

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post Jan 27 2014, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 27 2014, 08:22 AM)
Is it that difficult to google "Subprime mortgage crisis" ?
How to define subprime in USA ?
FICO score
BNM strict rulings and CCRIS checks essentially is the malaysia version of FICO. I suspect the current stringent of credit granting has cause the score to move to the 90s.
1. Payment history - those "0s" in CCRIS report
2. Credit utilisation - have you repaid down the outstanding loans. How many years to go
3. Length of credit history - to determine whether you are good paymaster
4. Types of credit used - list down the CC, car loan, personal loan, property loan
5. Recent searches for credit - all your existing application (not yet approved) are reflected in CCRIS

On top of that, BNM also has LTV 90%/70%, net income ruling, top up loan limited to 10 years, personal loan limited to 10 years etc

You guys judge for yourself if there is any resemblance of malaysian property loan to US subprime mortgage
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If Malaysia property crash 50%/70%, "Subprime" is still not an appropriate word to be named
IMO, correct word is "Property market bubble and crisis"

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 27 2014, 09:08 AM
SUSUFO-ET
post Jan 27 2014, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 27 2014, 10:11 AM)
Actually subprime or not subprime refers to ones ability to repay.. if subprime (based on the above) is not a similar model to malaysia(claimed by many here)...  that does not negate the fact that investors / flippers who hold prop in vacant mode will get burn.. correct or not..

Why suddenly malaysian in banking sector are as good as singaporean as we speak?..  no loop holes.. no bribe.. loan officet no sales target.. all loan approve to flippers are good all pass stringent test .. then no need worry di.. storm come also no problem... just dat u making a lost in investment right..
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I really doubt you hv borrowed money fr banks before, IMO Malaysia banks are more conservative than Singapore's bank
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post Jan 27 2014, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jan 27 2014, 10:36 AM)
I was countering people who wants to keeps harping about subprime subprime subprime and how similar to US we are when Malaysia is nowehere close. Sometimes DDDs are annoying like to twist peoples words. That bankrupt was an example because it cant happen in Malaysia.
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Biasalah...
A few hardcore DDD always say "UUU camp says market always up, forever up and no corrections"
p/s : I damn miss the GOLD fella lah, he knows m goin to screw him for th PIGS (Euro crisis)
biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Jan 27 2014, 10:46 AM

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